Russia may initiate various provocations on NATO’s borders, and Lithuania should expect aggressive rhetoric from the Kremlin, says Darius Jauniškis, head of the State Security Department (VSD).
“We can see that the Kremlin is preparing for a long-term confrontation with the West and has quite a wide range of means and instruments, which it will undoubtedly use to reduce Western support for Ukraine,” he told reporters after the State Defence Council meeting on Tuesday.
“Of course, information and cyber operations will be used, which is what we are observing at the moment, and nuclear blackmail is one of those means,” Jauniškis added.
According to the VSD chief, incidents on the territory of NATO countries, initiated by Russia, cannot be ruled out either. More active pressure from the Kremlin on the Kaliningrad region is also likely, he said.
“They see Kaliningrad as their weak spot. Undoubtedly, aggressive rhetoric can be expected from them towards Lithuania in particular regarding the situation in Kaliningrad,” Jauniškis aid.
Colonel Elegijus Paulavičius, director of the Second Operational Services Department, said that the Kremlin regime’s main priority at the moment is not to lose the war in Ukraine. That is why it is now deploying the largest forces there, and the number of Russian ground forces on the NATO borders, including Lithuania, is significantly reduced.
“However, other components of the Russian army, such as the navy, air force, air defence, remain largely unabated in the region,” he said.
According to Paulavičius, Russia aims to rebuild its diminished capabilities on its borders with NATO and is therefore planning a long-term buildup.
“Russia is carrying out two processes at the same time: it is mobilising resources towards Ukraine and at the same time it is building new capacities for a long-term confrontation with the West,” he said.
The VSD chief Jauniškis also pointed out that the security situation is being negatively affected by the conflict in the Middle East, and that tensions from the region are spreading to Europe.
“The threat of terrorism in Europe is likely to grow, and we are not protected against it either,” he said.
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