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useTi da saqarTvelo:<br />

gamosavlis ZiebaSi<br />

qarTveli da rusi eqspertebis mier SemuSavebuli<br />

sazogadoebrivi politikis sarekomendacio dokumentebi<br />

2011<br />

proeqti dafinansebulia<br />

evrokavSiris mier

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პროექტის დირექტორი: კახა გოგოლაშვილი<br />

პროექტის კორდინატორი: ქეთევან ემუხვარი<br />

mTargmneli: რუსუდან მარგიშვილი<br />

teqnikuri redaqtori: არტიომ მელიქ-ნუბაროვი<br />

tiraJi: 250<br />

winamdebare gamocemaSi Tavmoyrili dokumentebis Sinaarsze pasuxismgebelia<br />

saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fondi.<br />

gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ar asaxavs evrokavSirisa da gaeros ganviTarebis<br />

programis Tvalsazriss.<br />

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis<br />

kvlevis fondi<br />

ISBN 978-9941-0-3872-3

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S i n a a r s i<br />

winasityvaoba<br />

kaxa gogolaSvili…………………………………………………………………<br />

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebi evropuli usafrTxoebis<br />

konteqstSi<br />

Tengiz fxalaZe<br />

nikolai silaevi…………………………………………….……….….…………<br />

CrdiloeTi kavkasia qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis<br />

konteqstSi<br />

Tornike SaraSeniZe<br />

ivan suxovi………………………………….………………………………………<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobaTa evolucia<br />

postsabWoTa periodSi: ganvlili gza da perspeqtivebi<br />

vladimer papava……………………………………………………………………<br />

saqarTvelos ekonomikis saerTaSoriso pozicionireba:<br />

moskovidan danaxuli perspeqtivebi<br />

boris frumkini……………………………………………………………………<br />

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis mogvarebis perspeqtivebi<br />

giorgi Tarxan-mouravi……………...……………………………………..……<br />

modus vivendi: ga<strong>for</strong>mebis variantebi<br />

<strong>and</strong>rei zagorski……………………………………….………………...…..……<br />

ori oseTi qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis konteqstSi<br />

ivliane xaindrava…………………………………………………………………<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi arsebuli humanitaruli<br />

sakiTxebis mogvarebis SesaZleblobebi<br />

aleqs<strong>and</strong>re skakovi…………………………..…………………………..………<br />

5<br />

7<br />

28<br />

64<br />

80<br />

98<br />

117<br />

131<br />

148

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w i n a s i t y v a o b a<br />

es krebuli ndobis aRdgenis proeqtis _ „meore bilikis“ _ farglebSi gamoica. masSi<br />

warmodgenilia qarTveli da rusi avtorebis politikis sarekomendacio dokumentebi,<br />

romlebic qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis yvelaze aqtualur da mtkivneul aspeqtebs<br />

ganixilaven.<br />

qveynebs Soris urTierTobebis istoriaSi dgeba momentebi, rodesac politikosebsa da<br />

diplomatebs aRar rCebaT arc manevris saSualeba da arc sakmarisi resursi, rom rame<br />

Secvalon. maSin, rodesac ori dapirispirebuli saxelmwifos urTierToba an<br />

daZabulobis xarisxis zrdis mimarTulebiT moZraobs, an gayinul fazaSi Cerdeba,<br />

oficialuri pirebis ritorika da qmedeba ZiriTadad Sidapolitikur propag<strong>and</strong>as an<br />

sagareo asparezze mowinaaRmdege mxaris poziciebis Sesustebas emsaxureba. rac ufro<br />

izrdeba daZabuloba, miT ufro bevri SezRudva da tabu Cndeba oficialuri<br />

pirebisaTvis, maT ar aqvT ufleba eWvi Seitanon Tavisi qveynis poziciaSi, mousminon da<br />

ar Seedavon sawinaaRmdego mxares, rodesac is meore situacias Tavisi qveynis<br />

sasargeblod warmoadgens saerTaSorso organizaciasa Tu molaparakebebis<br />

magidasTan.<br />

da mainc, yvelasTvis gasagebia, rom, miuxedavad aseTi savalalo viTarebisa,<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>el epoqaSi SeuZlebelia urTierTobebis sruli gawyveta. ekonomikuri<br />

intersebi, adamianuri kavSirebi, saerTo safrTxeebi da sxva gvaiZulebs vifiqroT<br />

gamosavalze, veZioT gzebi da SesaZleblobebi.<br />

konfliqti ganyenebulad ar arsebobs. is sazogadoebaSia gaSlili. yalibdeba,<br />

viTardeba da Tavs imkvidrebs sazogadobriv Sexedulebebsa da ganwyobebSi. or qveyanas<br />

an konfliqtis or subieqts Soris ganxeTqileba swored imitomaa mdgradi, rom igi or<br />

sazogadoebaSi izolirebulad yalibdeba, urTierTSeuTavsebeli warmodgenebisa da<br />

interesebis saxiT da rac ufro izrdeba izolireba, miT ufro mcirdeba sivrce<br />

konfliqtis mogvarebisaTvis.<br />

ar aris gamoricxuli, rom oficialuri wreebi orive mxares cdilobdnen raime<br />

urTierTmisaRebi <strong>for</strong>mulebis SemuSavebas, radganac grZelvadiani konfliqti ar<br />

SeiZleba ar asustebdes Tunadac Zalze Zlier saxelmwifosac ki. magram maTi<br />

SezRuduli mdgomareoba ar iZleva, rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, fantaziis farTod<br />

gaSlis SesaZleblobas. es miuxedavad imisa, rom swored oficialur pirebs esmiT<br />

yvelaze kargad arsebuli konfliqtis arsi da misi detalebi. ufro farTo da<br />

Tavisufali xedva, rogorc wesi, viTardeba saeqsperto sazogadoebis wiaRSi, magram<br />

azrebi xSirad naklebad iTvaliswinebs politikur realobas da scdeba gadaulaxavi<br />

imperativebis sazRvrebs. samagierod, damoukidebel eqspertTa azrebis Sejereba<br />

ufro SesaZlebelia, vidre oficialuri poziciisa. aq, pirvel rigSi, vgulisxmobT<br />

konfliqtis meore mxaresa da iq moqmed Zalebs _ mTavrobebs, politikur partiebs,<br />

samoqalaqo sazogadoebas.<br />

inteleqtualuri Zalisxmevis gareSe SeuZlebelia gamosavlis povna iseTi rTuli<br />

mdgomareobidan, rogorSic ara marto saqarTvelo, aramed ruseTic aRmoCnda<br />

agvistos omis Sedegad. magram inteleqtualuri produqti, romelic am problemis (an<br />

Tanmxlebi problemebis) mogvarebis gzebs gviCvenebda, konfliqtis orive subieqtis<br />

„masalisgan“ unda damzaddes, orives gemovnebas unda moergos da orive „bazris“<br />

moTxovnebi unda daakmayofilos.<br />

vfiqrobT, saqarTveloSi ruseTs srulad aravin icnobs; isic viciT, rom arc ruseTSi<br />

icnoben saqarTvelos kargad. swored amitom am ori qveynis eqspertebma, maT, visac<br />

gulwrfelad unda gamosavlis povna, unda iswavlon erTad muSaoba, erTmaneTis<br />

mosmena da erTmaneTisgan imis gageba, Tu ra surs, ras miiRebs da ras _ ara meore mxare.<br />

Cveni proeqtis amocana, pirvel rigSi, swored aseTi urTierTobis Camoyalibebis<br />

precedentisa da magaliTis Cveneba iyo. Cven stambolSi erTad SevkribeT rusi da<br />

qarTveli eqspertebi. pirveli Sexvedris dros SevecadeT gamogveyo is ZiriTadi<br />

Temebi, sadac qarTul-rusuli interesebi an dadebiT, an uaryofiT konteqstSi<br />

5

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ikveTeba da SevecadeT erTmaneTisTvis Cveni poziciebi gagveziarebina. ganxilvis<br />

procesSi movniSneT is Temebi, romelTa Semdgomi damuSavebac saintereso unda<br />

yofiliyo mTlianad samSvidobo procesis (farTo gagebiT) gasamdidreblad. orma<br />

rusma da orma qarTvelma eqspertma gamoTqva survili erToblivad daeweraT<br />

politikis dokumenti. Cven aseve davamuSaveT ori iseTi Tema, romelzec miviReT<br />

qarTveli da rusi eqspertebis mier warmodgenili gansxvavebuli xedvebi. danarCenma<br />

orma eqspertma ki gansxvavebuli Temebi daamuSava da warmoadgina.<br />

meore Sexvedraze gaimarTa diskusia momzadebuli politikis dokumentebis garSemo.<br />

sagangebod SevarCieT politikuri analizis ori gamocdili eqsperti, romlebmac<br />

warmodgenili TemebisaTvis winaswar SeimuSaves komentarebi da amiT diskusiisaTvis<br />

myari safuZveli da motivacia Seqmnes.<br />

gansakuTrebul faseulobas warmoadgens is, rom politikis dokumentebi arc erT<br />

SemTxvevaSi ar emyareba mxolod erTi mxaris ideebsa da interess. isini eqskluziurad<br />

arc erTi konkretuli mxaris mTavrobis an sxva sazogadoebrivi elementebisTvisaa<br />

gankuTvnili. maTi rekomendaciebis adresatebi rogorc qarTuli, aseve rusuli<br />

mxarebia, yvela doneze da sazogadoebis yvela dainteresebul wreSi. maTi wyalobiT<br />

qarTul-rusuli konfliqtis gadawyvetaSi dainteresebuli saerTaSoriso<br />

organizaciebi da sxva saerTaSoriso moTamaSeebi aseve gaecnobian sasargeblo<br />

mosazrebebsa da rCevebs.<br />

minda xazi gavusva im faqts, rom proeqti ganxorcielda evrokavSiris finansuri<br />

mxardaWeriT da aRvniSno is Zalisxmeva, romelsac igi gaiRebs mSvidobis<br />

damyarebisTvis Cvens regionsa da mTel msoflioSi.<br />

minda madloba gadavuxado gaeros ganviTarebis programis proeqtis „kobermis“ gunds,<br />

romlis administrirebiT da sruli da efeqtiani xelSewyobiT xorcieldeboda Cveni<br />

proeqti.<br />

Cvenma partniorma organizaciam ruseTSi _ „karnegis moskovis centrma“<br />

fasdaudebeli daxmareba gagviwia rusi eqspertebis gundis SerCevasa da mobilizebaSi.<br />

minda gansakuTrebulad movixsenio am centris mkvlevari <strong>and</strong>rei riabovi, romelTanac<br />

nayofieri TanamSromloba gvakavSirebda proeqtis TiTqmis yvela fazis msvlelobisas.<br />

minda aseve didi madliereba gamovxato yvela qarTveli da rusi monawilis mimarT,<br />

romlebmac orive Sexvedris dros gamoiCines ar marto profesionalizmi, aramed<br />

didsulovneba, keTilSobileba da urTierTpativiscema.<br />

aseve minda madliereba gamovTqva ori afxazi eqspertis mimarT, romlebic<br />

dagvTanxmdnen monawileoba mieRoT Cvens SexvedraSi.<br />

aqve minda madlierebiT movixsenio isini, vinc proeqtis sxvadasxva etapze rCevebiTa da<br />

aqtiuri TanamSromlobiT xeli Seuwyves Cveni proeqtis ganxorcielebas: mixeil<br />

mirziaSvili, sabina fiSeri, arda inal-ifa, arCil gegSiZe, ekaterine mesxrikaZe.<br />

dabolos, minda aRvniSno Cveni fondis TanamSromlebis, pirvel rigSi ki qeTevan<br />

emuxvaris, Rvawli, romlebic Zalas da energias ar iSurebdnen proeqtis miznebis<br />

ganxorcielebisaTvis.<br />

6<br />

kaxa gogolaSvili<br />

proeqtis direqtori

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qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebi evropuli usafrTxoebis<br />

konteqstSi<br />

7<br />

Tengiz fxalaZe<br />

geopolitikuri kvlevebis<br />

saerTaSoriso centris xelmZRvaneli<br />

nikolai silaevi<br />

istoriis mecnierebaTa k<strong>and</strong>idati,<br />

moskovis saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis<br />

saxelmwifo institutis kavkasiuri kvlevebis centris<br />

ufrosi mecnier-TanamSromeli<br />

me-20 saukuneSi, evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemis Seqmnisas, monawile—<br />

saxelmwifoebis mizani iyo im samomavlo konfliqtebis Tavidan arideba,<br />

romlebic SeiZleba ganviTarebuliyo evropuli qveynebis omisSemdgom<br />

sazRvrebTan dakavSirebiT. xangrZlivi konsultaciebisa da molaparakebebis<br />

Semdeg miRebul iqna evropis usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis helsinkis<br />

TaTbiris daskvniTi aqti (1975 w.), rac safuZvlad daedo im droisaTvis<br />

usafrTxoebis Tvisobrivad axal sistemas, romelic iTvaliswinebda msoflio<br />

politikis sxvadasxva polusisa da sabWoTa da dasavleTis blokebs Soris<br />

dapirispirebis arsebobas.<br />

`civi omis~ damTavrebasTan erTad Seicvala evropuli usafrTxoebis<br />

gamowvevebisa da safrTxeebis xasiaTic, gafarTovda masSi monawileTa wre,<br />

Sesabamisad Seicvala amocanebic. dReisaTvis arsebuli urTierTobebiT,<br />

helsinkis aqtis ZiriTad monawileebs _ didi britaneTs, germanias, ruseTs,<br />

aSS-s, safrangeTs _ Soris, pirdapiri SeiaraRebuli dapirispirebis albaToba<br />

nuls utoldeba (Tumca 2008 wlis agvistos movlenebma garkveulad Searyia am<br />

debulebis siswore amerika-ruseTis urTierTobebis TvalsazrisiT). aqedan<br />

gamomdinare, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom evropuli usafrTxoebis realuri<br />

gamowvevebi mdebareobs kontinentis saerTaSoriso masStabis dRis wesrigis<br />

Semqmneli umsxvilesi saxelmwifoebis urTierTobaTa farglebs miRma da<br />

gamoixateba umsxvilesi saxelmwifoebis mesame qveynebTan urTierTobis<br />

konteqstSi. amasTan, arsebobs mosazreba, rom mesame qveynebTan urTierTobebis<br />

problemebi aris Sedegi im uTanxmoebebisa da winaaRmdegobebisa, rac uZlieres<br />

moTamaSeTa urTierTobebSi arsebobs.<br />

asea Tu ise, es gamowvevebi Tavs iyris an centralur Tu aRmosavleT evropaSi<br />

(naklebad), an postsabWoTa sivrceSi (ZiriTadad). am regionis qveynebi (ruseTis<br />

federaciis gamoklebiT) evropuli usafrTxoebis diskursSi ganixilebian ara<br />

mxolod rogorc Semoqmedi, aramed rogorc am usafrTxoebis momxmareblebic.<br />

Sedegad, diskusia warmoiSoba an abstraqtuli da praqtikulad aranairi<br />

valdebulebis warmomqmneli Tezisebis ganxilvisas, an garkveuli<br />

ara<strong>for</strong>maluri molaparakebebis SemoTavazebebSi, Tanac es ukanaskneli<br />

centraluri da aRmosavleT evropis qveynebsa da postsabWoTa sivrceSi iwvevs<br />

SiSs, rom uZlieresi saxelmwifoebi SeTanxmdebian maT zurgs ukan, rac<br />

istoriis manZilze araerTxel momxdara. kontinentis masStabiT periferiul<br />

sakiTxebSi azrTa sxvadasxvaoba xels uSlis evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemis<br />

mimarT konsolidirebuli midgomebis Camoyalibebas, xolo evropuli<br />

usafrTxoebis sistemis mimarT konsolidirebuli midgomebis deficiti win<br />

eRobeba periferiuli sakiTxebis mogvarebas.

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es winaaRmdegoba evropuli usafrTxoebis sferoSi aCens stabilur<br />

gaurkvevlobas. natos gafarToeba droebiT SeCerebulia. im qveynebisaTvis ki,<br />

romlebsac undaT aliansSi Sesvla, magram jerjerobiT mis miRma rCebian, ar<br />

momxdara usafrTxoebis alternatiuli da misaRebi garantiebis SeTavazeba.<br />

SeCerebulia evropaSi amerikuli raketsawinaaRmdego Tavdacvis sistemebis<br />

ganTavsebis im proeqtis realizacia, romelic ruseTis yvelaze did<br />

gaRizianebas iwvevda, Tumca sxva proeqtebTan dakavSirebuli diskusiebis<br />

dasasrulic gaurkvevelia. SeiniSneba Tanxvedra postsabWoTa sivrcis zogierT<br />

lokalur konfliqtTan (mTiani yarabaRi) dakavSirebul midgomebSi, xolo<br />

sxvasTan dakavSirebiT (afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan) _ uTanxmoeba da<br />

winaaRmdegobebi. magram konfliqtis mogvarebis mxriv mniSvnelovani winsvla<br />

ar SeiniSneba. daZabulobis donis aSkara kleba evropis kontinentis (magram ara<br />

lokaluri konfliqtebis zonebSi) masStabebSi msxvili moTamaSeebis keTil<br />

nebas ufro emyareba, vidre institucionalur safuZvels.<br />

2008 wlis agvistos movlenebma, aseve postsabWoTa sivrcis sxva konfliqtebma<br />

naTlad dagvanaxa, rom evropuli usafrTxoebis arsebuli sistema<br />

arasakmarisad efeqturia amgvari safrTxeebis pervenciisaTvis. ufro metic,<br />

evropis sabWos ori wevri-saxelmwifos (ruseTisa da saqarTvelos)<br />

dapirispirebis faqtic ki usafrTxoebis arsebuli sistemis Rrma krizisze<br />

metyvelebs.<br />

uaxloes wlebSi ruseTsa da saqarTvelos mouwevT usafrTxoebis sakuTari<br />

politikis ageba saerTo-evropuli gaurkvevlobebis pirobebSi. es ki ver<br />

iqoniebs mniSvnelovan gavlenas maTi politikis miznebsa da prioritetebze,<br />

TumcaRa, albaT, Sesworebebs Seitans maT strategiebSi.<br />

winamdebare statia warmoadgens mcdelobas, rom SevadginoT saqarTvelosa da<br />

ruseTis erovnuli usafrTxoebis interesTa saerTo CamonaTvali, gamovkveToT<br />

arsebuli winaaRmdegobebi, vaCvenoT problemebis `rusuli~ da `qarTuli~<br />

xedva, ganvsazRvroT maTi mniSvneloba saerTo-evropuli usafrTxoebisaTvis<br />

da ganvixiloT, ramdenad savaraudoa maTi mogvarebis dawyeba. `rusuli<br />

interesebisa da Sexedulebebis~, aseve `qarTuli interesebisa da<br />

Sexedulebebis~ <strong>for</strong>mulirebisas veyrdnobiT rogorc mxareTa oficialur<br />

poziciebs, aseve samecniero da analitikur wreebSi gavrcelebul<br />

Sexedulebebsa da Sefasebebs, rasac gavlena aqvs sazogadoebrivi azris<br />

Camoyalibebaze.<br />

ruseTis interesebi evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemaSi<br />

aucileblad unda aRiniSnos, rom usafrTxoebis sferoSi erovnuli<br />

ineteresebis <strong>for</strong>mulireba, TavisTavad, nebismier qveyanaSi warmoadgens<br />

politikuri diskusiis sagans da am mxriv arc ruseTia gamonaklisi. ar unda<br />

dagvabnios iman, rom ruseTSi am sakiTxebTan dakavSirebuli diskusia sajaro ar<br />

aris. usafrTxoebis politikis arsebiT sakiTxebTan dakavSirebuli rusuli<br />

saxelmwifo konceptualuri Ria dokumentebis Tezisebi gamoirCeva erTgvari<br />

bundovanebiT, rac amgvari dokumentebis momzadebis susti tradiciiT aixsneba.<br />

am nawilSi SevecadeT warmogvedgina ruseTis erovnuli uSiSroebis im<br />

interesebis CamonaTvali, romelTa mixedviTac, Cveni azriT,<br />

mniSvnelovanwilad miRweulia Sida konsensusi da romlebic xorcieldeba<br />

saxelmwifo politikis praqtikaSi.<br />

miuxedavad xasiaTisa, romelsac drois calkeul monakveTebSi iRebda ruseTis<br />

oficialuri ritorika, uaxlesi istoriis manZilze moskovs arasodes ucdia<br />

dasavleTisagan da, miT umetes, evrokavSiridan izolireba. Tumca rusuli<br />

8

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politikuri klasisaTvis principul sakiTxebs warmoadgens is pirobebi,<br />

romelTa safuZvelzec xdeba ruseTis integracia globalur ekonomikur da<br />

politikur sistemaSi. usafrTxoebis sferoSi es pirobebi gulisxmobs moskovis<br />

mier ZalTa erT-erTi globaluri centris (da ara zesaxelmwifos) statusis<br />

faqtobriv mopovebasa da mxardaWeras, rasac <strong>for</strong>malurad uzrunvelyofs misi<br />

mudmivi wevroba gaeros uSiSroebis sabWoSi. evropuli usafrTxoebis<br />

sistemidan ruseTis izolaciis SemTxvevaSi ver moxerxdeba am miznis miRweva.<br />

kritikosebi miuTiTeben ruseTis natosTan dakavSirebuli poziciis<br />

winaaRmdegobriv xasiaTze, rac dafiqsirebulia 2009 wlis maisis `2020 wlamde<br />

erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiaSi~ (moskovi mzadaa iTanamSromlos<br />

aliansTan, Tumca mis gafarToebas miuReblad miiCnevs) 1 . es winaaRmdegoba<br />

moCvenebiTia. ruseTis TvalsazrisiT, ukrainisa da saqarTvelos natos wevroba<br />

iqneba gadamwyveti nabiji evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemidan misi izolirebis<br />

saqmeSi. ubralo geografiuli logikis gamo izolaciis saSiSroeba<br />

warmoiqmneba aliansisa da masSi Semavali qveynebis miznebisa da<br />

gancxadebebisgan damoukideblad: Savi zRvidan baltiis zRvamde ruseTi<br />

mudmivad iqneba natos qveynebTan SexebaSi, belorusis gamoklebiT, romlis<br />

grZelvadiani stabilurobac sakmaod saeWvoa; Savi zRva faqtobrivad<br />

gadaiqceva `Crdiloatlantikur tbad~. am viTarebaSi naklebdamajerebelia<br />

natos Sida krizisze laparakic, radgan swored ruseTis izolacia SeiZleba<br />

gaxdes is integraciuli idea, romelic esaWiroeba alianss. sxvagvarad rom<br />

vTqvaT, nato dRev<strong>and</strong>el pirobebSi ar aRiqmე ba mowinaaRmdeged, magram<br />

`gafarToebuli nato~ SeiZleba iqces mowinaaRmdeged. aRwerili scenari<br />

namdvilad yvelaze uaresia, magram usafrTxoebis politikis dagegmvisas<br />

bunebrivia yvelaze uaresi scenaridan amosvla.<br />

ruseTis natoSi gawevrianeba, rac aqtiurad ganixileboda gasul wels,<br />

naklebsarwmunoa, radgan iseT problemebs aCens, romelTa mogvarebac arc<br />

moskovs ZaluZs da arc _ briusels. CamovTvliT zog am problemas: pirveli _<br />

niSnavs Tu ara ruseTis wevroba aliansSi imas, rom aliansi iZleva<br />

usafrTxoebis garantiebs ruseT-CineTis sazRvarze? meore _ rogori iqneba<br />

ruseTis natoSi miRebis pirobebi, moicavs, magaliTad, ubralo samxedroteqnikur<br />

integracias (rac TavisTavad sakmaod xarjiania) Tu aliansi<br />

wamoayenebs ruseTis sagareo politikasTan dakavSirebul moTxovnebs? mesame<br />

_ rogor gadawydeba natos wevrobis sakiTxi postsabWoTa sivrcis im<br />

qveynebisaTvis, romlebic dReisaTvis ar arian natos wevrebi an Sedian<br />

koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizaciaSi? meoTxe _<br />

SenarCundeba Tu ara natoSi gadawyvetilebis erTxmad miRebis principi, roca<br />

amaSi monawileobas miiRebs ruseTic? mexuTe _ rogor gadawydeba rusulqarTuli<br />

urTierTobebis problema, Tuki ruseTi Seva natoSi? TurqulberZnuli<br />

urTierTobaTa analogia aq araaqtualuria, radgan ankaram da aTenma<br />

faqtobrivad miiRes amerikuli arbitraJi. ruseTisaTvis saqarTvelosTan<br />

1 mogvyavs am dokumentSi Camoyalibebuli azri: `Crdiloatlantikuri xelSekrulebis<br />

organizaciasTan urTierTobis ganmsazRvrel faqtorad darCeba aliansis samxedro<br />

infrastruqturis ruseTisaTvis miuRebeli gegmebi _ misi gafarToeba ruseTis sazRvrebis<br />

mimarTulebiT da amisTvis globaluri funqciis miniWebis mcdeloba, rac mkveTrad<br />

ewinaaRmdegeba saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebs. ruseTi mzadaa Crdiloatlantikuri<br />

xelSekrulebis organizaciasTan urTierTobis gasaviTareblad, Tanasworuflebianobisa da<br />

evroatlantikur regionSi sayovelTao usafrTxoebis gaZlierebis mizniT, oRond am<br />

urTierTobis siRrme da Sinaarsi ganisazRvreba imis mixedviT, ramdenad mzadaa aliansi,<br />

mxedvelobaSi miiRos ruseTis kanonieri interesebi samxedro-politikuri gegmebis dawyobisas,<br />

ramdenad iTvaliswinebs saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebs da aseve, maT Semdgom<br />

trans<strong>for</strong>maciasa da humanitaruli mimarTulebiT axali amocanebisa da funqciebis Ziebas~.<br />

9

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dakavSirebiT aseTi arbitraJi miuRebelia, radgan es eWvqveS ayenebs mis,<br />

rogorc globaluri Zalebis erT-erT centris, statuss.<br />

am mizezTa gamo ruseTis inetresebi evropuli usafrTxoebis sferoSi moicavs<br />

natosTan da paralelurad mis umsxviles evropel wevrebTan (germania,<br />

safrangeTi, didi britaneTi, italia, poloneTi) urTierTobis ganviTarebas<br />

ise, rom win aRudges aliansis gafarToebas aRmosavleTisaken da miaRwios imas,<br />

rom natom im regionebSi, sadac imyofeba, partniorad aRiaros koleqtiuri<br />

usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizacia. aRsaniSnavia, rom moskovi mzadaa<br />

umsxviles evropul qveynebTan _ natos calkeul wevrebTan, da ara mTel<br />

aliansTan, urTierTobaSi waiwios win da mWidro samxedro-teqnikuri<br />

TanamSromlobamde da ekonomikis strategiulad mniSvnelovan dargebSi<br />

aliansis Seqmnamdec ki mivides.<br />

postsabWoTa sivrceSi ruseTis interesebi gamoixateba uaxloes mezoblebTan<br />

iseTi urTierTobebis SenarCunebiT, rogoric ki ar daabrkolebda, aramed<br />

daexmareboda kidec misi interesebis ganxorcielebas evropuli da globalri<br />

usafrTxoebis sferoSi. ruseTi cdilobs, rom postsabWoTa sivrcis samxedropolitikur<br />

sferoSi SeinarCunos ZiriTadi moTamaSis roli, aseve _<br />

SeinarCunos da gaafarTovos Tavisi ekonomikuri gavlena yofili sabWoTa<br />

kavSiris qveynebze. amiT iyo nakarnaxevi moskovis swrafva, Tavidan aecilebina<br />

dsT-is qveynebSi aSS-is mudmivi samxedro yofna, aseve _ misi interesi<br />

sxvadasxva xasiaTis integraciuli proeqtebis _ evraziis ekonomikuri<br />

Tanamegobroba, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizacia, sabaJo<br />

kavSiri, erTiani ekonomikuri sivrce _ mimarT. rusuli integraciuli<br />

politikis zogadi tendencia gulisxmobs am politikis motivaciis radikalur<br />

cvlilebas: Tuki gasuli saukunis 90-ian wlebSi es iyo Sidapolitikuri<br />

mosazrebebiT nakarnaxebi (sazogadoebaSi arsebuli yofili erTianobis<br />

nostalgiis sapasuxod), DdReisaTvis nostalgia pragmatizmma gadasZala.<br />

postsabWoTa sivrceSi arsebuli ruseTis sagareo politikis sakmaod<br />

pragmatuli proeqtebi ar moqmedebs misi politikis winaaRmdegobriv bunebaze<br />

yofili sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebTan mimarTebiT, aseve _ am politikisaTvis<br />

damaxasiaTebel mizanSewonilobis deficitze. erTi mxriv, politikur klasSi<br />

sakmaod popularulia postsabWoTa sivrceSi ruseTis dominirebis idea. meore<br />

mxriv, gaurkveveli rCeba, ra safasurs gadaixdis ruseTi am dominirebisaTvis<br />

da rogori iqneba misi xarisxi<br />

da xasiaTi. axla mxolod is Cans, rom ruseTis politikuri klasis arc erTi<br />

gavleniani jgufi ar isaxavs miznad imperiis aRdgenas, anu yofili sabWoTa<br />

kavSiris qveynebisaTvis suverenitetis warTmevas, sxva mxriv ki dominirebis<br />

gageba Riaa farTod gaazrebisaTvis. dabolos, moskovi, rogorc gamocdileba<br />

aCvenebs, didi enTuziazmiT ar iRebs Tavis Tavze postsabWoTa sivrcis<br />

qveynebSi usafrTxoebis sferos mogvarebis valdebulebas, Tuki Seqmnili<br />

viTareba mas ar uqmnis pirdapir safrTxes.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom postsabWoTa sivrcis usafrTxoebis sferoSi arsebuli<br />

problemebi ruseTisaTvis ufro farToa, vidre aSS-Tan da natosTan<br />

urTierToba. swored yofili ssrk-is sivrceSi awydeba moskovi axal<br />

gamowvevebs usafrTxoebis sferoSi, rogoricaa narkotrafiki, ekologiuri<br />

safrTxeebi, aralegaluri migracia da a.S., rasac axla dasavleTis qveynebTan<br />

urTierTobaSi marginaluri xasiaTi aqvs.<br />

samxreT kavkasiaSi ruseTis usafrTxoebis sferos zogad `postsabWoTa~ dRis<br />

wesrigs samxreT kavkasiaSi arTulebs Zalovani dapirispirebis maRali done da<br />

10

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konfliqtis zonebSi saomari moqmedebebis ganaxlebis saSiSroeba. Tumca<br />

rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis arsebul mdgomareobas moskovi<br />

usafrTxoebis uSualo saSiSroebad ar ganixilavs (garda SeSfoTebisa,<br />

romelsac iwvevs saqarTvelos iseTi nabijebi, rasac ruseTi ganixilavs,<br />

rogorc CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi viTarebaSi Carevis mcdelobas). aRniSnuli<br />

usafrTxoebis sferoSi rusuli interesebis realizacias sxva mimarTulebebiT<br />

uqmnis an SeuZlia Seuqmnas iribi winaaRmdegobebi.<br />

dReisaTvis regionSi rusuli diplomatiis gansakuTrebuli Zalisxmeva<br />

iqiTkenaa mimarTuli, rom ar dauSvas sabrZolo moqmedebebis ganaxleba mTian<br />

yarabaRSi. es, humanitaruli mosazrebebis garda, ganpirobebulia imiT, rom<br />

axali omis dawyebis SemTxvevaSi moskovi SeiZleba aRmoCndes iseT<br />

mdgomareobaSi, rom an azerbaijanTan urTierTobebis msxverplad gaReba<br />

mouwios, an dauSvas koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizaciaSi<br />

partniorebis SemoTavazebul usafrTxoebis garantiebTan dakavSirebuli<br />

rwmenis kritikuli vardna. mTian yarabaRSi cecxlis Sewyvetis reJimis<br />

hipoTeturi darRvevis SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia viTarebis ganviTarebis iseTi<br />

scenarebi, rodesac ruseTi ar aRmoCndeba aseTi dramatuli arCevnis winaSe,<br />

Tumca misi mxridan gonivruli iqneboda sakuTari stategiis Camoyalibeba,<br />

sadac gaTvlili iqneboda yvelaze cudi scenaris ganviTarebis albaToba.<br />

saqarTvelosTan urTierTobis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareoba xels uSlis ruseTs<br />

efeqturad ganaviTaros urTierToba somxeTTan, rac obieqturad asustebs<br />

qveyanas, romelic ruseTisTvis umniSvnelovanesi partnioria regionSi.<br />

mTian yarabaRTan dakavSirebiT saerTaSoriso Suamavlebi emxrobian cecxlis<br />

ganuaxleblobis Taobaze konsolidirebul pozicias. es konfliqti ar<br />

warmoadgens SuamavalTa metoqeobis sababs, mis mogvarebasTan dakavSirebiT maT<br />

saerTo midgomebi aqvT. bolo aTwleulis manZilze ruseTma daabalansa<br />

sakuTari politika somxeTisa da azerbaijanis mimarTulebiT, rac exmareba mas<br />

ufro efeqturad ganaxorcielos Tavisi saSuamavlo misia. yovelive es<br />

gvaZlevs safuZvels vivaraudoT, rom mTian yarabaRSi viTarebis SesaZlo<br />

daZabva ar miva ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris daZabulobis eskalaciamde,<br />

rogorc es moxda 2008 wlis agvistoSi, samxreT oseTSi samxedro moqmedebebis<br />

ganaxlebis Semdeg.<br />

afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebiT ruseTisa da dasavleTis<br />

poziciebi radikalurad gansxvavdeba. amasTan, orive mxarem moaxerxa es<br />

uTanxmoebebi gaemijna urTierTobebis zogadi konteqstidan. aSS da nato<br />

acnobiereben, rom ar gaaCniaT ruseTze zegavlenis iseTi meqanizmebi, rac<br />

ruseTs uars aTqmevinebda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebaze. SeiniSneba<br />

garkveuli distancia aSS-isa da evrokavSiris midgomebs Soris or nawilobriv<br />

aRiarebul respublikasTan dakavSirebiT: evrokavSirma miiRo koncefcia<br />

`CarTuloba aRiarebis gareSe~, xolo aSS inarCunebs uwindebur mkacr pozicias.<br />

amJamad afxazeTsa da (an) samxreT oseTSi samxedro moqmedebebis ganaxlebas<br />

moskovi naklebsarwmuno scenarad miiCnevs. Tumca, omis patara albaToba<br />

aixsneba ara saqarTvelosa da mis yofil avtonomiebs Soris winaaRmdegobis<br />

simZafris klebiT, aramed ori respublikisTvis ruseTis mier micemuli<br />

usafrTxoebis garantiebiT. imis miuxedavad, rom rusi eqspertebis SefasebiT,<br />

2008 wlis agvistods Semdgom periodSi saqarTvelom sakuTari samxedro<br />

potencialis aRdgena da, SesaZloa, gazrdac SeZlo, igi afxazeTisTvis da<br />

samxreT oseTisTvis SeiaraRebuli SetakebisTvis mzad ar aris 2 . Teoriulad<br />

situacia SeiZleba Seicvalos, Tuki saqarTvelo SeZlebs gaaZlieros Tavisi<br />

2 Барабанов М.С, Лавров А.В, Целуйко В.А. Танки августа. М.: «Центр анализа стратегий и технологий», 2009, 92.<br />

11

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sahaero Tavdacva, romelic 2008 wels misi erT-erTi susti adgili aRmoCnda.<br />

Tumca, rom araferi vTqvaT did xarjebze, aSkaraa, rom qveyana sahaero<br />

Tavdacvis Tanamedrove sistemebs ver miiRebs aSS-is daxmarebis gareSe, es<br />

ukanaskneli ki amJamad saqarTvelosTvis iaraRis miwodebaze Tavs ikavebs.<br />

Seqmnil mdgomareobaSi ruseTi ZiriTad riskebs ara imdenad samxedro, aramed<br />

diplomatiur sferoSi xedavs. misi TvalsazrisiT safrTxe mdgomareobs<br />

evropaSi `agvistomdeli~ saerTaSoriso dRis wesrigis aRdgenis<br />

SesaZleblobaSi, rac gulisxmobs saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebis sakiTxis<br />

`magidaze dabrunebas~, aSS-is mxridan ruseTSi `demokratiis deficitis~ Temis<br />

`pedalirebas~, evropis sakvanZo moTamaSeebTan amJamad miRweuli<br />

TanamSromlobis donis Semcirebas, ukrainis politikaSi moskovTan<br />

konfrontaciaze orientirebuli Zalebis gaZlierebas. 2009 wlis maisSi<br />

saqarTveloSi natos wvrTvnebis Catarebaze rusuli diplomatiis mZafri<br />

reaqcia ganpirobebuli iyo swrafviT, ar daeSva `agvistomdeli~ dRis wesrigis<br />

simboluri reanimaciac ki.<br />

mTlianobaSi ruseTis da aSS-is, ruseTisa da evrokavSiris urTierTobebis<br />

xasiaTi situaciis amgvar ganviTarebas amJamad naklebsavaraudos xdis. barak<br />

obamas administraciisTvis ruseTis mimarTulebiT miRweuli `gadatvirTva~ mis<br />

erT-erT mcirericxovan, Tu ara erTaderT, sagareo-politikur warmatebad<br />

rCeba. ruseTis umsxviles saxelmwifoebTan urTierToba, 2007-2008 wlebTan<br />

SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad gamyarda. ruseTma gamoamJRavna axali mokavSireebis<br />

mozidvis efeqturi politikis gatarebis unari (rusul-polonuri Serigeba) da<br />

evropel partniorebTan moZvelebuli uTanxmoebebis mogvarebisTvis mzaoba<br />

(SeiniSneba rusul-britanuli daaxloeba). da mainc, rusul-qarTuli<br />

urTierTobis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli saxiT SenarCuneba Seicavs safrTxes, rom xelaxla<br />

wamoiWreba problemebis da winaaRmdegobebis is kompleqsi, romelmac evropaSi<br />

agvistos krizisi gamoiwvia.<br />

ramdenadac SegviZlia vimsjeloT, CrdiloeT kavkasiis situaciaSi<br />

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis SesaZlo Carevas moskovi ar ganixilavs faqtorad,<br />

romelmac SesaZloa am regionSi Seqmnil viTarebaze mniSvnelovani gavlena<br />

iqonios. garkveuli ar aris am Carevis xarisxi. ruseTis specsamsaxurebis<br />

gancxadeba saqarTvelos teritoriaze teroristebis momzadebis Sesaxeb<br />

samoqalaqo eqspertebis mxridan verifikacias ar eqvemdebareba. unda<br />

gaviTvaliswinoT, rom ukanaskneuli wlebis manZilze kavkasiaSi ganxorcielda<br />

ruseTis saxelmwifo sazRvris gamagrebis farTo da ZviradRirebuli programa<br />

da am sazRvris potenciuri SeRwevadoba mniSvnelovnad SeizRuda. CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis usafrTxoebisTvis saSiSroebis wyaroebs Sida xasiaTi aqvs, Tanac<br />

dRes teroristuli jgufebi ukve aRar saWiroeben gare saxsrebis mozidvas,<br />

radgan am saxsrebis mozidva gamoZalvis gziT iswavles.<br />

Tbilisis mxridan gakeTebul simbolur Jestebs _ CrdiloeT kavkasiis<br />

respublikebis mkvidrTaTvis vizebis gauqmebas da Cerqezuli Temis sajaro<br />

ganxilvis inicirebas, rac namdvilad iwvevs ruseTis mmarTveli wreebis<br />

nawilis garkveul gaRizianebas, naklebad SeuZlia raime gavlenis moxdena<br />

rusuli saxelmwifoebriobis mimarT regionis macxovreblebis loialobis<br />

doneze. vizebis gauqmebas praqtikuli mniSvneloba SeiZleba hqonoda im<br />

SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqarTvelo gaxdeboda CrdiloeT kavkasiidan SromiTi<br />

migraciis recipienti, risi albaTobac Zalian mcirea. rac Seexeba Cerqezul<br />

Temas da saqarTveloSi CrdiloeT kavkasiis problemebis farTo politikur<br />

ganxilvas CrdiloeT kavkasiis warmomadgenlebis monawileobiT, garkveuli<br />

gaugebrobebis Semdeg Caewera regionul elitebsa da federalur centrs Soris<br />

12

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vaWrobis tradiciul logikaSi, romelSic orive mxare Cveulad da<br />

Tavdajerebulad grZnobs Tavs.<br />

marTalia, rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareoba ar uqmnis<br />

saSiSroebas CrdiloeT kavkasiis usafrTxoebas, magram unda aRiniSnos, rom or<br />

qveyanas Soris regionis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofisken mimarTuli<br />

TanamSromlobis deficiti ukve mravali welia negatiur faqtors warmoadgens.<br />

saboloo jamSi, swored aseTi TanamSormlobis ararsebobam ubiZga ruseTs<br />

kavkasiaSi sazRvris gamagrebis ZviradRirebuli programis inicirebisken.<br />

Tanac, am programis garkveuli elementebis TbilisisaTvis gaumWvirvale<br />

reJimSi realizaciam moskovis mimarT Tbiliss EeWvebi aRuZra. kerZod, zogma<br />

qarTvelma eqspertma es programa kavkasionis mTavari qedis samxreT kalTebze<br />

rusuli jaris SesaZlo gadmosxmis gegmebs daukavSira.<br />

aqve SevniSnavT moskovisaTvis aseve mniSvnelovani erTi garemoebis Sesaxeb:<br />

ruseTSi gaazrebuli aqvT, rom saqarTvelos mTel teritoriaze, yofili<br />

avtonomiebis _ afxazeTis da samxreT oseTis _ gamoklebiT, saxelmwifo<br />

xelisuflebis efeqturi kontrolis uzurnvelyofa mixeil saakaSvilis<br />

reJimis realuri miRwevaa. SevardnaZis epoqaSi or saxelmwifos Soris<br />

terorizmTan brZolaSi da CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis<br />

saqmeSi TanamSromlobisTvis mTavar dabrkolebas amgvari kontrolis arqona<br />

warmoadgenda. saqarTveloSi masStaburma destabilizaciam SieZleba Seqmnas<br />

viTareba, romlis drosac teroristul jgufebs kavkasionis qedis CrdiloeTis<br />

mxridan Tavisuflad SeeZlebaT saqarTvelos teritoriis sakuTar bazebad<br />

gamoyeneba. meore mxriv, moskovis mier CrdiloeT kavkasiaze kontrolis<br />

dakargva da am regionis destabilizacia mniSvnelovnad gazrdis im safrTxeTa<br />

kompleqss, romlebTanac saqarTvelos uwevs Setakeba.<br />

saqarTvelos interesebi da misi roli evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemaSi<br />

evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemaSi saqarTvelos poziciam damoukideblobis 20<br />

wlis manZilze mniSvnelovani trans<strong>for</strong>macia ganicada. nabij-nabij<br />

`momxmarebeli saxelmwifodan~ saqarTvelo iqca qveyanad, romelsac sakuTari<br />

wvlili Seaqvs usafrTxoebis saerTo sistemaSi. kosovoSi, eraysa da avRaneTSi<br />

ganxorcielebul samSvidobo operaciebSi qarTveli samxedroebis<br />

monawileoba, maTi mzardi rolisa da raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT, amis naTeli<br />

magaliTia.<br />

garda amisa, iseTi proeqtebis realizaciis Sedegad, rogorebicaa baqo-<br />

Tbilisi-jeihani, baqo-Tbilisi-erzerumi, NABUCCO, TRACECA, WHITE STREAM<br />

da sxva, saqarTvelo umniSvnelovanesi satrasporto arteria da evropis<br />

energetikuli usafrTxoebis mniSvnelovani Semadgeneli xdeba. amitomac<br />

SesTavazes saqarTvelos 2010 wels oficialuri ganacxadi gaekeTebina<br />

evrokavSiris energetikul TanamegobrobaSi Sesvlaze 3 .<br />

evropuli da evroatlantikuri integraciis veqtori sakvanZo da<br />

ganmsazRvrelia saqarTvelos sagareo politikisTvis. teritoriuli<br />

mTlianobis arsebuli problemebis miuxedavad, saxelmwifos dasavlur<br />

orientacias alternativa ara aqvs.<br />

saqarTvelos natosTan urTerTobas safuZveli jer kidev 1992 wels Caeyara,<br />

rodesac saqarTvelo Crdiloatlantikuri TanamSromlobis sabWoSi (romelsac<br />

1997 wlidan evroatlantikuri partniorobis sabWo ewodeba) gawevri<strong>and</strong>a,<br />

3 ix. Statement by President Barroso following his meeting with Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia.<br />

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/afet/dv/02barroso_/02barroso_en.pdf<br />

13

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sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Sedegad damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg. 1994 wels<br />

saqarTvelos `mSvidobisTvis partniorobis~ programaSi da 1999 wels PRP<br />

(PARP) dagegmvisa da analizis procesSi monawileobam es TanamSromloba ufro<br />

gaaRrmava da gaafarTova.<br />

`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg ki saqarTveloSi kidev ufro seriozulad<br />

miudgnen re<strong>for</strong>mebis ganxorcielebis process, gansakuTrebiT IPAP-idan<br />

gamomdinare, romelic pirvelad saqarTvelom da natom 2004 wels Seadgines.<br />

2006 wlis seqtemeberSi saqarTvelos mieca saSualeba intensiuri dialogi<br />

daewyo sakuTari gegmebis Sesaxeb _ rom apirebda gamxdariyo natos wevri<br />

qveyana. 2008 wlis aprilSi buqarestSi, umaRles doneze gamarTul Sexvedraze,<br />

natos wevri qveynebis xelmZRvanelebma miaRwies SeTanxmebas, rom saqarTvelo<br />

gaxdeboda Crdiloatlantikuri kavSiris wevri, ris Semdegac daiwyo<br />

saqarTvelosTan intensiuri urTierTqmedebis periodi, raTa xeli moekidaT im<br />

gadauWreli sakiTxebisTvis, romlebic ukavSirdeboda saqarTvelos ganacxads<br />

natos wevrobis mosamzadebeli samoqmedo gegmis (MAP) miRebaze.<br />

amgvarad, evroatlantikuri integracia ar gaxlavT dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mmarTveli<br />

elitis `akviatebuli idea~, es aris saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gaazrebuli da<br />

Tavisufali arCevani, rac sabolood dadasturda kidec 2007 wlis<br />

plebiscitiT. Sesabamisad, es integracia qveynis erovnuli usafrTxoebis erTerT<br />

ZiriTad amocanas warmoadgens 4 .<br />

mTlianobaSi, rodesac vlaparakobT saqarTvelos erovnul interesebsa da<br />

erovnuli usafrTxoebis miznebze, SegviZlia gamovyoT Semdegi ZiriTadi<br />

Semadgenlebi:<br />

• qveynis suverenitetisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis uzrunvelyofa;<br />

• mdgradi ekonomikuri ganviTareba da energetikuli usafrTxoeba;<br />

• demokratiis ganviTareba, samoqalaqo sazogadoeba, kanonis uzenaesobis<br />

uzrunvelyofa da adamianis uflebebis dacva;<br />

• evraziuli tranzituli koridorisa da kavkasiis kulturulekonomikuri<br />

centris geopolitikuri funqciebis uzrunvelyofa.<br />

zemoT CamoTvlili erovnuli interesebidan gamomdinare amocanebis<br />

realizaciisTvis ZiriTad dabrkolebad saqarTvelo ganixilavs ruseTis<br />

federaciis pozicias da sakuTari usafrTxoebis winaSe arsebuli gamowvevebisa<br />

da safrTxeebis ZiriTad wyaros moskovSi xedavs.<br />

mocemuli poziciis gonivruli ganxilvisTvis oficialurma Tbilisma unda<br />

Seafasos realiebi, romlebic 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg gaCnda, da<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTis poziciebs Soris arsebul gansxvavebaTa xasiaTi.<br />

qarTuli mxaris oficialuri poziciis mixedviT, ruseTma saqarTvelos<br />

winaaRmdeg ganaxorciela samxedro agresia, moaxdina saqarTvelos de iure<br />

teritoriebis okupacia da qarTuli mosaxleobis eTnikuri wmenda. konfliqtis<br />

mizezi rusul-qarTuli politikuri winaaRmdegobaa, xolo qarTul-afxazuri<br />

da qarTul-osuri konfliqtebi mxolod misi Sedegia. Sesabamisad, upirveles<br />

amocanad qarTuli teritoriebis deokupacia warmoadgens.<br />

4 aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom es suraTi arc 2008 wlis Semdeg Secvlila, rasac adasturebs<br />

mravalricxovani sociologiuri gamokvleva, romlebsac atareben rogorc qarTuli, ise<br />

ucxouri da saerTaSoriso organizaciebi.<br />

14

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saqarTvelos xelisuflebis pozicias Seesabameba rigi saerTaSorisosamarTlebrivi<br />

aqtebisa, romelTaganac unda aRiniSnos 2008 wlis 12 agvistos<br />

SeTanxmeba cecxlis Sewyvetis Taobaze; 2008 wlis 1 seqtembris evrokavSiris<br />

sabWos sxdomis daskvna 5 , 2009 wlis 28 agvistos gaerTianebuli erebis<br />

organizaciis generaluri asambleis rezolurica `iZulebiT adgilnacval<br />

pirTa da ltolvilTa statusis Sesaxeb~, evropis sabWos saparlamento<br />

asambleis rezolucia `ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Sedegebis Sesaxeb~ N1633 (2008),<br />

N1647 (2009), N1648 (2009), N1664 (2009), N1683 (2009); `angariSebi saqarTveloSi<br />

momxdari konfliqtis Sedegad dazaralebul raionebSi adamianis uflebebis<br />

mdgomareobis Sesaxeb~ (SG/Inf(2009)7, SG/Inf(2009)9, SG/Inf(2009)15); euTos<br />

demokratiuli institutebisa da adamianis uflebebis ofisisa da erovnuli<br />

umcirsobebis sakiTxebSi euTos umaRlesi komisris moxseneba `saqarTveloSi<br />

konfliqtis Sedegad gamowveuli omiT dazaralebul teritoriebze adamianis<br />

uflebebis Sesaxeb~ (2008 wlis 27 noemberi); evroparlamentis rezolucia (2011<br />

wlis 20 ianvari) `evrokavSiris Savi zRvis strategiis Sesaxeb~ 6 , natos<br />

saparlamento asambleis N382 rezolucia `saqarTveloSi arsebuli<br />

mdgomareobis Sesaxeb~ 7 da sxva. saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi afxazeTis da samxreT<br />

oseTis teritoriebTan dakavSirebiT sul ufro xSirad ixmareba termini<br />

`okupacia~, maT Soris, evrokavSirisa da natos dokumentebSi.<br />

saqarTvelo miiCnevs, rom afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi SeWriT ruseTi mxolod<br />

da mxolod sakuTar strategiul amocanebs asrulebs. es, pirvel rigSi,<br />

saqarTvelos evroatlantikuri integraciis procesis SeCerebas exeba.<br />

moskovis gaRizianebis damatebiT faqtorad iqca 2008 wlis natos buqarestis<br />

samiti, romlis daskvniT dokumentSi dafiqsirda, rom garkveuli<br />

valdebulebebis Sesrulebis Semdeg ukraina da saqarTvelo<br />

Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevrebi gaxdebian. am gadawyvetilebam ruseTis<br />

gadamWreli moqmdebebis erTgvari `bolo vada~ (deadline) gansazRvra. moskovma<br />

naTlad igrZno, rom Tuki am saxelmwifoebis natosken ltolvas dRes ar<br />

SuSlida xels, xval SeiZleba gviani yofiliyo.<br />

rac Seexeba konfliqtis zonebSi ruseTis federaciis interesebs, samxreT<br />

oseTis teritoria moskovisTvis sainteresoa Tavisi geografiuli<br />

adgilmdebareobiT. moikida ra fexi samxreT oseTSi, ruseTi uSualo<br />

siaxloveSi aRmoCnda evraziul satranzito derefanTan da dasavleT da<br />

aRmosavleT saqarTvelos damakavSirebel satranporto kvanZTan.<br />

sxva xasiaTs atarebs ruseTis interesi afxazeTSi. am regionis strategiuli da<br />

ekonomikuri maCvneblebi yvela maxasiaTebliT aRemateba samxreTosurs.<br />

turistuli da satransporto infrastruqtura (portebi, aeroportebi,<br />

rkinigza) da bunebrivi resursebi afxazeTs ekonomikur momxibvlelobas<br />

aniWebs. bunebrivi resursebi afxazeTis wylebSi rogorc wyalzeda, ise<br />

wyalqveSa samxedro xomaldebis bazirebis saSualebas iZleva. afxazeTis<br />

teritoriaze gaerTianebuli samxedro bazis ganlagebiT ruseTs Savi zRvis<br />

flotis gaZlierebis imedi aqvs 8 .<br />

2008 wlis 26 agvistos ruseTma aRiara afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi, 2008 wlis 9<br />

seqtembers notebis gacvlis gziT moskovma daamyara `diplomatiuri<br />

urTierToba~ soxumTan da cxinvalTan, xolo 2008 wlis 17 seqtembers maTTan<br />

gaa<strong>for</strong>ma xelSekrulebebi `megobrobisa da TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb~. Semdgom<br />

5 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/102545.pdf<br />

6 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=REPORT&reference=A7-2010-0378&language=EN<br />

7 http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?SHORTCUT=2245<br />

8 http://www.newsru.com/<strong>russia</strong>/18feb2010/flot.html<br />

15

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daido xelSekrulebebi sazRvris dacvisa da samxedro TanamSromlobis<br />

sferoebSi. 2008-2010 w.w-is periodSi moskovma gaa<strong>for</strong>ma 60 `saerTaSoriso,<br />

mTavrobaTaSorisi da uwyebaTaSorisi~ dokumenti afxazeTsa da samxreT<br />

oseTTan, rogorc `damoukidebel saxelwifoebTan~ 9 . swored am<br />

molaparakebebis Sedegad ganaTavses konfliqtis zonebSi saraketo sistemebi<br />

С-300 da ТОЧКА-У (natos klasifikaciiT _ «Scarab-B»).<br />

amrigad, gamodis, rom moskovi, erTi mxriv, acxadebs ra saqarTvelos agresiuli<br />

ganwyobebis Sesaxeb, Tan mSvenivradac esmis, rom Tbiliss ar gaaCnia Sesabamisi<br />

SeiaraReba; okupirebul teritoriebze Tavad Seaqvs SeteviTi SeiaraReba da<br />

amiT provocirebas uwevs saqarTvelos xelisuflebas, rom moiZios meqanizmebi<br />

da gzebi TavdacviTi SeiaraRebis SesaZenad.<br />

ruseTis mxridan samxedro moqmedebebis ganaxlebis saSiSroebis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiT da sakuTari uryevi gadawyvetilebis dasadastureblad, rom<br />

nebismieri problema mxolod mSvidobiani gziT mogvardes, saqarTvelom<br />

calmxrivad ganacxada, rom iRebs Zalis gamouyeneblobis valdebulebas 10 .<br />

yvela zemoT dasaxelebuli faqtori ganixileba saqarTvelos erovnuli<br />

uSiSroebis safrTxed da mcdelobad Seicvalos usafrTxoebis sistema,<br />

romelic 1999 wels Seiqmna euTos stambolis samitis gadawyvetilebebis<br />

Sedegad.<br />

me-20 saukunis bolos, 1999 wlis noemberSi, stambolSi, euTos samitze<br />

ganxorcielda Savi zRvis regionis usafrTxoebis axali sistemis Seqmnis<br />

mcdeloba. Semajamebeli dokumentebis Tanaxmad, ruseTis federacias daekisra<br />

saqarTvelosa da moldovas teritoriebidan samxedro bazebis gayvanis<br />

valdebuleba. es gadawyvetileba unda gamxdariyo regionis demilitarizaciisa<br />

da arsebuli konfliqtebis mogvarebis safuZveli.<br />

miRweuli SeTanxmebebis realizacia gaiwela. saqarTvelos teritoriidan<br />

ruseTis samxedro bazebi mxolod 2007 wels iqna gayvanili. am SemTxvevaSic<br />

Riad darCa gudauTis (afxazeTi) samxedro bazis sakiTxi, sadac ar dauSves<br />

euTos damkvirveblebi, ramac eWvqveS daayena stambolis SeTanxmebebis<br />

Sesrulebis sakiTxi.<br />

1999 wels euTos samitze gansazRvruli suraTi 2008 wlis agvistos Semdeg<br />

kardinalurad Seicvala. Savi zRvis regionSi gaCnda ruseTis federaciis axali<br />

samxedro bazebi, kerZod, me-4 samxedro baza _ samxreT oseTSi da me-7 samxedro<br />

baza _ afxazeTSi. Seqmnil realobas Tbilisi aRiqvams qveynis<br />

usafrTxoebisaTvis savsebiT seriozul saSiSroebad, ramac SeiZleba 2008 wlis<br />

agvistos movlenebis gameorebamde migviyvanos.<br />

Sedegad ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris arsebulma uTanxmoebam Savi zRvis<br />

regioni TanamSromlobis sivrcis nacvlad winaaRmdegobis arenad aqcia, rac,<br />

Tavis mxriv, geopolitikuri procesebis sxvadasxva monawiles Soris<br />

mravalmxrivi winaaRmdegobis Sedegs warmoadgens.<br />

rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebi CarTuli AaRmoCnda moskovsa da dasavleTs<br />

Soris uTanxmoebis sakmaod daZabul konteqstSi, kerZod, iseT sakiTxebSi,<br />

rogoricaa: natos gafarToeba, kosovos Temaze diskusiebi, ra bedi eweva<br />

`evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebuli Zalebis Sesaxeb~ xelSekrulebas,<br />

msoflios mravalpolaruloba, `privilegirebul interesTa~ sfero, anu<br />

9 http://www.mid.ru/Brp_4.nsf/arh/5837BBE2727D8C3DC32576E9003AD888?OpenDocument<br />

10 ix. President of Georgia's Address to European Parliament, November 23th 2010. Members<br />

http://www.president.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=228&info_id=5857<br />

16

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yvelaferi is, rac warmoadgenda da garkveulwilad warmoadgens seriozuli<br />

davis sagans ruseTsa da aSS/natos Soris. Sedegad saqarTvelo aRmoCnda gamyof<br />

xazze dasavleTisa da ruseTis federacias Soris.<br />

moskovisa da Tbilisis urTierTobebSi SeiniSneba gansxvaveba xedvasa da<br />

msoflmxedvelobaSi, rac niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia yofili metropoliisa da koloniis<br />

urTierTobisaTvis. erTi mxriv, saqarTvelo Tavis momavals da sakuTari<br />

usafrTxoebis garantiebs evropul da evroatlantikur integracias<br />

ukavSirebs, meore mxriv ki, natos gafarTeobas moskovi aRiqvams ruseTis<br />

federaciis erovnuli interesebis safrTxed.<br />

amasTan, orive saxelmwifo saerTo-evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemis<br />

Semadgenel nawils warmoadgens, romelic, Tavis mxriv, mzad ar aRmoCnda 2008<br />

wlis konfliqtis prevenciisaTvis da romlis samSvidobo Zalisxmevis<br />

efeqturoba dResac araa sakmarisi. arsebuli realoba kidev erTxel<br />

dadasturda 2010 wlis euTos astanis samitze, rodesac ruseTisa da samitis<br />

sxva monawileebis poziciebs Soris gansxvavebebis gamo ver moxerxda<br />

Semajamebeli dokumentis miReba.<br />

evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemis farglebSi sadavo sakiTxebis gadawyvetisa<br />

da TanamSromlobis ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi<br />

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis praqtikaSi yofila SemTxvevebi, rodesac<br />

interesebis identificireba xels uwyobda yvelaze rTuli problemebis<br />

mogvarebas, miuxedavad mxareTa Tavdapirveli antagonisturi poziciebisa.<br />

magaliTad, 1967 wels, eqvsdRiani omis dasrulebis Semdeg, israelma sinais<br />

naxevarkunZulis okupireba moaxdina. rodesac 1978 wels egvipte da israeli<br />

molaparakebis magidasTan dasxdnen, maTi poziciebi SeuTavsebeli iyo. israeli<br />

daJinebiT iTxovda sinais nawils. egviptisTvis amgvari kompromisi miuRebeli<br />

iyo, xolo israels ar SeeZlo 1967 wlis situacias dabruneboda. Sedegad,<br />

mxareebs saerTo problemebis gansasazRvrad da SeTanxmebis miRwevis<br />

SesaZleblobebis mosaZebnad daexmara koncentrireba interesebze da ara<br />

poziciebze. israelis interesi sakuTari usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofaSi<br />

mdgomareobda, xolo egviptis interess sakuTari suverenitetisa da<br />

teritoriuli mTlianobis SenarCuneba warmoadgenda. sakiTxi Semdegnairad<br />

gadawyda — sinai egviptis iurisdiqciaSi dabrunda, xolo misi teritoriis<br />

demilitarizacia israelis usafrTxoebis garantias iZleoda.<br />

SesaZloa ki amgvari midgomiT rusul-qarTul urTierTobebSi Camoyalibebuli<br />

problemebis mogvareba? SeiZleba mxareTa obieqturi interesebi erTmaneTs<br />

daemTxves da rogor SeiZleba es yvelaferi Caeweros saerTo-evropuli<br />

usafrTxoebis sistemaSi?<br />

ruseTidan danaxuli viTareba<br />

ruseTi 2008 wlis agvistoSi samxreT oseTSi Carevas agresiad ar miiCnevs da<br />

dabejiTebiT amtkicebs, rom mis mier ganxorcielebuli operaciis mizani<br />

saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobisTvis omis Sewyvetis iZuleba iyo. saqarTveloSi<br />

konfliqtis Sesaxeb faqtebis gamorkvevis damoukidebeli saerTaSoriso misiis<br />

(haidi taliavinis misia) moxseneba aRiarebs, rom samxedro moqmedeba<br />

saqarTvelos Zalebis mier cxinvalisTvis saartilerio cecxlis gaxsniT<br />

daiwyo, Tumca gadametebulad miiCnevs ruseTis sapasuxo moqmedebas 11 .<br />

11 Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia. Report.<br />

www.ceiig.ch/Report.html<br />

17

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moskovi aseve uaryofs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis status-kvosTan<br />

dakavSirebiT termin `okupaciis~ gamoyenebas, argumentad ki mohyavs is, rom am<br />

ori respublikis teritoriaze efeqtur kontrols Tavad ar axorcielebs.<br />

SevniSnavT, rom termini ara mxolod iuridiuli TvalsazrisiTaa<br />

arakoreqtuli, misi gamoyneba Tavad qarTul-afxazuri da qarTulsamxreTosuri<br />

konfliqtebis faqtis simbolur `gauqmebas~ emsaxureba _<br />

TiTqos konfliqtebi arc arsebobs da arsebobs mxolod winaaRmdegoba ruseTsa<br />

da saqarTvelos Soris, xolo ruseTi saqarTvelos kuTvnili teritoriebis<br />

`okupacias~ axdens. magram problema isaa, rom afxazebisa da osebis<br />

umravlesobas ar surs icxovros qarTuli saxelmwifos SemadgenlobaSi.<br />

saqarTvelos centralurma xelisuflebam afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

teritoriebze kontroli dakarga ara 2008 wlis agvistos konfliqtis, aramed<br />

manmade arsebuli, gasuli saukunis 90-ian wlebSi momxdari konfliqtebis<br />

Sedegad. konfliqtis mogvarebis verc erTi samomavalo meqanizmi, ra Sedegic<br />

ar unda moitanos man, ver SeZlebs am garemoebis ugulebelyofas.<br />

ruseTi aseve uaryofs misi misamarTiT gamoTqmul braldebas qarTuli<br />

mosaxleobis eTnikuri wmendis Sesaxeb. TviT ruseTis xelisuflebis mimarT<br />

arakeTilganwyobili damkvirveblebic ki aRniSnavdnen rusuli samxedro<br />

xelmZRveneliobis Zalisxmevas, raTa ar daeSvaT morodiorobis faqtebi<br />

samxreT oseTSi darCenil qarTul soflebSi 12 .<br />

2008 wlis agvistos konfliqtis SefasebaSi ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris<br />

SeTanxmebis miRweva naklebsavaraudoa. moskovsa da Tbiliss Soris<br />

usafrTxoebis sferoSi arsebuli rigi winaaRmdegobebi aseve gadauWreli Cans<br />

arsebuli saerTaSoriso-politikuri realobis konteqstidan gamomdinare.<br />

aseT winaaRmdegobebSi Sedis, pirvel rigSi, ori qveynis gansxvavebuli midgoma<br />

saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebis sakiTxsa da afxazeTis da samxreT oseTis<br />

statusTan dakavSirebiT.<br />

arsebobs meore rigis winaaRmdegobebic, romlebic Semdeg sakiTxebs exeba:<br />

• afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi ganlagebuli SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da<br />

SeiaraRebis raodenoba da xasiaTi;<br />

• konfliqtur zonebSi Zalis gamouyeneblobis ufro myari da<br />

iuridiulad savaldebulo reJimis Camoyalibeba.<br />

• gansxvavebuli midgomebi afxazeTidan da samxreT oseTidan iZulebiT<br />

gadaadgilebul pirTa/devnilTa problemis gadasaWrelad;<br />

• afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazRvris Tavisufali da usafrTxo<br />

gadakveTis uzrunvelyofa sazRvrispira teritoriebis<br />

macxovrebelTaTvis;<br />

• ara<strong>for</strong>maluri SezRudvebi humanitarul sferoSi ori qveynis<br />

warmomadgenelTa TanamSromlobisTvis, mkacri savizo reJimi,<br />

administraciuli dabrkolebebi ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisTvis;<br />

• ori qveynis xelmZRvenelebis da oficialuri warmomadgenlebis<br />

negatiuri sajaro ritorika, maT Soris mezobeli qveynis<br />

Sidapolitikuri mdgomareobis Sefasebisas, administraciuli<br />

12 Татьяна Локшина. «Апокалипсис»? // Полит.ру, 26 августа 2008 г.<br />

http://www.polit.ru/institutes/2008/08/26/apokalipsis.html<br />

18

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dabrkolebebi ori qveynis saeqsperto da media sazogadoebebis<br />

dialogebisTvis.<br />

amgvari winaaRmdegoebebis daZleva arsebul pirobebSi, principSi,<br />

SesaZlebelia, Tumca amisTvis aucilebelia politikuri neba, romlis<br />

deficitsac orive mxare ganicdis. Tavdapirveli amocana mdgomareobs imaSi,<br />

rom mTavari sakiTxebis gadawyvetisas gamoiricxos meorexarisxovan sakiTxebSi<br />

arsebuli uTanxmoebebis zewolis insturmentad gamoyeneba, rac mxareTa<br />

keTili nebis gamovlinebad unda iqces. aseve saWiroa natos da respublikebis<br />

statusis garSemo arsebuli uTanxmoebis izolireba rusul-qarTuli<br />

urTierTobis danarCeni konteqstidan iseve, rogorc kavkasiis sakiTxis<br />

garSemo arsebuli uTanxmoebaa izolirebuli rusul-amerikuli uTanxmoebis<br />

saerTo konteqstidan. aRniSnuli winaaRmdegobebis dasaZlevad erToblivi<br />

samuSaos dawyebis SemTxvevaSi migvaCnia, rom saWiroa SedarebiT `rbili~<br />

sakiTxebiT (sajaro ritorika, savizo reJimi, humanitaruli sakiTxebi da sxva)<br />

dawyeba da Semdeg gadasvla ufro `mZafr~ sakiTxebze (or respublikaSi<br />

SeiaraRebuli Zalebis raodenoba da xasiaTi, Zalis gamouyenebloba da a.S.).<br />

SevecdebiT CamovayaliboT, Tu raSi SeiZleba mdgomareobdes am<br />

winaaRmdegobebis daZlevis rusuli midgomis arsi.<br />

ruseTis vizebis miRebisas saqarTvelos moqalaqeebi mniSvnelovan sirTuleebs<br />

awydebian. vizis miReba SeiZleba mxolod saqarTveloSi Sveicariis saelCos<br />

ruseTis interesebis seqciaSi. viza Zviria, mis misaRebad saWiroa ruseTis<br />

moqalaqis an rusuli organizaciis mowveva. es SezRudvebi, cxadia,<br />

gadametebulia, xolo jaSuSobis Tavidan acilebis mizniT _ arafris momtani.<br />

magram es saqarTveloSi iwvevs gaRizianebas da xels uSlis ori qveynis<br />

macxovreblebs Soris adamianuri da saqmiani kavSirebis gagrZelebas da<br />

gafarTeobas.<br />

rusul bazarze saqarTvelodan garkveuli kategoriis saqonlis Setanis<br />

akrZalvam ukve amowura sakuTari Tavi. qarTuli Rvino, sxva alkoholuri<br />

sasmelebi da mineraluri wylebi ruseTSi mainc xvdeba saqarTvelodan CasulTa<br />

bargiTa Tu mesame qveynebis gavliT. ukanasknel TveebSi ruseTTan, belorussa<br />

da yazaxeTTan sabaJo kavSiris amoqmedebiT farTo gza ixsneba am produqciis<br />

xelmisawvdomad. akrZalvam, romelic 2006 wels daiwyo ruseTidan<br />

aralegaluri emigrantebis _ saqarTvelos moqalaqeebis _ gasaxlebis<br />

kampaniasTan erTad, xuT weliwadSi sakuTari politikuri warumatebloba<br />

daamtkica _ amiT ver moxda saqarTvelos mosaxleobis qveynis moqmedi<br />

xelisuflebis mimarT ndobis kritikuli Semcireba.<br />

savaraudoa, rom qarTul saqonelze embargos gauqmebas da vizebis gacemis<br />

proceduris gamartivebas xels uSlis biurokratiuli inercia. garda amisa,<br />

ruseTis xelisuflebas SeiZleba ar surdes gadadgas iseTi nabiji, romelic<br />

xels Seuwyobda mixeil saakaSvilis gundis mdgomareobis stabilizacias an<br />

safuZvels miscems ilaparakos ruseTze mopovebuli diplomatiuri<br />

`gamarjvebis~ Sesaxeb. Tavis mxriv, qarTuli xelisuflebis ritorikasa Tu<br />

saxelmwifo propag<strong>and</strong>aSi mkvidrdeba azri, rom saqarTvelo sakuTari saqonlis<br />

gasasaReblad rusul bazars ar saWiroebs.<br />

rogorc Cven gvesaxeba, ruseTis xelisuflebam unda awon-dawonos, erTi mxriv,<br />

potenciurad ra politikuri danakargebi SeiZleba mohyves mixeil saakaSvilis<br />

Sidapolitikuri poziciebis garkveul (arcTu mniSvnelovan) gamyarebas, rasac<br />

eqsportisa da ruseTSi SromiTi migraciis Sedegad finansuri Sedinebis zrda<br />

gamoiwvevs da, meore mxriv, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis TvalSi popularuli<br />

19

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zomebis realizaciiT miRebuli mogeba. amave dros, politikuri da<br />

propag<strong>and</strong>istuli spekulaciebis Tavidan asacileblad mxareebma unda<br />

moilaparakon, ra xasiaTis iqneba am nabijebis sajarooba. amis gakeTeba SeiZleba<br />

saqarTvelos mier ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebis<br />

pirobebTan dakavSirebiT amJamad mimdinare daxuruli konsultaciebis<br />

`moednebze~, Tanac _ Tavad konsultaciebis Sedegebidan damoukideblad.<br />

orive qveynis saeqsperto sazogadoebam unda ixelmZRvanelos im TezisiT, rom<br />

perspeqtivaSi ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris unda imoqmedos uvizo reJimma.<br />

bolo weliwad-naxevris ganmavlobaSi moskovma sajaro gamosvlebSi<br />

mniSvnelovnad Seamcira antiqarTuli ritorikis moculoba, igive moxda<br />

saxelmwifo da saxelmwifosTan afilirebul mediaSi. saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebs wamyvan rusul gamocemebSi eZlevaT sakuTari<br />

poziciebis gamoxatvis saSualeba. ruseTis saeqsperto da media sazogadoebis<br />

liberalurad ganwyobili nawili saqarTveloSi mimdinare ekonomikuri<br />

re<strong>for</strong>mebisadmi simpaTias avlens da amas Riadac gamoxatavs, rac frondis<br />

niSnebis matareblad iqca. paradoqsulia, rom saxelmwifoTa Soris<br />

urTierTobis savalalo mdgomareobis miuxedavad, gavleniani rusuli<br />

masobrivi in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSuelebebis umetesoba saqarTveloze wers `an kargs,<br />

an arafers~. mediis velidan praqtikulad gaqra spekulaciuri Temebi<br />

saqarTveloSi eTnikur umciresobaTa mdgomareobis Sesaxeb, aseve _ misi<br />

xelovnurad destabilizaciis mowodebebi, rac, unda iTqvas, rom 2008 wlis<br />

seqtemberSic ki mxolod marginaluri politikuri jgufebis mxridan Tu<br />

ismoda. qarTul sain<strong>for</strong>macio sivrceSi analogiuri Zvrebi ar xdeba. ori<br />

qveynis saeqsperto da media sazogadoebebis warmomadgenlebs Soris dialogi<br />

xSirad iblokeba saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mier. telearxis `pirveli<br />

kavkasiuris~ mauwyeblobis organizeba ruseTSi ganixileba, rogorc CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiaSi situaciis destabilizaciis mcdeloba. amgvari in<strong>for</strong>maciuli, ufro<br />

farTod ki, sazogadoebrivi sivrce xels ar uwyobs ormxrivi urTierTobebis<br />

normalizaciis perspeqtivisken mimarTul qmedebebs, Tanac unda aRiniSnos, rom<br />

am SemTxvevaSi `burTi~ moednis qarTul mxarezea. xazs vusvamT, rom saubaria<br />

ara sityvis Tavisuflebis SezRudvaze, aramed mxolod mizanmimarTuli<br />

saxelmwifo propag<strong>and</strong>is Sewyvetaze.<br />

gasuli saukunis 90-ian wlebSi da 2008 wels momxdarma SeiaraRebulma<br />

Setakebebma mZime humanitaruli Sedegi gamoiRo. aseve unda aRiniSnos, rom<br />

qarTul-afxazuri da qarTul-samxreTosuri konfliqtebi Caisaxa rogorc<br />

eTnikuri Temebis konfliqti saqarTvelos ssr-is ori avtonomiis SigniT.<br />

ltolvilTa dabruneba TavisTavad ver uzrunvelyofs TemTaSorisi<br />

konfliqtebis mogvarebas, ufro metic, SesaZloa konfliqti kvlav aqtualuri<br />

gaxados.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis status-kvosTan dakavSriebiT moskovis<br />

oficialuri pozicia ar dazaraldeba, Tuki moskovi ltolvilebis/iZulebiT<br />

gadaadgilebuli pirebis problemasTan dakavSirebiT am ori respublikis<br />

xelmZRvenelobis xedvisgan garkveul distancirebaze wava. ase, magaliTad,<br />

SesaZlebelia ltolvilTa (eTnikur qarTvelTa) galis raionis garda<br />

afxazeTis zogierT sxva regionSi dabrunebis sakiTxis ganxilva. aseve<br />

aucilebelia ltolvilTa dakarguli qonebis kompensaciis meqanizmebis<br />

ganxilvac 13 . principSi, afxazeTis xelisufleba amgvari ganxilvebiT<br />

13 afxazeTSi momuSave zogi rusi investoris TqmiT, im SemTxvevaSi, roca yidulobdnen<br />

obieqtebs, romlebic adre qarTvel moqalaqeebs ekuTvnoda, ltolvilebs uxdidnen<br />

kompensacias, radgan Tavadve iyvnen dainteresebuli, rom maT uflebebs s<strong>and</strong>o iuridiuli<br />

20

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dainteresebuli unda iyos, radganac ganusazRvreli iuridiuli statusis<br />

mqone uZravi qonebis mravali obieqtis arseboba respublikaSi abrkolebs<br />

investorTa mozidvas.<br />

misasalmebelia samxreT oseTis xelisuflebis mier gadadgmuli nabijebi, rac<br />

mimarTuli iyo respublikaSi eTnikuri qarTvelebis mdgomareobis<br />

Sesamsubuqeblad da sazRvrispira mosaxleobis Tavisuflad gadaadgilebaze<br />

zogierTi dabrkolebis mosaxsnelad (kerZod, es ukavSirdeba respublikaSi<br />

binadrobis mowmobis SemoRebasTan dakavSirebul gegmebs, romliTac qarTveli<br />

moqalaqeebi SeZleben sargeblobas). amgvari samuSao unda gagrZeldes, amasTan<br />

ruseTma oficialurad unda ganacxados, rom mzadaa xelSewyobisaTvis. Cveni<br />

warmodgeniT, aq SeiZleba evropuli struqturebis CarTva evrokavSiris<br />

adamianis uflebaTa komisris saxiT.<br />

konfliqtis zonaSi usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis Sesaxeb warmoebul<br />

diskusiebSi mTavar dabrkolebad iqca saqarTvelosa da afxazeTs,<br />

saqarTvelosa da samxreT oseTs, ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobis garantiebis sakiTxi. saqarTvelo uars ambobs afxazeTTan da<br />

samxreT oseTTan Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb iuridulad savaldebulo<br />

xelSekrulebis ga<strong>for</strong>mebaze, etyoba, SiSobs, rom amgvari SeTanxmeba SeiZleba<br />

Sefasdes ori respublikis mimdinare statusis aRiarebad. ruseTi ki uars<br />

acxadebs saqarTvelosTan amgvari SeTanxmebis dadebaze, radgan, misi TqmiT, ar<br />

warmoadgens mxares qarTul-osur da qarTul-afxazur konfliqtebSi.<br />

amavdroulad afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi kvlavac SiSoben, rom saqarTvelom<br />

maT mimarT Zala ar gamoiyenos, saqarTvelo ki SiSobs, rom mis mimarT Zala<br />

SeiZleba gamoiyenos ruseTma. savaraudod, saqarTvelosTan Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobis xelSekrulebis dadebaze ruseTis uari imiT aixsneba, rom<br />

sakuTari Tavis konfliqtis mxared aRiareba SeiZleba konfliqtSi mesame<br />

Zalebis diplomatiuri Carevis safuZveli gaxdes, rac moskovisTvis<br />

miuRebelia.<br />

evroparlamentis tribunidan mixeil saakaSvilis mier gakeTebuli sityvieri<br />

gancxadeba, rom saqarTvelo ar apirebs Zalismieri gziT afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTis sakuTar iurisdiqciaSi dabrunebas, or respublikasa da moskovSi<br />

sakmarisad myar garantiad ar aRiqmeba. es, pirvel rigSi, ukavSirdeba<br />

TbilisTan maTi urTierTobis adrindel gamocdilebas. gancxadeba iyo kargi<br />

diplomatiuri svla, romelic dasavleTevropul da amerikul auiditoriaze<br />

iyo gaTvlili, magram, rogorc Cans, misi praqtikuli mniSvneloba amiT<br />

amoiwureba.<br />

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mier miRebuli afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

`okupaciis~ koncefcia SeuZlebels xdis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis ara<br />

marto samarTlebrivi (marTlac sakamaTo) statusis, aramed maTi politikuri<br />

subieqtobis aRiarebas, rasac saqarTvelos xelisufleba 2008 wlis agvistomde<br />

aRiarebda, radgan ar scildeboda konfliqtebis daregulirebis SeTanxmebebis<br />

farglebs. mocemuli pozicia sustia, radgan Tuki saqarTvelo ori konfliqtis<br />

mSvidiobiani mogvarebis gzas adgas, maSin aucilebeli da gardauvalia<br />

urTierTqmedeba im ZalebTan, romlebic uSualod akontroleben afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis teritoriebs da, Sesabamisad, saWiroa ama Tu im <strong>for</strong>miT maTi,<br />

rogorc politikuri subieqtebis, aRiareba 14 .<br />

garantiebi hqonoda. kompensaciebis Sesaxeb molaparakeba iyo kerZo xasiaTisa da ar xdeboda<br />

amis afiSireba.<br />

14 ruseTis CeCneTSi miRebuli gamocdileba aCvenebs, rom saerTaSoriso masStabiT aRiarebul<br />

sakuTar teritoriaze Zalismieri gziT konstituciuri mowyobis aRdgenis drosac ki Tavs ver<br />

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Cveni warmodgeniT, gamosavali SeiZleba iyos iseTi SeTanxmebis (an<br />

SeTanxmebebis paketis) xelmowera, romelic Seicavda Semdeg sakiTxebs:<br />

• ormxrivi valdebuleba Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb saqarTvelosa da<br />

afxazeTis moqmed xelisuflebas Soris da saqarTvelosa da samxreT<br />

oseTis moqmed xelisuflebas Soris;<br />

• saqarTvelos pozicias imis Sesaxeb, rom igi ar scnobs afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis damoukidebel statuss;<br />

• ruseTisa da saqarTvelos dasturi gaeros, euTos da evrokavSiris<br />

CarCoebSi mocemuli valdebulebebis erTgulebisa, raTa saxelmwifoTa<br />

Soris uTanxmoebebis da winaaRmdegobebis gadasawyvetad ar gamoiyenon<br />

Zala, an Zalis muqara.<br />

gansaxilvelad gacilebiT rTulia afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi ganlagebuli<br />

samxedro Zalebis raodenobisa da xasiaTis sakiTxi. erTi mxriv, samxreT oseTSi<br />

SeiaraRebis rigi (`toCka-u~, `smerCi~) sistmebis arseboba, romelTa moqmedebis<br />

zonaSic sakuTriv qarTuli teritoriebi xvdeba, qarTuli sazogadoebisa da<br />

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis SeSfoTebasa da Relvas iwvevs. meore mxriv, am<br />

sakiTxis ganxilvis mcdelobas SeuZlia gaaaqtiuros is Rrma undobloba da<br />

mtroba, romelsac erTmaneTis mimarT ganicdian ori saxelmwifos Zalovani<br />

struqturebi. es ki safrTxis winaSe daayenebs sxva mimarTulebebiT warmoebul<br />

dialogsac.<br />

amitom mocemuli sakiTxis dRis wesrigSi dayeneba SesaZlebelia mxolod Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobis iuriduli garantiebis uzrunvelyofis SemTxvevaSi. Tumca<br />

bolomde ver gamovricxavT moskovis mier calmxrivad gadadgmul nabijebs (ama<br />

Tu im saxis SeiaraRebis gayvana da sxva msgavsi), romlebic garkveul politikur<br />

viTarebaSi keTili nebis niSnad SeiZleba ganxorcieldes.<br />

aseve unda vaRiaroT, rom moskovi-Tbilisi-soxumi-cxinvalis oTxkuTxedSi<br />

arsebobs `usafrTxeobis asimetria~. saomari moqmedebebis savaraudo<br />

ganaxlebasTan dakavSirebuli SiSi praqtikulad ar igrZnoba ruseTSi,<br />

SedarebiT mcirea is afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi da aSkarad Zlieria<br />

saqarTveloSi. Zalis gamouyeneblobis garantiebis ganxilvisas es asimetria<br />

aucileblad unda iyos gaTvaliswinebuli.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTSi eqspertul doneze ganixileba afxazeTsa da samxreT<br />

oseTSi saerTaSoriso damkvirveblebis xelmisawvdomobis gafarToebis<br />

perspeqtivac 15 . es ar gveCveneba warmoudgenlad, Tuki gaviTvaliswinebT, rom<br />

2008 wels evrokavSiris misiis muSaobas dabrkoleba Seeqmna afxazeTis da<br />

samxreT oseTis teritoriebis statusis sakiTxis gamo. damkvirvebelTa yofna<br />

SeiZleba SesaZlebeli gaxdes, Tuki moxerxdeba SeTanxmebis miRweva maTi misiis<br />

imgvari saxelwodebisa da m<strong>and</strong>atis Sesaxeb, romelic an sulac gverds auvlis am<br />

ori respublikis statusis sakiTxs, an maT damoukidebel samarTlebriv<br />

subieqtad igulisxmebs. amgvarma SeTanxmebam SeiZleba Seamciros afxazeTsa da<br />

samxreT oseTSi ganlagebuli SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da SeiaraRebis<br />

raodenobasTan da xasiaTTan dakavSirebuli qarTuli mxaris SeSfoTeba. es<br />

aarideb imaTTan urTierTobas, vinc warmoadgens teritoriis am nawilis xelisuflebas; aseve<br />

mogiwevs amgvari `kontraqtis~ grZelvadian danakargebTan Serigeba.<br />

15 «Отношения России и США после «перезагрузки»: на пути к новой повестке дня. Взгляд из России». Доклад<br />

российских участников Рабочей группы по будущему российско-американских отношений. Март 2011.<br />

(http://www.globalaffairs.ru/docs/RussUSAreload.pdf)<br />

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SeTanxmeba aseve daexmareba respublikebis mimarT evrokavSiris mier miRebul<br />

koncefciis `CarTuloba aRiarebis gareSe~ praqtikuli SinaarsiT SevsebaSi.<br />

vaRiarebT ra, rom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusTan da saqarTvelos<br />

natoSi gawevrianebis sakiTxTan dakavSirebuli winaaRmdegobebi am droisaTvis<br />

gadauWrelia, mainc mogvyavs ramdenime Tezisi, romlebic am sakiTxebis garSemo<br />

diskusiis perspeqtivis aucileblobas da gafarToebas asaxavs.<br />

ruseTi ar ewinaaRmdegeba saqarTvelos evrokavSirTan daaxloebas. moskovi<br />

marTlac gamoxatavda garkveul SeSfoTebas aRmosavluri partniorobis<br />

programis realizaciasTan dakavSirebiT, magram es SeSfoTeba dakavSirebuli<br />

iyo programis im elementebTan, romlebic cudad efardeboda aRmosavleT<br />

evropasa da Savi zRvis regonSi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis ukve arsebul<br />

<strong>for</strong>matebs, romlebSic CarTulia ruseTi (dsT, Savi zRvis ekonomikuri<br />

TanamSromlobis organizacia (BSEC), ruseTis da belorusis kavSiri).<br />

aRmosavluri partniorobis iniciativaze ruseTis Tavdapirveli, SeSfoTebuli<br />

reaqcia male neitraluriT, zog SemTxvevaSi ki, iniciativisadmi pozitiuri<br />

damokidebulebiT Seicvala.<br />

`geopolitikuri pluralizmi~ postsabWoTa sivrceSi, maT Soris<br />

amierkavkasiaSic, yofili sabWoTa respublikebis damoukideblobiT<br />

ganpirobebul realobad iqca. saqarTvelo iseve, rogorc postsabWoTa sivrcis<br />

sxva mravali qveyana, dasavleTs modernizaciuli cvlilebebis, investiciebisa<br />

da teqnologiebis wyarod aRiqvams. amgvarad ganixilavs dasavleTs TviT<br />

ruseTic, im gansxvavebiT, rom mas ara aqvs iluziebi, TiTqos gareSe faqtors<br />

ZaluZs mis socialur-ekonomikur modernizaciaze raime saxis mniSvnelovani<br />

gavlenis moxdena _ ruseTis sididis, samxedro-politikuri siZlieris da<br />

istoriuli tradiciebis gaTvaliswinebiT.<br />

moskovisTvis mniSvnelovania mxolod ori, erTmaneTTan dakavSirebuli<br />

principi. pirveli rigSi _ saqarTvelos `evropuli~ an `dasavluri~<br />

orientacia avtomaturad ar gadaiqces antirusul arCevnad, anu, rom<br />

`geopolitikuri pluralizmis~ principi maszec vrceldebodes. amasTan,<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom gasuli saukunis oTxmociani wlebis bolodan saqarTvelos<br />

sagareo politika konceptualurad Sendeba opoziciurobis _ `dasavleTiruseTi~<br />

_ safuZvelze.<br />

meore principi _ `evropuli~ an `dasavluri~ arCevani avtomaturad ar<br />

gulisxmobdes arCevans natos samxedro infrastruqturis ruseTis<br />

sazRvrebTan ganlagebis sasargeblod.<br />

saqarTvelos mmarTvel elitas `dasavluri~ arCevanis antirusulTan gaigiveba<br />

ubiZgebs sakuTari sagareo-politikuri strategiis agebas iseTi scenariT,<br />

romelSic ruseTis sagareo-politikuri gavlena, minimum, ar gaizrdeba da,<br />

maqsimum, dasustebas daiwyebs. es scenari jerjerobiT ar xorcieldeba.<br />

ukanaskneli ori-sami wlis manZilze ruseTma Tavis dasavleT sazRvrebze<br />

mezobelTa umetesobasTan urTierToba gaiumjobesa. dadebulia sasazRvro<br />

xelSekruleba norvegiasTan, SvedeTTan da fineTTan miRweulia SeTanxmeba<br />

gazsaden Nord Stream-is aSenebasTan dakavSirebiT. win waiwia Serigebis sakiTxma<br />

poloneTTan, romelsac ruseTi amJamad ganixilavs rogirc potenciur sakvanZo<br />

partniors evrokavSirSi germaniasTan, safrangeTTan da italiasTan erTad.<br />

ukrainasTan miRweulia SeTanxmeba sevastopolSi rusuli samxedro-sazRvao<br />

bazis yofnis vadis gagrZelebaze, gaCnda kievTan ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis<br />

gazrdis perspeqtivebi, Tanac ukrainam uari Tqva natos SemadgenlobaSi<br />

Sesvlis gegmebze. azerbaijanTan urTierToba strategiuli partniorobis<br />

23

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donemde avida, rac moskovis baqosTan da erevanTan urTierTobebis balansis<br />

uzrunvelyofis da mxareTa Soris yarabaRis konfliqtis garSemo<br />

molaparakebebis (Tundac humanitarul sferoSi) win wawevis saSualebas iZleva.<br />

pozitiuri biZgebi SeiniSneba ruseTis tradiciulad rTul urTierTobebSi<br />

baltiis saxelmwifoebTan. aSkarad SeiniSneba uaxloes samezobloSi ruseTis<br />

gavlenis zrdisaken mimarTuli tendencia. garkveulwilad amitomac rusi<br />

politikosebi saqarTvelosTan daZabul urTierTobas axla ar ganixilaven,<br />

rogorc mwvave problemas, romelsac saswrafo gadaWra esaWiroeba.<br />

ruseTis dasustebaze fsonis dadeba saqarTvelos strategias damokidebels<br />

xdis iseT faqtorebze, romlebzec Tbilisis xelisuflebas gavlenis moxdena<br />

ar SeuZlia. bolos da bolos amgvari pozicia xels uSlis saqarTvelos,<br />

isargeblos im upiratesobebiT, romlebsac mezoblebs ruseTis ekonomikuri<br />

zrda aZlevs, miuxedavad am zrdis xarisxis aSkara deficitisa, da romliTac<br />

sargebloben azerbaijanis, somxeTisa da yazaxeTis biznesjgufebi.<br />

ruseTis sagareo politikaSi igrZnoba postsabWoTa sivrcis mezoblebTan Ria,<br />

konkretuli da praqtikaSi ganxorcielebuli urTierTqmedebebis principTa<br />

deficiti. Tu yvelafers Tavis saxels davarqmevT, regionze ruseTis gavlena<br />

xilul momavalSi kvlavac mniSvnelovani (Tu ara ganmsazRvreli) iqneba,<br />

Tundac misi masStabebidan gamomdinare. am perspeqtivaSi gasagebia<br />

saqarTvelos sifrTxile: ruseTs arasodes uTqvams, ramdenad Sors apirebs<br />

wasvlas sakuTari gavlenis gavrcelebis mimarTulebiT.<br />

ruseTi yovel mezobelTan urTierTobis principebis sakiTxs individualurad<br />

da, SesaZloa, xSirad ara<strong>for</strong>maluri saxiTac wyvets. es ki moiTxovs ara<br />

faseulobebiT gansazRvruli sagareo-politikuri orientirebis, aramed<br />

praqtikuli interesebis ganxilvas. amasTan, afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan,<br />

aseve, natosTan dakavSirebuli ama Tu im winaaRmdegobis daZleva ar SeiZleba<br />

CaiTvalos ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobebis diskusiisa da am urTierTobis<br />

normalizaciis pirobis amosaval wertilad. piriqiT, urTierTobis<br />

normalizaciis procesma unda miiyvanos mxareebi gansakuTrebiT mwvave<br />

winaaRmdegobebis mogvarebasTan.<br />

saqarTvelodan danaxuli viTareba<br />

saqarTvelo dainteresebulia ruseTis federaciasTan politikuri<br />

konfliqtis mogvarebiT, Tumca es ar niSnavs sagareo politikis dasavlur<br />

veqtorze uaris Tqmas. keTilmezobluri urTierTobebi unda efuZnebodes<br />

urTierTxelsayrel pirobebs, sadac pativs scemen da iTvaliswineben orive<br />

qveynis interesebs.<br />

ruseTis Tanamedrove politika sul ufro metadaa agebuli principze: `vinc<br />

CvenTan araa, is Cvens winaaRmdegaa~, rac dasavleTis alternativis Seqmnis<br />

mcdelobad gamoiyureba. Sedegad moskovi, mizidulobis centris magivrad, sul<br />

ufro emsgavseba simZimis da zewolis centrs. amgvari midgoma mezobel qveynebs<br />

aiZulebs sakuTari suverenitetis dasacavad Tavdacvis damatebiTi meqanizmebi<br />

moiZion. saqarTvelos Crdiloatlantikuri miswrafeba moskovidan zewolis<br />

pirdapirporporciulia da Tumca natosTan TanamSromloba saqarTvelosTvis,<br />

pirvel rigSi, qveynis modernizaciisa da demokratiul saxelmwifod<br />

gadaqcevis meqanizms warmoadgens, ruseTis qmedeba sul ufro metad ubiZgebs<br />

saqarTvelos sakuTari usafrTxoeba dasavlur aliansebs daukavSiros. am<br />

ganwyobebs kidev ufro aZlierebs 2008 wlis omi, moskovis mier afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis aRiareba, am teritoriebze samxedro infrastruqturis<br />

24

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ganlageba da gaZliereba, ekonomikuri sanqciebi, rusuli politikis sixiste da<br />

araprognozirebadoba.<br />

`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg moskovma araerTxel mianiSna, rom surs<br />

saqarTvelo ixilos neitralur saxelmwifod. amgvari gancxadebebi gaJRerda<br />

rogorc araoficialuri da daxuruli <strong>for</strong>matis konsultaciebze, ise _<br />

sajarod 16 . magram es winadadeba Tavidanve iyo moklebuli saqarTvelos<br />

erovnuli usafrTxoebis problemis gadawyvetis SesaZleblobas. postsabWoTa<br />

sivrceSi erT-erTi pirveli saxelmwifo, romelmac arCevani neitralitetis<br />

sasargeblod gaakeTa, iyo moldova, romelmac amis Sesaxeb damoukideblobis<br />

deklarirebisTanave ganacxada, magram amas ar daucvia moldova<br />

dnesprispireTis dilemisa da ruseTis mxridan ekonomikuri sanqciebisgan. 2010<br />

wels blokgareSe statusis deklarileba moaxdina ukrainamac, magram aqac<br />

kiTxvis niSnis qveS rCeba usafrTxoebis grZelvadiani garantiebis miRebis<br />

perspeqtivebi.<br />

neitraliteti dafuZnebuli unda iyos balansze da yvela dainteresebuli<br />

Zalis, maT Soris regionSi gavlenis mosapoveblad metoqeebis mxridan<br />

urTierTSekavebis meqanizmebze. yirimSi ruseTis SavizRvispireTis flotis<br />

ganlagebis gaTvaliswinebiT, ukrainis neitraliteti natoSi Sesvlis akrZalvas<br />

ufro hgavs, vidre Sekavebisa da sapirwoneebis myar sistemas, romelic<br />

sxvadasxva geopolitikuri moTamaSis interesebs gaiTvaliswinebda.<br />

amgvarad, moldovisa da ukrainis gamocdileba TbilisisTvis misabaZi magaliTi<br />

ver gaxdeba. garda amisa, blokgareSe statusi SeiZleba potenciuri<br />

dabrkoleba gaxdes evrokavSirSi SesvlisaTvis. evrokavSirs aqvs sagareo da<br />

TavdacviTi politikis sakuTari elementi _ CSDP (Common Security <strong>and</strong> Defense<br />

Policy) 17 , rac SesaZloa moskovma natos msgavs arasasurvel negatiur faqtorad<br />

aRiqvas. neitralitetis sawinaaRmdego damatebiTi arguments pirveli qarTuli<br />

respublikis (1918-1921 ww.) tragikuli bedic warmoadgens.<br />

usafrTxoebis garantiebTan dakavSirebiT damatebiTi SeTanxmebebis dadebis<br />

Sesaxeb molaparakebebi SesaZloa naklebadwarmatebuli aRmoCndes. moskovi<br />

arasakmarisad miiCnevs saqarTvelos prezidentis mier Zalis gamouyeneblobis<br />

Sesaxeb calmxrivad gakeTebul gancxadebas, xolo Tbilisi skeptikurad<br />

uyurebs moskovis xelmowerebs, radganac miiCnevs, rom ruseTi adrec arRvevda<br />

saxelSekrulebo valdebulebebs da amJamadac arRvevs (aq mxedvelobaSi gvaqvs<br />

1999 wlis stambolis samitis gadawyvetileba, 2008 wlis 12 agvistos SeTanxmeba<br />

cecxlis Sewyvetis Sesaxeb, gaeros usafrTxoebis sabWos rezoluciebi, sadac<br />

ruseTis federacia mxars uWerda saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobas da<br />

a.S.). erTmaneTisaTvis wayenebuli pretenziebis CamonaTvali SesaZloa<br />

usasrulobamde gagrZeldes. yvelaferi es ki aSkarad zRudavs mxareTa Soris<br />

SeTanxmebis miRwevis SesaZleblobebs.<br />

ukanaskneli oci wlis manZilze Tbilisisa da moskovis urTierTobaSi dagrovda<br />

bevrad meti uaryofiTi mogoneba da emocia, vidre dadebiTi magaliTi. Sedegad<br />

aman ndobis gaqroba da sruli gaucxoeba moitana. problemis SefasebebSi<br />

gansxvavebas mxareebi sakamaTo sakiTxebis gadasawyvetad gansxvavebul<br />

xedvebamde mihyavs. saqarTvelos moqalaqeTaTvis savizo reJimis gamartivebis,<br />

bazarze qarTuli produqciis dabrunebisa da pirdapiri aviamimosvlis<br />

aRdgenis winadadebebma dakarges mimzidveloba da aqtualoba. sakuTari<br />

sanqciebiT moskovma saqarTvelos mxolod ruseTis gareSe cxovreba aswavla.<br />

16 ix. «У России и Грузии нет неразрешимых противоречий», http://top.rbc.ru/politics/06/02/2007/95947.shtml<br />

17 erTiani usafrTxoebisa da Tavdacvis politika.<br />

25

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amitom aRniSnuli sakiTxebis gadawyveta, pirvel rigSi, ruseTis interesebSi<br />

unda iyos. sanqciebis gauqmebam SeiZleba dadebiTi gavlena moaxdinos sakuTari<br />

imijis gamosworebasa da TbilisTan Semdgomi dialogis gagrZelebaze, magram<br />

ormxrivi urTierTobebis normalizaciisaTvis es ver iTamaSebs gansakuTrebul<br />

rols, Tuki moskovi ar gadadgams ufro Tanamimdevrul da arsebiT nabijebs.<br />

mxareTa Soris SeTanxmeba SeiZleba miRweuli iyos principiT `martividan<br />

rTulamde~. ndobis atmosferos Seqmnisken gadadgmuli erT-erTi pirveli<br />

nabiji SeiZleba gaxdes koreqtuli politikuri ritorika, romelic<br />

diplomatiuri leqsikis farglebs ar gascdeba. uTanxmoebis <strong>and</strong>a ama Tu im<br />

poziciis gamoxatva unda xorcieldebodes ara urTierTSeuracyofiT, aramed<br />

argumentebis saSualebiT.<br />

or qveyanas Soris kulturuli da samecniero kontaqtebi SeiZleba kargi<br />

plat<strong>for</strong>ma aRmoCndes sakamaTo istoriuli sakiTxebis gadasawyvetad, maT<br />

Soris, afxazuri da osuri sazogadoebis monawileobiT. magaliTad, rusul da<br />

qarTul arqivebSi inaxeba uaxlesi istoriis SeswavlisTvis gansakuTrebuli<br />

mniSvnelobis mqone uamravi dokumenti. erToblivi kvlevebi xels Seuwyobda<br />

rogorc istoriuli procesebis da calkeuli faqtebis dadgenas da Sefasebas,<br />

ise zogierTi sakamaTo da mtkivneuli sakiTxis depolitizacias.<br />

friad sasargeblo iqneboda eqspertuli da media sazogadoebebis doneze<br />

dialogisTvis mudmivmoqmedi sivrcis Seqmna. sazogadoebebs Soris in<strong>for</strong>maciis<br />

gacvla da ndobis aRdgena warmoadgens erT-erT im gzaTagans, romelic<br />

sabolood politikur dialogamde midis. amgvari kontaqtebi xels Seuwyobs<br />

realobis danaxvis da alternatiuli azris pativiscemis xelisSemSleli<br />

stereotipebis daZlevas. am mimarTebiT SeiZleba pozitiurad iqnes<br />

gamoyenebuli saqarTveloSi rusuli biznesis yofnis faqtoric, romelic aq<br />

sakmaod kom<strong>for</strong>tulad viTardeba, miuxedavad mxareTa politikuri<br />

konfrontaciisa.<br />

ufro nayofieri, maT Soris evropuli usafrTxoebisTvis, SeiZleba gamxdariyo<br />

im sakiTxebis ganxilva, romelTa gadawyvetac ori saxelmwifos interesebis<br />

farglebs scildeba. amgvari sakiTxebi SeiZleba iyos Savi zRvis regionis<br />

ekologia, sxvadasxva daavadebisa da epidemiis prevencia da profilaqtika,<br />

aseve saerTaSoriso terorizmi, organizebuli danaSauli, iaraRiT<br />

aralegaluri vaWroba, narkotikebis aralegaluri brunva, trefikingi da a.S.<br />

msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebuli<br />

molaparakebebi SeiZleba ormxrivi kompromisis miRwevis karg magaliTad iqces.<br />

mdinare fsouze da rokis gvirabTan ganlagebul sabaJo gamSveb punqtebze<br />

saerTaSoriso kontrolis daweseba SesaZlebels gaxdis ormxriv<br />

usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli sxva sakiTxebis ganxilvas. amis nimuSi<br />

SeiZleba iyos brZola narkotikebiT saerTaSoriso aralegalur vaWrobasTan,<br />

romelic safrTxes warmoadgens rogorc ruseTisTvis, ise saqarTvelosa da<br />

evrokavSirisTvis. aSS-is saxelmwifo departamentis angariSSi saerTaSoriso<br />

antinarkotikuli strategiis Sesaxeb saqarTvelos okupirebuli teritoriebi<br />

moniSnulia rogorc narkotikuli saSualebebis aralegaluri brunvis<br />

savaraudo zonebi. amasTanave, narkotikuli saSualebebis ukanono brunvis<br />

zrdis faqti, rogorc `ruseTis da afxazeTis mosaxleobis janmrTelobisa da<br />

keTildReobisTvis safrTxis Semcveli~, aRiniSna ruseTis narkotikebis<br />

brunvaze kontrolis federaciuli samsaxuris direqtoris moadgilis oleg<br />

safonovisa da afxazeTis de faqto Sinagan saqmeTa ministris leonid ZiafSbas<br />

Sexvedraze. Sexvedra Catarda 2010 wlis 6 dekembers soWSi, narkotikebis<br />

gavrcelebis winaaRmdeg brZolis saqmeSi TanamSromlobis protokolis<br />

26

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ga<strong>for</strong>mebis farglebSi 18 . iqve batonma safonovma xazi gausva, rom `afxazeTis<br />

mTebSi warmoebuli marixuana maRali donisaa, ris gamoc Zlier fasobs<br />

narkotikis momxmareblebs Soris~. man aseve aRniSna, rom awyobilia afxazeTidan<br />

ruseTis teritoriaze mZime narkotikebis Semotanis arxebi 19 .<br />

narkobiznesi, gansakuTrebiT SeiaraRebuli konfliqtis zonebSi, pirdapir<br />

ukavSirdeba trefikings, iaraRiT ukanono vaWrobas da saerTaSoriso<br />

terorizms, rac saboloo jamSi CrdiloeT kavkasiis stabilurobaze axdens<br />

uSualo gavlenas. miT umetes, rom konfliqtebs kavkasiaSi aqvT rogorc<br />

gansxvavebuli, ise msgavsi faqtorebi. maTi anatomia, aseve mravali ZiriTadi<br />

moqmedi piri 20 urTierTdakavSirebulia, ris gamoc maTi daregulirebis<br />

<strong>for</strong>mulebi ar SeiZleba didad gansxvavdebodes erTmaneTisgan.<br />

seriozul ganxilvas saWiroebs konfliqtis zonebSi ganlagebuli ruseTis<br />

SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da SeiaraRebis raodenoba da xasiaTi, miuxedavad am<br />

sakiTxebis mTeli sirTulisa. mocemuli Temebi pirdapir ukavSirdeba<br />

stambolis 1999 wlis SeTanxmebas. amitom maTi euTos CarCoSi ganxilva SeiZleba<br />

Tavisebur testad iqces rogorc evropuli usafrTxoebis sistemisTvis, aseve<br />

Tavad ruseTisTvis. qveyana, romelsac saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis sistemis<br />

re<strong>for</strong>matorobaze aqvs pretenzia, saxelSekulebo valdebulebebis Sesrulebis<br />

saerTaSoriso monitoringis sistemisadmi ufro konstruqciul midgomas<br />

saWiroebs.<br />

Tumca, amgvari procesebis dasawyebad saWiroa politikuri neba.<br />

TanamSromlobasTan SeiZleba mxolod saerTo interesebma migviyvanos. aSS-sTan<br />

urTierTobis gadatvirTva, natosTan da evrokavSirTan TanamSromlobis<br />

ganviTareba ruseTis dasavleTTan daaxloebas Seuwyobs xels. es pozitiurad<br />

aisaxeba rusul-qarTul urTierTobebze da SeiZleba konstruqciuli<br />

molaparakebis procesis dasawyisamde migviyvanos.<br />

18 ix. «Наркополицейские России и Абхазии подписали в Сочи протокол о сотрудничестве».<br />

http://www.abkhaziagov.org/ru/president/press/news/detail.php?ID=35349&phrase_id=340411<br />

19 ix. «Наркополицейские России и Абхазии подписали в Сочи протокол о сотрудничестве».<br />

http://www.abkhaziagov.org/ru/president/press/news/detail.php?ID=35349&phrase_id=340411<br />

20 magaliTad, Samil basaevi monawileobda brZolebSi mTian yarabaRsa da afxazeTSi, 1992-1993<br />

wlebSi iyo afxazeTis Tavdacvis ministris moadgile, afxazeTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis<br />

sardlis mrCeveli, dajildoebulia `afxazeTis gmiris~ ordeniT. analogiuri istoriaa ruslan<br />

gilaevTan dakavSirebiTac.<br />

27

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1. problemis dasma<br />

CrdiloeTi kavkasia qarTul-rusuli<br />

urTierTobebis konteqstSi<br />

28<br />

Tornike SaraSeniZe<br />

profesori, saqarTvelos sazogadoebriv saqmeTa institutis<br />

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis progamis xelmZRvaneli<br />

ivan suxovi<br />

istoriis menoerebaTa k<strong>and</strong>idati,<br />

gazeT `moskovskie novostis~ politikis<br />

ganyofilebis redaqtoris moadgile<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasia, geografiuli TvalsazrisiT, warmoadgens rusulqarTuli<br />

urTierTobebis umniSvnelovanes faqtors: saqarTvelo ruseTis<br />

federaciis Svidi Crdilokavkasiuri respublikidan eqvss esazRvreba.<br />

istoriulad ruseTma CrdiloeT kavkasiis kolonizacia swored<br />

saqarTveloSi dasamkvidreblad moaxdina. 1991 wels saqarTvelos,<br />

azerbaijanisa da somxeTis mier suverenitetis mopovebam garkveulwilad<br />

moSala ruseTis mier am rTuli teritoriis SenarCunebis motivaciis sistema.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis faqtori mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdenda rusulqarTuli<br />

urTierTobebis Camoyalibebaze sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg _<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasia aqtiurad iyo Cabmuli qarTul-afxazur da qarTulsamxreTosur<br />

konfliqtebSi, isini ki, Tavis mxriv, pirdapir da irib gavlenas<br />

axdendnen CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi mimdinare procesebze.<br />

ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebam moaxdina nawilobrivi<br />

reanimacia Crdilokavkasiuri eTnonacionalisturi moZraobebisa, rasac<br />

2000-iani wlebisTvis praqtikulad dakarguli hqonda popularoba. meore<br />

mxriv, `08.08.08~ omi ruseTis mier kavkasiaSi Zalis gamoyenebisTvis<br />

mzadyofnis demonstracia gaxda.<br />

zogadad, viTareba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi xasiaTdeba gauaresebis tendenciiT,<br />

rac vlindeba socialur-ekonomikuri maCveneblebiT, ise arqaizaciis,<br />

islamis <strong>for</strong>mebis gavrcelebis, ruseTis danarCeni teritoriisgan<br />

gaucxoebis saxiT 21 . izrdeba ormxrivi gaRizianeba ruseTis mosaxleobis did<br />

nawilsa da misi Crdilokavkasiuri teritoriebis 22 warmomadgenelTa Soris,<br />

romelic, magaliTad, 2010 wels moskovSi eTnikur niadagze momxdar<br />

areulobebSi gadaizarda.<br />

21 magaliTisaTvis ix.: Human Rights Watch-is moxseneba «Женщина должна знать свое место» о<br />

насильственном насаждении исламской этики во взаимоотношениях полов в Чечне -<br />

http://www.hrw.org/ru/reports/2011/03/10-0 или «Расплата за детей» о внесудебном насилии в отношении<br />

представителей семей боевиков - http://www.hrw.org/ru/reports/2009/07/01-0<br />

22 2011 wlis 22 ivliss ruseTis mecnierebaTa akademiis sociologiis institutma germanul<br />

ebertis fondTan erTad warmoadgina socialuri gamokvleva _ `rusebis TvaliT danaxuli<br />

re<strong>for</strong>mebis oci weli~. gamokvlevis me-12 Tavi mTlianad eZRvneba eTnikuri identobis<br />

sakiTxebs. qveynis mosaxleobis rus da ararus nawilebs Soris arsebuli erTmaneTis mimarT<br />

gaucxoebis done da sakuTari jgufis interesebis dasacavad ZaladobisTvis mzaoba<br />

gvafiqrebinebs, rom ruseTi rus umravlesobasa da ZiriTadad kavkasiuri warmoSobis<br />

umciresobebs Soris mosalodneli Sida eTnikuri konfliqtis zRvarzea. institutma<br />

gamoaqveyna moxsenebis eleqtronuli versia, mzaddeba qaRaldze dabeWdili publikaciac. me-12<br />

Tavis ZiriTadi cifrebis naxva msurvelebs SeuZliaT `moskovskie novostis~ publikaciaSi:<br />

http://mn.ru/newspaper_country/20110623/302724641.html

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Tuki es tendencia SenarCundeba, maSin saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi<br />

CrdiloeTi kavkasia SeiZleba faqtoridan, romelic periodulad da<br />

lokalurad moqmedebda rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis destabilizaciaze,<br />

gadaiqces Cveni qveynebis gamyof arastabilurobis mTlian zonad. aseT<br />

viTarebaSi saqarTvelo dainteresebulia uSualod mis sazRvrebTan<br />

mimdinare procesebis monitoringis sistemis SeqmniT (risi gakeTebac<br />

SeuZlebelia calmxriv reJimSi) da sasazRvro regionebTan yvela doneze<br />

kavSirebis damyarebiT. saqarTvelo am mimarTulebiT ukve dgams raRac<br />

nabijebs, magram es yovelTvis ar aris nakarnaxevi mkacrad pragmatuli<br />

miznebiT da warmoadgens ruseTis zewolaze sapasuxo politikur zomebs.<br />

axali Crdilokavkasiuri politikis agebisas saqarTvelo iqceva, rogorc<br />

normaluri regionuli saxelmwifo, magram, cxadia, rom Tbiliss yovelTvis<br />

ar SeuZlia aqtualuri Crdilokavkasiuri situaciis obieqturi analizi.<br />

kerZod, Cerqezul sazogadoebriv organizaciebTan kontaqtebis<br />

gaaqtiurebisas qarTuli mxare xSirad srulad ar iTvaliswinebs regionSi<br />

CerqezTa mezoblebis (magaliTad, yaraCaul-balyaruli jgufisa da eTnikuri<br />

rusebis) interesebs.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan sakuTar urTierTobebs saqarTvelo afxazeTsa da<br />

samxreT oseTSi konfliqtebis gamocdilebis konteqstiT da am gamocdilebis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiT agebs. saqarTvelos axsovs, rogor axdenda ruseTi am<br />

konfliqtebSi saqarTvelos moqmedebis demonizirebas da faqtobrivad<br />

rogor CaiTria Crdilokavkasiuri eTnosebi saqarTvelos teritoriaze<br />

mimdinare konfliqtebSi TviTgamocxadebuli respublikis mxares. am<br />

gamocdilebis argaTvaliswineba SeuZlebelia, magram dRev<strong>and</strong>el situaciaSi<br />

ufro mizanSewonilad gvesaxeba urTierTobebis ageba, Tu `sufTa<br />

furclidan~ ara, Zveli gamocdilebis SeZlebisdagvarad abstrahirebiT<br />

mainc, romlis farglebSic garedan Semotanilma sqemebma daamaxinja did<br />

kavkasiaSi mcxovrebi mezobeli eTnosebis urTierTaRqma, daabrkola saerTo<br />

interesebis Zieba da saerTo miznis miRweva. dRes CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

saqarTvelos politikis gaaqtiureba didadaa nakarnaxevi saqarTvelos<br />

SiSiT, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaze ruseTis kontrolis dakargvis SemTxvevaSi<br />

kavkasiis mosaxleobis agresiuli nawilis interesTa obieqti swored<br />

prodasavluri da sekularuli saqarTvelo gaxdeba. bunebrivia, saqarTvelo<br />

dainteresebulia, rom gamyardes saqarTvelos _ regionuli centrisa da<br />

eTnikur-religiuri tolerantobis magaliTis _ statusi. amave dros<br />

saqarTvelos gacnobierebuli aqvs, rom stabiluri CrdiloeTi kavkasia<br />

albaT aris erTaderTi saerTo interesi ruseTTan, romlis safuZvelzec<br />

Serigebis procesis ageba SesaZlebelia `aq da axla~.<br />

Tavis mxriv, ruseTi cdilobs, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi qarTuli politikis<br />

gaaqtiureba am regionis destabilizaciisken gadadgmul mtrul qmedebad<br />

axsnas (marTalia, yovelTvis ase ar xdeba, magram niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia, rom<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis macxovrebelTaTvis sazRvris Tavisuflad gadakveTis<br />

SemoRebasTan dakavSirebiT ruseTis reaqcia sakmaod TavSekavebuli iyo).<br />

amasTanave, ruseTi Tavadvea dainteresebuli strategiulad, rom misi<br />

saqarTvelosTan sazRvari iqces magar zurgad, romelsac SeiZleba daeyrdno<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi sakuTari Sida problemebis gadaWrisas. cxadia, is<br />

`sayrdeni punqtebi~, romlebic ruseTma 2008 wlis agvistos omis Sedegad<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi miiRo, aseTi amocanis gadasawyvetad ar<br />

gamodgeba. naTelia isic, rom uaxloes perspeqtivaSi ruseTsa da<br />

saqarTvelos SeuZliaT da unda gamonaxon kidec did kavkasiaSi<br />

urTierTqmedebis orive mxarisTvis misaRebi algoriTmebi ise, rom ar Seexon<br />

29

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Znelad mosagvarebel sakiTxs am teritoriebis statusis Sesaxeb.<br />

winamdebare gamokvleva pirvel rigSi exeba Crdilokavkasiuri situaciis<br />

aqtualobis analizs rusuli da qarTuli TvalsazrisiT (am Tvalsazrisebis<br />

dapirispirebis gareSe SeuZlebelia rame saxis konstruqciuli miznis<br />

dasaxva), xolo Semdeg ki _ zemoT xsenebuli urTierTqmedebebis<br />

algoriTmebis Ziebas.<br />

kvleviTi sakiTxebi<br />

- CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi situaciis aqtualobis analizi socialurekonomikuri,<br />

politikuri, eTnikuri, konfesiuri TvalsazrisiT _ ra<br />

gamowvevebia sadReisod da rogoria regionis ganviTarebis samomavlo<br />

scenarebi?<br />

- ruseTis federaciis mier 2010 wels gatarebuli zomebis analizi,<br />

mimarTuli CrdiloeT kavkasiis stabilizaciisken _ rogor pasuxobs<br />

Crdilokavkasiur gamowvevebs ruseTi?<br />

- saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mier gatarebuli zomebis analizi,<br />

mimarTuli sasazRvro TanamSromlobisken _ rogor pasuxobs<br />

Crdilokavkasiur gamowvevebs saqarTvelo?<br />

- rogori SeiZleba iyos erToblivi pasuxebi?<br />

- ra rols TamaSobs dRev<strong>and</strong>eli saxiT afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi<br />

kavkasiaSi ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTqmedebis sistemaSi, SeiZleba Tu<br />

ara am rolis Secvla da Tuki SeiZleba, rogor da ra droSi?<br />

meTodologia<br />

kvleva Catarda Sesaswavli regionis Sesaxeb ukanasknel monacemebze<br />

dayrdnobiT, rac miRebulia rogorc uSualod mkvlevarTa mivlinebebis<br />

Sedegad, ise samTavrobo Tu damoukidebeli xasiaTis gamoqveynebuli<br />

wyaroebidan. gaanalizda samTavrobo statistikuri organizciebis, regionuli<br />

administraciebis, arasamTavrobo, sazogadoebrivi da uflebadamcveli<br />

gaerTianebebis in<strong>for</strong>macia. teqstSi aseve gamoyenebulia samarTaldamcveli<br />

struqturebis Ria statistika, romelic CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi kvlavac<br />

mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs. praqtikuli rekomendaciebis SemuSavebis<br />

mcdeloba moxda Segrovebuli masalebis Seswavlis safuZvelze.<br />

adresatebi<br />

- qveynebis politikuri xelmZRvaneloba, yvelaze farTo gagebiT<br />

(prezidentebis administraciebi, mTavrobebi, xelisuflebis<br />

sakanonmdeblo organoebi);<br />

- aRmasrulebeli struqturebi, kompeteciis stuqturasTan Sesabamisad<br />

(Sinagan saqmeTa saministro, sagareo saqmeTa saministro, kulturis<br />

saministro, saqarTvelos integraciis samistro, ruseTis regionebis<br />

samistro (`minregion~);<br />

- orive qveynis regionuli xelisufleba;<br />

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- dainteresebuli adgilobrivi sazogadoebrivi da saerTaSorios<br />

organizaciebi.<br />

2. CrdiloeT kavkasia: tendenciebi da ganviTarebis prognozi<br />

a. 1990-2011 wlebis ZiriTadi movlenebi ruseTis CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi:<br />

- 1990-1991 ww. _ `suverenitetebis aRlumi~: deklaracia yaraCai-<br />

CerqezeTisa da adiReuri avtonomiuri olqebis respublikebad<br />

gadakeTebis Sesaxeb, deklaraciebi avtonomiuri respublikebis<br />

respublikebad gadakeTebis Sesaxeb, deklaracia CeCneTis saxelmwifo<br />

suverenitetis Sesaxeb. sabWoTa kavSiris daSla.<br />

- 1992 w. — CeCneTSi rusuli jaris Seyvana. osur-inguSuri konfliqti<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis prigorodni raionSi.<br />

- 1993 w. _ samoqalaqo omis dasawyisi CeCneTSi.<br />

- 1994-1996 ww. _ pirveli omi CeCneTSi.<br />

- 1996-1997 ww. _ xasaviurtis SeTanxmeba cecxlis Sewyvetis Sesaxeb,<br />

SeTanxmeba CeCneTis gadadebuli statusis Sesaxeb, ruseTis jarebis<br />

CeCneTidan gayvana, CeCneTis prezidentis arCevnebi.<br />

- 1999-2000 ww. _ CeCeni `boevikebis~ SeWra daRestanSi, meore omi CeCneTSi.<br />

- 2000 w. _ samxreT federaluri olqis (sfo) Seqmna stavropolis mxaris,<br />

krasnodaris mxaris, adiReis respublikis, yaraCai-CerqezeTis, yabardobalyareTis,<br />

CrdiloeT oseT - alaniis, inguSeTis, CeCneTis, daRestnis,<br />

yalmuyeTis, astraxanis olqis, volgogradis olqisa da rostovis<br />

olqis SemadgenlobiT.<br />

- teroristuli aqti da mZevlebis ayvana moskovSi (`nord-osti~).<br />

- 2003 w. _ CeCneTis konstituciasTan dakavSirebuli referendumi,<br />

romelic respublikas ruseTis SemadgenlobaSi abrunebs.<br />

- 2004 w. _ teraqti CeCneTis prezidentis ahmad kadirovis winaaRmdeg,<br />

`boevikebis~ Seteva nazranze (inguSeTi) da teroristuli aqti beslanSi.<br />

regionebis xelmZRvanelebis pirdapiri gziT arCevaze uaris Tqma.<br />

- 2005 w. _ `boevikebis~ Seteva nalCikze (yabardo-balyareTi).<br />

- 2007 w. _ CeCneTis prezidentad ramzan kadirovis daniSvna. CeCneTis<br />

SeiaraRebuli iatakqveSeTis meTauris doku umarovis mier `kavkasiis<br />

saamiros~ gamocxadeba da CrdiloeT kavkasiis mTel teritoriaze omis<br />

gamocxadeba SariaTis saboloo gamarjvebamde.<br />

- 2008 w. _ omi saqarTvelosTan da afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiareba. opoziciis aqtiuroba inguSeTSi, krizisi<br />

inguSeTSi.<br />

- 2009 w. _ CeCneTSi kontrteroristuli operaciis oficialurad<br />

dasruleba.<br />

- 2010 w. _ CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaciuli olqis (Ckfo) Seqmna<br />

stavropolis mxaris, daRestanis, CeCneTis, inguSeTis, CrdiloeT<br />

oseTis _ alaniis, yabardo-balyareTis, yaraCai-CerqezeTis<br />

31

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SemadgenlobiT. aleqs<strong>and</strong>re xloponinis prezidentis uflebamosil<br />

warmomadgenlad daniSnva.<br />

a1. Crdilo kavkasiis federaluri olqis eTnikuri Semadgenloba: ZiriTadi<br />

jgufebi<br />

(CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri olqis ganviTarebis strategiis monacemebi<br />

2025 wlamde) 23<br />

eTnikuri jgufi ricxovnoba (adamiani)<br />

32<br />

wili Crdilokavkasiis<br />

federaluri olqis<br />

SemadgenlobaSi (%)<br />

rusebi 2 743 000 29,9<br />

CeCnebi 1 485 200 16,2<br />

avarielebi (xunZebi) 785 300 8,5<br />

yabardoelebi 511 700 5,6<br />

darguelebi 488 800 5,3<br />

osebi 476 500 5,2<br />

inguSebi 462 200 5,0<br />

yumuxebi 399 100 4,3<br />

lezgebi 359 500 3,9<br />

yaraCaelebi 187 600 2,0<br />

lakebi 148 000 1,6<br />

balyarelebi 106 800 1,2<br />

a 2. CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi eTnikuri konfliqtebis `nomenklatura~<br />

- daRestanis/azerbaijanis gayofili xalxebis problema (lezgebis,<br />

Tabasaranelebis, waxebis, avarielebis).<br />

- problema avarielebsa da avariul subeTnikur jgufebs Soris,<br />

romlebic uars amboben avarielebad TviTidentificirebaze.<br />

- yumuxebsa da avarielebs/darguelebs Soris arsebuli problema,<br />

romelic ukavSirdeba mTieli avarielebisa da darguelebis<br />

ukontrolo gadanacvlebas yumuxTa kuTvnil dablob teritoriaze.<br />

yumuxuri municipalitetebis nawili mahaCyalis SemadgenlobaSia<br />

Seyvanili da dakarguli aqvs eTnikuri TviTmmarTveloba. yumuxebi<br />

miiCneven, rom darRveulia saxelisuflebo organoebSi maTi<br />

warmomadgenlobiToba.<br />

- problema lakebs, CeCnebsa da yumuxebs Soris novolakisa da axali<br />

novolakis raionebSi: 1992 wels lakebma miiRes gadawyvetileba<br />

novolakSi sakuTari miwebi daeTmoT CeCnebisTvis, romelTac es miwebi<br />

1944 wlis deportaciamde ekuTvnodaT. samagierod maT zRvasTan<br />

mdebare yumuxuri miwebi miiRes. realurad ki, lakebs gasaxleba ar<br />

23 CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri olqis 2025 wlamde socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis<br />

strategiis monacemebiT, romelic oficialurad gamoqveynebulia ruseTis federaciis<br />

mTavrobis saitze 2010 wlis 4 oqtombers: http://government.ru/gov/results/12423/

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undaT da CeCnebTan konfliqti aqvT. xolo im lakebs, romlebic mainc<br />

gamosaxldnen, konfliqti aqvT yumuxebTan.<br />

- rusi mosaxleobis gamodevna daRestnidan da CrdiloeT kavkasiidan<br />

mTlianobaSi, amis paralelurad konfliqtebis zrdis problema Zireul<br />

rusul mosaxleobasa da kavkasiidan migrantebs Soris tradiciul<br />

rusul regionebSi _ stavropolsa da CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri<br />

olqis farglebs gareT.<br />

- inguSeTs da CeCneTs Soris teritoriebis gamijvnis problema (CeCneTs<br />

pretenzia aqvs sunJenis raionze da malobekskis rionis navTobiT<br />

mdidar nawilze).<br />

- prigorodni raionSi osur-CeCnuri konfliqtis Sedegebis likvidaciis<br />

problema: im inguSTa dabruneba, romlebmac prigorodni raioni 1992<br />

wels datoves, grZeldeba, rac anaRvlebs osebs, romlebsac esmiT, rom<br />

inguSTa Soris Sobadobis ufro maRali donis gamo raioni sul male,<br />

administaraciuli sazRvris <strong>for</strong>maluri gadatanis gareSec, gaxdeba<br />

inguSuri da musulmanuri.<br />

- yabardo-balyareTSi yabardoelebsa da balyarelebs Soris soflebs Sua<br />

arsebuli miwebis problema.<br />

- yaraCai-CerqezeTSi Cerqezebis politikuri warmomadgenlobis<br />

problema. masobrivi Cxubebi.<br />

- `didi CerqezeTis~ da `didi balyareTis~ proeqtebi.<br />

a3. CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi situaciis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi tendenciebi.<br />

maTi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs:<br />

- eTnikuri radikalizaciis religiuri radikalizaciiT Canacvleba;<br />

- radikaluri islamis momxreebis raodenobis zrdis tempis aCqareba,<br />

gansakuTrebiT _ axalgazrdobaSi;<br />

- iatakqveSeTis gaaxalgazrdaveba, romelic ibrZvis islamisTvis da uars<br />

ambobs eTnikur CarCoebze;<br />

- axalgazrdobis ganaTlebuli da uzrunvelyofili fenis<br />

radikalizacia;<br />

- tradiciuli islamis radikalizacia;<br />

- xelisuflebis mimarT mosaxleobis dakarguli ndobis aRdgena;<br />

- `boevikTa~ gavlenis zrda, maTi SeRweva biznessa (rogorc reketis, ise<br />

Tanamonawileobis saxiT) da xelisuflebaSi (emuqreba saxelmwifo<br />

moxeleebs, SeiaraRebuli Zalis saxiT monawileobs elitis SigniT<br />

mimdinare konfliqtebSi, SesaZlebelia pirdapir moqmedebdes calkeul<br />

municipalur arCevnebze);<br />

- federaluri samarTlis moqmedebis sivrcis Sekveca da SariaTis<br />

moqmedebis sivrcis gafarToeba;<br />

- CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri olqis proeqtis savaraudo Cavardna,<br />

radgan xloponins ar hqonda sakmarisi uflebamosileba da jerovnad<br />

ver Seafasa sakuTari moRvaweobis sferoebi, garda ekonomikisa;<br />

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- respublikebis xelmZRvanelebis k<strong>and</strong>itatebis SerCevisas `sufTa<br />

dosieze~ da adgilobrivi gavleniani jgufebidan Tanabar distanciaze<br />

yofnis principze uaris Tqma;<br />

- momavali samTo-saTxilamuro kurortis saxiT damatebiTi<br />

korufciogenuri klasterebis Seqmna;<br />

- Sobadobis zrda, muSaxelis metoba adgilobriv SromiT bazarze,<br />

ruseTSi SromiTi migraciis zrda, romlis fonze kavkasiuri<br />

axalgazrdobis TviTSegnebis cvlileba iwvevs TemTa Soris<br />

konfliqturobis zrdas recipient regionebSi, risi Sedegicaa ruseTSi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis gamoyofis ideis popularizacia.<br />

2005-2008 wlebis `dazaveba~, misi pirobebi da dasrulebis mizezebi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi saqmis amJamindeli mdgomareobis gasagebad, romelsac<br />

SeiZleba vuwodoT mzardi arastabiluroba, saWiroa vicodeT, rom 2005 wlis<br />

Semodgomasa da 2008 wlis zafxuls Soris periodi am rusuli teritoriisTvis<br />

iyo SedarebiTi simSvidis droebiTi xana. 2004 weli ki aSkarad unda Sefasdes<br />

aramdgradi wonasworobis wlad. am wlis maisSi CeCneTSi teraqtis Sedegad<br />

mokles respublikis pirveli, ruseTis mimarT loialurad ganwyobili<br />

prezidenti axmad kadirovi, ivnisSi `boevikTa~ didi jgufi Tavs daesxa<br />

inguSeTs, 1-3 seqtembers ki moxda beslanis (CrdiloeT oseTi) tragedia,<br />

rodesac teroristebma daikaves skolis Senoba da iq myofebi mZevlebad<br />

aiyvanes.<br />

Semdeg teraqtebis raodenoba Semcirda: 2005 wels moxda 257 teraqti, 2006 wels<br />

_ 112, 2007 wels _ mxolod 48. SedarebisTvis: 2008 wels teraqtebis ricxvma<br />

576-s miaRwia 24 . 2005 wlis Semodgomaze Catarda `boevikTa~ ukanaskneli msxvili<br />

aqcia _ 13 oqtombers yabardo-balyareTis dedaqalaq nalCikSi iatakqveSeTis<br />

200-mde SeiaraRebuli warmomadgeneli Tavs daesxa TxuTmetamde samxedro da<br />

miliciis obieqts. mas Semdeg am masStabis aqcia aRar ganmeorebula.<br />

2005-2008 wlebSi kavkasiis SedarebiTi stabilizacia Semdegi viTarebebiT<br />

aixsneba:<br />

— saerTo ekonomikuri zrda qveyanaSi. ruseTis ekonomikis keTildReobis<br />

zrdam araTu CrdiloeT kavkaiis regionebis dasaxmarebeli sabiujeto<br />

transferebis gafarToebis saSualeba Seqmna, aramed gazarda am<br />

respublikebis im mkvidrTa Semosavali, romlebic kavkasiis gareT, sxva<br />

rusul regionebSi muSaoben da fuls saxlSi agzavnian. TveSi damatebiT<br />

50-100-ma dolarma Taviseburi `usafrTxoebis baliSis~ roli Seasrula.<br />

— stabilizacia CeCneTSi. ramzan kadirovis gavlenis zrdasTan erTad<br />

mkvdari wertilidan daiZra groznos aRdgenis procesi. kadirovma<br />

moaxerxa sakuTar personaze CeCeni eTnonacionalistebis mniSvnelovani<br />

nawilis yuradRebis koncentrireba da nacionaluri ideis imgvari<br />

gardaqmna, rom faqtobrivad ruseTis momxreebisa da ruseTis yofili<br />

mowinaaRmdegeebisgan Camoayaliba koaliciuri xelisufleba 25 . CeCneTi<br />

24 boris nemcovisa da vladimir milovis analitikuri moxsenebis _ «Путин. Итоги» _<br />

monacemebi, rac arebulia ruseTis zalovani struqturebis Ria wyaroebidan.<br />

http://www.putin-itogi.ru/doklad/#5<br />

25 ix.: Алексей Малашенко. Рамзан Кадыров – российский политик кавказской национальности. – Москва:<br />

РОССПЭН, 2009. - http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=35922<br />

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aRar iyo kavkasiis diversuli omis motori, rogorc 1991 wlidan 2004<br />

wlamde, rodesac gascemda ideebs, fuls, iaraRsa da samxedro<br />

gamocdilebas. CeCnuri eTnikuri nacionalizmi ukve aRar gvevlineba am<br />

motoris sawvavad _ swored amitom mouxda doku umarovs islamuri<br />

saamiros gamocxadeba, separatistuli iCqeriis nacvlad.<br />

— mTeli rigi SedarebiT warmatebuli sakadro gadawyvetilebebisa. 2004<br />

wlidan 2007 wlamde prezidentis uflebamosili warmomadgeneli<br />

samxreT federalur olqSi _ dimitri kozaki. 2005 wlidan CrdiloeT<br />

oseTis xelmZRvaneli _ Taimuraz mamsurovi, yabardo-balyareTis<br />

prezidenti _ arsen kanokovi, 2006-2010 ww. daRestanis prezidenti —<br />

muxu alievi, 2008-2011 ww. yaraCai-CerqezeTis prezidenti _ boris<br />

ebzeevi, 2008 wlidan inguSeTis prezidenti _ iunus-beg evkurovi. yvela<br />

es daniSnva, rogorc Cans, strategiuli varaudidan gamomdinare<br />

xdeboda: `variagTa~_ sufTa dosies mqone, warmatebul pirTa daniSnvas,<br />

romlebsac kavSiri ar aqvT adgilobrivi gavlenis sferoebTan,<br />

korufciis da klanurobis problemis daZlevisTvis unda Seewyo xeli.<br />

realurad axal liderTa iniciativebi swrafadve CaaxSes adgilze<br />

Camoyalibebuli eTnikuri biurokratiiT, magram TiToeuli es daniSnva<br />

mosaxleobis mxridan xelisuflebis mimarT ndobas aZlierebda, radgan<br />

xalxs ukeTesobisken cvlilebebis imedi uCndeboda.<br />

am samive faqtorma erTad Seqmna daaxloebiT ori-or-naxevari wlis<br />

xangrZlivobis stabilizaciis `fanjara~, romelic sakmaod mniSvnelovania iseT<br />

kritikul pirobebSi, rogoric aqvs ruseTs CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi.<br />

2008 wels, agvistos meore dekadis dasawyisSi msoflio bazarze navTobis fasi<br />

erT barelze 100 dolaramde daeca. gamoricxuli araa, rom swored es gaxda<br />

saqarTveloSi 8 agvistodan moyolebuli ruseTis SeWris iribi mizezi.<br />

msoflio krizisma ruseTSi ekonomikuri vardna gamowvia. amiT praqtikulad<br />

moxda Crdilokavkasiuri droebiTi `zavis matarebeli sami veSapidan~ erTerTis<br />

torpedireba.<br />

2007 wels sxva Tanamdebobaze iqna gadayvarnili prezidentis uflebamosili<br />

warmomadgeneli samxreT federalur olqSi dimitri kozaki, olqis erTaderTi<br />

`mefisnacvali~, romelmac adgilobriv mosaxleobaSi popularoba da<br />

pativiscema moipova. `dazavebis~ periodSi daniSnuli Tanamdebobis pirebis<br />

ndobis krediti amoiwura an iwureba, yovel regionSi daniSnvis droisa da<br />

situaciis mixedviT. 2010 wlidan kremlma mianiSna, rom damTavrda iseT<br />

`variagTa~ daniSnvis strategia, romlebic ar iyvnen dakavSirebuli<br />

adgilobriv sistemebTan: amaze metyvelebs 2010 wels daRestanSi muxu alievis<br />

muhamedaslan magamedoviT Secvla (anu xelisuflebaSi im gavleniani jgufebis<br />

dabruneba, romlebic iq 2006 wlamde imyofebodnen) da analogiurad yaraCai-<br />

CerqezeTis prezidentis boris ebzeevis Secvla raSid termezoviT. am<br />

ukanaknelma Canacvlebam yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublikaSi da mTlianad<br />

kavkasiaSi aSkara imedgacrueba gamoiwvia, radgan cxadia, rom temrezovi<br />

yaraCai-CerqezeTis yofili (2003-2008 ww.) prezidentis da misi kriminali siZis<br />

alia kaitovis interesebs warmoadgenda.<br />

amasTanave, sakmaod araerTmniSvnelovania viTareba CeCneTSi: kadirovis<br />

popularobis zrdis periodi, rogorc Cans, dasrulda an dasasruls<br />

uaxlovdeba. savaraudod, es ukavSirdeba putinis saprezidento<br />

uflebamosilebis damTavrebas, rodesac kadirovis federalur doneze<br />

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gavlenis sakvanZo meqanizmmac ganicada de<strong>for</strong>mireba. aRsaniSnavia, rom swored<br />

<strong>for</strong>mati `prezidenti kadirovi _ prezidenti putini~, rac SeuZlebelia<br />

medvedevis mmarTvelobis periodSi, iyo kadirovis popularobis erT-erTi<br />

mTavari sayrdeni respublikaSi. kadirovis reJimis dasustebaze metyvelebs<br />

aseve 2010 wels `boevikebs~ Soris momxdari ganxeTqileba da sakuTriv CeCnuri<br />

diversiuli iatakqveSeTis gaaqtiureba. jerjerobiT `zavis CeCeni veSapi~<br />

yvelaze naklebad dazaralda, magram misi mdgomareoba arasaimedoa 26 .<br />

zemoT CamoTvlil sam faqtors unda davumatoT kavkasiis saamiros<br />

gamocxadebis Semdgomi iatakveSeTis gaaqtiureba, aseve eTnonacionalisturi<br />

moZraobebis gaZliereba, gansakuTrebiT _ ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da oseTis<br />

separatistuli reJimebis aRiarebis Semdeg da 2014 wlis olimpiadis<br />

molodinSi, radgan mxolod olimpiadis geografiuli lokalizaciac ki e.w.<br />

`Cerqezuli~ sakiTxis gamwvavebas iwvevs.<br />

amrigad, darwmunebiT SeiZleba laparaki, rom 2008 wlis zafxulidan kavkasiam<br />

arastabilurobis axal periodSi Seabija. amaze metyvelebs, magaliTad,<br />

teraqtebis ricxvis dinamikis statistikac (48, 576, 786, Sesabamisad, _ 2007,<br />

2008, 2009 wlebSi) da teroristuli omis dabruneba moskovSi (2010 wlis martSi<br />

metroSi da 2011 wlis ianvarSi domodedovos aeroportSi momxdari<br />

rezonansuli teraqtebi 27 ).<br />

g. geografiuli zonebi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasia SeiZleba pirobiTad daiyos sam zonad.<br />

pirveli _ CeCneTi, romelsac CrdiloeT kavkasiis aRmosavleT nawilis sxva<br />

regionebTan saerTo naTesauri niSnebi aqvs, magram Tavisi uaxlesi saomari<br />

istoriis gamo maTgan sakmaodac gansxvavdeba.<br />

meore _ sakuTriv aRmosavleTi kavkasioni, anu daRestani da inguSeTi. am<br />

zonisaTvis (da aseve mniSvnelovanwilad CeCneTisaTvisac) damaxasiaTebelia<br />

sabWoTa periodTan SedarebiT Sromis nayofierebisa da ekonomikuri<br />

efeqtianobis mniSvnelovani vardna, dakninebuli infrastruqtura, aq<br />

praqtikulad aRar arsebobs eTnikurad rusi mosaxleoba, romelic 1990 wlebis<br />

dasawyisisTvis mniSvnelovan jgufs Seadgenda. aqauri xalxi erTgulia islamis<br />

26 putinis prezidentobidan wasvlis Semdeg kadirovis lobisturi resursebi moskovsa da<br />

kremlSi aSkarad SeizRuda. arsebobs ramdenime sasamarTlo procesi, romelTa msvlelobac<br />

mowmobs medvedevis mmarTvelobisas kadirovis politikuri mdgomareobis arasaimedoobaze:<br />

amis magaliTia, kerZod, uflebadamcvel centr `memorialis~ Tavmjdomare oleg orlovis<br />

kadirovis winaaRmdeg warmoebuli procesi, romelic orlovis gamamarTlebeli ganaCeniT<br />

dasrulda (http://www.memo.ru/2011/06/14/orlov.htm) an 2008 wlis 24 seqtembers ruseTis gmir ruslan<br />

iamadaevis mkvlelobis Semsruleblebis sasamarTlo procesi. 2011 wlis 6 ivniss uzenaesma<br />

sasamarTlom daamtkica mkvlelobis SemsrulebelTa ganaCeni (http://news.rambler.ru/10122675/), rac<br />

warmoudgeneli iyo adre, putinis periodSi. gamaognebelia rusuli procesebis sinqronizacia<br />

venaSi (avstria) mokluli kadirovis yofil mcvel umar israilovis saqmesTan, sadac CeCneTis<br />

Tavkaci misTvis arcTu saxarbielo konteqstSi Cans (http://www.memo.ru/2010/12/02/0212101.html.).<br />

magaliTad, CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi kurortebis mSeneblobis proeqtSi, romelic 2010 wels d.<br />

medvedevma wamoayena (ix. qvemoT), CeCneTi ar Sedis. putinis lobisturi mxardaWeriTa da<br />

ruslan baisarovis fuliT kadirovi Tavad, calke aSenebs CeCnur kurort veduCis itum-kalinis<br />

raionSi.<br />

27 teraqti domodedovos aeroportSi moxda 2011 wlis 24 ianvars. daiRupa 38 kaci, maT Soris<br />

savaraudo TviTmkvlelic, daSavda 170 adamiani. 2010 wlis 29 marts moskovis metropolitenSi<br />

moxda ormagi teraqti _ metrosadgurebze `lubianka~ da `park kulturi~; daiRupa 40 kaci,<br />

daSavda _ 88.<br />

36

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specifikuri moZRvrebisa, romelic SedarebiT ufro mgrZnobiarea garedan<br />

Semotanili radikaluri mimdinareobebis mimarT.<br />

mesame zona _ dasavleTi kavkasia: CrdiloeT oseTi, yabardo-balyareTi,<br />

yaraCai-CerqezeTi. aq ekonomikuri vardna ar aris iseTi Rrma,<br />

infrastruqturac ufro ganviTarebulia, rusebi jer kidev Seadgenen<br />

mosaxleobis 15-40 procents, adgilobrivi islami ki naklebad mgrZnobiarea<br />

radikaluri mimdinareobebis mimarT.<br />

ganvixiloT CrdiloeT kavkasiis TiToeul am zonaSi arsebuli viTareba.<br />

zogadad Cans, rom gansxvaveba aRmosavleTsa da dasavleTs Soris iSleba da es,<br />

samwuxarod, xdeba ara aRmosavleTiT viTarebis gaumjobesebis, aramed,<br />

piriqiT, dasavleTiT problemebis gaRrmavebis gamo.<br />

d. CeCneTi<br />

CeCneTSi situacia araerTgvarovania. erTi mxriv, is aSkarad lideria<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi rogorc federaluri kapitaldab<strong>and</strong>ebis, rac weliwadSi<br />

60 miliard rubls aRemateba 28 , ise socialur-ekonomikur sferoSi momxdari<br />

cvlilebebis pozitiuri dinamikis TvalsazrisiT. ufro marTebuli iqneboda,<br />

Tu vityodiT, rom sxva, CeCneTis garSemo respublikebSi aranairi cvlileba<br />

ukeTesobisaken ar SeimCneva, xolo CeCneTi, romelic ori omis Semdeg didxans<br />

iyo nangrevebad qceuli, warmoadgenda ra im gzis savalalo Sedegs, romliTac<br />

siaruli ar Rirs, dRes mezobelTa Suris sagnad iqceva. q. grozno mTlianad<br />

aRdgenilia, Tanac sruliad sxva saxiT, vidre omamde _ dRes es Tanamedrove<br />

megapolisia, CrdiloeT kavkasiis yvelaze ganviTarebuli, keTilmowyobili da,<br />

rac mniSvnelovania, usafrTxo qalaqis ambiciiT. iq momxdari da mimdinare<br />

sasikeTo cvlilebebi yvelaze tovebs STabeWdilebas, Tanabrad stumrebzec da<br />

adgilobriv macxovreblebze, yvelaze, visac ki grozno da CeCneTi omis Semdeg<br />

unaxavs. miuxedavad gansxvavebuli reJimebisa, kavkasiaSi erTaderTi<br />

teritoria, romelic SeiZleba reJimTa TvasaCino gansxvavebebis miuxedavad,<br />

romelsac kavkasiaSi SeiZleba CeCneTi pozitiuri cvlilebebis tempis mixedviT<br />

SevadaroT, saqarTveloa.<br />

meore mxriv, mas Semdeg, rac 2008 wlis gazafxulze vladimer putinma datova<br />

prezidentis skami, de<strong>for</strong>macia ganicada CeCneTsa da federalur centrs Soris<br />

Camoyalibebulma urTierTobaTa sistemam, romelic didwilad putinisa da<br />

kadirovis pirad kavSirebs efuZneboda.<br />

mas Semdeg, rac 1999 wels CeCneTSi Sesulma ruseTma fsoni tradiciuli islamis<br />

zomier separatist-mimdevrebze (romelTac saTaveSi kadirovebis ojaxi edga)<br />

dado, CeCneTSi Seqmnili reJimis legitimuroba didwilad emyareboda jer axmad<br />

xoja-kadirovis, Semdeg ki, ufro metadac, misi vaJis _ ramzanis<br />

gansakuTrebul urTierTobas qveynis pirveli pirTan. ramzan kadirovma<br />

gamonaxa saSualeba mkvdari wertilidan daeZra omis Semdgomi CeCneTis<br />

aRorZineba, romelic xelisuflebaSi mis mosvlamde nangrevebad iyo qceuli.<br />

igi am saSualebas ver gamonaxavda, rom ara misi piradi kavSiri v. putinTan,<br />

rasac igi dRemde yoveldRiurad da sajarod adasturebs (rasac ver vityviT<br />

28 ruseTis federaciis finansTa saministros monacemebis mixedviT. am monacemTa analizs<br />

specialurad atarebs moskovis saxelmwifo universitetis profesori, socialuri politikis<br />

institutis dierqtori natalia zubareviCi. SedarebiT srulyofili saxiT mis mier Segrovebuli<br />

da warmodgenili monacemebi CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi daxarjuli federaluri biujetis saxsrebis<br />

Sesaxeb SegiZliaT ixiloT 2011 wlis 4 aprilis `moskovskie novostis~ publikaciebSi:<br />

http://mn.ru/politics/20110404/300841916.html da http://mn.ru/blog_caucasus/20110404/300857826.html<br />

37

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Tavad putinze, romelic amas gacilebiT iSviaTad akeTebs). v. putins CeCneTSi<br />

mxolod CeCnebis TvalSi kadirovis xelisuflebis legitimacia ar mouxdenia,<br />

man kadirovs aseve misca SesaZlebloba, rom federaluri biujetis garda<br />

praqtikulad SeuzRudavad esargebla wamyvani CeCeni biznesmenebis<br />

daxmarebebiT. amJamad swored es biznesmenebi arian groznoSi mimdinare<br />

mSeneblobebis ZiriTadi investorebi.<br />

amgvarad, prezident putinis mmarTvelobisas centris CeCneTTan<br />

urTierTqmedeba idealur sqemas miuaxlovda, romlis gavrcelebac moskovs<br />

sxva konfliqtur regionebSic aSkarad undoda. CeCneTis mTeli Sida politika,<br />

Zalovani sakiTxebis (TiTqmis mTlianad) CaTvliT, gadavida ramzan kadirovis<br />

xelSi, romelic angariSvaldebuli mxolod putinTan iyo. CeCneTis erTaderTi<br />

strategiuli resursi _ navTobi _ federaluri centris gankargulebaSi<br />

darCa. CeCneTSi navTobis moipoveba, Senaxva, gatana da gayidva kompania<br />

`rosneftis~ xelSia, romelsac kremli akontrolebs. kadirovi mudmivad<br />

moiTxovs mrewvelobis am dargis kontrolis misTvis gadacemas, magram albaT<br />

Tavadac esmis, rom es mcdelobebi Sedegs ar gamoiRebs. TumcaRa am sferoSic<br />

arsebobs kompromisis marcvali _ `rosneftis~ navTobmompovebeli da<br />

satransporto infrastruqturebi, aseve baqo-novorosiiskis strategiuli<br />

milsadenis CeCneTis monakveTis dacva daevala r. kadirovis mier<br />

kontrolirebad CeCneTis Sinagan saqmeTa saministros specrazmebs. milsadenis<br />

pirdapiri monopoliuri xelmisawvdomoba CeCneTSi tradiciulad niSnavs<br />

datacebis SesaZleblobas.<br />

niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia, rom 2010 wels `rosneftma~ mainc miiRo gadawyvetileba<br />

CeCneTSi weliwadSi milion tonamde simZlavris navTobgadamamuSavebeli<br />

qarxnis mSeneblobis Sesaxeb 29 .<br />

ramzan kadirovisa da dimitri medvedevis urTierToba, SesaZloa, imitom ver<br />

ewyoba, rom, putinisgan gansxvavebiT, medvedevs kadirovis winaSe aranairi<br />

piradi valdebuleba ar gaaCnia da zemoT xsenebul ara<strong>for</strong>malur garigebaSi mas<br />

monawileoba ar miuRia. CeCneTisadmi medvedviseuli damokidebuleba _ es aris<br />

ukve Camoyalibebuli rituali, rasac d. medvedevi aSkarad uxalisod asrulebs.<br />

amasTan, ar arsebobs damajerebeli cnoba imis Sesaxeb, rom medvedevi mzad iyos<br />

CeCneTis mmarTvelobis arsebuli sqemis re<strong>for</strong>mirebisaTvis (rac, pirvel rigSi,<br />

xelmZRvanelobis SecvliT gamoixateboda).<br />

2011 wlis martis dasawyisSi d. medvedevma r. kadirovi axali saprezidento<br />

vadiT daamtkica. es CeCneTis uaxles istoriaSi pirveli da ukanaskneli<br />

SemTxvevaa, rodesac respublikis Tanamdebobis umaRlesma pirma Tavisi<br />

mmarTvelobis vada mSvidobiT daasrula. am faqts SeiZleba vuwodoT wes-<br />

Cveulebebis Serbilebis Taviseburi niSani. da mainc, aSkaraa kadirovis<br />

`SenjRrevis~ mcdelobebi (rogorc Cans, CeCnuri bizneselitis mxridan,<br />

romelic `nebayoflobiTi~ fulis Cadebis sanacvlod dainteresebulia, rom<br />

ufro metad iyos CarTuli CeCneTis politikaSi, vidre dRes aris). magaliTad,<br />

2010-2011 wlebis zamTarSi, zustad kadirovis Tanamdebobaze xelaxla<br />

damtkicebis win, kremlis administraciis xelSi aRmoCnda fotodokumentebi,<br />

sadac asaxuli iyo, rogor sastikad uswordeboda kadirovi `boevikebis~<br />

29 amis Sesaxeb ix.: «Коммерсантъ» – http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/1315219<br />

niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia, rom omis dawyebamde (anu 1991-1994 ww.-mde) CeCneTSi maSin arsebuli<br />

navTobgadamamuSavebeli qarxnebis simZlavre Seadgenda 20-dan 24 milion tonamde weliwadSi,<br />

adgilobrivi mopoveba ki iyo 3-4 milioni tona, e.i. navTobgadamamuSavebeli qarxanaSi<br />

nedleulis sami meoTxed Semotanili iyo, rac dReisaTvis gamoricxulia. omamdeli<br />

navTobgadamamuSavebeli qarxnebi mTlianad dangreulia.<br />

38

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xelSemwyobebs qalaq arRunis milicielebis rigebidan. udavoa, rom aseTi<br />

mcdelobebi momavalSic gagrZeldeba.<br />

aseve safiqrebelia, rom kadirovis reJims CeCneTis SigniT stabilurobas ar<br />

waadgeba putini-medvedevis SesaZlo politikuri konfliqti, sadac kadirovi<br />

aucileblad putinis mxares iqneba. nebismier SemTxvevaSi, CeCneTSi kadirovis<br />

reJimis erT-erTi ZiriTadi sayrdeni da misi piradi popularoba<br />

ganpirobebulia imiT, rom kadirovs pirdapir miuwvdeba xeli moskovSi umaRles<br />

xelmZRvanelobasTan. rodesac (da Tuki) CeCneTis mosaxleobas am<br />

xelmisawvdomobaSi eWvi Seepareba, respublikaSi stabilurobisa da marTvis<br />

done maSinve Seicvleba.<br />

kadirovis warmateba aseve ukavSirdeboda imas, rom man faqtobrivad moaxerxa<br />

da moirgo CeCnebis erovnuli lideris `imiji~, ris Sedegadac miaRwia, rom<br />

SeiaraRebuli iatakqveSeTis im uzarmazari segmentisaTvis aeyara iaraRi da<br />

Tavis mxaresac gadmoebirebina, romelic ruseTs ara imdenad islamisTvis<br />

ebrZoda, ramdenadac CeCneTis TavisuflebisaTvis. magram aqac 2010 weli<br />

aRmoCnda gardamtexi. am wlis Semodgomaze dagegmili iyo CeCenTa msoflio<br />

kongresi, romlis Catarebasac r. kadirovi jer kidev 2009 wels gegmavda<br />

oficialurad separatistuli mTavrobis devnilobaSi myof xelmZRvanelTan _<br />

axmed zakaevTan erTad. es iqneboda damagvirgvinebeli nabiji, rac aqcevda<br />

kadirovs mTeli msoflios CeCnebis eTnikur liderad, magram ase ar moxda. 2009-<br />

2010 wlebis ganmavlobaSi mas da zakaevs urTierToba gaufuWdaT da 2010 wels<br />

Catarda ori kongresi: kadirovis versiiT _ CeCneTSi da zakaevis versiiT _<br />

poloneTSi 30 .<br />

garkveul momentamde a. zakaevis separatistuli mTavroba faqtobrivad aravis<br />

warmoadgenda. CeCnuri da mTlianad Crdilokavkasiuri iatakqveSeTis liderma<br />

doku umarovma 2007 wels uari Tqva CeCneTis damoukideblobisTvis brZolaze<br />

da gamoacxada `kavkasiis saamiro~ _ iatakqveSa kvazisaxelmwifo, romelic<br />

aRiarebs wminda brZolas, romelsac `al-qaida~ awarmoebs da mTel CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiaSi SariaTis damyarebisTvis ibrZvis. am koncefciaze, romelic<br />

dasavleTSi udavod Znelad `gasayidia~, a. zakaevma mrisxane uari Tqva da d.<br />

umarovma masze, rogorc moRalateze, maSinve Zebna gamoacxada. radgan d.<br />

umarovi iatakqveSeTis guneba-ganwyobas sakmaod realurad asaxavda, a. zakaevis<br />

partia sabolood damarcxebulad gamoiyureboda 2010 wlis zafxul-<br />

Semodgomamde, rodesac kavkasiuri iatakqveSeTis CeCnur segmentSi<br />

ganxeTqileba moxda. d. umarovis daqvemdebarebidan gamovida CeCeni savele<br />

meTaurebis nawili emir husein gakaevis meTaurobiT 31 .<br />

es nabiji a. zakaevma saswrafod Seafasa, rogorc `al-qaidis~ lozungebze uaris<br />

Tqma da CeCneTis damoukideblobisTvis brZolis gzaze dabruneba. Tumca<br />

yuradRebas iqcevs is faqti, rom h. gakaevis janys mxari dauWira CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiaSi arab mujaxedTa meTaurma emir muhanadma (abu-anasi). amgvarad,<br />

rogorc Cans, saqme ar unda gvqondes globaluri jihadis ideebze uaris<br />

TqmasTan. ganxeTqilebis mizezi, rogorc Cans, isaa, rom CeCenma savele<br />

meTaurebma monacemebi miiRes umarovis mowinaaRmdegesTan (kadirovTan da/an<br />

federalebTan) SesaZlo TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb.<br />

ganxeTqileba mtris rigebSi (radac rusebi `boevikebs~ miiCneven) arasdrosaa<br />

cudi, magram CeCneTSi kadirovis sistemisTvis es sagangaSo signalia. pirvel<br />

30 ix., magaliTad: См., например, http://www.vremya.ru/2010/192/4/262956.html<br />

31 ix., magaliTad: http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175721/. CeCneTsa da mTlianad<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi mimdinare omis xasiaTis Sesaxeb mniSvnelovani masala aseve ix.:<br />

http://www.agentura.ru/press/about/jointprojects/ej/skem/.<br />

39

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igSi imitom, rom jihadze uaris Tqmis gareSe h. gakaevi iatakqveSeTSi kvlav<br />

rTavs CeCneTis TavisuflebisTvis brZolis `motors~, Tumca jer kidev erTi<br />

wlis win ise C<strong>and</strong>a, TiTqos CeCneTis TavisuflebasTan dakavSirebul<br />

faseulobaTa sistema kadirovs hqonda monopolizebuli. meorec,<br />

`g<strong>and</strong>gomilebs~ saswrafod dasWirdaT sakuTar Tavze xmamaRali gancxadebis<br />

gakeTeba da maT 2010 wels ori gabeduli Tavdasxma ganaxorcieles _ kadirovis<br />

mSobliur sofelze da parlamentis Senobaze groznoSi. es jerjerobiT<br />

rezonansuli Setevebis mxolod erTeuli SemTxvevebia, magram arsebobs<br />

albaToba, rom tendencia gagrZeldeba.<br />

CeCneTSi jer kidev dominirebs dadebiTi dinamika, Tumca, adgilobrivi<br />

damkvirveblebis Tanaxmad, r. kadirovis piradi popularoba Tuki ar mcirdeba,<br />

arc izrdeba. samagierod, izrdeba ukmayofileba misi sastiki piradi<br />

Zalauflebis gamo _ `boevikTa~ ojaxebis misamarTiT ganxorcielebuli<br />

terorisa da im ukanono begarebis gamo, romlebsac akisreben ara marto mcire<br />

da saSualo biznesis warmomadgenlebs, aramed biujetidan dafinansebulebsac.<br />

ukmayofilebas iwvevs Taviseburi socialuri problemebi: magaliTad,<br />

savadmyofoebi aRdgenili da kargad aRWurvilia, magram ar aris sakmarisi<br />

medpersonali, xolo savadmyofoSi dawola mxolod qrTamis safasurad<br />

SeiZleba. magram ukeTesobisken cvlilebis gancda, rogorc Cans, gavlenas<br />

usafrTxoebis sferozec axdens. magaliTad, 2010 wels, 2009 welTan SedarebiT,<br />

CeCneTSi orjer Semcirda afeTqebebis ricxvi. adgilobrivi macxovreblebi<br />

kadirovis SeiaraRebuli struqturebis mxridan Zaladobis donis Semcirebas<br />

aRniSnaven da mocemul etapze da saerTodac mzad arian apation reJims<br />

adamianis uflebebis uxeSi darRveva, radgan es ufro epizodebia, vidre —<br />

sistema. es ar niSnavs, rom ase iyo erTi wlis win da ase iqneba momavalSic.<br />

amasTanave, kadirovis reJimi erTaderTia mTel CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, romelic<br />

aqtiurad cdilobs yvela asakis axalgazrdasTan (mozardebis CaTvliT)<br />

muSaobas da realurad mxars uWers tradiciul islams, upirispirdeba ra<br />

islamis `importirebul~ versiebs, rac `boevikebis~ ideologiis safuZvels<br />

warmoadgens.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom kadirovi da misi religiuri mrCevlebi paradoqsuli xerxiT,<br />

tradiciuli islamiT axalgazrdobis moxibvlis mcdelobebiT, Tavadve axdenen<br />

tradiciuli islamis radikalizacias. Sedegi _ cxovrebis yvela sferoze<br />

islamis gavlenis gavrceleba (magaliTisTvis, CeCneTSi alkoholis gayidva<br />

daSvebulia mxolod dilis 8 saaTidan 10 saaTamde) _ sul ufro aSorebs<br />

CeCneTs ruseTis kulturul, politikur da samarTlebriv sivrces. sul ufro<br />

meti dawolaa CeCen qalebzec, romlebsac aiZuleben saxalxod ataron<br />

Tavsafari, xocaven e.w. `Rirsebis danaSaulis~ gamo, ZaliT aTxoveben _<br />

poligamiur ojaxebSic ki, rac nebadarTulia SariaTis kanonebiT, magram<br />

akrZalulia rusuli kanonmdeblobiT. Crdilokavkasieli RvTismetyvelebi da<br />

islamis specialistebi fiqroben, rom islami, romelsac CeCneTSi tradiciulad<br />

`asaReben~, sinamdvileSi Zalze axloa iatakqveSeTSi gavrcelebul salafitur<br />

variantTan. CeCneTi Tvalsa da xels Sua xdeba islamuri saamiro, romelic<br />

ruseTis federaciaSi mxolod <strong>for</strong>malurad Sedis. ramzan kadirovs sakuTari<br />

TanamdebobisTvis saxelis Secvla da `CeCneTis imamis~ darqmevac ki surda,<br />

magram sabolood `CeCneTis meTauris~ variantze SeCerda 32 .<br />

erTaderTi, rac dRes respublikas qveyanasTan akavSirebs, guluxvi<br />

federaciuli dotaciebia. es arcTu umniSvnelo da Zlieri kavSiria, magram<br />

mentalur doneze es aranair erTobas ar uzrunvelyofs. garda amisa, rogorc<br />

32 http://www.vremya.ru/2010/145/4/259834.html<br />

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nebismier erT, Tundac namdvilad niWier kacze awyobili reJimi, kadirovis<br />

reJimic mowyvladia. ukve dadga an sul male dadgeba momenti, rodesac<br />

kadirovis reJimis minusebi gadawonis mis plusebs, moskovs ki ar aqvs cxadi<br />

warmodgena ara Tu SesaZlo alternativebze, aramed Tavad aseTi alternativis<br />

SesaZleblobaze.<br />

e. inguSeTi<br />

2008 wels inguSeTs CrdiloeT kavkasiis yvelaze `cxel~ wertilad gadaqceva<br />

emuqreboda, rac dakavSirebuli iyo prezident murat ziazikovis (ori<br />

arasruli vada _ 2002-2006 ww. da 2006-2008 ww.) xelisuflebis mimarT ndobis<br />

Rrma krizisTn. undobloba ZiriTadad dakavSirebuli iyo imasTan, rom Tavisi<br />

qarizmatuli winamorbedis _ ruslan auSevisgan gansxvavebiT, m. ziazikovma<br />

rus Zalovnebs daubrkolebeli muSaobis saSualeba misca inguSeTis<br />

teritoriaze, romelsac es ukansknelni arcTu usafuZvlod aRiqvamdnen<br />

CeCnuri SeiaraRebuli iatakqveSeTis zurgis momaragebis zonad. ZalovanTa<br />

muSaobis Sedegi sapirispiro aRmoCnda _ ZalovanTa mxridan gadametebulma<br />

Zaldobam gaaZliera iatakqveSeTis sakuTriv inguSuri seqtori, romelmac ukve<br />

2004 wels mniSvnelovani roli Seasrula inguSTis rig dasaxlebul punqtebze<br />

`boevikTa~ ieriSSi da beslanSi (CrdiloeT oseTi) nomer pirveli skolis xelSi<br />

CagdebaSi. situaciam mojadoebuli wris niSnebi SeiZina: `boevikTa~ mxridan<br />

gadametebuli Zaladoba zrdida iatakqveSeTis mobilizaciis potencials da<br />

Tavad iatakqveSeTs, rac ZalovanTa mxridan Zaladobis zrdas iwvevda da a. S.<br />

ZalovanTa gadametebli aqtiurobis gamo pasuxis m. ziazikovisgan moTxovna<br />

ucnauri iyo _ Zalovnebi mas ar emorCilebodnen, ziazikovi ki zustad imisTvis<br />

daniSnes, rom maTi moqmedeba daeregulirebina. da mainc, 2008 wlis dasasruls<br />

swored mis personaze koncentrirda sazogadoebrivi siZulvili, ramac<br />

viTarebas `zvavis efeqtis~ saSiSoreba Seuqmna. miT ufro, rom inguSebi<br />

aRmoCndnen erTaderTi Crdilokavkasieli xalxi, vinc 2008 wlis agvistoSi<br />

ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebis Semdeg sajarod<br />

(mitingze) dasva kiTxva: `Tuki TviTgamorkveva nebadarTulia afxazebisa da<br />

osebisTvis, ratom gvekrZaleba igive Cven?~ 33<br />

m. ziazikovis Tanamdebobdan vadamdeli gaTavisufleba da mis adgilas iunusbeg<br />

evkurovis daniSnva medvedevis mier CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi gatarebuli erTerTi<br />

yvelaze warmatebuli zoma iyo. evkurovma faqtobrivad bolo mouRo<br />

politikur spekulaciebs prigorodni raionis (CrdiloeT oseTis nawili,<br />

romelic 1992 wlidan inguSebisa da osebis konfliqtis teritorias<br />

warmoadgens) garSemo, aRiara ra ukve arsebuli gamyofi xazi administraciul<br />

sazRvrad. i. evkurovma daiwyo korufciasTan brZola, piradad midioda tyeSi<br />

`boevikebTan~ mosalaparakeblad, cdilobda Seegonebina ZalovnebisaTvis, rom<br />

aucilebelia ufro akuratulad miSaoba. 2009 wlis ivnisSi evkurovze moewyo<br />

Tavdasxma, igi gadarCa da ramdenimekviriani Sesvenebis Semdeg samuSaos<br />

daubrunda.<br />

i. evkurovis daniSnvisas eqspertTa nawili varaudobda, rom mas mxolod ori<br />

gamosavali hqonda _ an droTa ganmavlobaSi ziazikovis axal versiad<br />

qceuliyo, an kadirovis gziT wasuliyo, anu respublikis xelmZRvanelis mier<br />

kontrolirebadi sakuTari inguSuri SeiaraRebuli Zalebis SeqmnisTvis unda<br />

mieRwia da federalebi respublikidan gaeZevebina. magram samxedro<br />

karieragamovlil evkurovs kadirovisgan didad gansxvavebuli `beqgraundi~<br />

33 http://www.gazeta.ru/news/lenta/2008/08/31/n_1264823.shtml<br />

41

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aqvs, xolo rusi Zalovnebi inguSeTs swored im moednad miiCneven, romlis<br />

saSualebiTac kremls umtkiceben, rom fons gasvla adgilobrivi Zalovani<br />

struqturebisTvis yvela Zalismieri uflebamosilebis gadacemis gareSec<br />

SeiZleba. amitom i. evkurovma Sualeduri gza airCia _ sakuTari Zmis uvaisis<br />

meTaurobiT man inguSuri miliciis batalioni Seqmna, romlis analogiad<br />

SeiZleba axmat kadirovis odesRac mcirericxovani piradi dacva SeiZleba<br />

gamodges da inguSeTSi samoqalaqo xelisuflebisa da federaluri Zalovani<br />

sturqturebis muSaobaSi garkveul erTobliobas miaRwia. Sedegad moiZebna<br />

`boevikebTan~ brZolis algoriTmi, romlis saSualebiTac ukve yoveli<br />

specoperacia aRar iZleva sazogadoebrivi aRSfoTebis sababs 34 . `boevikebis~<br />

likvidacia xdeba an inguSeTis teritoriis gareT, da am SemTxvevaSi<br />

respublikis xelisuflebas ar ekisreba momxdaris gamo pasuxismgebloba, an<br />

aSkarad viTarebaSi, rodesac b<strong>and</strong>iti saxlidan isvris da mis Tanasoflelebs<br />

ukve aRar aqvT sababi eWvisTvis, rom Zalovnebma udanaSaulo mokles. bolo<br />

naxevar weliwadSi inguSeTSi Semcirda Zaladobis done, internet-gamokiTxvebi<br />

aCvneben, rom popularobis mixedviT i. evkurovi jer kidev Zalian uswrebs<br />

sakuTar winamorbeds. inguSeTSi iseve, rogorc CeCneTSi, 2009 welTan<br />

SedarebiT, orjer Semcirda afeTqebebis ricxvi 35 . amas SegviZlia garkveuli<br />

warmarteba vuwodoT, miuxedavad imisa, rom gamoZiebis monacemebis mixedviT,<br />

swored inguSeTidan Cavida moskovSi TviTmkvleli-kamikaZe, romelmac 2011<br />

wlis 24 ianvars domodedovos aeroportze miitana Seteva. sofel ali-iurtSi<br />

aRiareben, rom 2010 wlis agvistoSi muhamed evloevi saxlidan wavida,<br />

savaraudod, `tyeSi~.<br />

v. daRestani<br />

CeCneTisgan da inguSeTisgan gansxvavebiT, 2010 wels daRestanSi teraqtebis<br />

ricxvi, 2009 welTan SedarebiT, mniSvnelovnad (TiTqmis samjer) gaizarda. 2009<br />

wlis zamTarSi daRestanSi daiwyo mZime politikuri krizisi, rac gamoiwvia<br />

kremlis mxridan respublikis maSindeli prezidentis muxu alievis xelaxla<br />

daniSvnisa Tu Secvlis sakiTxis gajanjlebam. varaudobdnen, rom diversiebis<br />

raRac nawili garkveulwilad dakavSirebuli iyo alievis mowinaaRmdegeebTan<br />

da Cadenili iyo moqmedi prezidentis diskreditaciis surviliT. aqedan<br />

gamomdinare arsebobda molodini, rom prezidentis daniSnvis sakiTxis<br />

gadawyvetasTan erTad daiklebda arastabilurobis donec, magram es ase ar<br />

moxda.<br />

daRestanSi situacia SeiZleba uaresic yofiliyo, Tu ara Sida wonasworobis<br />

gansakuTrebuli meqanizmi, romelic aqvs am respublikas. es meqanizmi<br />

istoriulad Camoyalibda regionis unikaluri eTnikuri mravalferovnebis,<br />

Sereuli da monacvleobiT mcxovrebi eTnosebiT dasaxlebuli teritoriebis<br />

simravlisa da sxvadasxva erovnebis mezoblebTan saerTo enis gamonaxvis<br />

aucileblobis wyalobiT. 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi da SuaSi am wonasworobis<br />

sistemis subieqtebi ZiriTadad iyvnen eTnikuri jgufebi da maTi<br />

sazogadoebriv-politikuri moZraobebi, romlebmac sabolood saxelmwifo<br />

xelisuflebis organoebis sistemaSi da daRestanis sazogadoebrivad<br />

mniSvnelovan Tanamdebobebze eTnikuri interesebis warmomadgenlobiTobis<br />

sqema Camoayalibes. 2000-ian wlebSi wonasworobis sistemis subieqtebi aRaraa<br />

wmindad eTnikuri, Semcirda maTi ricxvic _ es ukve aRar aris sazogadoebrivi<br />

34 http://www.vremya.ru/2009/198/4/240437.html _ makSarif auSevis interviu _ «Ситуацию в Ингушетии<br />

можно стабилизировать за неделю».<br />

35 http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/182170/<br />

42

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moZraoebebi daRestanSi mosaxle erovnebebis raodenobis mixedviT, aramed _<br />

gavlenis ramdenime jgufi, sadac gaerTianeba, eTnikuri niSnis garda, saerTo<br />

politikuri da ekonomikuri interesebis gamo xdeba. am jgufebis SefardebiT<br />

wonasworobaSi Tanaarsebobis wyalobiT, daRestanSi SeuZlebelia sxva<br />

regionebisTvis, maT Soris, CrdiloeT kavkasiisTvis damaxasiaTebeli<br />

Zalauflebis vertikali. interesebis balansis sistema daRestanSi masobrivi<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebisTvisac ki iZleva SedarebiT Tavisuflebas, Tumca am<br />

meqanizmis yvelaze zusti ganmarteba `feodaluri pluralizmia~.<br />

SedarebiT advilad gamoiyofa Svidi gavleniani daRestnuri jgufi:<br />

- pirvels SegviZlia pirobiTad davarqvaT levaSineli darguelebis<br />

jgufi, daRestanis dRevadeli prezidentis magomedsalam magomedovisa<br />

da misi mamis _ magomeddalis, romelic respublikas 1994 dan 2006<br />

wlamde xelmZRvanelobda, mSobliuri soflis mixedviT. adamianTa es<br />

jgufi axali prezidentis axlo garemocvaa da Camoyalibda misi mamis<br />

xelmZRvanelTa da `kariskacTa~ Zveli gundis safuZvelze. am jgufSi<br />

arcTu ukanasknel rols Tavad magomeddali asrulebs.<br />

- darguelTa meore jgufs Seadgens maxaCyalis meria, romelsac saTaveSi<br />

udgas said amirovi. s. amirovs sakuTari saprezidenti ambiciebi aqvs,<br />

magram prezidentis axal administraciasTan igi keTilganwyobili zavis<br />

pirobebSi imyofeba, imis gamoc, rom prezidenti darguelia. Tavad<br />

amirovi sakuTar Tavs respublikis nomer meore darguelad miiCnevs,<br />

magram Tavis gunds internacionaluri principiT ayalibebs,<br />

mTlianobaSi gaurbis feodalur `klientelTan~ urTierTobas da<br />

daRestanis politikaSi monawileobas yvela arsebuli politikuri<br />

partiis gavliT cdilobs.<br />

- loialur avarielTa jgufi _ esaa 2006 wels gaxleCili avariuli<br />

opoziciis nawili, romelmac mxari ar dauWira avariel prezident muxu<br />

alievs (2006-2010 ww.) da axla magomedsalamis mxardaWerisken ixreba,<br />

miuxedavad 2000-iani wlebis SuaSi misi mamis winaaRmdeg opoziciur<br />

moZraobaSi monawileobisa. jgufis liderebi arian `rosneftis~<br />

daRestnuri `Svilobilis~ faqtobrivi mflobeli haji maxaCevi da<br />

respublikis sapensio fondis xelmZRvaneli saihid murTazalievi.<br />

ukanasknels xSirad uwodeben daRestnel ramzan kadirovs axalgazrda<br />

asakis, sixistisa da ramzanTan piradi megobrobis gamo. murTazalievi<br />

fiqobs, rom raRac drois Semdeg premieric ki gaxdes.<br />

- avariuli opozicia pirvel rigSi yalibdeba xasaviurtis meris<br />

saihidfaSa umaxanovis garSemo, romelic 2010 wlamde muxu alievs<br />

uWerda mxars, axla ki g<strong>and</strong>gomilis rolSi aRmoCnda. s. umaxanovis<br />

mdgomareoba Zalian rTulia: igi naCxubaria yofil partniorebTan<br />

avariuli opoziciidan, ramzan kadirovTan, romelTanac didi xnis<br />

manZilze megobrobda da gavlenian yumuxur klanebTan, romlebic<br />

xasaviurtis raionis xelmZRvanelis alimsulTan alhamatovis<br />

mkvlelobis gamo mas samkvdro-sasicocxlod gadaekidnen.<br />

- yumuxuri opozicia. yumuxebi daRestanis sididiT mesame eTnosia,<br />

romelic avarielebisa da darguelebisgan gansxvavebiT, dablobebSi<br />

saxloben. tradiciulad daRestanSi pirveli sami Tanamdeboba<br />

avarielebs, darguelebs da yumuxebs Soris nawildeboda, Tanac,<br />

rogorc wesi, yumuxebs premieris Tanamdeboba rCebodaT. 2010 wlis<br />

dasawyisidan maT saxalxo sabWos spikeris Tanamdeboba dautoves, xolo<br />

43

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premieris posti avarielTa xelSi gadavida. aman TavisTavad gamoiwvia<br />

yumuxTa ukmayofileba. isini uamisodac miiCnevdnen, rom dablobSi maTi<br />

mdgomareoba isedac Selaxulia mTebidan avarielebisa da darguelebis<br />

CamosaxlebiT, romlebic faqtobrivad yumuxebs sakuTar<br />

teritoriebzeve aviwroveben. ramdenime yumuxuri municipaliteti<br />

Seyvanilia maxaCyalis SemadgenlobaSi da amgvarad moklebulia eTnikur<br />

TviTmmarTvelobas. yumuxuri opozicia ar aris moqmedi prezidentis<br />

gundSi da aseve verc xasaviurtis opoziciur jgufTan erTi<strong>and</strong>eba,<br />

zogadad, avarielebTan dapirispirebisa Tu, konkretulad, SurisZiebis<br />

mougvarebeli sakiTxis gamo.<br />

- samxreT daRestnis ZiriTadad lezguri, azerbaijanuli da<br />

tabasaranuli municipalitetebi, romlebic orientirebuli arian<br />

derbendis merze _ imam iaralievze, romelic muxu alievis opozicias<br />

warmoadgens, magram mxars uWers muhamedsalams.<br />

- moskovis daRestnuri saTvistomo, romelic orientirebulia suleiman<br />

qerimovze. iTvleba, rom daRestnis xelisuflebis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

konfiguracia qerimovis mieraa `SekveTili da gadaxdili~, amitom<br />

`elitaTa koaliciis~ mniSvnelovani nawili sworedac muhamedsalams<br />

uWers mxars, xedavs ra masSi qerimovis interesebis warmomadgenels. da<br />

mainc urTierToba muhamedaslamsa da qerimovs Soris sulac ar aris<br />

uRrublo. xolo moskovis ideis, qerimovis fulis saSualebiT CeCnuri<br />

warmateba daRestanSic gaimeoros, realizaciamde jer Soria _ rogorc<br />

Cans, daRestanSi sakuTari gavlenis doniT qerimovi jer ar<br />

dakmayofilebula. esec ar iyos, daRestnuri dispozicia CeCnuris<br />

sapirispiroa: CeCneTSi kadirovi putinis meSveobiT wyvets romel<br />

momentSi romeli CeCnuri warmoSobis oligarqi unda dakavdes<br />

qvelmoqmedebiT. qerimovi ki jerjerobiT amas Tavad wyvets.<br />

mTlianobaSi miCneulia, rom muhamedsalams daRestnuri elitis SigniT sruli<br />

konsensusis uzrunvelyofa evaleba. am amocanis umetesi nawili Sesrulebulia<br />

_ gavlenis Svidi jgufidan xuTi, ase Tu ise, farTo koaliciaSi Sevida, magram<br />

masSi danarCeni ori jgufis Sesvlis imedi jerjerobiT ar aris.<br />

Sida TviTdaregulirebis da konsensusis <strong>for</strong>mebis Ziebis daRestnuri<br />

tradicia iqiTken midis, rom swored am respublikaSi eZeben dialogis<br />

saSualebebs radikaluri islamis warmomadgenlebTan da SeiaraRebul<br />

iatakqveSeTTanac ki. gasuli wlis noemberSi Seiqmna `boevikTa~ mSvidobian<br />

cxovrebasTan adaptaciis komisia Zalovani struqturebis sakiTxebSi<br />

daRestanis vice-premieris rivzan yurbanovis (romelic qerimovis kacad<br />

miiCneva) xelmZRvanelobiT. jerjerobiT komisiam tyidan 30 `boevikis~<br />

gamoyvana moaxerxa 36 . TumcaRa komisiis muSaobis farglebis pirobebi imgvaria,<br />

rom mas mxolod isini SeuZlia daubrunos mSvidobian cxovrebas, vinc aqtiurad<br />

ar omobda da iatakqveSeTSi yofnisas danaSauli ar Caudenia. Tumca pirveli<br />

CeCnuri amnistiebic daaxloebiT am scenariT mimdinareobda, mere ki moinaxa<br />

sxva procedurebic, romelTa saSualebiTac moxerxda ufro farTo<br />

auditoriis mocva. jerjerobiT ar Cans mniSvnelovani progresi daRestanis<br />

RvTismetyvelTa sabWos Seqmnis mcdelobebis mimarTulebiT. am sabWoSi unda<br />

Sevidnen salafituri mimdinareobis RvTismetyvelebic, romlebic didwilad<br />

iatakqveSeTis ideur bazas ayalibeben. 2009-2010 wlebSi dawyebuli muSaoba 2010<br />

wlis 29 marts moskovis metroSi momxdari teraqtis mere Sewyda, ris Semdegac<br />

36 http://mn.ru/newspaper_zoom/20110427/301418797.html<br />

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salafituri Temebi, bunebvirivia, kvlav iqcnen ZalovanTa daJinebuli<br />

yuradRebis obieqtad.<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom daRestanSi arsebobs mZlavri sufisturi tradiciebi da<br />

aris ramdenime Seixi, romelTac salafitebTan Ria dapirispirebisas sakuTari<br />

mimdevrebis mobilizeba SeuZliaT, SeiaraRebul iatakqveSeTSi mainc matulobs<br />

salfitTa gavlena. ideuri iatakqveSeTi ar ukadrisobs Ria rekets, biznesis<br />

nawils begaras adebs, is, vinc gadaxdaze uars ambobs, safrTxeSi agdebs sakuTar<br />

warmoebas da sicocxlesac. sakuTari usafrTxoebis uzrunvelsayofad<br />

`boevikebs~ zog SemTxvevaSi respublikuri ministrebis donis CinosnebisaTvis<br />

uwevT qrTamis gadaxda. amasTanave xSirad elita, Zalovnebi da `tye~ erTmaneTs<br />

saerTo interesebiT ukavSirdeba, rogorc, magaliTad, daRestnis Sinagan<br />

saqmeTa ministris adilgirei magamedovis mkvleloba 2009 wels. ministrs<br />

boTlixis samTo msrolelTa brigadis iaraRis sawyobidan naTxovari<br />

snaiperuli SaSxanidan esroles 37 .<br />

SeiniSneba CeCneTisTvis damaxasiaTebeli tradiciuli islamis radikalizaciis<br />

procesic. aris zonebi, sadac faqtobrivad gamokveTilia rusul<br />

kanonmdeblobaze SariaTis kanonis upiratesoba, Tumca es sulac ar niSnavs,<br />

rom am zonebSi adamianTa umetesoba salafituri islamis mimdevaria. islamis<br />

adgili daRestnur yofaSi Zalian didia, mosaxleobis mxolod 30 procenti<br />

SeiZleba CaiTvalos religiis mimarT SedarebiT indiferentulad ganwyobilad<br />

da mxolod 3 procents ZaluZs amis sajarod demonstrireba. mTlianobaSi es<br />

yvelaferi iqiT midis, rom yalibdeba axalgazrda Taoba, romelic islams<br />

koordinatTa erTaderT sistemad aRiqvams da absoluturad gulgrilia<br />

politikisa da sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis legaluri <strong>for</strong>mebis mimarT 38 .<br />

es procesi miT ufro mniSvnelovania, rom yovelwliurad daRestnidan gamodis<br />

30-dan 35 aTasamde axalgazrda, romlebsac saswavlo da samuSao adgilebi<br />

sWirdebaT. adgilze amis uzrunvelyofa SeuZlebelia, amitom axalgazrda<br />

daRestnelebi regionis farglebs gareT miemgzavrebian. radgan sul ufro<br />

xSirad es axalgazrdoba Zlieraa islamizirebuli da samyaroze Tavis<br />

specifikuri warmodgenebi aqvs, axal sacxovrebel adgilebSi izrdeba<br />

adgilobriv mosaxleobasTan maTi konfliqtis done. amis logikuri Sedegia<br />

rusebs Soris qsenofobiis zrda da maneJis moednis msgavsi stiqiuri<br />

ukmayofilebebis afeTqeba.<br />

daRestanisa da mTlianad kavkasiis umniSvnelovanes probelmas, albaT,<br />

`xelidan gaSvebuli axalgazrdobis~ problema warmoadgens. am TvalsazrisiT<br />

daRestanis elitebis Serigebaze mimarTuli centris Zalisxmeva guSindeli<br />

dRis politikaa, romelic aqtualur gamowvevebs ver pasuxobs. igive SeiZleba<br />

iTqvas islamis modis, Tundac mis tradiciul <strong>for</strong>mebze aqcentirebiT<br />

waxalisebaze. kavkasiaSi islamuri diskursi imdenad Warbobs, rom regioni<br />

rusuli kulturuli velidan sul ufro Sors mihyavs. araerTmniSvnelovani<br />

Cans moskovSi ganxiluli ideebi radikaluri islamuri moZraobebis<br />

legalizaciis Sesaxeb (im SemTxvevaSi, Tu misi wevrebi iaraRiT xelSi ar<br />

ibrZoleben). taqtikurad es SeiZleba gaazrebuli svla iyos, romelic imis<br />

niSani mianc iqneboda, rom centraluri xelisufleba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

mimdinare sazogadoebrivi procesis saqmis kursSia da cdilobs, mis kalapotSi<br />

imuSaos. magram strategiulad amgvari gaTvla sruliad ewinaaRmdegeba<br />

37 daRestnis Sinagan saqmeTa ministri mokles 2009 wlis 5 ivniss maxaCyalaSi. braldebulTa<br />

sasamarTlo procesis mimdinareobis Sesaxeb ix. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1652791.<br />

38 aseve ix.: http://mn.ru/newspaper_zoom/20110427/301418797.html.<br />

45

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prezident medvedevis mier gamocxadebul ideas mTlianad qveynis da, kerZod,<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis modernizaciis Sesaxeb.<br />

z. kavkasiis dasavleTi 39 . Cerqezuli sakiTxi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis dasavleTi nawili, sadac 2005-2008 wlebamde SedarebiTi<br />

stabiluroba SeiniSneboda, sadac sabWoTa ekonomikuri infrastruqturis<br />

nawilis SenarCunebis wyalobiT naklebi iyo socialur-ekonomikuri saxis<br />

problemebi, sadac darCenili iyo eTnikuri rusebis gacilebiT didi raodenoba<br />

da sadac radikaluri islamis gavrcelebisTvis naklebi baza iyo, dReisaTvis<br />

eTnikuri nacionalizmis xelaxal afeTqebas ganicdis. es problema naklebad<br />

exeba CrdiloeT oseTs, romelic jerjerobiT SedarebiT stabilurobas<br />

inarCunebs, Tumca kvlavindeburad or mZafr konfliqtur _ samxreTosur da<br />

osur-inguSur _ situaciaSia CaTreuli. samagierod, yabardo-balyareTSi da<br />

yaraCai-CerqezeTSi TvalsaCinoa konfliqtebis mkveTrad gamoxatuli niSnebi,<br />

erTi mxriv, yabardoelebisa da Cerqezebs, xolo meore mxriv _ balyarelebs da<br />

yaraCaelebs Soris. radgan jgufis farglebSi am Temas calke moxsneba mieZRvna,<br />

mxolod yvelaze arsebiT sakiTxebs SevexebiT.<br />

aSkaraa, rom eTnonacionalizmis renesansis aqtivizireba Tu ara, provocireba<br />

ruseTis mier samxreT oseTis da afxazeTis aRiarebas mohyva. amas garda,<br />

situaciaze gavlena moaxdina 2014 wels olimpiadis soWSi Catarebis proeqtma,<br />

samTo-saTxilamuro klasteris proeqtze samuSaoebis dawyebam, radgan<br />

klasteris xuTi obieqtidan sami adiReaSi, yaraCai-CerqezeTsa da yabardobalyareTSia<br />

daproeqtebuli, aseve _ samxreT federalur olqad da Crdilokavkasiis<br />

federalur olqad dayofam. olimpiadis proeqti kalendarulad<br />

daemTxva CerqezebisTvis tragikul TariRs _ 150 wels didi kavkasiuri omis<br />

dasrulebidan da ruseTis imperiis mier CerqezTa genocidis sakiTxis<br />

reanimacia gamoiwvia. klasteris yabardobalyarulma nawilma, romelic<br />

dagegmilia balyarul daba bezingis maxloblad, gaaRrmava balyarelebs da<br />

yabardoelebs Soris miwebis gayofasTan dakavSirebiT arsebuli dapirispireba,<br />

romelic e.w. `soflebSua teritoriebs~ exeba (axla amas oficialurad<br />

39 winamdebare teqstSi ganzrax ar xdeba CrdiloeT oseTSi arsebul situaciaze aqcentireba,<br />

radgan proeqt `Second Track~-is farglebSi gakeTda sagangebo moxseneba orive oseTis Sesaxeb.<br />

zogadad unda aRiniSnos Semdegi viTareba: CrdiloeT oseTis mosaxleoba Seadgens daaxloebiT<br />

700 aTas kacs, romelTa umetesoba qristiania. es, iseve, rogorc bolo 70-80 wlis manZilze<br />

moskovis mimarT osebis tradiciuli loialoba federalur centsr aZlevs saSualebas, rom<br />

CrdiloeT oseTi islamuri CrdiloeT kavkasiis geogarfiul centrSi civilizaciis<br />

<strong>for</strong>postad miiCnios. geografiuli da kulturuli faqtorebis aseT Sexamebas ruseTsaqarTvelos<br />

urTierTobis keTilsaimedo ganviTarebis pirobebSi SeeZlo oseTi eqcia<br />

urTierTsasargeblo transsasazRvro TanamSromlobis idealur adgilad, riTic mogebuli<br />

darCebodnen eTnikuri osebi. saqarTvelosTan urTierTobis blokadas iqamde mihyavs saqme, rom<br />

oseTi gauucxovda rogorc saqarTvelos, ise mTeli islamur garemocvas. mas Semdeg, rac<br />

ruseTma aRiara samxreT oseTi, gamoikveTa imis Teoriuli albaToba, rom Tuki ruseTis pozicia<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis aRmosavleTiT da dasavleTiT, anu CrdiloeT kavkasiiis islamur regionebSi,<br />

Sesustdeba, Sesustdeba oseTis politikuri `damokidebuleba~ ruseTze da aseT SemTxvevaSi<br />

samxreT oseTi SeiZleba iqces `mizidulobis polusad~ Crdiloosuri moZraobisTvis, romelic<br />

secesiisakenaa mimarTuli. amgvari scenaris realizaciisaTvis saWiroa Crdiloeli osebis<br />

rusebis mimarT ndoba kritikulad Semcirdes, rac jerjerobiT ar xdeba, miuxedavad imisa, rom,<br />

samwuxarod, regionSi aranairi antikorufciuli winsvla ar SeiniSneba. aseve unda aRiniSnos<br />

`mcocavi~ islamizaciis sakmaod swrafad ganviTareba CrdiloeT oseTSi. mahmadianebi arian ara<br />

mxolod prigorodni da mozdokis raionebis inguSebi, CeCnebi da yumuxebi, aramed digorel<br />

osTa mniSvnelovani nawilic, romlebic osuri eTnosis mesameds Seadgenen. `imarat kavkazma~<br />

oseTi 2010 wlidan Tavisi inguSuri `vilaiaTis~ SemadgenlobaSi Seiyvana.<br />

46

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`momijnave teritoriebs~ uwodeben) 40 . olqebis dayofa Cerqezebma aRiqves,<br />

rogorc administraciis mcdeloba gamoeyo adiRea yabardo-balyareTisgan da<br />

yaraCai-CerqezeTisgan da amgvarad gaexliCa Cerqezuli sazogadoeba. amave<br />

dros yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublikaSi ganxorcielebulma warumatebeli<br />

sakadro gadawyvetilebebis seriam yaraCaelebsa da Cerqezebs Soris<br />

urTierTobis gamwvavebis provocireba moaxdina, rac 2009-2010 wlebSi<br />

yaraCaelebs da Cerqezebs Soris masobrivi Cxubebis seriaSi gadaizarda, raSic<br />

3000 kacamde monawileobda. rogorc es Cveulebriv xdeba xolme, nacionalizmis<br />

afeTqeba aisaxa eTnikur rusebzec _ 2009-2010 wlebSi dafiqsirebuli iyo<br />

Cxubebi tradiciul rusul soflebSi Casul yabardoelebsa da rusebs/kazakebs<br />

Soris 41 .<br />

unda iTqvas, rom konfliqti `yaraCai-balyarelebs~ da `yabardo-Cerqezebs~<br />

Soris ufro metad reklamirebulia, vidre es TemTaSoris Tanacxovrebaze<br />

aisaxeba. da mainc, maTSi aris politikuri ideologiac (`didi balyareTisa~ da<br />

`didi CerqezeTis~ proeqtebi, romlebic Sidarusuli administraciuli da<br />

eTnikuri sazRvrebis reviziiskenaa mimarTuli), interesTa realuri<br />

konfliqtic (soflebSua miwebis sakiTxi yabardo-balyareTis respublikaSi da<br />

CerqezebisTvis politikur institutebSi xelmisawvdomobis sakiTxi yaraCai-<br />

CerqezeTis respublikaSi) da agresiis savsebiT realuri gamovlinebebic<br />

(Cxubebi) 42 .<br />

rogorc Cans, pirvel rigSi unda mogvardes yabardo-balyareTis respublikaSi<br />

arsebuli soflebSua teritoriebis sakiTxi. ase, magaliTad, ruseTis 2003 wlis<br />

131 kanonis mixedviT mimdinare municipalitetTa re<strong>for</strong>ma yabardo-balyareTSi<br />

imis gamo Seferxda, rom am kanoniT mTis (ZiriTadad) balyarulma<br />

municipalitetebma miiRes Sansi erT sul mosaxleze miwis imaze didi farTobis<br />

mflobelebi gamxdariyvnen, vidre dablobis Warbmosaxleobiani<br />

municipalitetebi (yabardouli, rusuli da nawilobriv balyaruli).<br />

yabardoelTa umetesoba kategoriulad aprotestebda am usamarTlobas,<br />

varaudobda ra, rom Tuki balyaruli soflebi saZovrebisa da didi turistuli<br />

potencialis mqone samTo savargulebs dainawilebda, es gaaCenda `didi<br />

balyareTis~ aRmocenebis realur safuZvels da yabardoelebs mTiani<br />

saZovrebiT sargeblobisa da turizmis ganviTarebaSi monawileobis saSualebas<br />

daukargavda. problema didwilad TiTidanaa gamowovili, radgan, magaliTad,<br />

ialbuzis garSemo ganviTarebuli turistuli biznesi absoluturad<br />

internacionalur xasiaTs atarebs. da mainc, 2003-2005 wlebSi miwebis gamijnva<br />

imgvarad moxda, rom balyaruli mTiani soflebi maT garSemo arsebuli miwebis<br />

gareSe darCnen. axla isini am miwebze pretenzias acxadeben da aprotesteben am<br />

sadavo teritoriaze nebismieri axali proeqtis ganviTarebis mcdelobas,<br />

kurort bezengis CaTvliT (`es aris ucxo biznesi Cvens miwaze~), romelic<br />

momdinareobs respublikis xelisuflebisgan (ZiriTadad yabardouli). Tavis<br />

mxriv, yabardoelebi blokaven xelisuflebis mxridan balyarelebisaTvis<br />

daTmobis nebismier mcdelobas. iqmneba Cixi, romlidanac xelisufleba<br />

gamosavals ver xedavs, Tumca gamosavali, albaT, imaSi mdgomareobs, rom mTebSi<br />

miwebis gamijnva rusuli kanonmdeblobis mixedviT unda moxdes, amasTan,<br />

dainteresebuli balyaruli da yabardoul municipalitetebi iZulebuli unda<br />

gaxdnen, rom mTian saZovrebze da potenciur sarekreacio zonebSi Sesabamisi<br />

ijaris ufleba grZelvadiani SeTanxmebebiT gai<strong>for</strong>mon. jerjerobiT am arcTu<br />

rTul kompromisamde misvlas xels uSlis yabardo-balyareTis respublikis<br />

40 http://www.vremya.ru/2009/228/4/243438.html<br />

41 http://prohkbr.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=938&Itemid=88888992<br />

42 masobrivi Cxubebis Seasxeb ix, magaliTad: http://www.rosbalt.ru/kavkaz/2010/06/25/748530.html<br />

47

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prezidentis arsen kanokovis politikur oponentTa mudmivi mcdelobebi,<br />

moqmedi xelisuflebis diskreditaciisTvis gamoiyenon yabardobalyaruli<br />

uTanxmoeba. SeiZleba swored es motivi idga ialbuzis raionSi TebervalSi<br />

ganxorcielebuli teraqtebis ukan (mokles sami turisti da aafeTqes<br />

sabagiro), ris gamoc CaiSala mimdinare turistuli sezoni 43 .<br />

eTnikuri nacionalizmis da elitis SigniT dapirispirebebis zrda emateba<br />

radikaluri islamis zrdas. SegviZlia sakmao damajereblobiT vamtkicoT, rom<br />

2000-iani wlebis SuagulSi dasavleT kavkasia saerTaSoriso jihaduri<br />

moZraobis kavkasiuri interesebis centri iyo, adgilobriv emirebs pirdapiri<br />

kavSirebi hqondaT ara marto CeCnur iatakqveSeTTan, aramed fundamentur<br />

teroristul `internacionalTan~ avRaneTSi, eraysa da axlo aRmosavleTis<br />

sxva qveynebSi. `kavkasiis saemiros~ momxreebma yabardo-balyareTs `kavkasiis<br />

mZinare mzeTunaxavi~ Searqves (da dRemde ase eZaxian. 2010 wlis gazafxulze<br />

Zalovnebma mokles cnobili yabardoeli emiri _ anzor astemirovi, romelic<br />

iyo `saamiros~ yadi (uzenaesi mosamarTle), miiCneoda iatakqveSeTis erT-erT<br />

wamyvan ideologad da iyo erT-erTi is figura, romelsac jihadis<br />

`internacionalTan~ hqonda kavSiri. es warmateba gamarjvebad ver iqca:<br />

astemirovis Semcvlelad mosuli emirebi, ar iyvnen dajildoebuli<br />

gansakuTrebuli piradi TvisebebiT, magram Zalian kargi `Semsruleblebi~<br />

aRmoCndnen. erT weliwadSi yabardo-balyareTSi teraqtebis ricxvi 21-dan 121mde,<br />

anu eqvsjer gaizarda 44 . adgilobrivi milicia mudmivi mkvlelobebiTaa<br />

daSinebuli da praqtikulad demoralizebulia. amasTan, rogorc Cans,<br />

daRestanis msgavsad, `tye~ aqac `CarTulia~ Sidaelitur garCevebSi, rac<br />

politikis legalur doneze garkveul gavlenas axdens. yabardo-balyareTSi<br />

dRes mimdinare `boevikTa~ gavlenis zrdis procesi arsebiTad igivea, romlis<br />

dasawyisic inguSeTma da daRestanma 5-6 wlis win gaiara.<br />

vfiqrobT, ialbuzis raionSi Tebervlis TveSi ganxorcielebuli teraqtebi,<br />

minimum saSemsruleblo doneze, dakavSirebulia `tyesTan~. amis ganxilva<br />

konteqsts gareSe SeuZlebelia: 2010 wlis bolos mokles yabardo-balyareTis<br />

respublikis oficialuri mufti anas fSixaCevi, romlis mkvlelobazec<br />

pasuxismgebloba `boevikebma~ aiRes. 2011 wels yabardo-balyareTSi gaaqtiurda<br />

sabrZolo organizacia `Savi qorebi _ antivahabitebi~, romlebmac respublikis<br />

nebismieri mkvidris mokvlisTvis `boevikebs~ SurisZieba gamoucxades.<br />

adgilobrivi macxovreblebis `boevikebisadmi~ utyvi simpaTia da internetSi<br />

ganTavsebuli `qorebis~ specifikuri Sinaarsis video-prezentaciebi<br />

gvavaraudebinebs, rom am proeqtis avtorebi arian uSualod Zalovnebi,<br />

romlebic am gziT cdiloben sajarod moixsnan pasuxismgebloba momaval sastik<br />

specoperaciebze iatakqveSeTis winaaRmdeg da es qmedebebi adgilobriv<br />

`TviTSemoqmedebas~ `miaweron~. nebismier SemTxvevaSi cxadia, rom yabardobalyareTSi<br />

uaxloes momavalSi situcia ZalovanTa aqtiurobis gaZlierebas<br />

moiTxovs, rac, TavisTavad, gamoiwvevs iatakqveSeTis aqtiur pasuxs. 2014 wlis<br />

olimpiadis geografiuli da kalendaruli siaxlovis gaTvaliswinebiT<br />

Zaladobis eskalaciis potencialis zrda Zalian saxifaTo tendenciaa.<br />

radikaluri iatakqveSeTTan dakavSirebuli viTareba, yabardo-balyareTTan<br />

SedarebiT, jer arc ise mZafria yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublikaSi. 2011 wels<br />

prezident boris ebzeevis gadadgoma, romelic profesionali iuristi iyo da<br />

romelsac saprezidento vadis 2,5 weli hqonda darCenili, Zalian<br />

arapopularulad gamoiyureba adgilobrivi mosaxleobis TvalSi. mis adgilas<br />

43 http://www.mn.ru/politics/20110221/300443700.html<br />

44 По официальным открытым данным администрации президента Кабардино-Балкарии.<br />

48

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daniSnulia 34 wlis yaraCaeli raSid Temrezovi, romelic araTu yaraCai-<br />

CerqezeTis respublikis yofili prezidentis ustafa batdievisa da misi siZis,<br />

kriminaluri avtoritetis _ alia kaitovis kacad miiCneva, aramed datacebis<br />

muxliT nasamarTlevic ki iyo batdievis periodSi, rodesac yaraCai-CerqezeTis<br />

kapitaluri mSeneblobis mmarTvelobis ufrosis Tanamdebobaze muSaobda.<br />

batdievis jgufma sakuTari Tavis diskreditacia 2003 wels, batdievis<br />

prezidentad daniSnvidan erT wlis Tavze moaxdina. 2004 wels caxilovis<br />

saxelobis Cerqezuli qimiuri sawarmoos aqciebis gadacemis mcdelobisas<br />

kaitovma saprezidento agarakze Svidi yaraCaeli biznesmeni mokla, ramac<br />

masobrivi protesti da samTavrobo rezidenciis Sturmi gamoiwvia. ruseTis<br />

federaciis maSindelma uflebamosilma warmomadgenelma u. batdievi<br />

Camogdebisgan ixsna, magram misi saprezidento vadis amowurvamde opozicia<br />

blokavda mis nebismier wamowyebas, akontrolebda ra Cerkeskis merias, uzenaes<br />

sasamarTlos da parlamentis nawils. b. ebzeevis mmarTvelobisas batdievis<br />

jgufma paradoqsuli xerxiT SeZlo sakuTari gavlenis gaafarToeba da 2009<br />

wels federaciis sabWoSi senatorad gavelniani Cerqezi biznesmenis viaCeslav<br />

derevis daniSnvis gziT yaraCaelebsa da Cerqezebs Soris grZelvadiani<br />

kompromisis miRweva dabloka. prezident evbzeevis mier yaraCai-CerqezeTis<br />

parlamentSi wardgenili v. derevis k<strong>and</strong>idatura batdievis erTgulma<br />

deputatebma ramdenjerme Caagdes. amis Sedegad respublikaSi gamZafrda<br />

eTnikuri dapirispireba, rac, SesaZloa, gaxda kidec ebzeevis gadadgomis<br />

sababi 45 .<br />

savaraudoa, rom xelisuflebis Secvlis realuri mizezi gaxda samTosaTxilamuro<br />

klasteris dafinansebis dawyebamde `kadrebis ganTavsebis~<br />

aucilebloba: jer kidev batdievis dros yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublika iyo<br />

erTaderTi teritoria, romelic mzad iyo arxizSi samuSaobis dawyebisaTvis,<br />

rac mSeneblobisken mimarTuli kolosaluri sabiujeto resursebis<br />

aTvisebisTvis mzadyofnas niSnavs. safiqralia, rom am TvalsazrisiT<br />

mSeneblobis mmarTvelis biografiis mqone r. Temrizovi ufro xelsayreli<br />

k<strong>and</strong>idaturaa, vidre kirkita iuristi b. ebzeevi. magram ibadeba kiTxva _ vis<br />

ufro aZlevs xels pirveli? martis dasawyisidan moyolebuli yaraCai-<br />

CerqezeTis respublikaSi daiwyo sakuTrebis kriminaluri gadanawilebis<br />

procesi daiwyo, romelic ar ukavSirdeba samTo-saTxilamuro proeqts.<br />

magaliTad, 14 marts snaiperuli SaSxanidan gasroliT mokles Cerqezuli<br />

cementis qarxnis erT-erTi topmenejeri. 2004 wels, saxelmwifo agarakze<br />

momxdar sk<strong>and</strong>alur mkvlelobamde, es qarxana batdiev-kaitovis jgufs<br />

ekuTvnoda, Semdeg maT qarxnis daTmoba mouwia da axla, rogorc Cans, cdiloben<br />

ukan dabrunebas. Temrizovis daniSvnas yaraCai-CerqezeTis mosaxleoba<br />

aRiqvams, rom federalurma centrma uari Tqva kavkasiaSi `sufTa dosies~ mqone<br />

xelmZRvanelebis daniSnvis 2004-2008 wlebis strategiaze. Tanamdebobis pirTa<br />

daniSvnisas minimaluri eTikuri SezRudvebis dacvaze amgvari uari xelaxla<br />

gamoiwvevs xelisuflebisadmi mosaxloebis undoblobis zrdas da afarToebs<br />

rogorc SiaraRebuli, aseve uiaraRo islamuri radikalebis `samobilizacio<br />

zonas~. Tumca warmateba arc yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublikaSi kanokovis _<br />

meurnisa da biznesmenis, SedarebiT sufTa dosies mqone adamianis, xelaxla<br />

`sworad~ daniSnvas moutania. am daniSvnas, samwuxarod, ar mohyolia<br />

teroristuli aqtivobebis Secireba, risi molodinic iyo.<br />

45 http://www.mn.ru/politics/20110228/300450745.html<br />

49

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3. CrdiloeT kavkasiis problemaTa mogvarebis savaraudo gzebi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis (Ckfo) Seqmnidan da xloponinis<br />

daniSnvidan erTi wlis Tavze gviwevs konstatireba, rom kavkasiis gadarCenis es<br />

proeqti Cavarda. xloponinis ofisis erTwliani muSaobis erTaderTi<br />

praqtikuli Sedegia CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis ganviTarebis<br />

strategia 2025 wlamde, romelic adekvaturad aRwers regionis mdgomareobas<br />

da safrTxeebis dones, magram moisustebs winadadebebis mxriv. strategiis sami<br />

scenaridan ori, optimisturi da neitraluri, gamodis iqidan, rom CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis federalur okrugSi usafrTxoebis problema 5-10 wlis ganmavlobaSi<br />

gadawydeba, magram ar aris aranairi monacemebi am problemis gadawyvetis<br />

SesaZlo saSualebebis Sesaxeb.<br />

miCneulia (Tumca dokumentis teqstSi es pirdapir gamoxatuli ar aris), rom<br />

stabilurobis zrdas xeli unda Seuwyos CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri<br />

okrugis socialur-ekonomikurma reabilitaciam _ investiciebis mozidva,<br />

infrastruqturis aRdgena, samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, umaRlesi<br />

saswavleblebis daarseba, cxovrebis donis amaRleba da a.S. Tumca sakiTxis ase<br />

dayeneba garkveulwilad win uswrebs movlenebs, anu rom ityvian, vagons<br />

orTqmavlis win abams. investiciebi ar midis iq, sadac omia. strategiis<br />

avtorebi ki swored investiciebs ganixilaven omis Sewyvetis saSualebad.<br />

gamodis mojadoebuli wre.<br />

refromis avtorebi cdiloben iseTi sistemis SemuSavebas (am mimarTulebiT<br />

praqtikuli moZraoba jer ar SeiniSneba), romelic investorebs moizidavda<br />

arastabilurobis miuxedavad. sabazo ideaa Cadebuli saxsrebis 70%-is ukan<br />

dabrunebisTvis saxelmwifo garantia. magram saxelmwifo garantia saxelmwifos<br />

monawileobiT unda uzrunvelyon bankebma, maT ki, Tavis mxriv, amisaTvis<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi saTavdebo fondis Camoyalibeba undaT. Tumca mJRavndeba,<br />

rom saTavdebo fonds verafrisgan Camoayalibeb _ es, pirvel rigSi,<br />

ukavSirdeba miwis privatizacias, romelic kavkasiaSi, yaraCai-CerqezeTis<br />

respublikis garda, arsad Catarebula. urTierTobebi miwis flobisa da miwiT<br />

sargeblobis sakiTxebSi regulirdeba naxevrad Crdilovani gzebiT,<br />

adgilobrivi elitebis interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT. es xalxi ki sulac ar aris<br />

dainteresebuli, rom Tavis `buRalteriaSi~ vinme garedan mosuli Caaxedos. miT<br />

ufro, rom sainvesticio meqanizmi, Tuki misi awyoba mianc moxerxdeba, romelic<br />

gulisxmobs investoris mier yoveli Cadebuli rublis gakontrolebas,<br />

naklebad sainteresoa regionuli elitebisTvis, vidre dotaciuri meqanizmi,<br />

sadac adgilze gadacemul saxsrebze kontroli Zalze pirobiTia korufciisa<br />

da `otkatebis~ sistemis wyalobiT.<br />

dReisaTvis erTaderTi sainvesticio proeqti, sadac Cans ganviTarebis raRac<br />

niSnebi, aris CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi xuTi samTo-saTxilamuro kurortis<br />

mSeneblobis proeqti, daRestnis zRvispira sakurorto seqtoris ganviTareba<br />

da axali geoTermuli kurortis Seqmna. 2010 wlis Semodgomaze am mizniT 883-e<br />

saxelmwifo dadgenilebiT Seiqmna Ria saaqcio sazogadoeba (ОАО) `CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis kurortebi~ 46 , romelmac, rogorc saxelmwifo sawarmos<br />

`gansakuTrebuli ekonomikuri zonebis~ Svilobilma sawarmom proeqtSi unda<br />

moizidos ucxoeli da samamulo investorebi da koordinireba unda gauwios<br />

saxelmwifo danaxarjebs. jerjerobiT proeqtis, sadac mxolod xuTi samTosaTxilamuro<br />

zona arsebobda, saerTo Rirebuleba 450 miliardi rublis<br />

farglebSi iyo navaraudevi, aqedan 60 miliard rubls uaxloesi 5 wlis manZilze<br />

46 interviu `CrdiloeT kavkasiis kurortebis~ generalur direqtorTan:<br />

http://www.mn.ru/newspaper_zoom/20110606/302265352.html<br />

50

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saxelmwifo debda. am 60 miliardi rublidan 40 miliardi rublis Setana ki ukve<br />

navaraudevia frangul kompania Caissedesdépôtsetconsignations-Tan erTobliv<br />

sawarmoSi, paritetul sawyisebze. radgan proeqtis samTo nawilis<br />

ganxorcielebisTvis saWiro Tanxis 10%-s frangebi deben, cxadia, rom<br />

saxelmwifos wili da masTan erTad proeqtis korufciuli moculoba<br />

gardauvlad gaizrdeba. 2011 wels saxelmwifo saTaTbiroSi kanonmdeblobaSi<br />

Sesatani im cvlilebebis ganxilvisas, romlebic samTo-saTxilamuro klasters<br />

exeboda, naxsenebi iyo ara xuTi, aramed Svidi zona (sanapiro da geoTermulic),<br />

xolo proeqtis erToblivma dafinansebam, Sesabamisad, trilion rubls miaRwia.<br />

proeqtis avtorebi varaudoben, rom 2030 wlisTvis mxolod samTosaTxilamuro<br />

kurortebs weliwadSi 2,3 milioni adamiani ewveva. axla turizmis<br />

moculoba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, soWis regionis farglebs gareT, weliwadSi<br />

150-200 aTas kacs aRwevs 47 .<br />

Sedegad, arsebobs mniSvnelovani riski, rom kavkasiis socialur-ekonomikuri<br />

aRorZinebis erTaderTi `investori~ gaxdeba saxelmwifo, anu es<br />

kvlavindeburad iqneba dotaciebi da ara _ investiciebi. CeCneTis magaliTi<br />

garkveulwilad aCvenebs, rom gansazRvrul raodenobriv donemde dotaciebi<br />

SeiZleba efeqturi iyos. magram CeCneTi ifurCqneba ara mxolod dotaciebis,<br />

aramed eTnikuri biznesis `iZulebiTi qvelmoqmedebis~ xarjze, sxva regionebSi<br />

ki am ideis amuSaveba jerac ver moxerxda. meorec, centrs maincdamainc arc<br />

unda da verc miscems sakuTar Tavs imis uflebas, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiis<br />

federaluri okrugis sxva subieqtebSi CeCneTis astronomiuli dafinansebis<br />

gamocdileba gaimeoros. Cndeba logikuri Cixi.<br />

sxva yvelaferTan erTad, strategia ideologiurad amodis iqidan, rom<br />

arastabilurobis (`boevikTa~ aqtiurobis) mizezi aris siRaribe, mouwyobeli<br />

cxovreba da gaunaTlebloba, magram miuxedavad korufciis maRali donis,<br />

mdidrebsa da Raribebs Soris diferenciaciis zrdisa da socialuri<br />

infrastruqturis rRvevisa, xmebi CrdiloeT kavkasiis siRaribis Sesaxeb mainc<br />

gadaWarbebulia. regionebis socialuri da ekonomikuri kvleviTi centris<br />

RAMCOM-is monacemebis mixedviT, yabardo-balyareTis respublikis saojaxo<br />

meurneobebis wliuri Semosavali regionSi biujetidan Semosuli wliuri<br />

dotaciis dones Seefardeba. CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis<br />

ekonomikis subieqtTa 50 procentze meti Crdili dgas da amitom mas veranairi<br />

statistikuri monacemebi ver moicavs.<br />

yvelaze mTavari is aris, rom rogorc SeiaraRebuli, ise SeuiaraRebeli<br />

islamist radikalTa jgufi ivseba, rogorc praqtika aCvenebs, ara<br />

gaunaTlebeli da mouwyobeli Raribebis, aramed saSualo da xSirad maRali<br />

Semosavlis mqone ojaxebidan gamosuli sakmaod ganaTlebuli axalgazrdobis<br />

xarjze. `boevikad~ gasvla es aris ara Cadebuli naRmis safasurad 100 dolaris<br />

Sovnis mcdeloba, aramed _ gaazrebuli socialuri da politikuri protesti.<br />

islamis sxvadasxva mimdinareobis popularoba swrafad izrdeba 20-25 wlamde<br />

axalgazrdebs Soris. axalgazrdobas religiis garda faqtobrivad ar gaaCnia<br />

sxva eTikuri regulatori. legaluri politika axalgazrdebis TvalSi imdenad<br />

diskreditirebulia, rom aRarc ainteresebT. faqtobrivad Tvalsa da xels Sua<br />

yalibdeba Zalian farTo socialuri jgufi, romelic cxovrobs sakuTari<br />

47 http://www.mn.ru/economics/20110616/302551945.html turistuli sferos arsebuli mdgomareobis<br />

Sesaxeb monacemebi aRebulia `CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis 2025 wlamde<br />

socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategiidan~ («Стратегии социально-экономического развития<br />

СКФО до 2025 года») (ix. zemoT) da RAMCOM—is regionebis socialuri da ekonomikuri kvleviTi<br />

centris specialuri kvlevidan.<br />

51

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politikuri, moraluri, ekonomikuri, socialuri da kulturuli wesebiT,<br />

romlebic safuZvlianad gansxvavdeba ruseTSi miRebuli wesebisgan.<br />

yovelive es niSnavs ara mxolod teritoriebis gaucxoebis pirdapir safrTxes,<br />

aramed eTnikuri da konfesiuri konfliqtebis zrdas qveynis mTel<br />

teritoriaze, iq, sadac es axalgazrdoba aucileblad Cava samuSaos Ziebisas.<br />

ruseTisaken samuSaos saZieblad ltolva sulac ar gamoricxavs, saukeTeso<br />

SemTxvevaSi, aramahmadianebisa da arakavkasielebisadmi undoblobas, uares<br />

SemTxvevaSi ki _ ki maTdami zizRsa da siZulvils. radgan sakiTxis ase dayeneba<br />

bunebrivad iwvevs adgilobrivi mosaxleobis agresiul pasuxs, logikuri<br />

iqneboda uaxloes momavalSi 11 dekembris maneJis moednis msgavsi movlenebis<br />

ganmeoreba gvevaraudebina. CrdiloeT kavkasiis gamoyofas, sxvadasxva<br />

gamokiTxvebiT, ruseTis mosaxleobis 60-dan 73 procentamde uWers mxars. es<br />

ganaCeni Tu ara, saxifaTo diagnozia.<br />

muSaobis aucilebloba ideologiur doneze arasakmarisad aqvT<br />

gacnobierebuli xloponinis ofisSi, sadac miRebulia azri, rom problemis<br />

gadawyveta mxolod ekonomikuri instrumentebiTaa SesaZlebeli. amasTan,<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi socialuri cvlilebebi iseTi siswrafiT viTardeba, rom<br />

uflebamosili warmomadgenlis ofisi amaze reagirebas ubralod ver aswrebs.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis praqtikuli umoqmedobis erTi wlis<br />

manZilze radikalurad religiuri axalgazrdobis raodenoba mravaljer<br />

gaizarda.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugi Seqmnis momentSi, 2010 wels,<br />

ukeTesobis realur Sansad isaxeboda. es gaumjobeseba SesaZlebeli iyo, Tuki<br />

daculi iqneboda sami piroba: xloponinis xelSi unda gadasuliyo Zalovnebis,<br />

regionuli buRalteriisa (unda hqonoda yoveli saxelmwifo rublis realuri<br />

auditis saSualeba) da sakadro politikis (respublikebSi maRali Tanamdebobis<br />

pirebiT dawyebuli soflebiT damTavrebuli) kontroli 48 . araferi amdagvari<br />

mas ar miuRia da arc ucdia, rom mieRo. Sedegad erTi wlis manZilze ofisi<br />

ukeTesobisken cvlilebebis potenciuri birTvidan mmarTvelobis zedmet<br />

struqturad iqca, romelic federaluri centris diskreditacias axdenda.<br />

yvelaferTan erTad, CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugi CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiaSi proeqtiebis marTvis araaSkara konkurenciis viTarebaSi arsebobs,<br />

rac aseve aferxebs saqmeTa viTarebis gaumjobesebas. erTi proeqtia Tavad<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugi, meore _ putinze orientirebuli<br />

ramzan kadirovi da politikuri avtonomiis, damoukidebeli Zalis da garedan<br />

Semosuli didi fulis specifikuri sinTezi. CeCnuri aRorZinebis warmatebebis<br />

da CrdiloeT kavkasiis federaluri okrugis Cavardnis gaTvaliswinebiT<br />

SegveZlo gvefiqra, rom kadirovis proeqti ukeTesia, mas CeCneTi rusul<br />

kanonebisadmi dauqvemdebarebel islamur anklavad rom ar gadaeqcia.<br />

moskovis eqsperimentebs agrZelebs: magaliTad, teritoriebze stabilurobis<br />

doneze da kanonierebis dacvaze pasuxismgeblobas akisrebs Sesabamisi<br />

respublikebis prezidentebs, romlebic wels gaxdnen regionuli<br />

sakoordinaco saTaTbiroebis Tavmjdomareebi, magaram es kvlav xloponinTan<br />

daSvebuli Secdomis ganmeorebaa _ moiTxovo stabiluroba ise, rom Zalovnebis<br />

gakontrolebis aranair realur saSualebas ar iZleode.<br />

48 sakuTari Zalovani saSualebebis Seqmnis mcdelobis Sesaxeb CrdiloeT kavkasiis federalur<br />

okrugSi ix. analitikuri moxseneba: «Борьба с терроризмом: СКФО»<br />

http://www.agentura.ru/dossier/<strong>russia</strong>/people/sukhov/counterterrorism/<br />

52

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dro Tvalsa da xels Sua midis da, SesaZloa, raime RonisZiebis gatareba ukve<br />

Zalze gvianicaa. magram mainc aris situaciis ukeTesobisken Secvlis imedi,<br />

Tuki moxdeba imave sabaziso pirobebis dacva: samoqalaqo xelisuflebis<br />

Zalovnebze kontrolis normaluri meqanizmis daweseba, biujetis<br />

gamWvirvalobis miRweva, radikaluri sakadro re<strong>for</strong>ma, romelsac TavisTavad<br />

SeuZlia xelisuflebas adgilobrivi mosaxleobis ndoba daubrunos.<br />

aucilebelia sazogadoebis darwmuneba, rom mas ZaluZs gavlena iqonios<br />

situaciaze, rom adamianebi sakuTari saxlis baton-patronebi da didi qveynis<br />

sruluflebiani moqalaqeebi arian. unda aRdges normaluri e.w. socialuri<br />

liftebis sistema, mTel ruseTSi rusebsa da kavkasielebs Soris<br />

konfliqturobis SemcirebisTvis misaRebia zomebi, unda aRdges kavkasiasa da<br />

qveynis danarCen nawils Soris mravali wlis win Sewyvetili kulturuli<br />

kontaqtebi.<br />

ra Tqma unda, am yvela nabijis mizani (principuli mniSvneloba ar aqvs, vin<br />

gadadga _ uSualod uflebamosilma warmomadgenelma xloponinma, sxva<br />

uflebamosilma warmomadgenelma Tu ufro zemoT, uflebamosili<br />

warmomadgenlobis zeda doneze) unda iyos regionuli korumpirebuli<br />

eTnokratiebis avtonomiis SezRudva, romlebic mosaxleobis zizRs iwveven da<br />

nebismieri wamowyebis blokirebas axdenen. laparakia ara subieqtebis<br />

meTaurebze, aramed hermetul eTnokratiul dajgufebebze, romelTac zog<br />

SemTxvevaSi meTaurebi SeeTqvifnen, zog SemTxvevaSi ki ver umklavdebian.<br />

es jgufebi CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi arastabilurobis mTavari damnaSaveebi arian.<br />

maT xels aZlevs saqmeTa arsebuli viTareba, rodesac moskovidan momdinare<br />

fulis nakadze `sxedan~ Tavad isini, is federaluri Cinosnebi, romlebsac isini<br />

`otkats~ aZleven, adgilobrivi Zalovnebi da `boevikebi~ (romlebic aseve<br />

iReben biujetidan sakuTar wils gamosasyidis saxiT, rasac `Cinovnikebi~<br />

sakuTar usafrTxoebaSi ixdian). Tuki es jgufebi xelisuflebaSi darCebian,<br />

araferi Seicvleba, CrdiloeT kavkasia ganagrZobs radikalizaciisa da<br />

arqaizaciisken svlas da garduvali iqneba riski imisa, rom adre Tu gvian<br />

arabuli revoluciebis an, sulac, avRaneTSi samoqalaqo omis scenari<br />

ganmeordes. kavkasiaSi aranairi seriozuli investicia ar mova manam, sanam<br />

centri am jgufebis gavlenis SezRudvisTvis gambedaobas ar moikrebs.<br />

gasagebia, rom Tuki aseTi gadawyvetileba miRebuli iqneba da kavkasiaSi<br />

seriozuli instituciuri re<strong>for</strong>ma daiwyeba, es jgufebi jiut winaaRmdegobas<br />

gaweven. institutebis axali sistemis organizebis periodSi aris situaciis<br />

gauaresebis riski. swored am riskis gamoa naklebsavarudo, rom moskovSi<br />

miiRon gadawyvetileba, gansakuTrebiT _ 2012 wlis arCevnebis win, Tumca<br />

amgvari gadawyvetilebis gareSe ruseTi namdvilad dakargavs kavkasias.<br />

savsebiT SesaZlebelia, rom aqtiur moqmedebebze saswrafod gadasvlamac ver<br />

moitanos warmateba, radgan kavkasieli axalgazrdebis ukve ramdenime Taoba<br />

ruseTis diskursis gareT cxovrobs da uars ambobs mis miRebaze. Tumca<br />

aqtiuri re<strong>for</strong>mebis dawyeba mainc tovebs kavkasiis SenarCunebis Sanss, maSin,<br />

roca amaze uari regionis sakmaod xanmokle perspeqtivaSi dakargvis garantia<br />

iqneba.<br />

4. CrdiloeTi kavkasia da saqarTvelo<br />

afxazeTis da samxreT oseTis aRiareba da eTnonacionalizmis rezonansi<br />

2008 wlis omma CrdiloeT kavkasiaze orgvarovnad imoqmeda. erTi mxriv, es iyo<br />

sakuTari interesebis dasacavad Zalis gamoyenebisTvis ruseTis mzaobis<br />

53

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STambeWdavi demonstrireba, romelic CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi uyuradRebod ar<br />

darCenila da romelmac nawilobriv aRadgina pativiscema federaluri<br />

centris, centraluri xelisuflebisa da Tavad ruseTis mimarT. meore mxriv,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis aRiarebam, romelic aseve<br />

Zalis da garepolitikuri Tanmimdevrobis gamovlinebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos,<br />

rogorc Cans, mxolod `gaxleCili eris gamTlianebaze meocnebe~ eTnikuri osebi<br />

daakmayofila. CrdiloeT kavkasiis yvela sxva erma sakuTar Tavs dausva arcTu<br />

ioli kiTxva imis Sesaxeb, Tu saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebiT ratom eniWeba<br />

prioriteti erTa TviTgamorkvevis uflebas, xolo ruseTTan _ teritoriuli<br />

mTlianobis princips.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi eTnonacionalizmis asaRorZineblad aRiarebis faqtis<br />

mniSvnelobis gadaWarbebiT Sefaseba ar Rirs, Tumca arc misi arajerovnad<br />

Sefasebaa mizanSewonili. 2008 wels inguSuri opozicia erTaderTi iyo, vinc es<br />

kiTxva sajarod dasva 49 , magram es ar niSnavs, rom sxva regionebSi am kiTxvaze ar<br />

dafiqrebulan. `Cerqezuli sakiTxis~ aqtiuri ganxilvis dawyeba<br />

mniSvnelovanwilad 2008 wlis agvistos omis Sedegia. ar Rirs osuri<br />

nacionalizmis daviwyebac: ruseTisadmi amJamad stabilurad loialurma<br />

oseTma, yabardosa da CrdiloeT kavkasiis aRmosavleTSi situaciis mkveTri<br />

gauaresebis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba alaniisa da samxreT oseTis gaerTianebis<br />

idea separatistuli elferiT Seamkos. amJamad es naklebsavaraudoa mxolod<br />

maTTvis, vinc oseTis nacionalistur saitebs ar kiTxulobs.<br />

saqarTvelo: Crdilokavkasiuri strategiis Zieba<br />

2008 wlis omma Secvala saqarTvelos poziciac CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT.<br />

2000-iani wlis bolomde saqarTvelos politika CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi dayvanili<br />

iyo pankisel CeCnebTan urTierTqmedebis ramdenime epizodamde da ritorikul<br />

kiTxvamde _ `ras izamda ruseTi, Tuki samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis rusuli<br />

pasportizaciis msgavsad, Tbilisi qarTul pasportebs daurigebda CeCnebs maTi<br />

faqtobrivi damoukideblobis periodSi?~ omis Semdgom saqarTvelom ufro<br />

Tanmimdevruli strategiis SemuSaveba gadawyvita.<br />

2008 wlamde Crdilokavkasiuri strategiis ararseboba SeiZleba avxsnaT<br />

ramdenime mizeziT, romelTa fesvebi 1990-ian wlebSi unda veZeboT, im droSi,<br />

rodesac saqarTvelom xelaxla moipova damoukidebloba. pirveli prezidenti,<br />

gadametebuli nacionalizmiT cnobili zviad gamsaxurdia, aqtiurad muSaobda<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan da `erTiani kavkasiuri saxlis~ (romelSic, rogorc<br />

Cans, saqarTvelos centraluri roli eniWeboda) ideac wamoayena. magram<br />

gamsaxurdia xelisuflebaSi mxolod 1991 wlis bolomde SerCa, misma<br />

Tanamemamuleebma ki wesierad verc gaiges, Tu ris miRwevas cdilobda maTi<br />

yofili prezidenti Crdilokavkasiuri mimarTulebiT. saqarTvelodan gaqcevis<br />

Semdeg gamsaxurdia CeCneTSi cxovrobda da samoqalaqo omis dros Tavisi<br />

SeiaraRebuli momxreebis moqmedebas iqidan xelmZRvanelobda. es viTareba<br />

negatiurad aisaxa qarTvelTa umetesobis damokidebulebaze CeCneTis mimarT.<br />

gamsaxurdias memkvidre eduard SevardnaZe CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan raime saxis<br />

urTierTobis awyobas aSkarad ar miiCnevda saWirod. sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo<br />

saqmeTa ministrad yofnisas igi saxelmwifoTa umaRles pirebTan urTierTobas<br />

iyo miCveuli da ruseTTan yvela saqmis mogvarebas moskovis gavliT cdilobda.<br />

garda amisa, Tuki gamsaxurdias Tavis droze didi xani hqonda gatarebuli<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi (sadac Tavisi disidenturi saqmianobis gamo iyo<br />

49 http://www.grani.ru/Politics/m.140776.html<br />

54

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gadasaxlebuli) da, ase Tu ise, warmodgena hqonda regionis mniSvnelobaze,<br />

SevardnaZem aSkarad ver daafasa jerovnad es ukanaskneli faqtori. es<br />

gansakuTrebiT gamoCnda afxazeTSi omis dros, rodesac saqarTvelos brZola<br />

mouxda ara mxolod afxazebisa da rusuli SeiaraRebuli Zalebis, aramed aseve<br />

Crdilokavkasieli daqiravebulebis/moxaliseebis winaaRmdeg.<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom qarTveli politikosebi yvelgan `moskovis xels~<br />

xedavdnen 50 da amas gansakuTrebiT esmeboda xazi e.w. mTis xalxTa<br />

konfederaciasTan (kavkasiis xalxTa konfederacia) dakavSirebiT, romelic<br />

saqarTvelos qalaqebSi teroristuli aqtebiT imuqreboda, sruliad cxadi iyo,<br />

rom Tbilisma sain<strong>for</strong>macio omi waago da Crdilokavkasieli xalxebis TvalSi<br />

raRac mtrul, `arakavkasiur~ fenomens warmoadgenda. Tavis mxriv, CeCeni<br />

`boevikebis~ mier (Samil basaevis xelmZRvenelobiT) afxazeTis qarTuli<br />

mosaxleobis winaaRmdeg Cadenili sisastikis Sesaxeb ambebma kidev ufro<br />

gaamZafra qarTvelebis negatiuri damokidebuleba CeCneTisa da mTlianad<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT.<br />

saqarTveloSi igonebdnen xolme im pirquS dros, rodesac saxelmwifos brZola<br />

uxdeboda ara marto sparseli da Turqi dampyroblebis, aramed, aseve,<br />

Crdilokavkasieli yaCaRebis (ZiriTadad daRestnelebis) winaaRmdeg, romlebic<br />

itacebdnen adamianebs da mSvidobiani cxovrebis saSualebas ar iZleodnen<br />

maSinac ki, rodesac saqarTvelos samxreTeli mezoblebi ar emuqrebodnen.<br />

Tumca imave dros cota vinme Tu ixsenebda, rom mecxramete saukuneSi<br />

saqarTvelo sakmaod aqtiurad exmareboda ruseTis imperias CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis damorCilebaSi, rac ar SeiZleba ar asaxuliyo am regionSi<br />

saqarTvelos aRqmaze.<br />

wagebuli omis Semdeg e. SevardnaZem gamosavlis Zieba isev moskovTan<br />

urTierTobis gaumjobesebis mcdelobiT daiwyo, rasac raime saxis<br />

mniSvnelovani Sedegi ar moutania, magram 2000-iani wlebis dasawyisSi<br />

saqarTvelos prezidents CeCneTSi axali omis gamo mainc mouwia CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis `gaxsneba~. pankisis xeobaSi CeCeni ltolvilebis mozRvaveba axali<br />

usiamovnebebiT daemuqra qveyanas, romelic isedac cud dReSi iyo korufciisa<br />

da saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis usazRvro sisustis gamo. SevardnaZes eSinoda<br />

moskovisa, romelic maSin ukve eZebda saqarTvelos dasjis sababs dasavleTTan<br />

SeTamaSebis gamo, magram imave dros esmoda, rom CeCnebisTvis TavSesafarze<br />

uaris Tqma SeiZleba saxifaTo gamxdariyo susti saqarTvelosTvis da is<br />

CeCnuri SurisZiebis zonad gadaeqcia. garda amisa, SevardnaZe, rogorc<br />

gamocdili politikosi, mudam yofili mtrebis megobrebad gadaqcevis mosurne<br />

iyo. pankisis movlenebi pozitiurad aisaxa qarTul-CeCnur urTierTobaze,<br />

magram imave dros kinaRam rusuli samxedro CareviT damTavrda, radgan cxadi<br />

gaxda, rom SevardnaZis korumpirebulma mTavrobam araTu xeli ver SeuSala<br />

xeobaSi `boevikTa~ SeRwevas, aramed `stumrebTan~ erTad narkobiznesic<br />

daatriala 51 . aseve cnobilia Tbilisis xelisuflebis faqtobrivi mxardaWeriT<br />

ganxorcielebuli CeCeni savele meTauris ruslan gilaevis reidi pankisidan<br />

afxazeTSi 2002 wels, saidanac mas, savaraudod, soWis raionSi gasvlis imedi<br />

hqonda.<br />

2004 wlis dasawyisSi xelisuflebaSi mosul mixeil saakaSvils zustad esmoda<br />

ruseTTan kargi urTierTobis (romelic SevardnaZis mmarTvelobis ukanasknel<br />

wlebSi Zlier gafuWda) aucileblobisa da amitomac ar ucdia raime saxis<br />

Crdilokavkasiuri politikis awyoba (saakaSvilma ruseTs ramdenime CeCenic ki<br />

50 Аспекты Грузино-Абхазского конфликта. Роль России: реалии и мифы. Москва. 2006. University of Cali<strong>for</strong>nia, Irvine.<br />

51 http://reliefweb.int/node/65605<br />

55

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gadasca). amasve eswrafvoda axali prezidentis dasavluri `beqgraundic~,<br />

romelic mentalurad Sors iyo Crdilokavkasiuri realiebidan da<br />

saqarTvelos momavals modernizaciasa da vesternizacias ukavSirebda.<br />

moskovTan da piradad putinTan misi urTierTobis swrafi gauaresebis<br />

miuxedavad, saakaSvils ar ucdia Crdilokavkasiuri sakiTxiT manipulireba,<br />

riTac TiTqosda xazs usvamda separatizmTan brZolaSi saqarTvelos da<br />

ruseTis interesebis Tanxvedras, magram, rogorc ukve iTqva, 2008 wlis omma<br />

yvelaferi Secvala, kerZod ki:<br />

• omSi Crdilokavkasielebis monawileobam saqarTvelos moqalaqeebs<br />

1992-1993 wlis afxazeTis omi moagona. Tumca amjerad `stumrebi~<br />

gansakuTrebuli suliskveTebiT ar gamoirCeodnen (CrdilokavkasielTa<br />

umetesobas Seadgendnen eTnikuri CeCnebisgan dakompleqtebuli<br />

batalioni `vostokis~ mebrZolebi, romlebic omSi moskovidan miRebuli<br />

brZanebiT gaeSurnen, xolo danarCen nawils _ `moxaliseebi~, romlebic<br />

ZarcviT iyvnen dakavebuli). cxadi gaxda, rom 1990-ian wlebSi Tbilisma<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiasTan urTierTobebisTvis Zvirfasi dro dakarga.<br />

afxazuri omis dros moskovi siamovnebiT adevnebda Tvals qarTvelebis<br />

CrdilokavkasielebTan `jajgurs~, axla ki pirdapir miusia isini<br />

saqarTvelos. da Tumca dadioda xmebi imis Sesaxeb, rom CeCnuri<br />

batalioni, romlis wevrebsac pankisuri movlenebi axsovdaT, qarTul<br />

mosaxleobas exmareboda, ar SeiZleba ugulebelvyoT `moxaliseebis~<br />

faqtori, romlebic saqarTvelom moizida Tavisi keTildReobiT,<br />

rogorc arcTu megobrulma adgilma, anu rogorc ZarcvisTvis<br />

xelsayrelma SesaZleblobam. aqedan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos<br />

CrdilokavksielTa warmodgenaSi unda Seeqmna sakuTari, rac SeiZleba<br />

pozitiuri xati da apelireba moexdina tradiciuli qarTul<br />

tolerantobasa da stumarTmoyvareobaze, raTa aRdgeniliyo Tbilisis,<br />

rogorc CrdilokavkasielTa saganmanaTleblo centris (gansakuTrebiT<br />

inguSebisTvis) funqcia. sabWoTa dros am funqcias saqarTvelos<br />

dedaqalaqi sakmaod warmatebiT asrulebda.<br />

• Tbilisidan 40 kilometris daSorebiT rusuli bazebis ganTavsebis da<br />

moskovis faqtobrivi uaris Semdeg, aRiaros saqarTvelos dRev<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

xelisufleba, ruseTis saxiT saqarTvelos ukve pirdapiri safrTxe<br />

gauCnda da, unda Tu ar unda, iZulebulia kontrzomebi miiRos da<br />

ruseTis mowyvladi adgilebi eZebos. swored aseTs warmoadgens<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasia, saqarTvelos yvelaze grZeli sazRvris gaswvriv<br />

gaWimuli zona, romelTanac, movlenaTa nebismieri ganviTarebis<br />

SemTxvevaSi, saWiroa saerTo enis gamonaxva.<br />

• dabols, faqtori, romelic 2008 wlis omTan pirdapir ar aris<br />

dakavSirebuli, magram romlis gaazrebac ukanasknel wlebSi CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiaSi situaciis mkveTr gauaresebas mohyva. regionSi Semdgomi<br />

eskalaciisa da ruseTis mier masze kontrolis dakargvis perspeqtviebi<br />

saqarTvelos interesebSi ar Sedis. movlenaTa amgvari ganviTareba,<br />

erTi mxriv, SeiZleba niSnavdes ruseTis afxazeTidan da samxreT<br />

oseTidan wasvlas, magram meore mxriv, radikaluri-islamisturi<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis saxiT Tbilisma SeiZleba ufro seriozuli<br />

problema miiRos. amgvari scenari saqarTvelos mxridanac moiTxovs<br />

ufro aqtiur politikas Crdilokavkasiuri xalxebis mimarT, raTa<br />

56

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saqarTvelom ganimtkicos megobruli qveynis saxe, romlsac (miuxedavad<br />

misi prodasavluri orientaciisa) kavkasiaSi sakuTari adgili aqvs 52 .<br />

magram, Tuki Tbiliss mainc aqvs raRac warmodgena CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

sakuTari miznebis Sesaxeb, am miznebis miRwevis strategiaSi is jerjerobiT ver<br />

garkveula. yvelaferTan erTad, es SeiZleba ganpirobebuli iyos in<strong>for</strong>maciis<br />

deficitiTa da am regionSi mimdinare procesebis srulad vergagebiT.<br />

saqarTvelos Crdilokavkasiuri mTeli politika jerjerobiT mxolod<br />

`Cerqezul sakiTxSi~ monawileobaze, CrdiloeT kavkasiisTvis rusulenovani<br />

televiziis Seqmnasa da CrdiloeT kavkasiis macxovrebelTaTvis vizebis<br />

gauqmebaze dadis.<br />

Cerqezuli sakiTxi<br />

TbilisSi Cerqezuli sakiTxis ganxilvis iniciacia gamoiyureboda, rogorc<br />

Cerqezuli faqtoriT sargeblobis mcdeloba, eWvqveS daeyenebina 2014 wlis<br />

olimpiada, romelsac rusuli xelmZRvaneloba sakuTar prioritetul saimijo<br />

proeqtad ganixilavs. amasTanave TbilisSi, rogorc Cans, ar arian<br />

darwmunebuli, Rirs Tu ara olimpiadis CaSla Tu ara, boikotireba mianc.<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelos mravali mizezi aqvs, rom ruseTs Cavardnebi<br />

da warumatebloba usurvos, samTavrobo wreebSi didi xania momwifda gageba,<br />

rom saqarTvelos TviTmizani aris ara ruseTis diskreditacia, aramed moskovis<br />

mxridan SesaZlo agresiis Tavidan acileba da Tuki moskovi dasavleTisgan<br />

izolirebaSi moeqceva, amiT, pirvel rigSi, saqarTvelo dazaraldeba. am mxriv<br />

olimpiada saqarTvelos interesebs emsaxureba, radgan misi momzadebiT<br />

dakavebuli ruseTi axal avantiurebze ar wava. Sesabamisad, kargad ar aris<br />

gamokveTili `Cerqezuli diskusiis~ mizani. 2010 wels TbilisSi Catarda ori<br />

msoflio Cerqezuli konferencia, miZRvnili ruseTis imperiaSi CerqezTa<br />

genocidis sakiTxisadmi. monawileobis misaRebad dapatiJebuli iyvnen sxva<br />

kavkasieli xalxebic. pirveli konferencia saqarTvelos parlamentis mimarT<br />

CerqezTa genocidis aRiarebis TxovniT damTavrda. Txovna jer ar<br />

dakmayofilebula da Tavad konferenciis iniciatorebsac esmiT, rom igi,<br />

rogorc Cans, aseve darCeba daukmayofilebeli. Tavad Crdilokavkasieli<br />

Cerqezebis mxridan saqarTvelos iniciativebs farTo mxardaWera ar hqonia,<br />

radgan qarTul-afxazuri omis dros ruseTis Cerqezebi afxazeTis mxardaWeras<br />

sakuTar Zmur movaleobad miiCnevdnen. bevri maTganisTvis Tbilisis<br />

RonisZiebebSi monawileoba SeuTavsebelia meomris RirsebasTan, magram _ ara<br />

yvelasTvis. mTlianobaSi Tbilisurma Cerqezulma konferenciebma rusul<br />

Cerqezul sazogadoebaSi didi interesi da TanamSromlobisTvis potenciuri<br />

mzaoba gamoiwvia. es realurad mtkivneuli sakiTxia, romelmac SeiZleba<br />

gavlena iqonios kavkasiis dasavleT nawilis politikur momavalze. xolo<br />

uaxloes momavalSi SeiZleba gavlena hqondes usafrTxoebis doneze soWis<br />

regionSi.<br />

amasTan dakavSirebiT vvaraudobT, rom saqarTvelos parlamentis 2011 wlis 20<br />

maisis dadgenileba, miRebul iqnes gadawyvetileba ruseTis imperiaSi didi<br />

kavkasiuri omis dros da mis Semdeg Cerqez xalxTa genocidis Sesaxeb, SesaZloa<br />

saqarTvelosTvis da mTlianad regionisTvis iyos rogorc negatiuri, ise<br />

pozitiuri Sedegebis momtani. pirvel rigSi, arsebobs safuZveli varaudisTvis,<br />

rom parlamentis aRiarebamde Cerqezuli genocidis sakiTxs hqonda didi<br />

politikuri faseuloba, rogorc ruseTze potenciuri zewolis instruments.<br />

52 http://girs.org.ge/61/<br />

57

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oficialuri aRiarebis Semdeg aris riski, rom es Tema ise moixsneba<br />

saerTaSoriso dRis wesrigidan, rom wesierad arc ki moiniSneba. aSkaraa, rom<br />

saqarTvelo (da SesaZloa kidev yofili varSavis xelSekrulebis organizaciis<br />

yofil blokSi Semavali ramdenime postsabWoTa qveyana) am sakiTxSi<br />

umciresobaSi rCeba, rac sakiTxis marginalizacias iwvevs. meorec, genocidis<br />

faqtis aRiarebam garkveulwilad gaxliCa rusuli da saerTaSoriso Cerqezuli<br />

sazogadoeba, romlis saqarTvelosadmi damokidebuleba orazrovania da<br />

didwilad gansazRvrulia 1992-1993 wlebis qarTul-afxazur omSi CerqezTa<br />

afxazTa mxares monawileobiT. Cerqezuli sazogadoebis im segmentis `imiji~,<br />

romelmac genocidis Sesaxeb dadgenilebas dauWira mxari, ruseTis danarCeni<br />

mosaxleobis TvalSi didwilad Selaxulia. ar SeiZleba ar vaRiaroT, rom<br />

ruseTSi Cerqezuli sazogadoebis didma nawilma saqarTvelos mier genocidis<br />

aRiareba madlierebiT da simpaTiiT miiRo da SesaZlebelia aRiniSnos kidec<br />

saqarTvelos garkveuli saxis warmateba sakuTari axali `imijis~, rogorc<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis Cerqezul seqtorSi regionuli saxelmwifos, win wawevaSi.<br />

magram saSualo da grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi saqarTvelos mier CerqezTa<br />

genocidis aRiareba am ukanasknelT sxva Crdilokavkasiuri xalxebidan<br />

gamoyobs, anu zrdis gaucxoebas da konfliqturobas, es ki arc erTi qveynis<br />

(saqarTvelosa da ruseTis) interesebSi ar Sedis. orive qveyanas stabiluri da<br />

mSvidobiani CrdiloeT kavkasia sWirdeba. ruseTis zogadad TavSekavebuli<br />

komentarebis miuxedavad, obieqturi realoba imgvaria, rom saqarTvelos mier<br />

CerqezTa genocidis aRiarebam ruseTSi mniSvnelovani gaRizianeba gamoiwvia,<br />

rogorc elitaTa, ise mosaxleobis doneze, rac aseve ar uwyobs xels qveynebs<br />

Soris konstruqciuli urTierTqmedebis aRdgenas.<br />

TV<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTis masobrivi in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebma pirveli<br />

kavkasiuri sain<strong>for</strong>macio arxis amuSaveba ukve monaTles kidev erT antirusul<br />

gamoxtomad 53 , aSkaraa, rom arxs CrdiloeT kavkasiis sain<strong>for</strong>macio sivrceSi<br />

damkvidreba sakmaod gauWirdeba. jer erTi, arxi ar Sedis masobrivi<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebis paketSi, romelsac CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi mudmivi<br />

auditoria hyavs; Tuki arxi moaxerxebs gamoZebnos teqnikuri SesaZlebloba da<br />

miswvdes mayurebelTa farTo auditorias, maSin SeZlebs ipovos sakuTari niSa<br />

da moipovos garkveuli popularoba. aucileblad angariSgasawevia isic, rom<br />

ruseTSi televizors uyureben loialuri, politikurad pasiuri moqalaqeebi.<br />

isini ki, visTvisac gamiznulia arxis Sinaarsi, in<strong>for</strong>macias sxva wyaroebidan<br />

moipoveben, romlebic qarTuli televiziis gareSec sakmarisia. meore _ arxze<br />

momuSaveebs mouwevT xangrZlivi da Tavdauzogavi Sroma, raTa miaRwion mTavar<br />

mizans _ gaaneitralon rusuli oficialuri masobrivi in<strong>for</strong>maciis<br />

saSualebebis antiqarTuli propag<strong>and</strong>a da saqarTvelo ufro pozitiuri saxiT<br />

warmoadginon. ukve amis Semdeg gaxdeba SesaZlebeli ufro ambiciuri miznebis<br />

ganxorcielebaze gadasvla, magaliTad, konkurenciis gaweva ruseTis masobrivi<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebisaTvis TviT ruseTSi arsebuli realuri viTarebis<br />

gaSuqebisas.<br />

vizebi<br />

SedarebiT sainteresoa vizebTan dakavSirebuli qarTuli proeqti.<br />

gamocdilebam aCvena, rom saqarTveloSi gamgzavrebis SesaZleblobas<br />

53 http://inotv.rt.com/2010-01-19/Pervij-Kavkazskij---mashina-propag<strong>and</strong>i<br />

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CrdiloeT oseTSi siamovnebiT iyeneben. erTi mxriv, ruseTi jerovnad ar<br />

afasebs (yovel SemTxvevaSi, sajarod ar Seufasebia) am zomis konstruqciul<br />

mniSvnelobas. saqarTvelom ki gaakeTa is, rasac CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi ukve ori<br />

aTwleulia ruseTidan moelian _ Crdilokavkasiel axalgazrdobas gare<br />

samyaroSi gamavali fanjara gauRo, rac maT imaSi darwmunebis saSualebas<br />

aZlevs, rom uRimRamo sinamdvilis gardaqmna SesaZlebelia ara mxolod<br />

islamuri eqstremizmis saSualebiT. saqarTveloSi Crdilokavkasielebs<br />

SeuZliaT naxon modernizaciuli proeqtis farglebSi im problemaTa<br />

mogvarebis modeli, romlebic CrdiloeT kavkasiis realobaSic arsebobs. es<br />

aris imijis mniSvnelovani magaliTi regionisTvis, sadac T<strong>and</strong>aTan Zlierdeba<br />

arqaizaciisa da radikaluri klerikalizaciis procesebi. meore mxriv,<br />

sazRvris gaxsniT saqarTvelom gza gauxsna migrantebs CrdiloeT kavkasiidan,<br />

romlebsac mohyveba radikaluri islamic. am viTarebis gamo saqarTvelos<br />

mcxovrebTagan bevri gamoTqvamda SeSfoTebas, Tumca aranairi<br />

samarTaldarRveva CamosulTa mxridan jerjerobiT ar dafiqsirebula. es imiT<br />

aixsneba, rom saqarTvelo marTlac gamoiyureba stumarTmoyvare da megobrul<br />

qveynad, sadac Tbilad xvdebian yvelas, miT umetes _ `moZme kavkasielebs~.<br />

Tumca amis mizezi SeiZleba sxvac iyos: saqarTvelos ar aqvs Sromis didi bazari,<br />

sadac CrdiloeT kavkasiidan didi raodenobiT samuSao Zalas moizidavdnen 54 .<br />

sanam amgvari viTareba iqneba, saqarTveloc darCeba satranzito qveynad da ara<br />

saboloo samizne qveynad. saqarTvelos ekonomikuri zrdis SemTxvevaSi ki<br />

amgvari viTareba SeiZleba Seicvalos da maSin ar aris gamoricxuli, rom qveyana<br />

Seejaxos eTnikuri da konfesiuri konfliqtebisa da eTnikuri danaSaulebis<br />

iseTive zrdas, rogoric dRes ruseTSia. isic unda iTqvas, rom ruseTSi<br />

SeiZleba am procesebs SedarebiT rbili xasiaTi hqondes, radgan naklebi iqneba<br />

kuluaruli gansxvaveba potenciur migrantebTan _ tradiciebisa da<br />

konfesiebis aSkara sxvadasxvaobis fonze jerac SenarCunebulia saerTokavkasiuri<br />

solidarobis grZnoba, razec sazRvris gaxsniTa da axali arxis<br />

amuSavebiT apelirebs Tbilisi. rogorc Cans, swored am saerTo-kavkasiur<br />

identobas gulisxmobs prezidenti saakaSvili, rodesac acxadebs momavalSi<br />

erTiani kavkasiis SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb. magram es jerjerobiT ufro<br />

taqtikuri svlebia, gaTvlili myisier Sidapolitikur Tu sagareo-politikur<br />

miznebze, vidre realuri strategia, rac efuZneba ruseTis gavlenis SesaZlo<br />

Sesustebas CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi (perspeqtiva, razec zemoT gvqonda saubari).<br />

zogadad saqarTvelos interesebSia CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi garkveuli balansis<br />

SenarCuneba da imavdroulad regionTan ufro mWidro da megobruli<br />

urTierTobebis damyareba. naTelia, rom miuxedavad yvela sirTulisa, ruseTi<br />

jer ar apirebs kavkasiis datovebas, rac dRev<strong>and</strong>el viTarebaSi (rodesac<br />

saqarTvelo CrdiloeT kavkasiidan maincdamainc `kavkasiur~ fenomenad ar<br />

gamoiyureba) Tbiliss xelsac aZlevs im pirobiT, rom ruseTi kidev erTxel ar<br />

wava Tbilisze da droTa ganmavlobaSi Seasustebs mainc samxedro Zalebs<br />

samxreT oseTSi. qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis zogad <strong>for</strong>matSi aSkaraa, rom<br />

Tbilisi dainteresebulia ruseTis demokratizaciiTa da modernizaciiT, rac,<br />

yvelaferTan erTad, Crdilokavkasiuri Tavsatexis amoxsnasac daexmareba.<br />

radganac es sakmaod Soreuli perspeqtivaa, unda SemovifargloT saerTo<br />

interesebiT, rac sworedac rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi ikveTeba. am<br />

TvalsazrisiT ruseTi, Tavis mxriv, gagebiT unda moekidos saqarTvelos<br />

miswrafebas, gaxdes mimzidveli CrdiloeT kavkasiisaTvis, rac regions ufro<br />

gaxsnis da, amdenad, Seamcirebs Crdilokavkasieli xalxebis Semdgomi<br />

marginalizaciis risks.<br />

54 http://www.spero<strong>for</strong>um.com/a/42136/Georgia-Offers-North-Caucasus-Residents-VisaFree-Travel-As-Kremlin-Cries-Foul<br />

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5. rekomendaciebi<br />

rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis sferoSi zemoT warmodgenili amocanebis<br />

konteqstidan gamomdinare aucilebelia ganxorcieldes Semdegi:<br />

rekomendaciebi orive qveynis politikur xelmZRvanelobas (prezidentebis<br />

administraciebs, mTavrobebs, sakanonmdeblo xelisuflebis organoebs)<br />

ruseTSi<br />

- sajaro, da ara axl<strong>and</strong>eliviT daxuruli, tipis mudmivmoqmedi<br />

saeqsperto institutebis SeqmniT gaizardos CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

mimdinare procesebis monitoringisa da analizis xarisxi, amasTan<br />

gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos is faqti, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

cvalebadi viTarebaa da kvlav wamoWrili gamowvevebi<br />

mniSvnelovanwilad Seexeba ara mxolod ruseTs, aramed garemomcvel<br />

qveynebsac, pirvel rigSi ki, saqarTvelos, romlis teritoriis<br />

SedarebiT did monakveTze gadis sazRvari ruseTis federaciis<br />

Crdilokavkasiur regionTan.<br />

- ganaxldes ormxrivi urTierTobebi saqarTvelosTan Tematur sivrceSi,<br />

romelic ar moicavs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statuss. kerZod,<br />

saxelmwifo sazRvris arasadavo monakveTebsa da sasazRvro<br />

gadasasvlelebSi satransporto mimosvlis, sainvesticio moRvaweobis<br />

eqsport-importis, ormxrivi usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebSi,<br />

anu im sferoebSi, sadac de faqto TanamSromloba an ukve xorcieldeba,<br />

an SesaZlebelia.<br />

- Tavidan iqnes acilebuli mtruli damokidebulebis gaRviveba ormxriv<br />

urTierTobebSi, romelic isedac garTulebulia afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTi problemiT. afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sakmaod gaurkveveli<br />

statusis fonze grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi, maSin, roca TviT ruseTis<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi dinamikurad icvleba gamowvevaTa suraTi, aSkaraa,<br />

rom saqarTvelo ruseTisaTvis potenciurad aris sasurveli partniori<br />

regionSi usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis saqmeSi.<br />

saqarTveloSi<br />

- racionalurad ganaviTaros sakuTari kavkasiuri strategia<br />

saqarTvelos, rogorc regionis gavleniani qveynis, perspeqtivebisa da<br />

dReisaTvis samxreT kavkasiis ZiriTadi politikuri moTamaSis statusis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiT. aseve gaaaqtiuros CrdiloeT kavkasiis situaciis<br />

monitoringi, SeZlebisdagvarad CaerTos ruseTis saeqsperto da<br />

sazogadoebriv, perspeqtivaSi ki, SeiZleba, politikuri institutebis<br />

muSaobaSi. igulisxmeba, rom viTarebis racionaluri monitoringi<br />

normaluri mezoblebis interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT iyos gamWvirvale<br />

da ar aRizianebdes ruseTs damatebiT.<br />

- kavkasiuri strategiis Ziebis mimarTulebiT muSaobas mieces sistemuri<br />

xasiaTi, daisaxos miznebi, rac ar gamoricxavs ruseTTan ormxriv<br />

TanamSromlobas. kavkasiuri strategiis miznebi ar unda iyos<br />

damokidebuli afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusis sakiTxis<br />

60

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gadawyvetaze, raTa winaswar ar Sevides CixSi ormxrivi TanamSromloba<br />

mTlianad kavkasiaSi. saboloo jamSi, orive mxarisTvis misaRebi da<br />

grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi misaRwevi mizani rogorc ruseTisaTvis, ise<br />

saqarTvelosaTvis, afxazeTisa Tu samxreT oseTisaTvis upiratesi<br />

xelSewyobis mqone teritoriebis statusi sazRvrispira intensiuri<br />

vaWrobis zonebSi, saqarTvelo-ruseTis usafrTxo da sakmaod<br />

gamWvirvale sazRvarTan.<br />

- saWiroa procesebis racionalizacia sazogadoebrivi diplomatiis<br />

institutebis farglebSi, romlebic dReisaTvis didwilad ruseTSi<br />

moqmedi qarTuli saTvistomos xelSia, romelic saqarTveloSi<br />

ZiriTadad marTlmadidebeli, nacional-konservatiul marginalur<br />

politikur Zalebzea orientirebuli. saqarTvelos mTavrobas SeuZlia,<br />

da unda izrunos kidec, rom qveynis interesebi ruseTSi ufro<br />

adekvaturad iyos warmodgenili, vidre axla, im sirTuleebis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiTac ki, rac diplomatiuri urTierTobebis arqonas<br />

ukavSurdeba.<br />

ruseTsa da saqarTveloSi<br />

- dauyovnebliv, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusTan dakavSirebuli<br />

winaswari pirobebis gareSe, unda daiwyos zomebis miReba ormxrivi<br />

urTierTobis gasalRobad da regularuli satransporto mimosvlis<br />

aRsadgenad.<br />

rekomendaciebi orive mxaris aRmasrulebel struqturebs<br />

- Sinagan saqmeTa saministrosTan erTad SemuSavdes sazRvris gadakveTis<br />

meqanizmebi, aseve savizo ga<strong>for</strong>meba, rac minimalurad an saerTod ar<br />

Seexeba afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusis sakiTxs. saboloo<br />

mizans unda warmoadgendes iseTi reJimis Camoyalibeba, romelic, erTi<br />

mxriv, saSualebas miscemda rogorc ruseTis, ise saqarTvelos<br />

rezidentebs, aseve afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mosaxleobas<br />

Tavisuflad gadaadgildnen kavkasiaSi, xolo meore mxriv,<br />

uzrunvelyofda orive qveynis usafrTxoebas.<br />

- ruseTisa da saqarTvelos Sinagan saqmeTa saministroebma SeimuSaon<br />

urTierTqmedebis meqanizmebi sasazRvro mimosvlis policiuri<br />

kontrolis sferoSi, raTa gamoiricxos kriminalebis, iaraRis,<br />

narkotikebis, asafeTqebeli nivTierebebis, kontrab<strong>and</strong>uli saqonlisa<br />

da trefikingis Tavisufali gadaadgileba, afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTis arsebobis gaTvaliswinebiT da SesaZloa am saqmeSi CaerTon am<br />

warmonaqmnebis Sesabamisi struqturebic.<br />

- gamocdilebis ormxrivi urTierTgacvla rogorc zogadad policiis<br />

Camoyalibebis sferoSi (ruseTis policiis re<strong>for</strong>mis msgavsad, romelic<br />

ideologiurad Cafiqrebulia saqarTvelos modelis gameorebiT), ise<br />

terorizmTan, adamianebiT, narkotikebiTa da iaraRiT vaWrobasTan<br />

brZolis saqmeSi.<br />

- ormxrivi zomebis SemuSaveba da uzrunvelyofa (SeZlebisdagvarad<br />

afxazuri da samxreTosuri mxareebis CarTva, perspeqtivaSi ki aseve<br />

Azerbaijanis, somxeTisa da mTiani yarabaRisa), rac mimarTuli iqneba<br />

61

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kavkasiis mosaxleobaSi sasroli iaraRis brunvisa da eqsport-importis<br />

Semcirebisaken.<br />

- ormxrivi zomebis SemuSavebisa da realizaciis uzrunvelyofa<br />

(SeZlebisdagvarad afxazuri da samxreTosuri mxareebis CarTva,<br />

perspeqtivaSi ki aseve azerbaijanis, somxeTisa da mTiani yarabaRisa),<br />

rac mimarTuli iqneba kavkasiis mosaxleobaSi narkotikebis brunvis<br />

Semcirebisa da mTel regionSi narkotrafikis kontrolze.<br />

rekomendaciebi kulturis, beWdvisa da masobrivi komunikaciebis, regionuli<br />

ganviTarebisa da integraciis saministroebs<br />

- SemuSavdes da uzrunvelyofil iqnes zomebi, romlebic daexmareba<br />

ormxrivi kulturuli da mediaizolaciis daZlevas orive qveyanaSi;<br />

saWiroa Tanadgoma, raTa Semcirdes mtruli damokidebulebis done,<br />

gafarTovdes zogi arsebuli mediasasualeba da Seiqmnas axalic,<br />

romlis mauwyeblobac saxelmwifo sazRvris orive mxares gavrceldeba,<br />

aseve afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi, mosaxleobisaTvis gasageb enebze.<br />

- xeli Seewyos kulturuli avtonomiebis ganviTarebas, kulturul<br />

gacvlas, mudmivad unda gaesvas xazi orive qveynis dainteresebas<br />

nebismieri eTnikuri jgufis Tanamedrove samoqalaqo erebTan (rusul<br />

da qarTul) sruluflebiani integraciiT, eTnikuri TviTmyofadobis<br />

dakargvis gareSe.<br />

- xeli Seewyos kulturul gacvlebs, ormxriv vizitebs, kavkasiur<br />

kulturaTa festivalebs (amasTan gasaTvaliswinebelia usafrTxoebis<br />

Sesabamisi zomebis aucilebloba, raTa es RonisZiebebi ar iqces<br />

kriminalisa Tu religiuri fundamentalizmis eqsportad). SemuSavdes<br />

da uzrunvelyofil iqnes farTo kulturuli da, SeZlebisdagvarad,<br />

akademiuri gacvlis programis ganxorcieleba, pirvel rigSi,<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTis Crdilokavkasiur teritoriebs Soris,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis CarTviT.<br />

- SeZlebisdagvarad kulturuli da akademiuri gacvla ar iyos<br />

damokidebuli fxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusis sakiTxis<br />

gadawyvetaze. aseTi gacvla, dawyebuli raime winaswari pirobebis<br />

gareSe, sakuTari ganviTarebiT daexmareba ruseTs, saqarTvelos,<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTs Soris urTierTobebis mogvarebas da iqneba<br />

gacilebiT ufro produqtiuli, vidre iseTi mcdelobebi, rogoricaa,<br />

magaliTad, CerqezTa sakiTxis win wamoweva soWis olimpiadis wina<br />

periodSi.<br />

- CerqezTa sakiTxTan da soWis olimpiadasTan dakavSirebiT<br />

mizanSewonili iqneboda saerTo akademiuri sivrcis monaxva, sadac<br />

moxdeboda amasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebis mTeli kompleqsis<br />

Taobaze mravalmxrivi msjeloba da optimaluri gadawyvetilebebis<br />

SemuSaveba, magram mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki am procesSi<br />

monawileobas miiReben ruseTis mxarec, ruseTSi mcxovrebi Cerqezebic<br />

da Cerqezuli saTvistomoebic.<br />

62

---

ekomendaciebi orive qveynis regionul da municipalur xelisuflebebs<br />

- Tanamonawileoba kulturul gacvlasa da sazRvrispira<br />

TanamSromlobaSi, kavSirebis damyareba municipalitetebis<br />

daZmobilebis principiT, urTierTdaxmarebis aRmoCena, magaliTad,<br />

kaxeTidan bavSvebis dasasveneblad wayvana daRestanSi, zRvaze,<br />

CeCneTidan da inguSeTidan ki _ baTumSi da a.S.<br />

rekomendaciebi dainteresebul sazogadoebriv organizaciebs<br />

- CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi arsebuli situaciis monitoringSi monawileoba,<br />

mimdinare procesebis damoukidebeli Sefasebis uzrunvelyofa,<br />

adamianis uflebebis, da ara marto, uzrunvelyofis CaTvliT.<br />

- sazogadoebrivi diplomatiis ganxriT SesaZleblobebis gaaqtiureba.<br />

- moxaliseTa korpusis Camoyalibeba `msoflio korpusis~ analogiiT,<br />

romelic monawileobas miiRebs j<strong>and</strong>acvis sferoSi, saskolo,<br />

profesiuli da umaRlesi ganaTlebis mimarTulebebiT kavkasiaSi.<br />

- sazogadoebrivi organizaciebis qselis gazrdisa da ganviTarebis<br />

xelSewyoba, arareligiuri sazogadoebrivi iniciativebis<br />

SeZlebisdagvarad daxmareba, rac nawilobriv mainc Seaferxebda<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis arqaizaciisa da klerikalizaciis saSiS process.<br />

63

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saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobaTa evolucia<br />

postsabWoTa periodSi: ganvlili gza da perspeqtivebi<br />

reziume<br />

64<br />

vladimer papava<br />

ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori,<br />

saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis<br />

kvlevis fondis ufrosi mecnier-TanamSromeli<br />

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ekonomikuri urTierTobebi saqarTvelosa da<br />

ruseTs Soris winaaRmdegobrivad viTardeboda. dReisaTvis es urTierTobebi<br />

kidev ufro garTulebulia. miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo wlebSi am or qveyanas<br />

Soris politikuri urTierToba daZabulia, xolo diplomatiuri urTierToba<br />

_ sruliad gawyvetili, maT Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebi arasodes<br />

Sewyvetila. saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikuri urTierTobebis induqciis<br />

meTodiT Seswavlis safuZvelze winamdebare naSromSi warmovadgenT am<br />

urTierTobebis Tvisobrivi gaumjobesebis ZiriTad perspeqtiul<br />

mimarTulebebs. kerZod, ganvixilavT qarTuli produqtebis rusul bazarze<br />

dabrunebis sakiTxebs, rogor SeiZleba saqarTvelosgan Tanxmobis miReba<br />

msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT da ra<br />

gziT moxdeba moskovis uaryofiTi damokidebulebis daZleva<br />

energomatareblebis evropisaken saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebasTan<br />

dakavSirebiT. pirveli problemis mosagvareblad iniciativa unda wamovides<br />

qarTveli mewarmeebisa da maTi gaerTianebebisgan. rac Seexeba msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebasa da amaze saqarTvelos Tanxmobas, es<br />

SeuZlebelia am or qveyanas Soris sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

monakveTebSi sabaJo urTierTobebis mogvarebis gareSe, raSic uSualo<br />

monawileoba unda miiRon saerTaSoriso organizaciebis warmomadgenlebma, maT<br />

Soris _ msoflio sabaJo organizaciamac. energomatareblebis saqarTvelos<br />

gavliT evropisaken transportirebasTan dakavSirebiT moskovis uaryofiTi<br />

damokidebulebis dasaZlevad ki aucilebelia paradigma `alternatiuli<br />

milsadenebi~ Seicvalos paradigmiT `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebi~, anu<br />

`milsadenebis harmonizacia~, rac emyareba im subieqtebs Soris partniorobis<br />

meqanizmebs, vinc moipovebs, transportirebas axorcielebs da navTobsa da gazs<br />

moixmars. yvela am problemis mogvareba SeiZleba warmatebiT, Tuki<br />

gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesSi aqtiurad CaerTveba yvela<br />

dainteresebuli subieqti saerTaSoriso sazogadoebidan.<br />

Sesavali<br />

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan oci weli gavida, magram sul ufro did samecniero<br />

ineterss iwvevs im postsabWoTa urTierTobebis Seswavla, rac Camoyalibda<br />

yofil sabWoTa respublikebs Soris. arc is aris gasakviri, rom yvelaze cxovel<br />

interess swored ruseTis, rogorc ssrk samarTalmemkvidris, yofil sabWoTa<br />

respublikebTan urTierTobebis kvleva iwvevs.<br />

2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos omamde 55 qarTuli urTierTobebis<br />

kvleva ufro spontanuri, vidre sistematiuri xasiaTisa iyo, rac<br />

55 magaliTad, The Guns of August 2008: Russia’s War in Georgia, Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr, eds.<br />

Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 2009.

---

uaryofiTadac aisaxa am urTierTobebze. samwuxarod, naklebadaa Seswavlili<br />

postsabWoTa periodis ekonomikuri urTierTobebi am qveynebs Soris 56 .<br />

omis Semdeg saerTaSoriso organizaciebis iniciativiT sul ufro didi<br />

yuradReba eTmoba qarTveli da rusi mecnierebisa da eqspertebis Sexvedrebis<br />

organizebasa da maT erTobliv kvleviT saqmianobas. amis Sedegad ukve gamoCnda<br />

erToblivi publikaciebic 57 .<br />

samwuxarod, faqtia, rom ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris<br />

urTierToba aris cudi. dReisaTvis es damokidebuleba kidev ufro gauaresda.<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo wlebSi am qveynebs Soris politikuri<br />

urTierTobebi daZabulia, xolo diplomatiuri ki _ saerTod gawyvetili,<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebi arasodes SeCerebula.<br />

Cveni kvlevis mizania im saerTos gamonaxva, saidanac SesaZlebeli iqneba<br />

qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobis ganviTarebis perspeqtivebis<br />

dasaxva.<br />

kvlevis amocanebia: a) saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri<br />

urTierTobebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi tendenciebis Seswavla da b) am<br />

urTierTobaTa dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareobis Sefaseba da SedarebiT mwvave<br />

sakiTxebis gamovlena, romelTa gadawyvetac saWiroa samomavlod.<br />

sakvlevi Temis aqtualuroba imiT ganisazRvreba, rom saqarTvelo-ruseTs<br />

Soris oficialur urTierTobaTa faqtobrivi arqonis pirobebSi am qveynebis<br />

calkeul subieqtebs Soris ekonomikuri kontaqtebi viTardeba<br />

saxelmwifoTaSorisi regulirebis CarCoebs miRma. amis magaliTia<br />

saqarTvelodan ruseTSi `eqsportirebuli~ samuSao Zala, xolo rusTidan<br />

saqarTveloSi `eqsportirebuli~ pirdapiri investiciebi. garda amisa, es<br />

qveynebi, gavrcelebuli mosazrebis Tanaxmad, ganixilebian, rogorc<br />

energomatareblebis transportirebis konkurentebi.<br />

viTareba, rodesac qveyanaTa Soris ar arsebobs oficialuri urTierTobebi,<br />

xolo ekonomikuri urTierTobebi TviTneburad, TavisTavad viTardeba,<br />

qarTul-rusul konteqstSi Seswavlili ar yofila. es Tavis mxriv gansazRvravs<br />

am gamokvlevis praqtikul mniSvnelobasac, radgan qarTul-rusuli<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebis dargSi rekomendaciebi gamoadgeba<br />

am qveynebs Soris saerTo interesebis gamonaxvasa da qveyanaTa Soris arsebuli<br />

daZabulobis Senelebas.<br />

winamdebare kvlevaSi gamoviyeneT Tvisobrivi analizis meTodi. saqarTveloruseTis<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis Sesaxeb arsebuli faqtobrivi masalis<br />

(romelic dagrovda 20 wlis manZilze, ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg) ganvrcoba<br />

induqciis meTodis safuZvelzea ganxorcielebuli. aucileblad unda<br />

aRiniSnos, rom mTavar SezRudvas warmoadgens is garemoeba, rom xelT ar gvaqvs<br />

realuri ekonomikuri viTarebis amsaxveli oficialuri statistikis yvela<br />

monacemi, gansakuTrebiT SromiTi migraciis, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis<br />

da a.S. Sesaxeb. amaze yvela konkretul SemTxvevaSi qvemoT iqneba miTiTebuli.<br />

56 iSviaTi gamonaklisis saxiT ix. statia: Э. М. Иванов. «Экономические отношения России и Грузии».<br />

wignSi: Грузия: проблемы и перспективы развития. Том 1. Под ред. Е. М. Кожокина. Москва: Российский<br />

институт стратегических исследований, 2001.<br />

57 magaliTad, Россия и Грузия: пути выхода из кризиса. Под ред. Георгия Хуцишвили и Тины Гогелиани.<br />

Тбилиси: МЦКП, 2010.<br />

65

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problemis aRwera<br />

winamdebare kvlevis amocanebidan gamomdinare, postsabWoTa periodis<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikuri urTierTobebi unda daiyos sam etapad:<br />

revoluciamdeli (anu saxelmwifo damoukideblobis aRdgenidan 2003 wlis<br />

`vardebis revoluciamde~), omamdeli (anu `vardebis revoluciidan~ 2008 wlis<br />

agvistos rusul-qarTuli omamde) da omis Semdgomi (2008 wlis agvistos<br />

rusul-qarTuli omis Semdeg).<br />

revoluciamdeli periodi<br />

sabWoTa kavSiris farglebSi saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri<br />

urTierTobebi Tavisi xasiaTiT iyo regionTaSorisi urTierTobebi erTiani<br />

qveynis saxalxo-meurneobrivi kompleqsis mbrZanebluri ekonomikis sistemaSi.<br />

sabWoTa respublikebis teritoriaze ekonomikur subieqtebs Soris<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebs gansazRvravda qveynis saxalxo meurneobis<br />

dagegmvis centraluri organo _ ssrk-is e.w. `gosplani~ (anu saxelmwifo<br />

sagegmo komiteti). saqarTvelo misi mcire zomidan gamomdinare, kavkasiis sxva<br />

mcire sabWoTa respublikebTan (zerbaijani da somxeTi) erTad, ssrk-is<br />

ekonomikuri daraionebis sistemaSi amierkavkasiis ekonomikur raionSi<br />

Sedioda 58 .<br />

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlasTan erTad daiSala mbrZanebluri ekonomikac, ramac<br />

ukve postsabWoTa sivrceSi calkeul sawarmoTa Soris arsebuli samrewvelo<br />

kavSirebis gawyveta gamoiwvia. saqarTveloSi es tendencia daCqarda. kerZod,<br />

postsabWoTa periodis saqarTvelos pirvelma xelmZRvanelobam wina saukunis<br />

90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi gamoacxada ruseTis ekonomikuri blokada da<br />

gadaketa sarkinigzo kvanZi qalaq samtrediaSi. amis Sedegad ruseTsa da<br />

saqarTvelos Soris arsebuli samrewvelo kavSirebi ufro adre da ufro<br />

swrafad gawyda, vidre es moxda sxva postsabWoTa respublikebSi. aman pirvel<br />

rigSi saqarTvelos ekonomika daazarala 59 . es iyo pirveli mcdari ekonomikuri<br />

nabiji saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobebSi, romelic ganapiroba saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebis arasworma moqmedebebma. xazs vusvamT, rom amis Semdegac ruseTi<br />

saqarTvelos mTavari savaWro partniori iyo.<br />

darCa ra samaneTo zonaSi, saqarTvelos (sxva sabWoTa respublikebis msgavsad)<br />

1992 wlis Semodgomidan moskovidan sabWoTa samaneTo banknotebis (sabWoTa<br />

maneTis nacvlad rusuli maneTi mxolod 1993 wlis zafxulSi SemoiRes) miRebis<br />

problema gauCnda 60 . es iyo ruseTis reaqcia, romelic gamoiwvia sabWoTa<br />

kavSiris zogi yofili respublikis (maT Soris saqarTvelos) cenrtaluri<br />

bankebidan e.w. `haeris~, anu iseTi fuladi gzavnilebis gadaricxvam, romlebsac<br />

ar hqondaT Sesabamisi uzrunvelyofa. aman, Tavis mxriv, saqarTveloSi<br />

droebiTi erovnuli valutis _ erovnuli bankis kuponis _ SemoReba<br />

daaCqara 61 .<br />

praqtikulad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlisTanave Seiqmna damoukidebel<br />

saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobroba (dsT), sadac gaerTi<strong>and</strong>a yvela yofili sabWoTa<br />

respublika, baltiis qveynebis gamoklebiT. saqarTvelo damoukidebel<br />

58<br />

magaliTad, ix.: Закавказский экономический район. Экономико-географический очерк. Под ред. А. А.<br />

Адамеску, и Е. Д. Силаева. Москва, «Наука», 1973.<br />

59<br />

В. Папава, и Т. Беридзе. «Проблемы реформирования грузинской экономики». Российский экономический<br />

журнал, 1994, № 3.<br />

60<br />

Роман Гоциридзе. «Национальная валюта Грузии – Лари», Центральная Евразия: национальные валюты. Под<br />

ред. Э. М. Исмаилова. Стокгольм: CA&CC Press, 2008, 174-175.<br />

61<br />

iqve, 175.<br />

66

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saxelmwifoTa TanamegobrobaSi Sevida mogvianebiT, 1993 wels, mas Semdeg, rac<br />

teritoriuli mTlianobisaTvis brZolaSi saqarTvelo iZulebuli Seiqna<br />

daetovebina afxazeTi, rasac mohyva iZulebiT gadaadgilebul pirTa<br />

mravalaTasiani talRa. ruseTTan urTierTobis mogvarebis imediT<br />

saqarTvelom miiRo damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa TanamegobrobaSi Sesvlis<br />

gadawyvetileba, im mizniT, rom moskovis keTilganwyoba moepovebina, romelic<br />

yovelTvis edga mxarSi separatistul moZraobas ara marto saqarTveloSi,<br />

aramed sabWoTa kavSiris sxva yofil respublikebSic 62 .<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis farglebSi<br />

miaRwies mraval mniSvnelovan SeTanxmebas, rac xels uwyobda wevrisaxelmwifoebis<br />

ekonomikuri kontaqtebis dalagebas, gavrcelebuli azris<br />

Tanaxmad, Tanamegobroba Tavidanve Seejaxa sirTuleebs integraciis<br />

procesebSi 63 . amis erT-erT mTavar mizezad miiCneva sabazro safuZvelze<br />

integraciis sqemebis SemuSavebisaken swrafva, rac damaxasiaTebelia sawarmoo<br />

kooperaciisaTvis da rac niS<strong>and</strong>oblivi iyo ssrk-is SedarebiT Caketili<br />

ekonomikuri sistemisaTvis 64 .<br />

me-20 saukunis 90-iani wlebis Sua periodSi orive qveyana, saqarTveloc da<br />

ruseTic, dakavebuli iyo sakuTari problemebiT _ sabazro ekonomikaze<br />

gadasvliT da amdenad, am qveynebs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebi am<br />

qveynebis konkretuli ekonomikuri subieqtebis ekonomikuri dainteresebis<br />

safuZvelze Camoyalibda.<br />

saqarTvelos ekonomikaze Zalian cudi gavlena iqonia ruseTis 1998 wlis<br />

savaluto-finansurma krizisma, rac uaryofiTad aisaxa saqarTvelos erovnuli<br />

valutis _ laris _ gacvliTi kursisa da mTlianad saqarTvelos ekonomikis<br />

stabilurobaze 65 . amis Sedegad saqarTvelosTan sagareo vaWrobaSi pirveloba<br />

ruseTma mxolod TurqeTs dauTmo (isic ara didi xniT). ase gagrZelda 2006<br />

wlamde, iqamde, sanam ruseTma qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylebisTvis,<br />

aseve qarTuli warmoSobis sxvadasxva sasoflo-sameurneo produqtebisTvis ar<br />

daketa Tavisi bazari.<br />

revoluciamdeli periodis qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi gansakuTrebiT<br />

sayuradReboa e.w. `nulovani variantis~ xelSekrulebis teqstis saqarTvelos<br />

parlamentis mier iZulebiTi ratifikacia, romlis Tanaxmadac, saqarTvelom<br />

ruseTis valis saerTaSoriso savaluto fondisa da parizis klubis mier<br />

SemoTavazebuli sqemis mixedviT restruqturizaciis sanacvlod uari Tqva<br />

yofili sabWoTa kavSiris aqtivebze 66 . marTalia, parafirebul teqstSi ewera,<br />

rom es ar vrceldeba almasis fondsa da yofili ssrk-is `vneSekonombankis~<br />

62 magaliTad, Crossroads <strong>and</strong> Conflict: Security <strong>and</strong> Foreign Policy in The Caucasus <strong>and</strong> Central Asia, Gary K.<br />

Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones, <strong>and</strong> Michael Beck, eds. New York: Routledge, 2000; Dov Lynch. Engaging<br />

Eurasia’s Separatist States.Unresolved Conflicts <strong>and</strong> De Facto States. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of<br />

Peace Press, 2004.<br />

63 magaliTad, Р. С. Гринберг, Л. З. Зевин, и др. 10 лет Содружества независимых государств: иллюзии,<br />

разочарования, надежды. Москва: ИМЭПИ РАН, 2001; Л. П. Козик и П. А. Кохно. СНГ: реалии и перспективы.<br />

Москва: Издательский дом «Юридический мир ВК», 2001; В. А. Шульга (рук. авт. колл.). Экономика СНГ: 10<br />

лет реформирования и интеграционного развития. Москва: Финстатинформ, 2001; Н. Н. Шумский.<br />

Сотрудничество независимых государств: проблемы и перспективы развития. Минск: «Технопринт», 2001.<br />

64 magaliTad, Martha Brill Olcott, Anders Ǻslund, <strong>and</strong> Sherman W. Garnett. Getting it Wrong: Regional<br />

Cooperation <strong>and</strong> the Commonwealth of Independent States. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment <strong>for</strong> International<br />

Peace, 1999.<br />

65 Мераб Какулия. «До и после введения лари: национальная валюта Грузии в ретроспективе», Центральная<br />

Евразия: национальные валюты. Под ред. Э. М. Исмаилова. Стокгольм: CA&CC Press, 2008, 196-197.<br />

66 ix.: Нодар Броладзе. «“Нулевой вариант”: за и против». Независимая газета, 2001, 17 января, на сайте<br />

http://www.ng.ru/cis/2001-01-17/5_variant.html#.<br />

67

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angariSebze, magram 1993 wels xelmoweril oficialur dokumentSi aseTi<br />

Canaweri ukve aRar iyo, rac qarTulma mxarem mxolod xelmoweris Semdeg<br />

SeniSna. saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mravalricxovani protestis miuxedavad,<br />

ruseTis mxare xelmoweril teqstSi ramis Secvlas ar apirebda, xolo rodesac<br />

saqarTvelos dasWirda ruseTis mimarT sagareo valis restruqturizacia,<br />

moskovma am xelSekrulebis im saxiT ratifikacia moiTxova, ra saxiTac iyo<br />

xelmowerili. radganac saqarTvelos sagareo valis restruqturizaciis<br />

alternatiuli varianti ar arsebobda, saqarTvelos Tavisi erovnuli<br />

interesebis sazianod mouwia `nulovani variantis~ xelSekrulebis<br />

ratificireba, romelic parafirebuli teqstisagan gansxvavdeboda.<br />

azerbaijanuli naxSirwyalbadis resursebis saqarTvelos gavliT<br />

transportirebas yovelTvis ekava mniSvnelovani adgili qarTul-rusul<br />

urTierTobebSi. kerZod, ruseTi miiCnevda (da samwuxarod, dRemde miiCnevs),<br />

rom am proeqtis realizacia safrTxes uqmnis mis erovnul usafrTxoebas da<br />

ewinaaRmdegeba mis interesebs 67 . amrigad, ruseTi ara marto ar iyo<br />

dainteresebuli saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebis derefnis gayvaniT,<br />

aramed yvela Zalas xmarobda, rom xeli SeeSala am proeqtebisaTvis 68 .<br />

omamdeli periodi<br />

jer kidev saqarTvelos 2003 wlis noembris `vardebis revoluciamde~ ruseTSi<br />

ukve popularuli iyo `liberaluri imperiis~ Seqmnis idea 69 , romlis<br />

mixedviTac, ruseTs ekonomikuri eqspansiis saSualebiT SeuZlia da unda<br />

aRadginos kidec Tavisi ekonomikuri gavlena mTel postsabWoTa sivrceze. 70<br />

zogadad, liberaluri imperia, misi avtorebis Canafiqris mixedviT, unda<br />

Seiqmnes yofili sabWoTa respublikebis ara Zaladobrivi SeiaraRebuli<br />

okupaciis, aramed am teritoriebze arsebuli ZiriTadi ekonomikuri<br />

obieqtebis dasakuTrebis (SeZenisa da aqtivebis ganviTarebis) gziT 71 .<br />

kavkasiaSi pirveli qveyana, romelic ruseTis `liberalur imperiaSi~ CaerTo,<br />

iyo somxeTi. jer kidev 2002 wlis bolos daido ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris<br />

xelSekruleba `qonebis valze gacvla~ 72 , romlis Tanaxmadac, ruseTma<br />

somxeTisagan miiRo sawarmoebi, romelTa saerTo Rirebuleba _ 93 milioni aSS<br />

dolari _ sakmarisi aRmoCnda ruseTis mimarT somxeTis valis dasafarad.<br />

67<br />

Alex<strong>and</strong>er Rondeli. “Pipelines <strong>and</strong> Security Dynamics in the Caucasus.” Insight Turkey, 2002, Vol. 4, No 1.<br />

68<br />

iqve.<br />

69<br />

Анатолий Чубайс. «Миссия России в ХХI веке». Независимая газета, 2003, 1 октября, на сайте<br />

http://www.ng.ru/printed/ideas/2003-10-01/1_mission.html<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom Cubaisis idea `liberaluri imperiis~ Sesaxeb gansakuTrebiT 1998-2005 wlebSi<br />

iyo popularuli (Thomas W. Simons, Jr. Eurasia’s New Frontiers: Young States, Old Societies, Open Futures.<br />

Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2008, рр. 70-81). imperiis aRdgenis idea ruseTSi yovelTvis (ssrk-is<br />

daSlisTanavec ki) iyo aqtualuri (magaliTad, ix.: Karen Dawisha. “Imperialism, Dependence, <strong>and</strong><br />

Interdependence in the Eurasian Space”. In The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia <strong>and</strong> The New States of Eurasia.<br />

Adeed Dawisha, <strong>and</strong> Karen Dawisha, eds. Armonk, M. E. Sharpe, 1995).<br />

70<br />

magaliTad, Henry Kissinger. Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy <strong>for</strong> the Twenty-First<br />

Century. London: The Free Press, 2002, 76.<br />

71<br />

Keith Crane, D. J. Peterson, <strong>and</strong> Olga Oliker. “Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States”.<br />

Eurasian Geography <strong>and</strong> Economics, 2005, Vol. 46, No. 6.<br />

72<br />

ix.: Анна Зейберт. «Баланс интересов Армении и России нуждается в переоценке». Деловой Экспресс,<br />

Express.AM, 2006, № 4, 9-15 февраля, на сайте http://www.express.am/4_06/geopolitics.html; Haroutiun Khachatrian.<br />

“Russian Moves in Caucasus Energy <strong>and</strong> Power Sectors could have Geopoliticl Impact”. Eurasia Insight. Eurasianet,<br />

2003, September 25, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav092503.shtml.<br />

68

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mogvianebiT somxeTis ekonomika TiTqmis mTlianad gaxda ruseTis `liberaluri<br />

imperiis~ nawili 73 .<br />

ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris mdebare saqarTvelo da azerbaijani warmoadgens<br />

geografiul dabrkolebas somxuri da rusuli ekonomikis erTian ekonomikur<br />

sivrced gasaerTianeblad. somxur-azerbaijanuli konfliqtis gamo am<br />

gaerTianebisaTvis qarTuli `marSruti~ gacilebiT ufro realisturia, vidre<br />

azerbaijanuli. am `liberalur imperiaSi~ saqarTvelos CaTreviT gaadvildeba<br />

am imperiuli sqemis azerbaijanze gavrcelebac, radgan misi yvela<br />

satransporto komunikaciis arteria, ZiriTadi milsadenebis CaTvliT,<br />

saqarTveloze gadis.<br />

saqarTvelos `liberalur imperiaSi~ gaerTianeba jer kidev 2003 wels daiwyo,<br />

rodesac `rao ees~-ma iyida amerikuli kompania `aeqs (amerikuli<br />

eleqtroqimiuri sazogadoeba) — abreSumis gzis~ (romelic flobda Tbilisis<br />

eleqtrogamanawilebel qsels) aqciebi da sxva aqtivebi. amis Sedegad `rao ees~is<br />

kontrols daeqvemdebara qveynis eleqtroqselis 75 procenti 74 .<br />

`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg rusulma kompaniebma da maTma Svilobilma<br />

sawarmoebma, romlebic daregistrirebulia mesame qveynebSi, saqarTvelos<br />

mTavrobis mier gasayidad gamotanili axali obieqtebis didi nawili<br />

privatizaciis sqemebis sakmaod gaumWvirvale viTarebaSi 75 SeiZines. aseTi<br />

tipuri kompania iyo, magaliTad, rusuli holdingi-kompania `promiSlenie<br />

investori~, romelmac xelSi jer oqros sabado Caigdo, Semdeg ki _ oqros<br />

zodebis damamzadeebli qarxnis naxevari 76 .<br />

aqtiurobda gazpromic _ ruseTis saxelmwifos mier kontrolirebadi gazis<br />

monopolia, romlis mizania akontrolos ara mxolod saqarTvelos gazis<br />

mrewveloba, aramed is erTaderTi gazsadenic, romliTac rusuli gazi<br />

saqarTvelosac da somxeTsac miewodeba. saqarTvelos mTavrobasa da gazproms 77<br />

Soris mimdinare molaparakebebSi mxolod aSS-is CareviT gaxda SesaZlebeli,<br />

rom gazsadeni ar miyides gazproms 78 .<br />

2005 wels `vneStorgbankma~ privatizebuli gaerTianebuli qarTuli bankis,<br />

saqarTveloSi zomiT mesame bankis, sakontrolo paketi SeiZina 79 . amis Sedegad<br />

ruseTis saxelmwifom gaerTianebuli qarTuli bankis nacionalizacia moaxdina.<br />

73 Гаидз Минасян. «Армения, российский форпост на Кавказе?». Russie.Nei.Visions, 2008, No. 27, февраль, сс. 9-<br />

10, http://www.ifri.org/files/Russie/ifri_RNV_minassian_Armenie_Russie_RUS_fevr2008.pdf.<br />

74 Tea gulariZe, `Cubaiss TbilisSi xmauriani Sexvedra mouwyves”. Civil Georgia, 2003, 7 agvisto,<br />

http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=4564.<br />

75 Nino Gujaraidze, Merab Barbakadze, Kety Gujaraidze, Rusudan Mchedlishvili, Kakhaber Kakhaberi. Aggressive<br />

State Property Privatization Policy on “<strong>Georgian</strong>-Style Privatization.” Tbilisi: Green Alternative, OSI, 2007,, available<br />

at www.greenalt.org/webmill/data/file/publications/Privatizeba-Eng4.pdf; Nino Gujaraidze. Aggressive State Property<br />

Privatization Policy on “<strong>Georgian</strong>-Style Privatization”-2. Tbilisi: Green Alternative, OSI, 2010, available at<br />

http://www.greenalt.org/webmill/data/file/publications/privatization_report_GA_2010(1).pdf<br />

76 magaliTad, «Активы Маднеули перешли к российской группе Промышленные инвесторы». Альфа-Металл,<br />

2005, 7 ноября, на сайте http://www.alfametal.ru/?id=news_details&news_id=10505.<br />

77 magaliTad, «Грузия согласна продать магистральный газопровод Газпрому». Лента.Ру, 2005, 28 декабря,<br />

http://www.lenta.ru/news/2005/12/28/gas1/.<br />

78 Jeremy D. Gordon. “Russia’s Foreign Policy Ace”. Paterson Review, 2007, Vol. 8, 85-86,<br />

http://www.diplomatonline.com/pdf_files/npsia/Paterson%20Review%20Vol%208%202007_BYPRESS2b.pdf<br />

79 magaliTad, «Внешторгбанк (ВТБ) России приобретает контрольный пакет акций коммерческого<br />

“Объединенного грузинского банка”». Финам.Ру, 2005, 18 января,<br />

http://www.finam.ru/investments/newsma000010201D/default.asp?fl=1<br />

69

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aucilebelia SevniSnoT, rom 2004 wels saxelmwifos kuTvnilma ruseTis<br />

`vneStorgbankma~ somxeTis “armsberbankis” sakontrolo paketi miiRo 80 .<br />

moxmobili magaliTebi mowmobs, rom `vardebis revoluciamde~ dawyebuli<br />

ruseTis aqtiuroba, CaiTrios saqarTvelo `liberalur imperiaSi~,<br />

mniSvnelovnad gaizarda revoluciis Semdeg 81 , rasac saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebamac Riad Seuwyo xeli 82 . saqarTvelos (da ara marto) xelisuflebis<br />

amgvari qmedebebi imiTac SeiZleba aixsnas, rom msxvili rusuli kompaniebis<br />

xelmZRvanel Tanamdebobebze xSir SemTxvevaSi arian saxelmwifo uSiSroebis<br />

yofili muSakebi, romlebic ruseTis mTavrobis msgavsad, politikur miznebis<br />

misaRwevad mzad arian damatebiTi saxsrebi daxarjon 83 .<br />

viTvaliswinebT ra im realur nabijebs, rac ruseTma `liberalur imperiaSi~<br />

kavkasiis (pirvel rigSi, somxeTisa da saqarTvelos) CasarTavad gadadga,<br />

sruliad usafuZvlod gveCveneba imis mtkiceba, rom saqarTvelo ekonomikuri<br />

(da ara mxolod) TvalsazrisiT mTlianad dakargulia ruseTisaTvis 84 an rom<br />

saqarTvelosa da somxeTs ruseTisaTvis minimaluri ekonomikuri mniSvneloba<br />

aqvT 85 .<br />

2006 wels, saqarTvelos, misi prodasavluri orientaciis gamo, `dasasjelad~,<br />

ruseTma moimizeza qarTuli Rvinisa 86 da mineraluri wylebis 87 uxarisxoba da am<br />

produqtebisa da mTlainad qarTuli sasoflo-sameurneo produqtebisaTvis<br />

daxura Tavisi bazari. es, marTalia, erTi mxriv, uaryofiTad aisaxa<br />

saqarTvelos ekonomikaze 88 , magram, meore mxriv, iqca stimulad, rom<br />

saqarTvelos Tavisi produqciis gasasaReblad axali bazrebi moeZebna 89 . amis<br />

paralelurad ruseTma saqarTvelos blokada gamoucxada da yovelgvari<br />

saaviacio, sarkinigzo, sazRvao, saavtomobilo mimosvla da safosto<br />

gzavnilebic ki SeaCera 90 .<br />

moskovis mier qarTuli sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis akrZalva ar<br />

vrceldeboda afxazeTze 91 . ruseTis Semdeg qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri<br />

80 magaliTad, «Внешторгбанк приобрел контрольный пакет акций Армсбербанка». Ведомости, 2004, 24<br />

марта, http://www.vedomosti.ru/newsline/news/2004/03/24/16606.<br />

81 Владимир Папава, и Фредерик Старр. «Экономический империализм России». Project Syndicate, 2006, 17<br />

января, на сайте http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/papava1/Russian; Vladimer Papava. “The Political<br />

Economy of Georgia’s Rose Revolution”. Orbis. A Journal of World Affairs, 2006, Vol. 50, No. 4, 663-665.<br />

82 Vladimer Papava. “The Essence of Economic Re<strong>for</strong>ms in Post-Revolution Georgia: What about the European<br />

Choice?” <strong>Georgian</strong> International Journal of Science <strong>and</strong> Technology, 2008, Vol. 1, Iss. 1, 3.<br />

83 Sir Basil Markesinis. The American <strong>and</strong> Russian Economies in Moments of Crisis: A Geopolitical Study in Parallel.<br />

ICBSS Policy Brief No. 19, 2009б November, 23-24, 27, http://icbss.org/images/papers/pb_19_markesinis.pdf.<br />

84 Сергей Лунев. «Центральная Азия и Южный Кавказ как геополитические регионы и их значение для России».<br />

Центральная Азия и Кавказ, 2006, № 3 (45), 26.<br />

85 iqve.<br />

86 magaliTad, ix.: Zaal Anjaparidze. “Russia Continues to Press <strong>Georgian</strong> Wine Industry.” Eurasia Daily Monitor,<br />

The Jamestown <strong>Foundation</strong>, 2006, April 20, available at www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt<br />

_news%5D=31602; Mamuka Tsereteli. “Banned in Russia: The Politics of <strong>Georgian</strong> Wine.” Central Asia-Caucasus<br />

Institute Analyst, 2006, April 19, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/3904.<br />

87 Robert Parsons. “Russia/Georgia: Russia Impounds <strong>Georgian</strong> Mineral Water”. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty,<br />

2006, April 19, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/04/e3ee1b53-6b14-4553-a05d-4aa389364dd0.html.<br />

88 Eric Livny, Mack Ott, Karine Torosyan. “Impact of Russian Sanctions on the <strong>Georgian</strong> Economy.” Georgia in<br />

Transition. Lorenz King, Giorgi Khubua, eds. Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang, 2009.<br />

89 Джон Македон. «Российское экономическое давление приводит Грузию к мысли о выходе из СНГ».<br />

Eurasianet – Русский, 2006, 10 мая, http://<strong>russia</strong>n.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav051006ru.shtml.<br />

90 «Россия объявила блокаду Грузии». Лента.Ру, 2006, 2 октября, на сайте<br />

http://lenta.ru/news/2006/10/02/blockade/.<br />

91 magaliTad, Евгений Арсюхин. «Оранжевое предупреждение. Россия запретила ввоз грузинских фруктов».<br />

Российская газета, 2005, 21 декабря, http://www.rg.ru/2005/12/21/m<strong>and</strong>ariny.html.<br />

70

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wylebis Setana afxazeTmac akrZala 92 . aqve aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTma sul sxva<br />

gadawyvetileba miiRo afxazur RvinosTan dakavSirebiT 93 .<br />

dReisaTvis gansakuTrebiT aqtualuria msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

ruseTis gawevrianebis sakiTxi 94 . saqarTvelo, rogorc am organizaciis wevriqveyana,<br />

imTaviTve Tanaxma iyo am organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebaze, Tuki<br />

moskovi miscemda Tbiliss SesaZleblobas, gaexsna sakontrolo-gamSvebi<br />

punqtebi saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT-oseTis<br />

monakveTebze 95 . Tbilisis pirobebi emyareba im mosazrebebs, rom or mezobel<br />

qveyanas Soris saqonlis sazRvarze gadatan-gadmotana unda xdebodes<br />

erovnuli sabaJo kanonmdeblobebiT, rac, samwuxarod, ver xorcieldeba<br />

saqarTvelos mxridan, separatistuli mTavrobebis gadawyvetilebebis gamo,<br />

rasac moskovi Riad uWers mxars.<br />

energetikuli resursebis transportirebis gamo ruseTsa da saqarTvelos<br />

Soris arsebuli dapirispireba SenarCunda `vardebis revoluciis~ Semdegac:<br />

ruseTma yvela Zala da saSualeba gamoiyena, rom win aRdgomoda milsadenebTan<br />

dakavSirebuli proeqtebis realizebas 96 . rusi eqspertebic aRiareben, rom<br />

ruseTi zog yofil sabWoTa respublikasTan, maT Soris, saqarTvelosa da<br />

azerbaijanTan, `energetikul oms~ awarmoebs 97 .<br />

omis Semdgomi periodi<br />

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis daZabulobam kulminacias 2008 wlis<br />

agvistoSi, rusul-qarTuli omis dros miaRwia. amis Semdeg am or qveyanas Soris<br />

Sewyda diplomatiuri urTierTobebi. am omma da ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis aRiarebam eWvqveS daayena is, Tu ramdenad mizanSewonilia<br />

damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis arseboba, romlic mxolod<br />

<strong>for</strong>malurad aRiarebs masSi Semavali qveynebis sazRvrebis daurRvevlobas 98 .<br />

ruseTis agresiis Semdeg, rogorc mosalodnelic iyo, saqarTvelo gamovida<br />

damoukidebel saxemwifoTa Tanamegobrobidan 99 .<br />

92<br />

magaliTad, «Вслед за Россией грузинские вина и минеральные воды запретила Абхазия». News.Ru, 2006, 15<br />

мая, на сайте http://www.newsru.com/finance/15may2006/abhasia.html.<br />

93<br />

magaliTad, Анатолий Гордиенко. «Винно-политический обгон. “Букет Абхазии” вернется на российский<br />

рынок раньше “Хванчкары”». Независимая газета, 2007, 17 октября, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2007-10-<br />

17/6_obgon.html; «Абхазия возобновит экспорт вина в Россию». Алкогольный портал, 2007, 8 октфбря,<br />

http://tatalc.ru/tatalc2/?pg=3&bl=1&md=2&iddoc=11139.<br />

94<br />

magaliTad, Katinka Barysch, Robert Cottrell, Franco Frattini, Paul Hare, Pascal Lamy, Maxim Medvedkov,<br />

Yevgeny Yasin. Russia <strong>and</strong> the WTO. London: Centre <strong>for</strong> European Re<strong>for</strong>m (CER), 2002,<br />

http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/p394_<strong>russia</strong>_wto.pdf.<br />

95Tea gulariZe, `mniSvnelovani berketi”. Civil.Ge, 2007, 1 ivnisi, saitze<br />

http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=15448; “baqraZe natos Sesaxeb da ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebaze<br />

saubrobs”. Civil.Ge, 2008, 25 Tebervali, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=17576.<br />

96<br />

magaliTad, Steve LeVin. The Oil <strong>and</strong> the Glory: The Pursuit of Empire <strong>and</strong> Fortune on the Caspian Sea. New<br />

York: R<strong>and</strong>om House, 2007; Mamuka Tsereteli. “Beyond Georgia: Russia’s <strong>Strategic</strong> Interests in Eurasia”. Central<br />

Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst, 2008, June 11, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4879.<br />

97<br />

С. Б. Дружиловский. «К вопросу об альтернативной стратегии Российской Федерации в сфере энергетической<br />

политики», Средиземноморье – Черноморье – Каспий: между Большой Европой и Большим Ближним<br />

Востоком. Под ред. Н. П. Шмелева, В. А. Гусейнова, А. А. Язьковой. Москва: Издательский дом «Граница»,<br />

2006, 80.<br />

98<br />

Roy Allison. “Russia Resurgent? Moscow’s Campaign to ‘Coerce Georgia to Peace’.” International Affairs, 2008,<br />

Vol. 84, No. 6, р. 1161.<br />

99<br />

`saqarTvelo tovebs dsT-s — saakaSvili~. Civil.Ge, 2008, 12 agvisto, saitze<br />

http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=19096; “parlamentma dsT-dan gamosvlas dauWira mxari”. Civil.Ge,<br />

2008, 14 agvisto, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=19145.<br />

71

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olo periodSi iseTi STabeWdileba rCeba, rom saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris<br />

aranairi ekonomikuri urTierToba ar arsebobs. es ase araa, radgan saqarTvelo<br />

aris samuSao Zalis `eqsportiori~ ruseTSi, xolo ruseTi ki saqarTveloSi<br />

investiciebis erT-erTi mTavari `eqsportioria~.<br />

sagareo vaWrobis sferoSi arsebuli mniSvnelovani SezRudvebis gamo<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris vaWroba dReisaTvis sakmaod Sekvecilia, Tumca<br />

sruliad Sewyvetili ar aris. oficialuri statistikuri monacemebis Tanaxmad,<br />

ruseTSi qarTuli eqsportis wili, saqarTvelos eqsportis mTel<br />

moculobasTan SedarebiT, 2005 wlis (anu erTi wliT adre, sanam ruseTi<br />

qarTuli produqciis Tavis bazarze Setanas akrZalavda) 17,8 procentidan 2008<br />

wels 2,0 procentamde Semcirda, 2010 wels ki 2,2 procenti Seadgina 100 . igive<br />

tendencia SeiniSneba saqarTveloSi rusuli importis wilis SezRudvis<br />

TvalsazrisiTac: Tuki 2005 wels ruseTidan saqarTveloSi importi 15,4<br />

procents Seadgenda, 2008 wels es maCvenebeli 6,7 procentamde Semcirda, xolo<br />

2010 wels 5,5 procenti Seadgina 101 . aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom 2010 wlis<br />

saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi ruseTs ukavia mexuTe adgili<br />

(TurqeTis, azerbaijanis, ukrainisa da germaniis Semdeg), magram win uswrebs<br />

aSS-s, bulgareTs, CineTs da a.S. 102<br />

cnobilia, rom saqarTvelos bevri moqalaqe, maT Soris eTnikurad<br />

qarTvelebic, romlebmac miiRes ruseTis moqalaqeoba da cxovroben ruseTSi, 103<br />

TavianTi Semosavlis nawils saqarTveloSi macxovrebel naTesavebs uricxaven.<br />

ruseTis mier saqarTvelosTan savizo reJimis SemoRebam da 2006 wels ruseTSi<br />

mcxovrebi eTnikurad qarTvelebis (maT Soris ruseTis moqalaqeebisac) 104<br />

gamoZevebam, sabanko sistemis ganviTarebasTan erTad, xeli Seuwyo fuladi<br />

gzavnilebisTvis sabanko arxebis gamoyenebas, ramac mniSvnelovnad Caanacvla<br />

postsabWoTa sivrceSi gavrcelebuli sistema, romelic efuZneboda<br />

naTesavebisTvis fulis gagzavnis praqtikas nacnob-megobrebis xeliT 105 . am<br />

tendenciaze 2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos ommac ki ver iqonia<br />

gavlena. 2005 wels (anu qarTvelebis ruseTidan gamoZevebamde erTi wliT adre)<br />

saqarTveloSi sul gadmoiricxa 403 mln. aSS dolarze meti, aqedan ruseTidan —<br />

240 mln. aSS dolarze meti, ramac mTeli fuladi gzavnilebis 59,6 procenti<br />

Seadgina. 2008 wels fuladi gzavnilebis odenoba, 2005 welTan SedarebiT,<br />

gaizarda 2,6-jer da 1002 milioni aSS dolari Seadgina, sadac 2,6-jeraa<br />

gazrdili fuladi gzavnilebi ruseTidan da Seadgens TiTqmis 634 mln. aSS<br />

dollars _ ukve fuladi gzavnilebiT miRebuli mTliani Tanxis 63,3<br />

procents 106 . 2009 wels, globaluri finansuri krizisis gamo, saqarTveloSi<br />

gadmoricxulma fuladma gzavnilebma (sul 842 mln. aSS dolari) ukve 2008 wels<br />

Tanxis 84 procenti Seadgina, ruseTidan ki, ufro cota, _ mxolod 71,0<br />

procenti (ruseTidan saqarTveloSi gadmoricxuli fuladi gzavnilebis wilma<br />

100 `saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba qveynebis mixedviT~. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli<br />

samsaxuri, http://www.geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=136&lang=geo.<br />

101 iqve.<br />

102 iqve.<br />

103 ruseTSi aqtualuria SromiT imigraciis problema (ix.: С. В. Антуфьев. «Реалии трудовой<br />

иммиграции в современной России». Право и безопасность, 2005, № 3 (16), август,<br />

http://dpr.ru/pravo/pravo_16_18.htm).<br />

104 Владимер Папава. «Нелиберальная “либеральная империя” России». Project Syndicate, 2007, 28 февраля,<br />

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/papava2/Russian.<br />

105 Merab Kakulia. “Labour Migrants’ Remittances to Georgia: Volume, Structure <strong>and</strong> Socio-Economic Effect.”<br />

<strong>Georgian</strong> Economic Trends, 2007, October, p. 56.<br />

106 `fuladi gzavnilebi qveynebis mixedviT~. saqarTvelos erovnuli banki,<br />

http://www.nbg.gov.ge/index.php?m=306.<br />

72

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Seadgina mTliani Tanxis naxevarze meti _ 53,5 procenti) 107 , rac, pirvel rigSi,<br />

ruseTSi ekonomikuri krizisis gansakuTrebuli simZimiT aixsneba. 2010 wels,<br />

2009 welTan SedarebiT, saqarTveloSi gaizarda fuladi gzavnilebis odenoba<br />

rogorc saerTod (940 mln. aSS dolari), ise ruseTidanac (530 mln. aSS dolari),<br />

Sesabamisad gaizarda ruseTidan saqarTveloSi gadmoricxuli fuladi<br />

gzavnilebis wilic, romelmac 56,4 procenti Seadgina 108 .<br />

gacilebiT rTulia saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi Cadebuli rusuli (da ara marto<br />

rusuli) investiciebis met-naklebad zusti odenobis dadgena, radgan<br />

statistikuri in<strong>for</strong>macia imdenad arasrulyofilia, rom masze dayrdnoba ar<br />

iZleva realuri viTarebis Sesaxeb safuZvliani daskvnebis gakeTebis<br />

saSualebas. amis ZiriTadi mizezia is, rom bevri firma, romelmac pirdapiri<br />

investiciebi ganaxorciela, daregistrirebulia ofSorul zonebSi, ris gamoc<br />

SeuZlebelia dadgindes am fuladi nakadebis realuri warmomavloba. amasTan,<br />

oficialuri statistikis Tanaxmad, ruseTi, saqarTveloSi 2010 wels<br />

ganxorcielbuli investiciebis mixedviT, niderl<strong>and</strong>is da aSS-is Semdeg, mesame<br />

adgilzea 109 .<br />

mas Semdeg, rac moskovma aRiara afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis saxelmwifo<br />

damoukidebloba, Tbilisis pozicia ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT ufro kargad gamoikveTa: Tu oficialuri moskovi<br />

nebas ar miscems qarvel mebaJeebs imuSaon am or separatistul teritoriaze,<br />

anu or qveyanas Soris arsebul saerTaSoriso doneze aRiarebul sazRvrebze,<br />

saqarTvelo oficialurad ar daeTanxmdeba ruseTis msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciaSi gawevrianebas 110 . 2011 wlis martSi, ruseT-saqarTvelos omis<br />

Semdeg pirvelad, bernSi (Sveicaria) ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

gawevrianebis Taobaze saTaTbirod erTmaneTs oficialurad Sexvdnen ruseTisa<br />

da saqarTvelos warmomadgenlobiTi delegaciebi. rogorc Cans, aseTi<br />

Sexvedrebi 2011 wlis manZilze kidev Catardeba.<br />

isev rTulia viTareba azerbaijanis energetikuli resursebis<br />

transportirebis derefnad saqarTvelos gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebiT. ruseTsaqarTvelos<br />

omma es mdgomareoba kidev ufro gaarTula. am omis dros rusulma<br />

aviaciam dabomba saqarTveloze gamavali milsadenebi, romlebic sakmaod<br />

moSorebiTaa samxreT oseTidan, romlis dacvac omis dawyebis <strong>for</strong>maluri<br />

sababi iyo 111 . omis Sedegad eWvqveS dadga satransporto derefnis _<br />

saqarTveloze gamavali milsadenebis usafrTxoeba 112 . sabednierod,<br />

energetikuli resursebis saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebasTan<br />

107 iqve.<br />

108 iqve.<br />

109 `2010 wels pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi 16%-T Cemcirdeba~. Civil.Ge, 2011, 12 marti,<br />

http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23765.<br />

110 Кристиан Лоу. «Грузия не отказывается от своей позиции по поводу вступления России в ВТО».<br />

ИноСМИ.ru, 2010, 28 октября, на сайте http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20101028/163900779.html<br />

111 magaliTad, Alex<strong>and</strong>er Jackson. “IA Forum Interview: Vladimer Papava.” International Affairs Forum, 2008,<br />

August 14, http://ia-<strong>for</strong>um.org/Content/ViewInternalDocument.cfm?ContentID=6377.<br />

112 Stephen F. Jones. “Clash in the Caucasus: Georgia, Russia, <strong>and</strong> the Fate of South Ossetia.” Origins: Current Events<br />

in Historical Perspective, 2008, Vol. 2, Iss. 2,<br />

http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/origins/article.cfm?articleid=20; Jad Mouawad. “Conflict Narrows Oil Options <strong>for</strong> West.”<br />

The New York Times, 2008, August 13, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14oil.html;<br />

John Roberts. “Georgia Falls Victim to Pipeline Politics.” BBC News, 2008, August 12,<br />

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7557049.stm.<br />

aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom rusuli agresiis erT-erT mizans swored saqarTveloze gamavali<br />

milsadenebis usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli eWvebis gaZliereba warmoadgenda (Pierre Hassner.<br />

“One Cold War Among Many?” Survival, 2008, Vol. 50, No. 4, 250).<br />

73

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dakavSirebuli ndobis aRdgenas didi dro ar dasWirvebia 113 . garda amisa,<br />

faqtma, rom moskovma am gziT ver SeZlo mieRwia dasaxuli miznisaTvis _<br />

gaekontrolebina milsadenebi 114 , anu yofili ssrk-is energoresursebis<br />

dasavleTisaken transportirebis sruli monopolizeba moexdina, ubiZga<br />

amerikasac da evropasac, rom ufro gulmodginebiT Sedgomodnen navTobisa da<br />

gazis transportirebisaTvis ruseTis alternatiuli gzebis Ziebas 115 .<br />

problemis mogvarebis zogierTi gza<br />

ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris Camoyalibebuli<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis zemoT warmodgenili analizis mixedviT, naklebi<br />

optimizmi gvrCeba imedisaTvis, rom uaxloes momavalSi am mxriv viTareba<br />

mniSvnelovnad Seicveba. Cvens pesimizms orive qveynis liderebis gancxadebebic<br />

aRrmavebs 116 . Tumca, saqarTvelos prezidentis mixeil saakaSvilis mcdelobas,<br />

ruseTis xelmZRvanelobasTan daewyo dialogi 117 , rusi kolegis ukiduresad<br />

negatiuri pasuxi mohyva 118 .<br />

am viTarebis mixedviT, SedarebiT SesaZleblad gveCveneba status-kvos<br />

SenarCuneba saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobebSi. aseT SemTxvevaSi<br />

gagrZeldeba is ekonomikuri urTierTobebi, romlebic am bolo wlebSi<br />

Camoyalibda _ ruseTis msxvili kompaniebi arian erT-erT mTavari<br />

`moTamaSeebi~ saqarTveloSi moqmed ucxoel investorebs Soris, xolo<br />

saqarTvelo _ ruseTSi samuSao Zalis `mimwodebeli~. amasTan, ruseTis bazari<br />

kvlav daxuruli iqneba qarTuli Rvinis, minaraluri wylebisa da sxva sasoflosameurneo<br />

produqciisaTvis, xolo saqarTvelo win aRudgeba ruseTis msoflio<br />

savaWro organizaciaSi Sesvlas, aseve gagrZeldeba dapirispireba Tbilissa da<br />

moskovs Soris energoresursebis transportirebasTan dakavSirebiT.<br />

laparakia qarTuli produqtebisaTvis ruseTis bazris gaxsnaze, ruseTis<br />

msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT konsensusis<br />

miRwevaze da navTobisa da gazis transportirebis sferoSi midgomebis<br />

Secvlaze. qvemoT yvela am mimarTulebas cal-calke ganvixilavT.<br />

ruseTs saqarTvelosaTvis savaWro embargo oficialurad ar gamoucxadebia,<br />

qarTuli produqtebisaTvis ruseTis bazri ki ruseTis mTavarma sanitariulma<br />

eqimma am produqtebis uxarisxobis momizezebiT daxura. aqedan gamomdinare,<br />

ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesvlis Semdegac SeeZleba qarTuli<br />

warmomavlobis produqciis, viTomda uxarisxobis mimizezebiT, ruseTis<br />

bazarze ardaSveba 119 . Sesabamisad, qarTuli produqtebis rusul bazarze<br />

113<br />

Vladimir Socor. “Business Confidence Returning to the South Caucasus Transport Corridor.” Eurasia Daily<br />

Monitor, The Jamestown <strong>Foundation</strong>, 2008, Vol. 5, No. 186, September 28,<br />

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=33978.<br />

114<br />

Ariel Cohen, <strong>and</strong> Lajos F. Szaszdi. “Russia’s Drive <strong>for</strong> Global Economic Power: A Challenge <strong>for</strong> the Obama<br />

Administration.” The Heritage <strong>Foundation</strong>, 2009, Backgrounder No. 2235, January 30,<br />

http://www.heritage.org/research/Russia<strong>and</strong>Eurasia/bg2235.cfm.<br />

115<br />

Ivan Krastev. “Russia <strong>and</strong> the Georgia War: the Great-Power Trap.” Open Democracy News Analysis, 2008, August<br />

31, http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/<strong>russia</strong>-<strong>and</strong>-the-<strong>georgia</strong>-war-the-great-power-trap<br />

116 magaliTad, `saakaSvili: putins saqarTvelosTvis araferi kargi ar surs~. Civil.Ge, 2010, 22<br />

ianvari, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=22261; «Путин высмеивает грузинского лидера<br />

Саакашвили». ИноСМИ.ru, 2000, 20 ноября, http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20091120/156575284.html.<br />

117<br />

magaliTad, Ия Агулашвили. «Примет ли Медведев предложение Саакашвили?». Резонанси, 2009, 17<br />

марта, http://www.apsny.ge/analytics/1237355387.php.<br />

118<br />

magaliTad, «При Саакашвили Россия и Грузия не восстановят отношения – Медведев». РИА Новости,<br />

2010, 24 июня, http://www.rian.ru/video/20100624/249738309.html.<br />

119<br />

magaliTad: «Г. Онищенко: Грузия ничего не делает для улучшения качества вин». Yarmarka.net, 2006, 17<br />

июля, http://www.yarmarka.net/news/news.asp?id=37794.<br />

74

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dabrunebis sakiTxis mibma ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

gawevrianebis sakiTxTan, Tundac <strong>for</strong>maluri TvalsazrisiT, ar aris<br />

marTlzomieri.<br />

viTvaliswinebT ra ruseTis mTavari sanitariuli eqimis araerTgzis<br />

gancxadebas akrZaluli qarTuli produqtebis ruseTis bazarze Sesatanad<br />

molaparakebebis aRsadgenad mzadyofnasTan dakavSirebiT 120 da am ori qveynis<br />

liderebs Soris arsebul politikur daZabulobas, razec zemoT gvqonda<br />

laparaki, vfiqrobT, rom ruseTis bazarze dabrunebis iniciativa uSualod am<br />

produqtebis mwarmoebeli msxvili qarTveli mewarmeebisagan da maTi<br />

gaerTianebebisagan unda wamovides (magaliTad, meRvineTa asociaciisagan). es<br />

Tavad mewarmeTa interesebSia, amitom swored maT unda imuSaon, raTa maT mier<br />

warmoebuli produqtebi akmayofilebdes ruseTis saxelmwifo sanitariuli<br />

samsaxuris mier dadgenil xarisxis moTxovnebs. saeqsporto produqtebis<br />

qarTveli mewarmeebis gaaqtiureba an dadebiT Sedegebs gamoiRebs da ruseTis<br />

bazari maTTvis gaixsneba, an kidev erTxel daanaxebs mTel saerTaSoriso<br />

sazogadoebas moskovis saqarTvelosTan damokidebulebas da ruseTis bazris<br />

daxurvis problema `sanitariuli~ (rasac mudmivad xazs usvams ruseTis mxare)<br />

CarCoebidan gamova da aSkarad miiRebs politikur datvirTvas. aqve<br />

auclebladaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom im dros, rodesac daxuruli iyo<br />

ruseTis bazari, qarTulma Rvinoebma gauZles xarisxis gamocdas rogorc<br />

evropis qveynebSi 121 , ise aSS-Si 122 da am fonze Tuki ruseTis mTavari sanitariuli<br />

eqimi qarTuli Rvinoebis akrZalvas kvlavac maTi uxarisxobiT axsnis, es kidev<br />

ufro Seulaxavs moskovs saxels, vidre es 2006 wels iyo.<br />

gansakuTrebiT mwvaved dgas ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

Sesasvlelad saqarTvelos Tanxmobis miRebis problema. Tbilisi, miuxedavad<br />

imisa, rom ar Seucvlia Tavisi moTxovnebi ruseTis mimarT 123 , drodadro<br />

acxadebda, rom mzadaa daiwyos moskovTan molaparakebebi ruseTis msoflio<br />

savaWro organizaciaSi 124 Sesasvlelad da maTi pirveli Sexvdra Catarda kidec<br />

2011 wlis martSi (rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna) 125 . moskovis optimizms, rom<br />

daZlevs qarTul `bariers~, safuZvlad udevs varaudi, rom aSS aiZulebs<br />

Tbiliss gaxdes ufro damTmobi ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

120 magaliTad: «Онищенко предложил возобновить винные переговоры с Грузией». Лента.Ру, 2006, 11<br />

августа, http://lenta.ru/news/2006/08/11/alko1/; «Онищенко: Грузия хочет возобновить поставки вин в Россию».<br />

kvkz.ru, 2007, 31 июля, на сайте<br />

http://kvkz.ru/2007/07/31/onishhenko_gruzija_khochet_vozobnovit_postavki_vin_v_rossiju.html; «Онищенко: у<br />

Грузии нет желания возобновлять поставки "Боржоми" в Россию». Кавказский узел, 2010, 5 января,<br />

http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/163891/.<br />

121 magaliTad: Keti Chkhikvadze. “Small-Biz: Planning to Export to the EU?” The Financial, 2010, January 11,<br />

http://www.finchannel.com/Main_News/Business/74435_Small-Biz%3A_Planning_to_Export_to_the_EU?/; Keti<br />

Chkhikvadze. “Who in the EU Knows about <strong>Georgian</strong> Wine?” The Financial, 2011, February 02,<br />

http://www.finchannel.com/Main_News/Geo/81380_Who_in_the_EU_Knows_about_<strong>Georgian</strong>_Wine?/.<br />

122 magaliTad: Dave DeSimone. “Wines from Republic of Georgia Blend Modern, Traditional Styles.” The<br />

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 2010, July 27, http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/ae/s_692191.html; Elizabeth<br />

Downer. “Wine from Georgia? It's a Great Story.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 2010, September 02, http://www.postgazette.com/pg/10245/1084192-389.stm.<br />

123 magaliTad: `ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebaze saqarTvelos pozicia `ucvlelia~. Civil Georgia,<br />

2010, 5 oqtomberi, http://www.civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=21238; Десмонд Батлер. «Премьер-министр Грузии<br />

обозначил позицию по вопросу вступления России в ВТО». ИноСМИ.ru, 2010, 7 октября,<br />

http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20101007/163434813.html.<br />

124 magaliTad, «Власти Грузии готовы к переговорам с РФ по поводу вступления России в ВТО».<br />

Независимая газета, 2010, 12 сентября, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2010-12-09/6_gruzia.html.<br />

125 `ruseTma da saqarTvelom vmo-ze molaparakebebi ganaaxles~. Civil Georgia, 2011, 10 marti,<br />

http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23753.<br />

75

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SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT 126 . marTalia, aSS mouwodebs saqarTvelos, iyos ufro<br />

`kreatiuli~ am mimarTulebiT 127 , magram vaSingtoni imavdroulad<br />

erTmniSvnelovnad usvams xazs, rom molaparakebebi saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris<br />

ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT aris<br />

ormxrivi procesi, raSic aSS ar ereva 128 .<br />

cnobilia, rom saqarvelos strategiuli partniorebi _ aSS da evrokavSiri _<br />

ar malaven, rom dainteresebuli arin ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

SesvliT da 2011 wels dasrulda kidec molaparakebebi, romelTa Sedegadac<br />

ruseTma miiRo Tanxmoba organizaciaSi gawevrianebaze 129 .<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze sazRvris<br />

sabaJo kontrolTan dakavSirebuli problemebisgan ganyenebiT ori azri ar<br />

aris, rom saqarTveloc aranaklebaa dainteresebuli ruseTTan rogorc<br />

msoflio savaWro organizaciis wevrTan savaWro urTierTobebiT, radgan es<br />

garemoeba Tvisobrivad gaaumjobesebs ruseT-saqarvelos savaWro-ekonomikur<br />

urTierTobebs da maT ufro prognozirebads gaxdis. gaTvaliswinebiT imisa,<br />

rom saqarTvelos interesebSi aseve ar Sedis aSS-Tan da evrokavSirTan<br />

urTierTobebis garTuleba, vfiqrobT, rom Tbilisi am sakiTxSi garkveul<br />

daTmobebze wava.<br />

am konteqstSi sayuradReboa am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos zogierTi<br />

opoziciuri politikuri partiis liderebis mier wamoyenebuli midgoma, rom<br />

Tu moskovi Tbiliss uflebas ar miscems gaxsnas sakontrolo-gamSvebi punqtebi<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze,<br />

maSin Tbiliss SeuZlia wavides kompromisul variantze da mosTxovos moskovs<br />

am monakveTebSi romelime legitimuri saerTaSoriso organizaciis<br />

warmomadgenlebis dayeneba 130 . aseTi organizacia SeiZleba iyos evrokavSiri,<br />

romlis damkvirveblebic ganlagdebian miTiTebul adgilebSi 131 .<br />

Cveni mosazrebiT, es midgoma, romelic SeiZleba saqarTvelos<br />

xelmZRvanelobisTvisac misaRebi iyos, sakmaod Seesabameba realobas, oRond<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis mogvarebaSi unda CaerTos<br />

msoflio sabaJo organizaciac. mxedvelobaSia misaRebi is garemoeba, rom orive<br />

es qveyana aris msoflio sabaJo organizaciis wevri (saqarTvelo _ 1993 wlidan,<br />

xolo ruseTi _ 1992 wlidan), organizaciisa, romlis erT-erTi mTavari<br />

amocanaa sabaJo sferoSi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis ganviTareba da<br />

romelsac aqvs mWidro kavSiri interpolTan, gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos<br />

kontrteroristul organizaciasTan, gaeros samsaxurTan, romelic muSaobs<br />

narkotikebis kontrolis mimarTulebiT.<br />

126<br />

Anders Åslund. “Why Doesn’t Russia Join the WTO?” The Washington Quarterly, 2010, Vol. 33, No.2, p. 11,<br />

http://www.twq.com/10april/docs/10apr_Aslund.pdf.<br />

127<br />

`aSS vmo-Si gawevrianebis Taobaze ruseT-saqarTvelos davis `kreatiuli gadawyvetisken~<br />

mouwodebs~. Civil Georgia, 2010, 20 oqtomberi, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23258.<br />

128<br />

`obamas mrCeveli vmo-ze ruseT-saqarTvelos molaparakebebis Sesaxeb~. Civil Georgia, 2011, 5<br />

marti, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23737.<br />

129<br />

magaliTad, Elizabeth Williamson. “Obama: Russia Belongs in WTO.” The Wall Street Journal, 2010, June 25,<br />

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704911704575327004122683016.html; Juliane von Reppert-<br />

Bismarck, <strong>and</strong> Alexei Anishchuk. “EU Agrees to Back Russia's WTO Entry.” Reuters, 2010, December 7,<br />

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/07/us-eu-<strong>russia</strong>-wto-idUSTRE6B621R20101207.<br />

130<br />

magaliTad, `irakli alasania qarTul mxares ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebis Tanxmobis<br />

winapirobad or winadadebas sTavazobs~. GHN,<br />

2011, 7 marti, http://www.ghn.ge/news-36411.html.<br />

131<br />

magaliTad, `giorgi TargamaZe ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT or qveyanas<br />

Soris dialogis dawyebas miesalmeba~. GHN, 2011, 7 marti, http://www.ghn.ge/news-36379.html.<br />

76

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energetikuli resursebis transportirebis sferoSi gansakuTrebuli<br />

mniSvneloba eniWeba milsadenebis qselis diversifikaciis sferoSi axali<br />

midgomebis SemuSavebas. es, pirvel rigSi, unda daefuZnos e.w. `alternatiuli<br />

milsadenebis~ paradigmas. rogorc cnobilia, kaspiis zRvis auzis<br />

naxSirwyalbadis resursebs miiCneven ruseTis naxSirwyalbadis resursebis<br />

alternativad da milsadenebi, romlebiTac kaspiis navTobi da gazi dasavleTis<br />

bazrebs ruseTis gverdis avliT miewodeba (aseve milsadenebis is proeqtebi,<br />

romlebic amas ganaxorcieleben), iTvleba ruseTze gamavali milsadenebis<br />

`alternatiulad~. termini `alternatiuli~ garkveulwilad moicavs ruseTis<br />

dapirispirebas sxva qveynebTan.<br />

milsadenebis qselis ganviTarebis aRqmis amgvari xelovnuroba kargad Cans<br />

baqo-Tbilisi-sufsis navTobsadenis, baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis da samxreTkavkasiuri<br />

gazsadenis magaliTebze. am navTobsadenebiT transportirebuli<br />

navTobi rusuli navTobis eqsportis mxolod aT procents Tu Seesabameba,<br />

xolo samxreT-kavkasiuri gazsadeniT transportirebuli gazi _ gazis rusuli<br />

eqsportis or procents 132 . bunebrivia, rom aseTi TanafardobiT baqo-Tbilisisufsisa<br />

da baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenebi da samxreT-kavkasiuri<br />

gazsadeni ver Seasruleben rusuli milsadenebis `alternatiul~ funqcias.<br />

sinamdvileSi baqo-Tbilisi-sufsis, baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis, samxreTkavkasiuri<br />

gazsadeni Tu ruseTis teritoriaze gamavali, navTobisa da gazis dasavleTSi<br />

gadamtani milsadenebi, aris urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebi. navTobisa da<br />

gazis Seuferxebeli miwodebisTvis ki saWiroa swored milsadenebis iseTi<br />

sistemis arseboba, sadac es milsadenebi ar iqnebian urTierTdakavSirebuli da<br />

gauTvaliswinebel SemTxvevebSi (magaliTad, teqnikuri xarvezebis an remontis<br />

dros) SeuZliaT momxmarebels daubrkoleblad miawodon es produqtebi.<br />

yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, aucilebelia `alternatiuli<br />

milsadenebis~ paradigmidan gadavideT `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~,<br />

anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmaze 133 . es ukanaskneli ki efuZneba<br />

partniorobas im subieqtebs Soris, romlebic moipoveben, transportirebas<br />

axorcieleben da navTobsa da gazs moixmaren. yvela am mxares Soris konsensusi<br />

safuZvlad `milsadenebis harmonizacias~ daedeba.<br />

Zalian mniSvnelovania, rom yvela moqmedi milsadeni, aseve milsadenebis<br />

dReisaTvis aqtualuri proeqtebi _ `TeTri nakadi~, `nabuqo~, `CrdiloeTis<br />

nakadi~ da `samxreTis nakadi~ _ ganixilebodes `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~<br />

paradigmis farglebSi. amisaTvis aucilebelia yvela dainteresebulma mxarem<br />

miiRos principuli gadawyvetileba _ iTanamSromlon erTmaneTTan, raTa<br />

daculi iyos momxmareblis uflebebi, rom energetikuli resursebi<br />

Seuferxeblad miewodebodes maT. am mimarTulebiT inicitiva, pirvel rigSi,<br />

unda wamovides saqarTvelosgan (ukeTesi iqneba, Tuki saqarTvelo<br />

132 es sakiTxebi gacilebiT dawvrilebiT ix.: Vladimer Papava, Sabit Bagirov, Leonid Grigoriev, Wojciech<br />

Paczynski, Marcel Salikhov, <strong>and</strong> Micheil Tokmazishvil. Energy Trade <strong>and</strong> Cooperation Between the EU <strong>and</strong> CIS<br />

Countries. CASE Network Reports, No. 83. Warsaw: CASE-Center <strong>for</strong> Social <strong>and</strong> Economic Research, 2009,<br />

http://www.case.com.pl/upload/publikacja_plik/23703888_CNR_83_final.pdf.<br />

133 Vladimer Papava <strong>and</strong> Michael Tokmazishvili. “Pipeline Harmonization Instead of Alternative Pipelines: Why the<br />

Pipeline ‘Cold War’ Needs to End.” Azerbaijan in the World. The Electronic Publication of Azerbaijan Diplomatic<br />

Academy, 2008, Vol. I, No. 10, June 15, http://www.ada.edu.az/biweekly/issues/150/20090327030535315.html;<br />

Vladimer Papava <strong>and</strong> Michael Tokmazishvili. “Russian Energy Politics <strong>and</strong> the EU: How to Change the Paradigm.”<br />

Caucasian Review of International Affairs, 2010, Vol. 4 (2) – Spring,<br />

http://www.criaonline.org/Journal/11/Done_Russian_Energy_Politics_<strong>and</strong>_EU_How_to_Change_the_Paradigm_by_Vl<br />

adimer_Papava_<strong>and</strong>_Michael_Tokmazishvili.pdf.<br />

77

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azerbaijanTan t<strong>and</strong>emSi imoqmedebs 134 ) da evrokavSirisa da aSS-is aqtiuri<br />

daxmarebiT unda daarwmunon moskovi, rom `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~<br />

paradigma marTebulia da mizanSewonilia misi realizacia.<br />

yovelive zemoTqmuli rom SevajamoT, ganxiluli alternativebidan yvelaze<br />

naklebad mizanSewonilia pirveli _ uaxloes momavalSi saqarTvelo-ruseTs<br />

Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebis status-kvos SenarCuneba. ra Tqma unda,<br />

gacilebiT saxarbielo iqneboda: a)winsvla qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebis<br />

ruseTis bazarze dasabruneblad msxvili qarTveli mewrmeebisa da maTi<br />

gaerTianebebis iniciativiT; b)ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis<br />

mogvarebaSi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis (magaliTad, evrokavSiris)<br />

warmomadgenlebis, maT Soris, msoflio sabaJo organizaciis, CarTva ruseTis<br />

msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebaze saqarTvelos Tanxmobis<br />

sanacvlod; g)`alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmidan<br />

`urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~<br />

paradigmaze gadasvla, romelic daefuZneba navTobisa da gazis mompovebeli,<br />

transportirebiT dakavebuli da momxmarebeli subieqtebis partniorobas.<br />

amgvarad, warmodgenili mimarTulebebiT muSaobis dawyeba SeiZleba<br />

paraleluradac moxdes, radgan es mimarTulebebi alternatiulia ara<br />

erTmaneTis mimarT, aramed saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri<br />

urTierTobebis status-kvos SenarCunebisa.<br />

rekomendaciebi<br />

ukanaskneli ori aTwleulis manZilze saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris arsebuli<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis analizis safuZvelze gamovlinda ZiriTadi<br />

gadauWreli problemebi, romlebic xels uSlian am urTierTobebis Semdgom<br />

ganviTarebas. am sakiTxebis mosagvareblad aucilebelia:<br />

• daubrundes qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebi ruseTis bazars;<br />

• gamoinaxos konsensusi ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

Sesasvlelad;<br />

• daiwyos TanamSromloba navTobisa da gazis evropis mimarTulebiT<br />

transportirebis sferoSi.<br />

am mimarTulebebiT muSaoba SesaZlebelia paralelur reJimSi.<br />

qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebis ruseTis bazarze dabrunebis sakiTxebiT,<br />

pirvel rigSi, unda dakavdnen is mewarmeebi (da maTi gaerTianebebi), romelTac<br />

dakarges es bazari. saqarTvelos xelisuflebam ki maT xeli ar unda SeuSalos.<br />

ruseTis msoflio savaWro organozaciaSi gawevrianebisTvis saqarTvelos<br />

Tanxmobis sanacvlod Tbilisma unda mosTxovos moskovs, rom am or qveyanas<br />

Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis mowesrigebis saqmeSi CaerTon saerTaSoriso<br />

organizaciebi (magaliTad, evrokavSiri), maT Soris _ msoflio sabaJo<br />

organizacia. mocemuli problemis mosagvareblad didi mniSvneloba aqvs am<br />

organizaciebis mzaobas, miiRon monawileoba sabaJo sakiTxebis mowesrigebaSi<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvrebis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze.<br />

amisaTvis saarTvelos xelisuflebam evrokavSiris Sesabamis stuqturebTan da<br />

msoflio sabaJo organizaciis xelmZRvanelobasTan unda daiwyos<br />

molaparakebebi.<br />

134 Vladimer Papava. “Formation <strong>and</strong> Development of the “Caucasian T<strong>and</strong>em”.” Azerbaijan Focus, 2009, Vol. 1 (1).<br />

78

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saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris navTobisa da gazis evropisaken transportirebis<br />

sferoSi TanamSromlobis dasawyebad aucilebelia `alternatiuli<br />

milsadenebis~ paradigmaze uaris Tqma da gadasvla `urTierTSemavsebeli<br />

milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmaze. paradigmaTa<br />

aseTi Canacvleba SesaZlebeli gaxdeba mxolod aqtiuri moqmedebebis<br />

SemTxvevaSi yvela dainteresebuli mxaris, pirvel rigSi ki, evrokavSirisa da<br />

misi im wevri-qveynebisa, romlebic uSualod iReben (an momavalSi miiReben)<br />

navTobsa da gazs saqarTvelos gavliT. am mizniT saqarTvelos xelisuflebam<br />

aqtiurad unda imuSaos uSualod am qveynebTan da aseve evrokavSirTan, raTa<br />

moxdes zemoT aRniSnuli `alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmis<br />

`urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~<br />

paradigmiT Canacvleba. aranaklebi aqtiurobaa saWiro am mimarTulebiT aSS-is<br />

xelmZRvanelobasTan samuSaod, romelsac arsebiTi gavlena aqvs dasavleTisa<br />

da evraziis energetikuli politikis Camoyalibeba-ganxorcielebaze.<br />

daskvnebi<br />

miuxedavad saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobebis sirTulisa, gansakuTrebiT<br />

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg, am qveynebs Soris ekonomikuri kavSirebi ar<br />

gamwydara. grZeldeba vaWroba am or qveyanas Soris (marTalia, Tvisobrivad<br />

SedarebiT dabal doneze), ufro mniSvnelovani gaxda rusuli kapitalis<br />

aqtiuroba qarTul ekonomikaSi, xolo qarTuli samuSao Zala (sxva yofili<br />

sabWoTa respublikebis msgavsad), Tavis mxriv, aqtiurad gamoiyeneba rusul<br />

ekonomikaSi, Tanac ruseTSi momuSaveebi TavianTi Semosavlis nawils<br />

saqarTveloSi mcxovreb naTesavebs ugzavnian.<br />

amasTan, saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobebSi dagrovda iseTi<br />

mwvave problemebi, romelTa mosagvarebladac gansakuTrebuli yuradRebaa<br />

saWiro. es problemebia: ruseTis bazarze qarTuli produqciis dabruneba,<br />

ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT konsensusis<br />

miRweva da navTobisa da gazis evropisaken transportirebis saqmeSi<br />

TanamSromloba. Tuki pirveli problemis mosagvareblad iniciativa unda<br />

wamovide qarTveli saqonelmwarmoeblebisa da maTi gaerTianebebidan, meore da<br />

mesame problemis gadawyvetaSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebisa da am sakiTxebiT uSualod dainteresebuli saerTaSoriso<br />

sazogadoebis aqtiur moqmedebebs. saerTaSoriso organizaciebis <strong>for</strong>matma,<br />

romelTa wevrebi arian saqarTveloc da ruseTic, SeiZleba mniSvnelovani roli<br />

iTamaSon garkveuli pozitiuri Sedegebis misaRwevad.<br />

79

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saqarTvelos ekonomikis saerTaSoriso pozicionireba:<br />

moskovidan danaxuli perspeqtivebi 135<br />

Sesavali<br />

80<br />

boris frumkini<br />

ekonomikis mecnierebaTa k<strong>and</strong>idati,<br />

ruseTis mecnierebaTa akademiis<br />

ekonomikis institutis seqtoris gamge<br />

2011-2012 wlebSi gamoCnda saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri<br />

pozicionirebis Tvisobrivi gaumjobesebis unikaluri SesaZleblobebi, aseve _<br />

misTvis strategiulad mniSvnelovan ruseTTan urTierTobebSic. TumcaRa, amis<br />

realizacia winaswar ar aris garantirebuli.<br />

erTi mxriv, saqarTvelosTvis ara Tu SenarCunebuli, gaZlierebulic ki aris<br />

globaluri da regionuli gamowvevebi. qronikuli msoflio krizisi<br />

(energetikuli da sawarmoo) qveyanaSi, sadac importirebulia navTobisa da<br />

gazis 100 procenti, xolo sursaT-sanovagis _ 80 procenti 136 , xels uwyobs<br />

inflaciis zrdas da aferxebs `energetikuli da sasursaTo Ratakebis~ ricxvis<br />

Semcirebas. mzardi damokidebuleba gare Semodinebebze (2010 wels sagareo<br />

vaWrobis uaryofiTi saldo mSp-is 30 procents Seadgenda, dagrovili<br />

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi _ 50 procents, saerTo sagareo vali _ mSp-is<br />

80 procentze mets) postkrizisul periodSi, msoflio meurneobis aramdgradi<br />

aRdgenis pirobebSi, qarTul ekonomikas swrafad moqmedi disbalansiTa da<br />

defoltiTac ki emuqreba. amasTan, saeWvoa, rom qveyanam ganmeorebiT miiRos im<br />

masStabis saerTaSoriso finansuri daxmareba, rogoric miiRo 2008 wels (mSp-is<br />

35 procenti). aseve naklebsavaraudoa saqarTvelos natoSi da, gansakuTrebiT,<br />

evrokavSirSi gawevrianeba. msoflio savaWro organizaciis wamyvani wevriqveynebi<br />

gaRizianebuli arian saqarTvelos poziciis gamo, romelic ar<br />

Tanxmdeba ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebas, radgan<br />

ruseTi xels uSlis saqarTvelos savaWro-ekonomikur eqspansias Tavis bazarze.<br />

sakmaod gaicrica saqarTvelos, rogorc `navTobsadenis demokratiis~ imiji,<br />

romelic win aRudga ruseTis `naxSirwyalbadovan despotizms~, radgan<br />

navTobsa da gazs axla `neomonarqiuli~ azerbaijanidan iRebs. regionul<br />

WrilSi `mSvidobismoyvare qveynebis~ saerTaSoriso reitingiT saqarTvelo<br />

2010 wels imyofeboda ruseTis doneze, sagrZnoblad CamorCeboda ra<br />

`mSvidobis siyvaruliT~ yvela mezobel qveyanas, garda iranisa. sul ufro<br />

realuri xdeba, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi arsebul mudmiv areulobas daematos<br />

somxeTSi, azerbaijansa da, SesaZloa, iranSi ganviTarebuli `arabuli<br />

revoluciebis sindromi~. arc isaa gamoricxuli, rom saqarTvelos mezobel<br />

regionebSi, sadac kompaqturad dasaxlebuli somxebi da azerbaijanlebi<br />

cxovroben, warmoiSvas socialur-politikuri daZabuloba. humanitarul<br />

problemebsac ar daukargavT simwvave, gansakuTrebiT _ afxazeTidan da<br />

samxreT oseTidan devnilebis problema, Turqi-mesxebis gansaxleba,<br />

gaZnelebuli kontaqtebi ruseTSi arsebul farTo qarTul diasporasTan.<br />

meore mxriv, es gamowvevebi zrdis saqarTvelos geoekonomikur da politikur<br />

potencials. navTobisa da gazis axlo aRmosavleTidan miwodebis darRvevam da<br />

iaponiis atomur eleqtrosadgurebze momxdarma avariam mniSvnelovnad<br />

135<br />

statiaSi moyvanili cifrobrivi monacemebi, Tuki ar aris miTiTebuli sxva wyaro, aRebulia:<br />

http://www.geostat.ge; http://www.nbg.gov.ge; www.cia.gov<br />

136<br />

Шавгулидзе Л. Заброшенное всеми сельское хозяйство. 07.12.2010. www.<strong>georgia</strong>monitor.org

---

gazarda evrokavSiris interesi kaspiis zRvisa da ruseTis naxSirwyalbadovani<br />

resursebis mimarT, rac xels Seuwyobs samxreT kavkasia da ruseTi<br />

`milsadenebTan dakavSirebiT dapirispirebidan~ gadavidnen `milsadenebTan<br />

dakavSirebiT TanamSromlobaze~. msoflio sasursaTo krizisis gaWianurebam<br />

aqtualuri gaxada marcvleulis `qarTuli tranziti~ yazaxeTidan da,<br />

SesaZloa, ruseTidanac. ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi<br />

gawevrianebis mcdelobis konteqstSi izrdeba qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri<br />

urTierTobebis mogvarebis Sansebi. sanam 2013 wlisaTvis saqarTvelo Seudgeba<br />

kreditebis farTomasStabian dafarvas, realuri SesaZlebloba aqvs, rom<br />

daaCqaros warmoebisa da eqsportis modernizacia. izrdeba globalur<br />

moTamaSeTa _ ruseTis, amerikis, evrokavSiris, CineTis _ interesi<br />

saqarTvelos da mTlianad samxreT kavkasiis samxedro-politikuri<br />

stabilurobis mimarT, ramdenadac ruseTis samxreTiT ar unda dauSvan<br />

destabilizacia da `politikuri gaurkvevlobisa da konfliqtebis rkalis~<br />

gavrceleba marokodan avRaneTamde.<br />

statiis mizania gamovlindes axali SesaZleblobebis realizaciis<br />

mimarTulebebi, Sefasdes regionuli <strong>for</strong>mati da am procesis mamoZravebeli<br />

Zalebi. Cveni mTavari amocanaa gamosadegari rCevebis warmodgena.<br />

meTodologiuri TvalsazrisiT statiaSi yuradReba eqceva saqarTvelos<br />

urTierTobebs misTvis mniSvnelovan regionul-integraciul gaerTianebebTan<br />

(arsebul da potenciur) da qarTul ekonomikaSi SedarebiT aqtiurad moqmed<br />

maT biznesstruqturebTan. pirveli aseTi gaerTianebaa ruseTis, belorusisa<br />

da yazaxeTis `sabaJo kavSiri~ 137 (maTTan mWidrod dakavSirebuli ukrainis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiT), samxreT kavkasiaSi saqarTvelos strategiuli partniorebi<br />

(somxeTi da azerbaijani), misi wamyvani partniorebi didi kavkasiidan (TurqeTi<br />

da irani) da saqarTvelos mTavari integraciuli orientiri — evrokavSiri.<br />

meore _ maTi kompaniebi, bankebi da a.S. amgvar midgomas ganapirobebs qveyanebis<br />

CamoTvlili jgufebis axlo (asve uSualo) mezobloba saqarTvelosTan da maTi<br />

mniSvneloba am qveynis sagareo ekonomikuri kavSirebis mxriv. 2010 wels am<br />

qveynebze modioda pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis TiTqmis 55 procenti,<br />

eqsportis _ 72 procenti, importis _ 76 procenti da sazRvargareTidan<br />

fuladi gadaricxvebis _ 87 procenti. amave mizezebiT ar ganixileba<br />

saqarTvelos ekonomikuri kavSirebi aSS-Tan, dsT-Tan (radgan mis farglebSi<br />

Semavali qveynebi moxvdnen saqarTvelos pirveli rigis partniorTa Soris) da<br />

suami (romelic faqtobrivad `gadafara~ evrokavSirTan TanamSromlobis<br />

axalma _ aRmosavleTis partniorobis _ <strong>for</strong>matma).<br />

samuSao hipoTezis saxiT ganixileba Semdegi debulebebi:<br />

• saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri pozicionireba mizanSewonilia<br />

ganixilebodes erTmaneTTan dakavSirebuli globaluri, makroregionuli<br />

da subregionuli aspeqtebiT.<br />

• globaluri aspeqtiT qveyana moiazreba, rogorc rgoli evropa-aziis<br />

urTierTkavSiris geoekonomikuri sistemis CamoyalibebaSi. am procesSi<br />

saqarTvelos ZiriTad partniorebad, gare aqtorebad, warmodgebian<br />

evrokavSiri (rogorc dominanti evropuli) da `sabaJo kavSiri~ (rogorc<br />

mniSvnelovani evraziuli).<br />

137 SemdgomSi moixsenieba, rogorc `sabaJo kavSiri~ (red.).<br />

81

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• makroregionuli aspeqtiT saqarTvelo moiazreba kaspiisa da Sav zRvebs<br />

Soris arsebuli geoekonomikuri sivrcis organul elementad da zemoT<br />

aRniSnul or gare moTTamaSes emateba mesame _ didi kavkasiis qveynebi.<br />

• subregionuli aspeqti vrceldeba uSualod samxreT kavkasiis<br />

geoekonomikur sivrceze da aqcents akeTebs saqarTvelosTan<br />

geografiulad axlomdebare gare aqtorebTan _ `sabaJo kavSirTan~, didi<br />

kavkasiis jgufTan da samxreTkavkasiis jgufTan _ partniorobaze. 138<br />

sxvadasxva <strong>for</strong>matSi ZiriTadad ganixileba saqarTvelos regionulintegraciuli<br />

pozicionirebis ekonomikuri Semadgeneli. amasTan,<br />

gaTvaliswinebulia saqarTvelo-ruseTis ormxrivi savaWro-ekonomikuri<br />

kavSirebi, Tumca ar warmoadgens analizis mTavar obieqts. saqarTvelos<br />

saerTaSoriso pozicionirebis procesebis politikuri Semadgeneli<br />

warmoadgens mxolod ekonomikuri urTierTqmedebis fons. ra Tqma unda, yvela<br />

didi integraciul-ekonomikuri proeqti (kerZod, evrokavSiris farglebSi)<br />

Tavdapirvelad iwyeba da xorcieldeba politikuri niSniT, erovnuli<br />

mTavrobebisa da politikuri elitebis doneze miRweuli konsensusis<br />

safuZvelze. amasTan, SesaZloa amas mxars ar uWerdes da ewinaaRmdegebodes<br />

kidec sazogadoebis didi nawili. Tumca grZelvadian warmatebas eseni mxolod<br />

realuri ekonomikuri wanamZRvrebis safuZvelze SeZleben (es kargad aCvena<br />

evros zonaSi gaCenilma dRev<strong>and</strong>elma krizisma, rac gamoiwvia saberZneTis,<br />

portugaliisa da irl<strong>and</strong>iis moumzadeblobam xeli SeewyoT erTiani savaluto<br />

zonisaTvis). zogjer politikuri da ekonomikuri integraciuli procesebis<br />

gamijvna xdeba gacnobierebulad da mizanmimarTulad. magaliTad, aRmosavleT<br />

evropis eqvsi qveynis evrokavSirTan TanamSromloba aRmosavleTis<br />

partniorobis farglebSi, ekonomikur konteqstSi iTvaliswinebs integracias,<br />

xolo politikurSi _ mxolod asociacias, anu praqtikulad realizdeba<br />

principi, romelic evrokavSiris `periferiis~ mezoblebTan dakavSirebiT<br />

wamoayena evrokomisiis yofilma Tavmjdomarem r. prodim _ `yvelaferi, garda<br />

evrokavSiris institutebSi monawileobisa~. am mxriv gamarTlebuli da<br />

SesaZlebelia SedarebiT damoukidebeli gadaxedva ekonomikuri winapirobebisa<br />

da saerTaSoriso pozicionirebis perspeqtivebisa zemoT aRniSnul sam<br />

ganzomilebaSi, Tumca maTi realizacia mniSvnelovanwilad damokidebuli<br />

iqneba saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris politikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebaze.<br />

problemis aRwera da movlenaTa ganviTarebis SesaZlo scenarebi<br />

bolo xuTwledSi, marTalia, SeiniSneba progresi liberalizaciisa da<br />

gaxsnilobis kuTxiT, ramac, Tavis mxriv, ganapiroba saqarTvelos ekonomikis<br />

struqturuli gaumjobeseba da dinamizacia, magram saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri<br />

TvalsazrisiT, pozitiuri winsvla saqarTveloSi mxolod SezRuduli<br />

xasiaTisaa. aq Zveleburad jer kidev SeiniSneba pasiuri `mimarTuleba~.<br />

ekonomikuri zrda mniSvnelovanwilad ganpirobebulia masirebuli sagareo<br />

fuladi SemodinebebiT. dReisaTvis saqarTvelos pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

investiciebi da mSp, 2007 wlis naxtomiseburi zrdis (wliuri mSp-is TiTqmis 20<br />

procenti) Semdeg 2010 wels 2005 wlis donesac Cascda (5,5 procentze naklebi).<br />

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis xarjze saqarTvelo `postsabWour sivrceSi~<br />

mxolod baltiis qveynebs CamorCeba, sadac 2008 wels ucxouri kapitalis<br />

krizisulma gadinebam warmoebis Sokuri vardna gamoiwvia. pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

138 amgvari midgoma samxreT kavkasiis regionTan gamoyenebulia, magaliTad, statiaSi: Бараташвили Е.,<br />

Баидошвили Д., Экономическая интеграция Грузии на Южном Кавказе. 31.01.2011. www.kavkasia.net/Georgia/article<br />

82

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investiciebis struqtura ar aris gamiznuli modernizaciul zrdaze. 2010 wels<br />

masSi dominirebda transporti da komunikacia (35 procenti), rac zrdis<br />

mxolod infrastruqturul winapirobebs qmnis. uSualod aseT zrdaze<br />

momuSave mrewvelobaze wavida mxolod 16 procenti, amisaTvis saWiro<br />

energetikaze _ 4 procentze naklebi, xolo `inflaciis sawinaaRmdego~ soflis<br />

meurneobaze _ 2 procentze naklebi.<br />

es aSkarad ar aris sakmarisi upiratesad saimporto warmoebis aqtiur<br />

saeqsporto ganviTarebaze gadasasvlelad. 2010 welsac ki eqsportis<br />

struqtura jer kidev naxevarnedleulisa da dabalteqnologiur doneze iyo.<br />

masSi liTonis, madnis, alkoholisa da araZiriTadi sasursaTo produqtebis<br />

wili 50 procents Seadgenda. satransporto saSualebebis sakmaod maRali wils<br />

(daaxloebiT 16 procenti) ganapirobebda msubuqi avtomobilebis<br />

dabalprogresuli reeqsporti, xolo perspeqtiuli eleqtroenergiis wilma ki<br />

3 procentsac ver miaRwia. importis struqtura iyo arasakmarisad efeqturi.<br />

masSi, rac misaRebia, dominirebda gazi, navTobi da navTobproduqtebi (TiTqmis<br />

18 procenti). xolo manqanebisa da xelsawyoebis (transportis garda)<br />

teqnikuri gadaiaraRebisaTvis aucilebeli wili Seadgenda mxolod 15<br />

procents, xorblis, Tambaqosa da mosaxleobisaTvis gankuTvnili wamlebisa ki<br />

_ 10 procents. amasTan, importis wili mSp-Si didi tempiT izrdeboda da 2010<br />

wels 45 procents gadaaWarba. sagareo-savaWro uaryofiTi saldo gaizarda 2,2jer,<br />

gadaaWarba 3,5 miliards da Seadgina mSp-is 31 procenti. igi mxolod<br />

mcired kompensirdeboda pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis meryevi nakadebiTa<br />

da fizikur pirTa fuladi transferebiT (romlis wilic 1,4-jer gaizarda da<br />

mSp-is 8,4 procenti Seadgina). 139 qveyana agrZelebda sesxebiT cxovrebas. saerTo<br />

sagareo vali 2,5-jer gaizarda da 9,4 miliardi, anu mSp-is TiTqmis 84 procenti<br />

Seadgina. oqrosa da savaluto rezervebi sakmarisi iyo mxolod qveynis naxevari<br />

wlis importis gadasaxdelad. importis gazrdam dolarTan mimarTebiT<br />

Seasusta erovnuli valuta da inflaciis donis mixedviT, saqarTvelo gavida<br />

meore adgilze mTel postsabWoTa sivrceSi.<br />

arsebobs saqarTvelos Semdgomi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis sami scenari.<br />

• konservatiuli _ arsebuli tendenciebis rom SenarCundes, ver miviRebT 3<br />

procentze meti namatis mdgrad tempebs, ramac 3-4 wlis Semdeg ukve<br />

SeiZleba gamoiwvios ekonomikis dabalansebulobis darRveva, laris<br />

devalvacia, inflaciis naxtomiseburi zrda, nawilobrivi an sruli<br />

defolti da socialur-politikuri destabilizacia.<br />

• evoluciuri _ garkveulwilad gaumjobesdes struqtura da nawilobriv<br />

moxdes importis Canacvleba (upirveles yovlisa, sursaTis mxriv) da<br />

eqsportis aqtivizacia, rac namatis zrdis saSualo temps (5-6 procenti)<br />

mogvcems, SenarCundeba mcocavi inflacia, valis maRali tvirTi, rodesac<br />

naklebsavaraudoa restruqturizacia; Sedegad gamkacrdeba sagadasaxadosabiujeto<br />

politika, romelic aferxebs investiciebis zrdasa da<br />

mosaxleobis sacxovrebeli pirobebis gaumjobesebas.<br />

• modernizaciuli _ gulisxmobs warmoebisa da saqonlis eqsportis aqtiur<br />

inovaciur-investiciur gardaqmnas (aqve Sedis perspeqtiuli sawarmoosaeqsporto<br />

klasterebis Camoyalibeba), rasac emateba momsaxurebaTaA<br />

139 sazRvargareT mcxovrebi Tanamoqalaqeebis wilis mxriv saqarTvelo (25,1%) somxeTis (28,2%)<br />

Semdeg meore adgilzea, yofili ssrk-is respublikebs Soris.<br />

http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2010/0445/barom01.php<br />

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eqsportze orientirebuli sfero (upirveles yovlisa, energoresursebis<br />

tranziti da sain<strong>for</strong>macio-sakomunikacio trafiki, eleqtroenergiis _<br />

ZiriTadad aranaxSirwyalbadovani warmoSobis, eqsporti, sadac<br />

gamoiyeneba hidroresursebi, qarisa da mzis energia, aseve _ sakuTar<br />

sawarmoo bazaze awyobili turizmi). ganviTarebis am variants SeuZlia<br />

namatis 7 procentze meti zrdis uzrunvelyofa da SesaZloa saqarTvelo<br />

miuaxlovdes deklarirebul amocanas _ 2015 wels eqsportis<br />

gaormagebasTan dakavSirebiT.<br />

saqarTvelo Tavisi SezRuduli bunebrivi, samuSao da finansuri resursebiTa<br />

da bazriT SeiZleba ganviTardes mxolod saerTaSoriso savaWro-ekonomikuri<br />

da sainvesticio TanamSromlobis safuZvelze. amitom ama Tu im scenarTan<br />

miaxloeba bevr rameSi damokidebuli iqneba did evropasa da did kavkasiaSi<br />

mTavar regionul moTamaSeebTan saqarTvelos urTierTobis strategiis swor<br />

arCevanze.<br />

jerjerobiT am urTierTobaTa dinamika da mniSvneloba sustadaa<br />

korelirebuli da xSiradac icvleba. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis<br />

sferoSi upiratesoba aqvs evrokavSirs, Tumca 2001-2010 wlebSi misi pirdapiri<br />

ucxouri investiciebis wili saqarTvelos mSp-Si, 2010 wels maTi moculobis<br />

SemcirebasTan erTad, ormagad — 1,9 procentamde _ daeca. orjer (0,3<br />

procentamde) daeca `sabaJo kavSiris~ wilic, miuxedavad imisa, rom 2010 wels<br />

SeiniSneboda misi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis zrda. 2010 wels patara<br />

namatis pirobebSi oTxjer (0,27 procentamde) Semcirda samxreT kavkasiis wili,<br />

2010 wels misi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi misi patara namatis pirobebSi.<br />

TiTqmis ar Secvlila didi kavkasiis wili (0,37 procenti) 2010 wels, misi<br />

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis SesamCnevi dacemis miuxedavad. eqsportSi<br />

upiratesoba aqvs samxreT kavkasias, saidanac wili saqarTvelos mSp-Si TiTqmis<br />

gaormagda (3,6 procentamde gaizarda) didi kavkasiis ucvleli wilis (2,0<br />

procenti), evrokavSiris wilis mcirediT Semcirebisa (2,6 procentamde) da<br />

`sabaJo kavSiris~ wilis sagrZnoblad vardnis (TiTqmis samjer _ 0,9<br />

procentamde) fonze. importSi mcired mzardi dinamikiT dominirebs<br />

evrokavSiri (12,8 procenti) maSin, roca didi kavkasiis wili gaormagda (8,4<br />

procentamde), samxreT kavkasiis wili praqtikulad ar icvleba (4,5 procenti),<br />

xolo `sabaJo kavSiris~ wili 1,7-jer (3,6 procentamde) Semcirda. `sabaJo<br />

kavSiris~ ucilobeli dominirebis (4,8 procenti saqarTvelos mSp-Si 2010 w.)<br />

erTaderTi sfero aris ucxouri fuladi gadaricxvebi. evrokavSiris wili 3jer,<br />

didi kavkasiisa _ 25-jer, xolo samxreT kavkasiisa TiTqmis 50-jer<br />

naklebi.<br />

saqarTvelos ganviTarebis problemebi da perspeqtivebi unda ganixilebodes<br />

qveynis ZiriTadi regionul-intaegraciuli partniorebis mixedviT.<br />

`sabaJo kavSiTan~ urTierToba. ruseTs `sabaJo kavSirSi~ aqvs dominirebuli,<br />

Tumca _ ara monopoliuri, mdgomareoba. es iZleva SesaZleblobas, rom `sabaJo<br />

kavSiris~ saSualebiT gamoinaxos mravalmxrivi kompromisuli<br />

gadawyvetilebebi, TviT qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobebis<br />

sferoSic. magaliTad, erTiani sabaJo-savaWro politika xels uSlis ruseTs,<br />

Semoiotanos calmxrivi satarifo da arasatarifo SezRudvebi (maT Soris,<br />

sanitariuli, veterinaruli da sxva saxis teqnikuri barierebi, sagangebo<br />

damcavi zomebi) da exmareba savaWro-sainvesticio kavSirebSi msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciis principebis praqtikul gamoyenebas da a.S. `sabaJo kavSiris~<br />

Sesaqmnelad mzadebam da misi funqcionirebis pirvelma Tveebma ukve mogvca<br />

garkveuli Sedegi: 2009 wlis dekemberSi ruseTi daTanxmda saqarTvelos dsT-is<br />

qveynebTan SeenarCunebina savaWro reJimi, miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelo<br />

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gamovida am organizaciidan. 2010 wels kvlav dauSves saqarTvelosTan<br />

piradpiri vaWroba, romelic diplomatiuri urTierTobis SewyvetasTan erTad<br />

aRikveTa. 2011 wlis martSi oficialurad gacxadda saqarTvelodan Rvinisa da<br />

mineraluri wylis ruseTSi Setanis akrZlvis (ramac 2006 wlis Semdeg mkveTrad<br />

Seamcira saqarTvelos eqsporti) gauqmebasTan dakavSirebuli SesaZleblobebis<br />

Sesaxeb (im pirobiT, rom qarTveli mwarmoeblebi gaatarebdnen aucilebel<br />

`sakontrolo RonisZiebebs~) 140 . es nabijebi, pirdapir gamomdinare `sabaJo<br />

kavSiris~ wesebis miRebidan, aseve unda daexmaros saqarTvelos winaaRmdegobis<br />

moxsnas ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT.<br />

2010 da 2011 wlebSi ukve moxerxda saqarTvelo-ruseTis vaWrobis raRac saxiT<br />

amoZraveba. 2005-2010 wlebis periodSi `sabaJo kavSiris~ wili mTlianad<br />

saqarTvelos eqsportSi Semcirda samjer (6,6 procentamde), xolo importSi _<br />

orjer (8,0 procentamde), rac gamoiwvia ruseTis wilis Semcirebam (Sesabamisad<br />

_ 2,2 procenti da 5,5 procenti). amave dros saqarTvelos mTliani eqsportis<br />

moculoba belorussa da yazaxeTSi 6-jer gaizarda, xolo am qveynebidan<br />

importi _ 7-jer. garda amisa, es vaWroba iyo SedarebiT dabalansebuli, vidre<br />

did kavkasiasa Tu evrokavSirTan: `sabaJo kavSiris~ qveynebSi saqarTvelos<br />

eqsporti imports daaxloebiT 26 procentiT faravda maSin, roca did<br />

kavkasiaSi es maCvenebeli iyo 25 procenti, xolo evrokavSirSi _ 21 procenti.<br />

2010-2011 wlebSi ruseTis wilma kvlav iwyo zrda, gansakuTrebiT _ qarTul<br />

importSi (2011 wlis ianvarSi _ TiTqmis 85-mde). ruseTisTvis<br />

naklebmniSvnelovania saqarTvelosTan vaWroba. 2010 wels saqarTveloze<br />

modioda rusuli eqsportis 0,7 procenti da importis 0,1 procenti. `sabaJo<br />

kavSiri~ aseve erTmniSvnelovnad dominirebs saqarTvelos fulad<br />

gadaricxvebSi. 2010 wels misi wili Seadgenda daaxloebiT 85 procents (aqedan<br />

ruseTisa _ 56 procenti), rac 5-jer aWarbebda `sabaJo kavSiris~ qveynebSi<br />

miwodebul qarTul eqsports.<br />

SesamCnevad gaumjobesda mdgomareoba saqarTveloSi pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

investciebis `sabaJo kavSiridan~ Semodinebis TvalsazrisiT. 2005-2009 wlebis<br />

mkveTri vardnis Semdeg, 2010 wels `sabaJo kavSiris~ wili rusuli investiciebis<br />

6-jer zrdis gamo 5-jer gaizarda (5,1 procentamde) da 9,6 procenti Seadgina.<br />

ruseTi, `sagareo `koleqtiuri investirebidan~ saqarTvelos axla mxolod<br />

evrokavSirs uTmobs. rusuli kapitali iyo da rCeba saqarTvelos garedan<br />

investirebis mniSvnelovan faqtorad da qarTul-rusuli savaWro-ekonomikuri<br />

kavSirebis ganviTarebis mTavar mamoZravebel Zalad. 2007 wels rusulma<br />

pirdapirma ucxourma investiciebma Seadgina saqarTvelos mTliani moculobis<br />

rekorduli 50 procenti, anu qveynis mSp-is 25 procenti. 141 miuxedavad am<br />

wilebis Semdgomi Semcirebisa, rusma investorebma SeinarCunes mniSvnelovani<br />

da zogjer gadamwyveti mniSvneloba qarTuli ekonomikisaTvis. 2009 wlis<br />

dasawyisSi TiTqmis 400 kompania, ruseTis kapitalis monawileobiT (maT Soris,<br />

daaxloebiT 100 misi kontrolis qveS), moRvaweobda saqarTvelos ekonomikis<br />

daaxloebiT 50 dargsa da qvedargSi. 142<br />

saqarTveloSi rusuli investirebis specifikas warmoadgens maTi upiratesad<br />

msxvil saxelmwifo Tu kerZo korporaciebSi monawileoba da maTi<br />

koncentracia ekonomikis strategiul sawarmoo-saeqsporto seqtorebSi<br />

(energetika, transporti, telekomunikacia, sabanko seqtori, mompovebeli da<br />

sasursaTo dargebi). ruseTis saxelmwifos mier kontrolirebuli kompania<br />

140 www.gazeta.ru/busines/2011/03/10/<br />

141 Economy of Georgia (country). www.wikipedia.org<br />

142 Economy of Georgia (country). www.wikipedia.org; Российский бизнес в Грузии после Августовской войны.<br />

Аналитическая группа фонда «Наследие Евразии». 02.06.2009. www.eurasianhome.org<br />

85

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`inter-rao~ aris qarTuli eleqtrosadgurebis dadgenili simZlavris TiTqmis<br />

50 procentis mflobeli Tu mmarTveli (aq Sedis umsxvilesi<br />

hidroeleqtrosadguri `engurhesi~ da Tboeleqtrosadguri `mtkvari~),<br />

qveyanaSi jerjerobiT erTaderTi satranzito-saeqsporto maRalvoltiani<br />

eleqtrogadamcemi xazi da gamanawilebeli eleqtroqselis simZlavris<br />

daaxloebiT 34 procenti (kompania `Telasis~ gavliT). SedarebisTvis: axali 17<br />

hesi, romelTa mSeneblobac igegmeba axali qarTuli energoprogramis mixedviT,<br />

simZlavriT 1,3-jer naklebia, vidre erTi `engurhesi~, romelsac marTavs<br />

`inter-rao~. 143<br />

azerbaijanidan importze gadasvlamde saqarTvelos `gazpromi~ somxeTSi gazis<br />

tranzitis sanacvlod wesierad da uwyvetad awodebda gazs (Sida moxmarebis 10<br />

procentis moculobiT). saxelmwifo banki `vneStorgbanki~ akontrolebs<br />

aqtivebis mixedviT sididiT mexuTe banks saqarTveloSi _ `viTibi-banks~,<br />

romelmac, sxvaTa Soris, daafinansa gazsadenebis regionul<br />

eleqtrosadgurebTan dakavSirebuli qarTuli saxelmwifo programis dawyeba.<br />

saxelmwifo koncern `ruseTis rkinigzas~ ekuTvnis wamyvani qarTuli sazRvaogadamzidi<br />

(saborne) kompania, romelic erTmaneTTan akavSirebs foTsa da<br />

ruseTis ports _ `kavkasias~. erT-erTi wamyvani rusuli kerZo kompania<br />

`lukoili~ qarTuli `Svilobilis~ saSualebiT benzinisa da dizelis sawvavis<br />

sacalo vaWrobis daaxloebiT 25 procents akontrolebs, `vimpelkomi~ _<br />

qarTuli fiWuri kavSiris bazris 13 procents, xolo sakmaod gvian gamoCenili<br />

`vim-bil-dani~ _ rZis produqtebis qarTuli bazris 10 procents.<br />

rusuli investiciebi mniSvnelovanwilad uzrunvelyofen qarTuli eqsportis<br />

sawarmoo bazas (feroSenadnobebi, foladi da oqro, azotis sasuqebi, Rvino) da<br />

Sida bazris momaragebas (marcvleulisa da Saqris warmoeba).<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTis kompaniebi ufro saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebrivekonomikuri<br />

interesebis gamtarebi arian ruseTSi, vidre piriqiT _ ruseTisa<br />

saqarTveloSi. mimRebi qveynis mimarT maTi loialoba kargad gamoCnda 2008<br />

wlis SeiaraRebuli konfliqtis dros, roca ruseTis kerZo Tu saxelmwifo<br />

kompaniis arc erT `Svilobils~ ar Seuwyvetia muSaoba, zogma ki gaaaqtiura<br />

kidec (`vimpelkomi~) an daafinansa humanitaruli aqciebi (`vimpelkomi~, `interrao~).<br />

ruseTidan saqarTveloSi fulis gadmoricxvac ar Seferxebula.<br />

`lukoili-saqarTvelo~ 2008 wels gaxda qveynis `krizisuli biujetis~ sididiT<br />

mesame gadamxdeli. aseTi qceva Seafasa qarTulma sazogadoebam. 2008 wlis<br />

oqtomber-dekemberSi Catarebuli sazogadoebrivi azris gamokiTxvis mixedviT,<br />

respondentTa mxolod 36 procenti iyo winaaRmdegi, rom saqarTveloSi bizness<br />

rusuli kapitali yidulobda, xolo 27-ma procentma ruseTTan vaWrobis<br />

SezRudva saqarTvelosaTvis dadebiTad Seafasa. 144 `engurhesis~ funqcionireba<br />

da reabilitacia, romelic teritoriulad saqarTvelosa da afxazeTs Sorisaa<br />

ganawilebuli, mxolod `inter-raos~ mmarTvelobiTaa uzrunvelyofili.<br />

ekonomikuri urTierTobebis simyare, samxedro konfliqtisa da diplomatiuri<br />

da savaWro kavSirebis gawyvetis Semdegac ki daadastura saqarTvelo-ruseTis<br />

sabazo sameurneo interesebis siaxlovem saxelmwifoebriv da korporatiul<br />

(msxvil) doneze. niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia, rom saqarTvelos energetikis saministrom<br />

2008 wlis dekemberSive moawera xeli ruseTis saxelmwifos mier<br />

143 ix.: Doggart C. Russian Investments in Georgia’s Electricity Sector: Causes <strong>and</strong> Consequences. International<br />

Association <strong>for</strong> Energy Economics. IAEE Energy Forum. First quarter 2011. www.iaee.org ; 06.01.2011.<br />

www.news<strong>georgia</strong>.ru<br />

144 Российский бизнес в Грузии после Августовской войны. Аналитическая группа фонда «Наследие Евразии».<br />

02.06.2009. www.eurasianhome.org<br />

86

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kontrolirebul `inter-raosTan~ konfidencialur memor<strong>and</strong>ums `engurhesis~<br />

mmarTvelobis Sesaxeb, xolo 2011 wlis aprilSi `inter-raosTvis~ hesebis _<br />

`xrami-1~ da `xrami-2~ _ sakuTrebaSi gadacemisa da axali sami hesis (jamuri<br />

simZlavriT 90-100 megavatiT _saqarTvelos axl<strong>and</strong>eli eleqtrosadgurebis<br />

19-21 procenti) da TiTqmis 200 milioni aSS dolaris rusuli investiciebiT<br />

`xrami-3~, `xrami-4~, `xrami-5~ mSeneblobis Sesaxeb Tanxmobas. saerTaSorisosafinanso<br />

institutebma, gaiTvaliswines ra energetikis sferoSi arsebuli<br />

mdgradi ormxrivi urTierTqmedeba, ganagrZes rusuli proeqtebis mxardaWera<br />

saqarTveloSi, magaliTad, evrobankma (EBRD) Telass gamouyo 25 milioni aSS<br />

dolaris odenobis krediti da 0,25 milioni aSS dolaris odenobis granti<br />

eleqtrogamanawilebeli qselebis reabilitacia-gafarToebisaTvis, aseve _<br />

`vi-Ti-bi-saqarTvelos~ 7 milioni aSS dolaris odenobis sesxi kerZo seqtoris<br />

regionuli kreditirebis ganviTarebisaTvis (gansakuTrebiT _ soflis<br />

meurneobis sferoSi) 145 .<br />

analogiuri tendenciebi vlindeba yazaxuri kapitalis eqspansiiTac.<br />

saxelmwifos mier kontrolirebuli koncernis `yazmunaigazis~ qarTvelma<br />

`Svilobilebma~ Seisyides qveynis umsxvilesi Tbilisis gazgamanawilebeli<br />

kompania da cnobili sakurorto kompleqsi `borjomi-likani~. mis kontrols<br />

daqvemdebarebuli ruminuli `rompetroli-saqarTvelos~ avtogasamarTi<br />

sadgurebis raodenobac ukve `lukoilisas~ miuaxlovda. `yazmunaigazma~ aseve<br />

daiwyo navTobis tranzituli eqsporti saqarTvelos sazRvao terminalebis _<br />

baTumisa da yulevis _ gavliT. finansur seqtorSi aqtiurad moqmedebs ori<br />

msxvili yazaxuri kerZo banki. erT-erTi maTganis (`turan-alemi~) `Svilobilma~<br />

SeiZina fiqsirebuli kavSirgabmulobis saqarTvelos umsxvilesi kompaniaoperatori.<br />

146 umniSvneloa belorusuli investiciebi saqarTveloSi, ar<br />

moicavs umniSvnelovanes dargebs da bolo ori wlis ganmavlobaSi, belorusis<br />

ekonomikuri mdgomareobis gauaresebasTan erTad, Semcirda kidec.<br />

perspeqtivaSi eri-saxelmwifoebisa da `sabaJo kavSiris~ kompaniebis<br />

interesebi, ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT,<br />

ZiriTadad erTmaneTs emTxveva, Tumca aqvT garkveuli taqtikuri saxesxvaoba.<br />

`inter-rao~ da `gazpromi~ ufro saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikaSi<br />

monawileobis gafarToebiTa da eleqtroenergiis importiT (ukve 2009 wels<br />

saqarTveloze modioda `inter-raos~ eleqtroenergiis importis 17 procenti<br />

da eqsportis 2 procenti) arian dainteresebuli, naklebad _ navTobisa da<br />

gazis tranzitiT (ZiriTadad gazi _ somxeTSi da eleqtroenergia _<br />

somxeTidan) 147 , `yazmunaigazi~ ki ufro dainteresebulia saqarTvelos gavliT<br />

navTobis tranzitis ganviTarebiT (aseve Semdgom zRvis saSualebiT<br />

rumineTamde CataniT, sadac am kompanias aqvs navTobgadamamuSaveblebi).<br />

kompanias `ruseTis rkinigza~ undoda saqarTvelos rkinigzis Tanamflobeli<br />

gamxdariyo, raTa SeZleboda ufro efeqturad moegvarebina sarkinigzosaborne<br />

mimosvla somxeTTan da aRedgina gadazidvebi afxazeTis gavliT. orive<br />

qveynis bankebi eswrafvian monawileoba miiRon saqarTveloSi saerTaSoriso<br />

turizmis ganviTarebis saqmeSi. satelekomunikacio kompaniebi dainteresebuli<br />

arian, rom saqarTvelos gavliT gaiyvanon saimedo gadamcemi evropidan aziaSi.<br />

am mizniT saerTaSoriso kavSiris wamyvanma rusulma operatorma<br />

`rostelekomma~ (saxelmwifos 30-procentiani TanamonawileobiT),<br />

saerTaSoriso konsorciumis farglebSi daiwyo saqarTveloSi wyalqveSa<br />

145 Charap S., Welt C. A More Proactive U.S. Approach tо the Georgia Conflicts. Center <strong>for</strong> American Progress.<br />

February ,2011. www.americanprogress.org ; 08.04.2011. www.news<strong>georgia</strong>.ru<br />

146 Буракова Л. Почему у Тбилиси получились реформы. 13.11.2010. www.<strong>for</strong>bes.ru/ekonomika<br />

147 Charap S., Welt C. das. naSr.<br />

87

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kabelis modernizacia. ruseTis bazarze qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylis<br />

dabrunebas SeeZlo ufro swrafi da ufro mniSvnelovani Sedegis gamoReba<br />

(magaliTad, ruseTSi qarTuli eqsportis Rirebulebis gaormageba 1-2 wlis<br />

ganmavlobaSi), vidre aSS-dan CineTamde gasaRebis axali bazrebis Ziebas. 2005<br />

wels saqarTvelom mxolod ruseTSi 25 milioni boTli Rvino gaitana, xolo<br />

2010 wels mTeli msoflios 46 qveyanaSi _ 15 milion boTlze naklebi. garda<br />

amisa, qarTuli Rvinis eqsportis 79 procentze meti modioda 4 qveyanaze<br />

(ukraina _ 51 procenti, yazaxeTi da belorusi erTad _ 22 procentze meti,<br />

poloneTi _ 6 procenti), xolo danarCen 42 qveyanaze _ mxolod 21 procenti. 148<br />

saqarTveloSi kargi baza arsebobs, rom marcvleuli, zeTi, Rorisa da<br />

frinvelis xorci Semovides ruseTidan, yazaxeTidan _ marcvleuli, fqvili da<br />

saqonlis xorci, rZis produqtebi _ belorusidn. aqauri perspeqtivebi<br />

sakmaod kargia, radgan 2010 wlis gamokiTxviT, rusul sasursaTo nawarms<br />

gacilebiT meti qarTveli momxmarebli endoba (45 procenti), vidre, magaliTad,<br />

iranisa Tu TurqeTis saqonels.<br />

aRsaniSnavia, rom qarTuli eqsportis tradiciuli struqturis mixedviT<br />

savaWro urTierTobis potencialic SezRudulia. `sabaJo kavSiris~ qveynebidan<br />

fuladi gadmoricxvebis gazrdasac ar unda velodoT. ekonomikuri<br />

urTierTobisaTvis impulsis mimcemi SeiZleba gaxdes sain<strong>for</strong>maciosatelekomunikacio<br />

da satransporto-satranzito momsaxurebaTa sferoSi<br />

TanamSromlobis ganviTareba, aseve _ modernizaciuli partniorobis<br />

ganviTareba, magaliTad, samecniero-kvleviT muSaobaSi koordinaciisa da<br />

kooperaciis gaaqtiureba rogorc axal pirobebTan adaptirebuli akademiuri<br />

da dargobrivi mecierebis organizaciis bazaze, ise warmoqmnil samecnieroinovaciur<br />

klasterebSi (magaliTad, universitetebis, teqnologiuri<br />

institutebis garSemo). principSi, arc isaa gamoricxuli, rom axal<br />

organizaciul-teqnologiur bazaze aRdges lokomotivebisa da vagonebis<br />

(`vagonmSenebeli~ holdingis monawileobiT), aseve samoqalaqo daniSnulebis<br />

aviakosmosuri produqciis warmoebis (kompania ТАМ-is monawileobiT) sferoSi<br />

TanamSromloba.<br />

amisaTvis aucilebeli instituciur-samarTlebrivi bazis CamoyalibebisaTvis<br />

xelSemwyobi faqtori iqneboda saqarTvelos Tanamonawileoba, raTa ruseTi,<br />

yazaxeTi da belorusi Sevidnen msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi, riskenac maT<br />

ubiZgeben aSS (yovel SemTxvevaSi, ruseTTan dakavSirebiT) da evrokavSiris<br />

ZiriTadi qveynebi. amgvarad, 2011 wlis aprilSi aSS-is prezidentis yofilma<br />

TanaSemwem erovnuli uSiSroebis sakiTxebSi, erovnuli uSiSroebis sabWos<br />

ruseTisa da evraziis regionis ganyofilebis direqtorma, m. makfolma<br />

pirdapir ganacxada, rom qarTuli sakiTxis mougvareblobam ar unda SeuSalos<br />

xeli ruseTis msofio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebas: `Cven araerTxel<br />

vuTxariT saqarTvelos xelisuflebas, rom ruseTis Sesvlis dablokva da<br />

embargos dadebis saSiSroeba ar aris or qveyanas Soris arsebuli politikuri<br />

problemebis mogvarebis saSualeba. msoflio savaWro organizacia ar<br />

warmoadgens suverenitetisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis sakiTxebis<br />

gadawyvetis saSualebas~ 149 . mizanSewonili iqneboda, rom gamonaxuliyo<br />

saqarTvelos `sabaJo kavSirTan~ TanamSromlobis urTierTmisaRebi gzebi, aseve<br />

misi mierTeba dsT-is farglebSi TanamSromlobis SedarebiT farTo <strong>for</strong>matTan,<br />

2011 wlis maisSi momzadebuli Tavisufali vaWrobis zonisa da 2020 wlamde<br />

148 gamoTvlilia 30.12.2010. www.news<strong>georgia</strong>.ru-s mixedviT.<br />

149 Майкл Макфол. Россия никогда не была ближе к вступлению в ВТО. 15.04.2011.<br />

http://www.voanews.com/<strong>russia</strong>n<br />

88

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periodSi dsT-is wevri-saxelmwifoebis inovaciuri TanamSromlobis<br />

saxelmwifoTaSorisi programis proeqtis xelSekrulebis xelmoweris<br />

safuZvelze.<br />

perspeqtivaSi TanamSromloba `sabaJo kavSirTan~, romelsac ukve aqvs<br />

molaparakebebi Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis Taobaze Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis evropul asociaciasTan, SeiZleba daexmaros saqarTvelos, rom<br />

misTvis xelmisawvdomi gaxdes am asociaciaSi Semavali qveynebis bazrebi.<br />

samxreT kavkasiis qveynebTan urTierToba. saqarTvelos vaWroba somxeTsa da<br />

azerbaijanTan iyo sakmaod dinamikuri da met-naklebad dabalansebuli, Tan<br />

yvela parametriT, garda sazRvargareTidan fuladi gzavnilebisa, liderobda<br />

azerbaijani. 2005-2010 wlebSi samxreT kavkasiis wili saqarTvelos eqsportSi<br />

1,7-jer gaizarda _ TiTqmis 26 procentamde (aqedan azerbaijanisa _ 15<br />

procentamde), importSi _ dastabilurda 10-11 procentis doneze (daaxloebiT<br />

9 procenti), amasTan eqsportiT importis gadafarvis done 1,8-jer gaizarda da<br />

miaRwia saqarTvelosaTvis rekordul maCvenebels _ 79 procents (TiTqmis<br />

samjer meti, vidre `sabaJo kavSirisa~ da didi kavkasiisaTvis). pirdapir ucxour<br />

investiciebSi samxreT kavkasiis wili ki piriqiT Semcirda TiTqmis samjer (5,25mde),<br />

Tumca 2010 wels es nakadi kvlav gaizarda azerbaijanis xarjze. samxreT<br />

kavkasiis roli saqarTvelos fulad gadmoricxvebSi umniSvneloa: 2010 wels _<br />

1,2 procenti (0,5 procenti _ azerbaijanidan). sainvesticio sferoSi<br />

azerbaijanis mxridan upiratesoba aqvT msxvil kompaniebs saxelmwifos<br />

TanamonawileobiT, somxeTis mxridan ki ufro aqtiuria mcire da saSualo<br />

biznesi. am orive qveyanasTan TanamSromlobis ganviTareba ferxdeba ekonomikis<br />

reJimSi arsebuli gansxvavebebiT (saqarTveloSi _ liberalur-gamWvirvale,<br />

ufro administraciul-regulirebadi _ somxeTSi, praqtikulad gaumWvirvale<br />

da avtoritaruli ki _ azerbaijanSi, romelic arc msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciaSi gawevrianebas Cqarobs). SeiniSneba tendencia, rom somxuri<br />

biznesis nawilma sainvesticiod SedarebiT ufro mimzidveli saqarTvelosaken<br />

gadainacvlos. erovnul-saxelmwifoebriv ekonomikur interesebSi gansxvaveba,<br />

piriqiT, stimuls aZlevs ormxriv _ somxur-qarTul da azerbaijanul-qarTul<br />

kavSirebs. somxeTis sagareo vaWrobis TiTqmis 70 procenti saqarTvelos<br />

gavliT tranzitiT xorcieldeba. yarabaRis gadauWreli problemis gamo<br />

azerbaijanis miswrafeba, rom gamonaxos ruseTis alternatiuli marSrutebi<br />

evropisaTvis navTobisa da gazis misawodeblad, xorcieldeba saqarTvelos<br />

gavliT da gverds uvlis SedarebiT mokle gzas, romelic somxeTze gadis. bolo<br />

wlebSi amas daemata somxeTis gverdis avliT saqarTveloze gamavali rkinigzisa<br />

da eleqtrogadamcemi xazis mSeneblobac.<br />

eqsportis msgavsi struqturis gaTvaliswinebiT (garda azerbaijanis<br />

upiratesobisa navTobisa da gazis sferoSi, xolo somxeTis maRali wilisa _<br />

teqnologiur saqonelTan dakavSirebiT), Zneli warmosadgenia erTmaneTTan<br />

vaWrobis mniSvnelovani zrda, Tuki ar moxdeba saqonlis warmoebis<br />

modernizacia da momsaxurebis miwodebis gafarToeba (eleqtroenergiis<br />

gayidva da tranziti, saqarTvelosaTvis navTobisa da gazis tranziti,<br />

telekomunikaciebis trafiki _ internetis siCqariT saqarTvelo jerjerobiT<br />

2-4-jer uswrebs somxeTsa da azerbaijans, Tumca orjer CamorCeba ruseTs).<br />

evrokavSiris araerTma eqspertma, maT Soris, aRmosavleTis partniorobis<br />

sakiTxebiT dakavebulma specialistebmac 150 , aRniSna, rom samxreT kavkasiis<br />

150 ix. mag., poloneli eqspertis azri kavkasiis Sesaxeb: «Торговля – да, сотрудничество – да, интеграция<br />

– нет». 21.02.2011. www.regnum.ru/news; Gromadzki G. Cudów nie oczekujmy. Nowa Europa Wschodnia, № 2/2011.<br />

www.new.org.pl.; Sikorski T. Partnerstwo Wschodnie w Gruzji: pierwsze rezultaty. PISM Biuletyn, № 19, 22.02.2011.<br />

www.pism.pl.<br />

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egionis Sida integraciuli potencialis SezRuduloba gare inovaciursiainvesticio<br />

stimulis gareSe ver daiZleva.<br />

didi kavkasiis qveynebTan urTierToba. TurqeTi da irani aris<br />

saqarTvelosTvis mniSvnelobiT meore jgufi importis (18,5 procenti 2010<br />

wels) da mesame _ eqsportis (14,4 imave wels) TvalsazrisiT. amasTan,<br />

aradabalansebuli vaWrobiT, romelic saqarTvelos sasargeblod ar<br />

moqmedebs, didi kavkasia mxolod evrokavSirs (qarTuli eqsporti imports<br />

mxolod 25 procentiT faravs) CamorCeba. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis<br />

sferoSi didma kavkasiam meoTxe adgilidan mesame adgilas gadainacvla (7,0<br />

procenti 2010 wels), mis win arian mxolod evrokavSiri da ruseTi. fuladi<br />

gadmoricxvebis mxriv didi kavkasia ar TamaSobs mniSvnelovan rols: misi wili<br />

(3,3 procenti) 17-jer naklebia, vidre `sabaJo kavSirisa~ da 6-jer _<br />

evrokavSirisaze. ekonomikuri urTierTobebis yvela mimarTulebiT<br />

pirveloba aqvs TurqeTs. Turqul kompaniebs mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravT<br />

saqarTveloSi mSeneblobis, msubuqi mrewvelobis, ekonomikis sabanko da<br />

satransporto seqtorebSi. saqarTvelos orive saerTaSoriso aeroports<br />

akontrolebs Turquli kompania, romlis mier dadgenil momsaxurebis<br />

tarifebic (Sexamebuli Turquli aviakompaniis dempingur fasebTan)<br />

faqtobrivad azaralebs qarTul aviaxazebs. bolo wlebSi TurqeTi aqtiurad<br />

CaerTo saqarTvelos turistuli kompleqsis ganviTarebaSi. Tumca TurqeTs<br />

mTavari roli aqvs, rogorc azerbaijanis navTobisa da gazis saqarTveloze<br />

gamavali eqsportis momxmarebelsa da tranzitors, aseve _ rogorc<br />

eleqtroenergiis qarTuli da azerbaijanuli eqsportis mzard bazars.<br />

somxeTi ar monawileobs am saerTaSoriso energonakadSi, rac aZlierebs mis<br />

iranisken orientacias (amasTan, somxur energokompleqsSi dominirebs<br />

ruseTi).<br />

TurqeTi sargeblobs Tavisi dominanturi mdgomareobiT, raTa miiRos<br />

tranzitis ufro SeRavaTiani pirobebi, ris Sedegadac azerbaijani da<br />

saqarTvelo Seudgnen alternatiuli marSrutebis Ziebas (bunebrivi airis<br />

transportirebis proeqti `agri~). energetikaSi urTierTobebis<br />

mniSvnelovani Semadgenelia regionSi moqmedi (somxeTsa da iranSi) Tu<br />

daproeqtebuli (TurqeTSi) atomuri eleqtrosadgurebis usafrTxoebis<br />

uzrunvelyofa, romlebic emyareba rusul teqnologiebs, mowyobilobebsa da<br />

saTbobs.<br />

evrokavSirTan urTierToba. saqarTvelos sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobis<br />

yvela mimarTulebiT dominirebs evrokavSiri, garda sazRvargareTidan<br />

gadmoricxuli fuladi gzavnilebisa. TumcaRa, evrokavSirTan vaWroba aris<br />

yvelaze asimetriuli elementi saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobaSi. 2010 wels<br />

evrokavSirze modioda saqarTvelos eqsportis 18,7 procenti da importis<br />

28,2 procenti. evrokavSiris Sesabamisi maCveneblebi iyo: 0,1 procenti da 0,2<br />

procenti _ saqarTvelos `jgufuri partniorebis~ yvelaze dabali done.<br />

aseve yvelaze dabali iyo evrokavSiridan qarTuli eqsportiT importis<br />

gadafarvis maCvenebeli _ 21 procenti. evrokavSiri pirvel adgilzea<br />

saqarTvelos amJamindel pirdapir ucxour investiciebSi, Tumca misi wili<br />

2005-2010 wlebSi Semcirda da 36,3 procenti Seadgina.<br />

mTlianobaSi evrokavSirisaTvis saqarTvelo gacilebiT ufro sainteresoa,<br />

rogorc politikuri partniori, regionSi stabilurobis SenarCunebis<br />

faqtori. es funqcia mniSvnelovanwilad Seasusta 2008 wlis SeiaraRebulma<br />

konfliqtma da amisma Tanamdevma politikurma movlenebma. saqarTvelos<br />

ekonomikuri mniSvnelovneba evrokavSirisaTvis, upirveles yovlisa,<br />

90

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ukavSirdeba mis rols, rogorc energoresursebis tranzitorisa da mezobeli<br />

qveynebis `miznobrivi investiciebis~ placdarmisa.<br />

evrokavSiri (aseve ruseTic) samxreT kavkasias ganixilavs, rogorc<br />

potenciurad erTian ekonomikur sivrces. amitom evrokavSiris qveynebis<br />

mravali kompania (magaliTad, germanuli holdingi `haidelbergcementi~,<br />

romelic saqarTveloSi cementis bazris 80 procents akontrolebs) cdilobs<br />

Camoayalibos erTmaneTTan dakavSirebuli struqturebi saqarveloSi,<br />

somxeTSi, azerbaijanSi, ruseTsa da yazaxeTSic ki. es exeba evrokavSiris<br />

wamyvan bankebsac. aRmosavleTis partniorobisa da aRmosavleT evropis eqvsi<br />

qveynisagan Semdgari asociaciis Sesaxeb am qveynebTan warmoebuli ormxrivi<br />

molaparakebebis (aqve Sedis Tavisufali vaWrobis zonebis Seqmna) meSveobiT<br />

evrokavSiri cdilobs moipovos am qveynebis misTvis xelsayreli<br />

geoekonomikuri da geopolitikuri mdgomareoba. sinamdvileSi aRmosavleTis<br />

partnioroba inicirebuli da jerjerobiT realizebulia, rogorc<br />

evrokavSiris proeqti da ara rogroc evrokavSirisa da `postsabWoTa<br />

eqvseulis~ erToblivi proeqti. am proeqtiT ganpirobebuli gamowvevebi<br />

seriozulia aRmosavleT evropis partniorebisaTvis (aqve Sedis ekonomikis<br />

regulireba, modernizacia da restruqturizacia), saWiroebs politikuri<br />

xelmZRvanelobisa da biznesis daZabul muSaobas da SesaZloa gamoiwvios<br />

(yovel SemTxvevaSi, sawyis etapze) socialur-ekonomikuri daZabuloba. 151 es<br />

mTlainad Seexeba saqarTvelos, radgan aRmosavleTis partnioroba,<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>eli saxiT (anu evrokavSiris biujetidan dafinansebulia mxolod<br />

institucionalur-samarTlebrivi zomebi da ara konkretuli sainvesticio<br />

proeqtebi, romelTa ganxorcielebaSi CarTulia evropuli sainvesticio<br />

bankisa da evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis bankis mier gamoyofili<br />

mniSvnelovani Tanxebi), aseve evrokavSirsa da saqarTvelos Soris Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis samomavlo zonebis savaraudo reJimi Znelad Tu miscems saSualebas<br />

saqarTvelos, rom mTlianad gamoiyenos erovnuli konkurentuli<br />

upiratesobebi. amrigad, <strong>for</strong>malurad sabaJo begaridan TiTqmis Tavisufali<br />

nawarmi saqarTvelodan SeiZleba Seitanon evrokavSirSi faqtobrivad mxolod<br />

mas Semdeg, rac damkvidrdeba evrokavSiris saxelmwifo kontrolis normebis<br />

Sesabamisi xarisxi da usafrTxoeba (anu ara uwinares 2015 wlisa). 152<br />

saqarTvelo, moldovasTan erTad, ufro win wavida evrokavSirTan Tavisufali<br />

vaWrobis zonis Seqmnis momzadebis saqmeSi, vidre `eqvseulis~ sxva qveynebi. am<br />

procesis warmatebulad dasrulebis pirobaa, rom saqarTvelom uari Tqvas<br />

Sromis, konkurentuli da sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis evrokavSiris<br />

TvalsazrisiT `ultraliberalur~ normebze. evrokavSirTan samecnierokooperaciuli<br />

TanamSromloba aseve izRudeba saqarTvelos teqnologiurad<br />

CamorCenili mrewvelobisa da Sida bazris mcire moculobis gamo. amave dros<br />

evrokavSiri mxars uWers saqarTvelos iniciativebs, rom gafarTovdes<br />

evropisaTvis naxSirwyalbadebis miwodebis wyaroebi da marSrutebi, rac<br />

iqneba alternatiuli tranziti ara mxolod ruseTis, aramed TurqeTis<br />

gavliTac, romlis mzardi mniSvnelobac, rogorc navTobisa da bunebrivi<br />

airis tranzitis `saerTaSoriso habisa~, ukve aSfoTebs evrokavSiris wevrqveynebsa<br />

da institutebs.<br />

151 ix. mag.: Gromadzki G. A Challenging Opportunity. The EU plus Six – the Eastern Partnership. Friedrich Ebert<br />

Stiftung. Study, November 2010. www.fes/de/international/moe ; European Partnership: A Strategy <strong>for</strong> 2011 <strong>and</strong><br />

Beyond. Ed. By Ćwiek – Karpowicz <strong>and</strong> Wojna B. Polish Institute of International Affairs. PISM Raporty.15.12.2010.<br />

www.pism.pl/files. Болгова И. Восточное партнерство ЕС в Грузии. 10.02.2011. www.<strong>georgia</strong>monitor.org<br />

152 Шавгулидзе Л. Заброшенное всеми сельское хозяйство. 07.12.2010. www.<strong>georgia</strong>monitor.org<br />

91

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problemis mogvarebis gzebi da rekomendaciebi<br />

globalur aspeqtiT saqarTvelosTvis mizanSewonilia daexmaros da miuerTdes<br />

energetikuli, samrewvelo da ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis sxva saxeebisaTvis<br />

saerTo-evropuli sivrcis Camoyalibebis procesebs, romelTa gzebi da<br />

<strong>for</strong>mebic axla aqtiurad ganixileba ruseTisa da evrokavSiris sakmaod maRal<br />

saeqsperto-politikur doneze.<br />

amgvar midgomas SeuZlia uzrunvelyos qveynebis myari poziciebi msoflio<br />

meurneobis momaval mowyobaSi, aqve Sedis CineTTan konkurencia bunebrivi<br />

resuresebis (pirvel rigSi _ centraluri aziisa) dargSi, raTa moxdes<br />

tradiciuli da alternatiuli energetikis ganviTareba da mrewvelobis<br />

warmoeba. saqarTveloze gamaval satransporto da energetikul satranzito<br />

infrastruqturas SeeZleboda gamxdariyo damatebiTi (da ara konkurentuli,<br />

rogorc axlaa) elementi saerTo-evropuli satransporto-energetikuli<br />

infrastruqturuli sistemisa, romelic teqnikurad arsebobs ruseTisa da<br />

evrokavSiris nacionaluri da saerTaSoriso gazgayvanilobis ukve<br />

urTierTdakavSirebuli sistemis saxiT da romelic potenciurad aerTianebs<br />

navTobsadenebis analogiur sistemebsa (ufro martivia) da eleqtrogadamcem<br />

xazebs (ufro rTulia). es Seexeba rogorc ukve moqmed (baqo-Tbilisi-jeihani,<br />

baqo-Tbilisi-erzerumi), ise daproeqtebul milsadenebs (nabuqo, agri).<br />

saerTo-evropul energosivrces SeeZlo moecva aseve atomuri<br />

eleqtrosadguris ekologiurad ufro usafrTxo da racionaluri ganTavseba<br />

da aratradiciuli wiaRiseuli resursebis gamoyeneba (fiqlis airi,<br />

bituminozuri da fiqlis navTobi), qarisa da mzis energiaze dafuZnebuli axali<br />

mZlavri energoklasterebis erTian energosistemasTan mierTeba. saerTosatransporto<br />

sivrce SeiZleba Camoyalibdes ruseTisa da `sabaJo kavSiris~<br />

sxva qveynebis teritoriebze transkontinenturi tranzitisa da evrokavSiris<br />

mier inicirebuli proeqtebis _ traseka, inogeiti da sxv. _ gancalkevebuli da<br />

xSirad urTierTsawinaaRmdego ganviTarebis sistemebis harmonizebul da<br />

koordinirebul gafarToebaze gadasvlis bazaze, miT umetes, rom am sferoSi<br />

swrafad Zlierdeba CineTis konkurencia. warmoebis sabazo saxeobebis sursaTsanovagis<br />

zrdisaTvis, pirvel rigSi, ruseTsa da yazaxeTSi (romlebic<br />

Sesabamisi miwisa da wylis resursebiT msoflio xuTeulSi Sedian), da `axali<br />

mwvane revoluciis~ safuZvelze SesaZloa efeqturad iqnes gamoyenebuli<br />

saqarTvelos tradiciulad damuSavebuli da velurad mzardi mcenareebis<br />

mdidari biopotenciali.<br />

rac warmovadgineT, saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso ekonomikur `pozicionirebas~<br />

ufro garkveuli da SedarebiT xangrZlivi aspeqtiT warmoaCens. ukve saWiroa<br />

Sefasdes amisi perspeqtivebi, SemuSavdes mimarTulebebi da misi realizaciis<br />

instituciur-samarTlebrivi CarCoebi. mizanSewonili iqneboda misi amocanebis<br />

sapasuxod samTavrobo da biznesis doneze Camoyalibebuliyo saqarTvelos<br />

`sabaJo kavSirTan~ kontaqtebis aqtivizaciis urTierTmisaRebi <strong>for</strong>mebi (aseve<br />

igulisxmeba ruseTTan diplomatiuri kavSiris aRdgena), sadac<br />

gaTvaliswinebuli iqneba maTi monawileoba Sanxais TanamSromlobis<br />

organizaciis moRvaweobaSi, aseve maTi koordinacia evrokavSiris saerTo<br />

politikasTan ekonomikis Sesabamis seqtorebSi (maT Soris, aRmosavleTis<br />

partniorobis sistemis saSualebiT).<br />

makroregionuli aspeqtiT saqarTvelos SeuZlia ufro intensiurad imuSaos<br />

Tavisi, rogorc sakvanZo rgolis, funqciaze kaspiisa da Sav zRvas Soris<br />

Camoyalibebis procesSi myofi ekonomikuri sivrcis or zonas Soris,<br />

romelTagan erTs pirobiTad SeiZleba ewodos `azerbaijani-TurqeTi~, xolo<br />

92

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meores _ `somxeTi-irani~, aseve ruseTTan, romelic TanamSromlobs<br />

makroregionis yvela qveyanasTan.<br />

amisaTvis saqarTvelosaTvis mizanSewonili iqneboda yvela partniorTan<br />

TanamSromlobis harmonizeba (gansakuTrebiT satransporto-energetikul<br />

sferoSi), raTa ar gaRrmavdes somxeTis ekonomikuri da energetikuli<br />

izolacia, rom azerbaijanis navTobisa da bunebrivi airis satranzito<br />

kavSirebs daematos analogiuri kavSirebi yazaxeTTan, win aRudges TurqeTis<br />

kaspiisa da axalrusuli energoresursebis evropisaken tranzitis<br />

monopolistad gadaqcevas, daexmaros iranTan SeTanxmebuli gadawyvetilebis<br />

miRebas kaspiis regionis energoresursebis mopovebisa da tranzitis<br />

sakiTxebSi, CrdiloeT kavkasiis respublikebSi separatistuli mcdelobebis<br />

waxalisebiT xeli ar SeuSalos ruseTTan ekonomikur urTierTqmedebas.<br />

ruseTis federaciis mxolod erTi regonis (CrdiloeT oseTi)<br />

macxovreblebisaTvis uvizo reJimis SemoRebam, rac ar cvlis arsebul<br />

viTarebas (sazRvris gadakveTis punqtebSi ruseTis federaciis yvela moqalaqe<br />

Tavisuflad iRebs vizas), SeiZleba gaaZlieros am regionis mosaxleobis<br />

ekonomikuri (an sxvagvari, saqarTvelosTvis arasasurvelic ki) aqtiuroba<br />

saqarTveloSi, aseve gaaCinos eWvi, rom saqarTvelo xels uwyobs separatistul<br />

ganwyobilebebs ruseTis am regionSi, amiT ki gaauaresos klimati masStaburi<br />

qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobisaTvis.<br />

mniSvnelovani mimarTulebebi SeiZleba yofiliyo afxazeTis gavliT<br />

satransporto mimosvlis gaxsna da energetikuli da ekonomikuri kavSirebis<br />

ganviTareba afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan principiT `CarTuloba aRiarebis<br />

gareSe~, mozdoki-erevnis gazsadenisa da saqarTvelos rkinigzis aqciebis<br />

mniSvnelovani nawilis ruseTisaTvis miyidva. makroregionSi destabilizacias<br />

uwyobs xels am gazsadenis mTlianad Tu umeteswilad azerbaijanisaTvis<br />

miyidvasTan dakavSirebuli spekulaciebi, aseve gzebisa _ azerbaijanisa Tu<br />

yazaxeTisaTvis. 153 aucilebelia am sakiTxebis dabalansebuli gadawyveta, Tan<br />

rogorc saqarTvelos, ise sxva dainteresebuli qveynebis gaTvaliswineba:<br />

rkinigzis sakiTxebSi _ ruseTis, somxeTis, azerbaijanisa da yazaxeTisa,<br />

gazasdenisa _ ruseTis, somxeTisa da azerbaijanisa. nebismier SemTxvevaSi,<br />

navTobis tranzitTan dakavSirebiT miRebul gadawyvetilebebs yazaxeTi<br />

SeaTanxmebs ruseTTan `sabaJo kavSiris~ saerTo politikis farglebSi, xolo<br />

proeqt `agris~ realizacia damokidebuli iqneba evropis gaziT momaragebis<br />

sferoSi ruseTTan konkurenciasa Tu TanamSromlobaze. am azriT<br />

mizanSewonilia gaZlierdes da ganviTardes makroregionuli xasiaTis (maT<br />

Soris Savi zRvis ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis (SzeT) farglebSi)<br />

instituciur-samarTlebrivi instrumentebi, gamoyenebul iqnes aRmosavleTis<br />

partniorobis SesaZleblobebi azerbaijanTan da somxeTTan `horizontaluri<br />

kavSirebis~ dasamyareblad, pirvel rigSi, energetikul da agrosamrewvelo<br />

kompleqsebSi, aseve _ ruseTis CasarTavad konkretuli proeqtebis<br />

ganxorcielebis saqmeSi.<br />

subregionuli aspeqtiT SeiZleba SevCerdeT samxreT kavkasiis erTiani<br />

ekonomikuri da satranzito sivrcis Camoyalibebaze, raTa moxdes somxeTis,<br />

azerbaijanisa da saqarTvelos samrewvelo, samuSao, samecniero da<br />

geoekonomikuri potencialis SedarebiT efeqtiani gamoyeneba, aqve igulisxmeba<br />

maTi socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategiebis harmonizacia, maTi<br />

ekonomikuri reJimebis liberalur-demokratiul safuZvelze `konvergencia~,<br />

153 amas jer kidev 2007 wels miaqcies yuradReba saqarTvelos ekonomikis saministroSi (ix.<br />

Буракова Л. Почему у Тбилиси получились реформы. 13.11.2010. www.<strong>for</strong>bes.ru/ekonomika/ ).<br />

93

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oca gamoiricxeba sagadasaxado da sxva socialur-ekonomikuri dempigi (rasac<br />

iyenebs saqarTvelo) da sasaqonlo dempingi (rasac iyeneben somxeTi da<br />

azerbaijani). amasTan, mizanSewonili iqneboda TvalTaxedva, rom amgvari<br />

procesi SeiZleba gaxdes regionSi amJamindeli konfliqtebis mogvarebis<br />

saSualeba da ara amgvari mogvarebis Sedegi. faqtobrivad Znelad Tu SeiZleba<br />

miviCnioT TurqeTi garantad (da partnioradac ki) `gaerTianebuli~ samxreT<br />

kavkasiisa, Tuki `gamaerTianebeli procesebidan~ izolirebuli iqnebian ruseTi<br />

da irani. aseve aucileblad unda ganisazRvros am gaerTianebis saboloo mizani,<br />

misi organizebis SesaZlo meqanizmebi da qveynebis ukve arsebul<br />

valdebulebebTan kavSirebi.<br />

yvela CamoTvlil aspeqtSi saqarTvelos globaluri da regionuli<br />

saerTaSoriso ekonomikuri pozicionireba dakavSirebulia, da xSirad<br />

pirdapirac aris damokidebuli, erTmaneTis interesebis gaTvaliswinebasTan,<br />

maTi socialur-ekonomikuri strategiebisa da politikis Sesabamisi<br />

elementebis harmonizaciasTan. ra Tqma unda, realuri makrointegraciuli<br />

proeqtebis obieqturi ekonomikuri winapirobebis trans<strong>for</strong>maciisaTvis<br />

saWiro iqneba saqarTvelos da ruseTis elitebis neba da urTierTqmedeba<br />

umaRles politikur doneze da sazogadoebrivi mxardaWera _ orive qveyanaSi.<br />

94

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d a n a r T i<br />

ZiriTad `jgufur~ partniorebTan arsebuli Sida kavSirebis mniSvneloba<br />

saqarTvelos mSp-isTvis, %<br />

maCveneblebi/wlebi<br />

pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

investiciebis mimarTeba mSp-<br />

2005 2007 2009 2010<br />

Tan, aqedan pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

investiciebi Semdegi<br />

7,0 19,8 6,1 5,3 *<br />

qveynebidan:<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~**,<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan***,<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

didi kavkasiidan ****,<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

0,6<br />

0,6<br />

1,04<br />

1,0<br />

0,3<br />

0,3<br />

95<br />

2,3<br />

0,9<br />

0,36<br />

0,4<br />

0,9<br />

0,9<br />

0,06<br />

0,096<br />

0,23<br />

0,28<br />

0,92<br />

0,91<br />

evrokavSiridan 3,8 11,1 2,1 1,9<br />

eqsportis mimarTeba mSp-Tan,<br />

aqedan eqsporti Semdeg<br />

qveynebSi:<br />

`sabaJo kavSiri~,<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciaSi<br />

samxreT kavkasiaSi,<br />

aqedan azerbaijanSi<br />

did kavkasiaSi ****,<br />

aqedan TurqeTSi<br />

cxrili 1<br />

0,3<br />

0,5<br />

0,27<br />

0,45<br />

0,37<br />

0,36<br />

13,4 12,1 10,5 14,0*****<br />

2,6<br />

2,4<br />

1,9<br />

1,3<br />

2,0<br />

1,9<br />

0,8<br />

0,4<br />

2,4<br />

1,3<br />

1,7<br />

1,69<br />

0,5<br />

0,2<br />

2,4<br />

1,5<br />

2,1<br />

2,09<br />

evrokavSirSi 3,4 2,6 2,2 2,6<br />

importis mimarTeba mSp-Tan,<br />

aqedan importi Semdegi<br />

qveynebidan:<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~,<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan,<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

didi kavkasiidan ****,<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

0,9<br />

0,3<br />

3,6<br />

2,2<br />

2,0<br />

1,92<br />

38,6 51,3 40,6 45,4<br />

6,2<br />

5,9<br />

4,2<br />

3,6<br />

4,8<br />

4,4<br />

6,6<br />

5,6<br />

4,3<br />

3,7<br />

7,6<br />

7,2<br />

3,1<br />

2,6<br />

3,9<br />

3,5<br />

7,6<br />

7,3<br />

evrokavSiridan 11,5 15,1 12,1 12,8<br />

fuladi gadaricxvebis<br />

mimarTeba mSp-Tan, aqedan<br />

fuladi gadaricxvebi Semdegi<br />

qveynebidan:<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~,<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan<br />

3,6<br />

2,5<br />

4,5<br />

4,1<br />

8,4<br />

7,9<br />

6,2 8,5 7,8 8,4<br />

3,7<br />

3,7<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan,<br />

0,04<br />

0<br />

0,1<br />

0,1<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

0,04<br />

0<br />

0,04<br />

0,04<br />

didi kavkasiidan ****,<br />

0,1<br />

0,2<br />

0,2<br />

0,2<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

0,2<br />

0,2<br />

0,2<br />

0,2<br />

evrokavSiridan 0,6 0,8 2,8 1,6<br />

* 2010 wlis 3 kvartali;** belorusi, yazaxeTi, ruseTi; ***azerbaijani, somxeTi; **** irani, TurqeTi;<br />

***** mTeli 2010 weli, mSp-is _ 11 234 milioni aSS dolari _ Sefasebidan gamomdinare. roca qveynis<br />

maCvenebeli jgufurs aRemateba, e.i. asaxulia jgufSi Semavali sxva qveynebis pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

investiciebis gadineba. gaTvlilia Semdegi wyaroebis gamyenebiT:<br />

http://www.geostat.ge; http://www.nbg.gov.ge<br />

5,0<br />

4,9<br />

4,3<br />

4,2<br />

4,8<br />

4,7

---

96<br />

cxrili 2<br />

ZiriTad `jgufur~ partniorebis wili saqarTvelos sagareo ekonomikur<br />

urTierTobebSi, %<br />

maCveneblebi/wlebi<br />

pirdapiri ucxouri<br />

2005 2007 2009 2010<br />

investiciebi mTlianad, aqedan<br />

Semdegi qveynebidan:<br />

100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 *<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~**,<br />

8,6<br />

11,4<br />

1,1<br />

5,1<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan 8,6<br />

4,4<br />

1,6<br />

9,6<br />

ukrainidan 0,4 1,2 - 0,2 1,1<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan***,<br />

14,9<br />

1,8<br />

3,7<br />

5,2<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

14,8<br />

2,0<br />

4,5<br />

8,6<br />

didi kavkasiidan ****,<br />

4,8<br />

4,6<br />

15,1<br />

7,0<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

4,8<br />

4,59<br />

14,88<br />

6,91<br />

evrokavSiridan 54,1 56,2 34,1 36,3<br />

eqsporti mTlianad, aqedan<br />

eqsporti Semdeg qveynebSi:<br />

100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0*****<br />

`sabaJo kavSirSi~,<br />

19,2<br />

6,8<br />

4,9<br />

6,6<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciaSi 17,8<br />

3,7<br />

1,9<br />

2,2<br />

ukrainaSi 4,3 7,6 7,4 6,5<br />

samxreT kavkasiaSi,<br />

14,2<br />

20,1<br />

22,4<br />

25,5<br />

aqedan azerbaijanSi<br />

9,6<br />

11,2<br />

14,6<br />

15,4<br />

did kavkasiaSi ****,<br />

14,6<br />

14,4<br />

20,5<br />

14,4<br />

aqedan TurqeTSi<br />

14,1<br />

13,9<br />

19,9<br />

13,6<br />

evrokavSirSi 25,0 21,8 20,9 18,7<br />

importi mTlianad,<br />

aqedan Semdegi qveynebidan:<br />

100,0 100,3 100,0 100,0<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~,<br />

16,1<br />

12,8<br />

7,7<br />

8,0<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan 15,3<br />

11,0<br />

6,5<br />

5,5<br />

ukrainidan 8,8 11,0 9,5 11,5<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan,<br />

10,9<br />

8,5<br />

9,6<br />

10,0<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

9,4<br />

7,3<br />

8,6<br />

9,1<br />

didi kavkasiidan,<br />

12,4<br />

14,9<br />

18,7<br />

18,5<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

11,4<br />

13,9<br />

18,0<br />

17,4<br />

evrokavSiridan 31,8 29,5 29,9 28,2<br />

fuladi gadaricxvebi<br />

mTlianad, aqedan Semdegi<br />

qveynebidan:<br />

100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~,<br />

60,0<br />

58,5<br />

54,6<br />

57,6<br />

aqedan ruseTis federaciidan 59,6<br />

57,2<br />

53,5<br />

56,4<br />

ukrainidan 3,8 2,3 7,7 6,2<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan,<br />

0,06<br />

0,1<br />

1,8<br />

1,2<br />

aqedan azerbaijanidan<br />

0,06<br />

0,1<br />

0,6<br />

0,5<br />

didi kavkasiidan,<br />

2,5<br />

2,0<br />

3,1<br />

3,3<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

2,5<br />

2,0<br />

3,1<br />

3,3<br />

evrokavSiridan 9,6 9,2 36,1 19,4<br />

* 2010 wlis 3 kvartali;** belorusi, yazaxeTi, ruseTi; ***azerbaijani, somxeTi; **** irani,<br />

TurqeTi; ***** mTeli 2010 weli, mSp-is _ 11 234 milioni aSS dolari _ Sefasebidan<br />

gamomdinare. roca qveynis maCvenebeli jgufurs aRemateba, e.i. asaxulia jgufSi Semavali sxva<br />

qveynebis pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis gadineba. gaTvlilia Semdegi wyaroebis gamyenebiT:<br />

http://www.geostat.ge; http://www.nbg.gov.ge

---

saqarTvelos eqsportiT importis gadafarvis done 2010 wels, %<br />

mTlianad 34,8 23,6 26,0 31,0<br />

`sabaJo kavSiridan~,<br />

aqedan ruseTis<br />

federaciidan<br />

samxreT kavkasiidan,<br />

41,5<br />

40,3<br />

97<br />

12,6<br />

8,0<br />

16,6<br />

7,4<br />

25,7<br />

12,3<br />

45,2<br />

37,2<br />

60,9<br />

79,3<br />

aqedan zerbaijanidan<br />

35,8<br />

35,9<br />

44,0<br />

52,6<br />

didi kavkasiidan ****,<br />

40,9<br />

22,8<br />

28,4<br />

24,9<br />

aqedan TurqeTidan<br />

43,0<br />

23,6<br />

28,7<br />

24,3<br />

evrokavSiridan 27,4 17,4 18,2 20,6<br />

gaTvlilia Semdegi wyaroebis gamyenebiT: http://www.geostat.ge<br />

cxrili 3

---

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis mogvarebis perspeqtivebi<br />

Sesavali<br />

98<br />

giorgi Tarxan-mouravi<br />

sazogadoebrivi politikis institutis<br />

TanaTavmjdomare<br />

`TiTqos rusebi xarT, rusuli ki ar gesmiT! ra ucnaurebi brZ<strong>and</strong>ebiT,<br />

batonebo! dacaleba, anu unda moergoT garemoebas, SeZloT droulad<br />

gaCumeba, raRac-raRacebi daiviwyoT, imaze ar ifiqroT, razec Cveulebriv<br />

gefiqrebaT, is ar akeToT, rasac Cveulebriv akeTebT...~<br />

m.e. saltikov-SCedrini, `Tanamedrove idilia~.<br />

bolo ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan moyolebuli,<br />

saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTirTobebSi iyo rogorc gamwvavebis, ise daZabulobis<br />

SedarebiT miwynarebis periodebi, magram TiTqmis arasdros hqonda adgili<br />

normalur da Tanaswor keTilmezoblobas am or, Tundac gansxvavebuli<br />

sididis, qveyanas Soris. am ori qveynis urTierTobam katastroful gamwvavebas<br />

2008 wlis agvistoSi miaRwia, xolo mas Semdeg imyofeba latenturi mtrobis<br />

mdgomareobaSi, xelaxali gamwvavebis riskiT.<br />

raki dReisaTvis saqarTvelosa da ruseTis mTavrobebis urTierTsawinaaRmdego<br />

poziciebi aqvs garkveul sakiTxebSi, kerZod ki _ afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

samarTlebriv statusTan dakavSirebiT, naTelia, rom am or mezobel qveyanas<br />

Soris urTierTobis radikalur gaumjobesebas uaxloes momavalSi ar unda<br />

velodoT. aseT viTarebaSi saWiroa droebiTi modalobis Zieba, romelSic<br />

mxareebi mSvidobian Tanaarsebobas SeZleben da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi<br />

moaxdenen moqmedebebis koordinirebas da xelaxali daZabulobis Tavidan<br />

aicilebas, vidre geopolitikuri Tu Sidapolitikuri pirobebi ise ar<br />

Seicvleba, rom gaxdes SesaZlebeli dReisaTvis dauZleveli winaaRmdegobebis<br />

gadasinjva.<br />

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis modelebi drois sxvadasxva perspeqtivaSi rom<br />

ganvixiloT, aucilebelia isini davinaxoT geopolitikur qvesistemebad,<br />

romlebic damokidebulia mraval faqtorze _ rogorebicaa, kerZod, saerTo<br />

geopolitikur konteqsti, mxareebis mier dasaxuli miznebi da amocanebi,<br />

qveynebis specifika, movlenaTa ganviTarebis SesaZlo scenarebi da<br />

tendenciebi.<br />

geopolitikuri konteqsti<br />

ukanaskneli aTwleulis manZilze bevri iseTi movlena Tu procesi ganviTarda,<br />

ramac safuZvlianad Secvala msoflio wesrigi, xolo cota xnis win<br />

ybadaRebuli `istoriis dasasruli~ mxolod epoqis dasasruli aRmoCnda.<br />

marTlac, civi omis periodSi Camoyalibebuli msoflio mowyoba nel-nela<br />

iqceva istoriad _ Cndeba pirveli niSnebi axali warmonaqmnebisa, romlebic<br />

wina epoqis moZvelebul institutebs cvlian. globalizaciis procesebi axal<br />

saxes iZens, viTardeba alternatiuli _ deglobalizaciis, msoflio wesrigis<br />

fragmentaciis, procesebi. vaRiarebT ra kozma prutkovis princips `moucvads<br />

ver moicav~ da gaviTvaliswinebT ra garkveuli gamartivebis garduvalobas,<br />

SevecdebiT gamovyoT ramdenime mniSvnelovani mimarTuleba da movlena,

---

omlebic gavlenas axdenen qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis globalur<br />

konteqstze.<br />

bolo drois erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani movlena iyo tunisis revolucia,<br />

romelsac mohyva vnebaTaRelvaTa `domino~ CrdiloeT afrikisa da axlo<br />

aRmosavleTis TiTqmis yvela arabul qveyanaSi. arabul revoluciur<br />

gazafxuls globaluri Sedegebi mohyva, man imoqmeda ara marto navTobis fasze,<br />

migraciul nakadebsa Tu iaraRis bazarze, aramed _ politikuri realiebis<br />

axlebur konceptualur gaazrebazec. Tumca aRsaniSnavia `revoluciuri<br />

magaliTis~ sakmaod SezRuduli pirdapiri gavlena arabuli samyaros gareT<br />

arsebul viTarebaze, mraval qveyanaSi, sadac avtoritaruli Tu naxevrad<br />

avtoritaruli reJimi sufevs, politikuri elita SeSfoTebuli adevnebs Tvals<br />

movlenaTa amgvar ganviTarebas 154 .<br />

arabul samyaroSi ganviTarebulma movlenebma gamoiwvia naxSirwyalbadebis<br />

bazris destabilizacia. am fonze navTobis fasebma umaRles niSnuls miaRwia<br />

($118-120 - BRENT) 155 , Tumca Semdeg isev daiwia. amasTan, SeiniSneba SedarebiT<br />

neli, magram radikaluri cvlilebebi msoflio energetikis sferoSi.<br />

igulisxmeba mzardi moTxovna energiis ganaxlebadi da aratradiciuli<br />

wyaroebis gamoyenebaze (Tumca iaponiis movlenebis Sedegad atomurma<br />

energetikam ki Zlieri Soki ganicada). gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba mieniWa<br />

fiqlis gazis mopovebas, rac amcirebs energoresursebis didi momwodebeliqveynebis<br />

gavlenas da kardinalur cvlilebebs iwvevs msoflio energetikul<br />

bazrebze. ase, amJamad aSS gazze moTxovnilebas mTlianad sakuTari wyaroebiT<br />

ikmayofilebs, ramac ukve gamoiwvia gaTxevadebuli airis nakadebis<br />

gadamisamarTeba evropisaken da sxva qveynebisaken, ramac Seamcira maTi<br />

damokidebuleba SedarebiT Zvir milsadenebiT mowodebul gazze. axali<br />

teqnologiebiT SesaZlebelia fiqlis airis resursis sakmaod sarfiani<br />

mopoveba evropaSic (poloneTi, germania, avstria, rumineTi, ukraina). fiqlis<br />

gazis mniSvnelovani maragia aRmoCenili CineTsa da indoeTSic 156 .<br />

ruseTisgan gansxvavebiT, saqarTvelo Raribia naxSirwyalbadebiT, Tumca<br />

garkveuli optimizmis saSualebas iZleva rogorc aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi<br />

ukve eqspluataciaSi Sesuli WaburRilebi, ise Savi zRvis sanapiros gaswvriv<br />

Rrma ganlagebis navTobis pirveli niSnebi 157 . dReisaTvis ki ufro mniSvnelovani<br />

faqtoria saqarTvelos tranzituli funqcia, raki aq navTobisa da gazis<br />

ramdenime mniSvnelovani milsadeni gadis. rac Seexeba hidroenergetikul<br />

resursebs, riTic marTlac mdidaria saqarTvelo, maTi srulfasovnad<br />

gamoyenebisaTvis saWiroa investiciebi — rogorc arsebuli obieqtebis<br />

rekonstruqciisTvis, ise axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobisTvis.<br />

marTalia, hidroenergetikaze damokidebuleba saqarTvelos xdis mgrZnobiares<br />

154 saintereso iyo CrdiloeT afrikis movlenebTan dakavSirebiT ruseTis federaciis<br />

prezidentis dimitri medvedevis reaqcia. vladikavkazSi Catarebul erovnuli<br />

antiteroristuli komitetis sxdomaze man ganacxada: `SexedeT im viTarebas, romelic axlo<br />

aRmosavleTsa da arabul samyaroSi Seiqmna. is umZimesia. didi sirTuleebia mosalodneli. zog<br />

SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba moxdes didi, mWidrod dasaxlebuli saxelmwifoebis dezintegracia, maTi<br />

patar-patara nawilebad daSla... simarTles TvalebSi unda SevxedoT. isini (NB) aseT scenarebs<br />

adre CvenTvis amzadebdnen, axla, miT umetes, ufro Seecdebian mis ganxorcielebas. nebismier<br />

SemTxvevaSi, CvenTan es scenari ar gauvaT. magram yvelaferi, rac iq xdeba, pirdapir<br />

zemoqmedebas axdens Cvens situaciaze, vgulisxmob sakmaod xangrZliv, aTwleulebis<br />

perspeqtivas~. http://kremlin.ru/news/10408<br />

155 http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/09/us-markets-commodities-id INTRE7287I520110309<br />

156 http://www.gas-shales.org/<br />

157 ix . : Boyko Nitzov. The Black Sea as the New North Sea. New Atlanticist, May 19, 2010.<br />

http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/black-sea-new-north-sea<br />

99

---

klimaturi ryevebis mimarT, magram es Tan e.w. pikuri simZlavreebis eqsportis<br />

saSualebas iZleva, ris Sedegadac eqsport-importis jamuri balansic<br />

dadebiTia.<br />

2008 wlis ekonomikurma krizisma gaaRrmava msoflio ekonomikis struqturuli<br />

aramdgradoba, da sakmaod Sors mimavali sistemuri cvliebebi dagvitova.<br />

CineTma yvelaze metad moigo krizisiT, SeinarCuna ra zrdis maRali tempi — 2011<br />

wlis dasawyisisaTvis misi ekonomika ukve msoflioSi zomiT meore. amasTan,<br />

CineTi iqca Sua aziis mTavar ekonomikur partniorad da investorad da<br />

mniSvnelovanwilad gauswro ruseTs. marTalia, CineTs win bevri siZnele<br />

elodeba 158 , magram eWvs ar iwvevs, rom uaxloesi aTwleulis manZilze is<br />

msoflio ekonomikaze did gavlenas SeiZens maSin, roca ruseTis roli msoflio<br />

ekonomikaSi sul ufro Semcirdeba. bolo wlebSi geopolitikuri konteqsti<br />

ruseTis sasargeblod rodi Seicavala, radgan misi mdgomareoba damZimebulia<br />

sxvadasxva problemiTa da sisustiT 159 . krizismac ki ver ubiZga ruseTs<br />

radikaluri re<strong>for</strong>mebisken, romlebic mimarTuli iqneboda qveynis<br />

modernizaciisaken. igi aRmoCnda garSemortymuli SedarebiT ufro dinamikuri<br />

qveynebiTa da regionebiT, xolo misi roli regionsa Tu msoflioSi nel-nela<br />

mcirdeba. marTalia, postsabWoTa sivrceSi ruseTs ZlierebiT verc erTi misi<br />

mezobeli ver Seedreba, magram ruseTis gavlenis Semcireba kargad gamoCnda am<br />

qveynebis erTsulovan uarSi, eRiarebinaT afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukidebloba. ruseTma sakmaod mtkivneulad gadaitana ekonomikuri<br />

krizisi 160 , Tumca maleve SeZlo am krizisidan gamosvlac. ruseTis umTavres<br />

problemad rCeba maRali inflacia. ufro grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi ki<br />

ruseTis ekonomikisaTvis did safrTxes warmoadgens misi ukiduresi<br />

damokidebuleba navTobis msoflio fasebze da, Sesabamisad, e.w. `hol<strong>and</strong>iuri<br />

senis~ riski, rac zRudavs ekonomikis diversifikacias da mas<br />

araprognozirebad xasiaTs aniWebs. Tuki mxedvelobaSi miviRebT ruseTis<br />

instituciur sisusteebs, `resursulma dawyevlilobam~ SesaZloa sagrZnoblad<br />

Seaferxos qveynis stabiluri ekonomikuri ganviTareba 161 . Ekonomikuri zrdis<br />

meore mniSvnelovani Semaferxebeli faqtoria qveyanaSi samuSao resursebisa 162<br />

158 ase, magaliTad, 2011 wlis TebervalSi dafiqsirda savaWro balansis deficiti (7.3 miliardi<br />

aSS dolaris moculobiT, wina wlis Tebervlis maCvenebelTan SedarebiT) da rogorc importis,<br />

aseve eqsportis susti zrda. analitikosebis azriT, es SeiZleba Rrma problemebze<br />

miuTiTebdes, rasac didwilad SesaZloa gare moTxovnis vardniT gamowveuli Sida moTxovnebis<br />

arasakmarisi zrda ganapirobebdes. «China posts a surprise trade deficit as exports slow». BBC News, 10<br />

March 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12688877<br />

159 `amrigad, araefeqtiani ekonomika, naxevrad sabWoTa socialuri sfero, jerac susti<br />

demokratia, negatiuri demografiuli tendenciebi, arastabiluri kavkasia. es Zalian didi<br />

problemebia iseTi saxelmwifosTvisac ki, rogoricaa ruseTi,~ _ d. medvedevi. ix.: Д. Медведев.<br />

Россия, вперед! 10 сентября 2009. http://kremlin.ru/news/5413<br />

160 `msoflio ekonomikurma krizisma aCvena, rom Cven saqme arc ise kargad gvaqvs. gamalebuli<br />

gardaqmnebis ocma welmac ki ver uSvela Cvens qveyanas, rom Tavi daeRwia nedleulze am<br />

damamcirebeli damokidebulebisgan. Cvenma dRev<strong>and</strong>elma ekonomikam sabWoTa ekonomikisagan<br />

yvelaze mankieri Tviseba gadmoiRo _ igi didwilad uyuradRebod tovebs adamianebis<br />

moTxovnilebebs. samamulo biznesi, mcire gamonaklisis garda, ar awarmoebs, ar qmnis<br />

xalxisaTvis saWiro nivTebsa da teqnologiebs. vaWrobs imiT, rac mas ar gaukeTebia _<br />

nedleuliT an importirebuli saqonliT. ruseTSi warmoebuli mza produqciis ZiriTadi wili<br />

ki jerjerobiT ar gamoirCeva maRali konkurentunarianobiT. Д. Медведев. Россия, вперед! 10<br />

сентября 2009. http://kremlin.ru/news/5413<br />

161 ix.: Rol<strong>and</strong> Beck, Annette Kamps <strong>and</strong> Elitza Mileva. Long-term growth prospects <strong>for</strong> the Russian economy.<br />

European Central Bank, Frankfurt. March 2007. http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=967603<br />

162 `umniSvnelovanes gamowvevebs Soris, romlebic gansazRvraven Cvens samomavlo models, aris<br />

demografia. ruseTSi demografiuli problema ufro mwvaved dadgeba, vidre sxva qveynebSi.<br />

ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros monacemebiT, ekonomikaSi dasaqmebuli adamianebis<br />

100

---

da mTlianad mosaxleobis Seuqcevadi Semcireba 163 . aseT viTarebaSi Znelia<br />

velodoT ekonomikis grZelvadian, stabilur zrdas, miuxedavad imisa, rom<br />

sibereSeparuli mosaxleoebis cxovrebis donem qveyanaSi, romelic agrerig<br />

damokidebulia nedleulis eqsportze, SeiZleba droebiT aiwios kidec, Tuki<br />

SenarCundeba navTobis maRali fasi. eqspertebis SefasebiT, ekonomikis zrdis<br />

SedarebiT dabali tempi (2,5-4 procenti weliwadSi) da realuri Semosavlebis<br />

zrdis Seneleba an stagnacia yvelaze damajerebel inerciul scenarad<br />

gamoiyureba uaxloes wlebSi (nedleulis bazrebis sakmaod xelsayreli<br />

koniunqturis SemTxvevaSi) 164 . miuxedavad am garemoebisa, ruseTi apirebs<br />

gazardos xarjbi ara marto socialur sferoSi, aramed gegmavs uaxloes wlebSi<br />

jaris gadaiaraRebisTvis trilionobiT rubli gaiRos 165 .<br />

saqarTvelomac, Tavis mxriv, sakmaod mZimed gadaitana krizisi, rasac daemata<br />

ruseTTan omi, dangreuli ekonomika da am ekonomikis aRdgenis aucilebloba.<br />

2006-2007 wlebSi ekonomikis stabiluri zrdis Semdeg, 2008 wels ekonomikis<br />

zrdis tempi Senelda, xolo 2009 wels is gaxda uaryofiTi. miuxedavad did<br />

sirTuleebisa, pirvel rigSi, maRali inflaciisa da ucxouri investiciebis<br />

Semcirebisa, qveynis ekonomikam bolo dros kvlav daiwyo aRdgena. 2011 wlis<br />

TebervalSi saerTaSoriso savaluto fondma saqarTvelos ekonomikuri zrdis<br />

prognozi 2011 wlisaTvis 4,5%-dan 5,5%-mde aswia, xolo amasTan erTad<br />

ivarauda wliuri inflaciis (romelic dReisaTvis orniSnaa) 166 wlis bolomde 8<br />

procentamde Semcireba. garkveuli gaumjobeseba ZiriTadma sareitingo<br />

saagentoebmac iwinaswarmetyveles. magaliTad, Fitch Ratings-ma saqarTvelos<br />

valis grZelvadiani reitingis adrindeli maxasiaTebeli _ `stabiluri~ _<br />

Secvala `pozitiuriT~ da `B+~-is doneze damtkica; misi SeafasebiT, 2010 wels<br />

mSp 6,5 procentiT gaizrdeba, 2011 wels _ 5,0 procentiT, 2012 wels ki 6,0<br />

procentiT 167 . amasTan, mTavrobas aqvs valis momsaxurebis didi valdebuleba<br />

2012-2014 wlebSi, romelic 2013 wels maqsimums _ 1 miliard aSS dolarze mets<br />

_ miaRwevs (mSp-is daaxloebiT 8%) 168 .<br />

yovelive amasTan erTad, bolo wlebSi msoflioSi gaCnda axali safrTxeebi.<br />

pirvel rigSi esaa masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gavrcelebasTan<br />

dakavSirebuli riskebi, kerZod, CrdiloeT koreisa da iranis atomuri<br />

ricxvi 2011 wlis monacemiT _ 67,9 milionidan, 2020 wlisaTvis 64,6 milionamde Semcirdeba, anu<br />

ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa raodenoba yovelwliurad 300-400 aTasiT Semcirdeba~. 2011 wlis 18<br />

Tebervals krasnoiarskis VIII ekonomikur <strong>for</strong>umze a. l. kudrinis gamosvlis stenograma.<br />

http://www.minfin.ru/ru/press/transcripts/printable.php?id4=12090<br />

163<br />

erTma cnobilma demografma mxatvrulad aRwera es samwuxaro viTareba: `dRes aCrdili dadis<br />

ruseTSi, es ar aris aCrdili komunizmisa, romelic didi xania warsulis sxvenSia mijaWvuli,<br />

aramed es aris aCrdili uwyveti da, rogorc Cans, SeuCerebeli depopulaciisa~. Nicolas Eberstadt.<br />

Drunken Nation: Russia’s Depopulation Bomb. World Affairs, Spring 2009.<br />

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2009-Spring/full-Eberstadt.html<br />

164<br />

Кирилл Рогов. Гипотеза третьего цикла. Pro et Contra. Июль-октябрь 2010. gv. 11.<br />

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ProetContra_50_6-22.pdf<br />

165<br />

`ruseTi, 2020 wlamde SeiaraRebis programis farglebSi, SeiarRebaze 20 trilion rubls<br />

daxarjavs, acxadebs premier-ministri vladimer putini. daaxloebiT 5 trilioni daixarjeba<br />

qveynis samxedro-sazRvao flotis kompleqsur aRWurvaze, ganacxada mTavrobis meTaurma<br />

severodvinskSi orSabaTs, 2011-2020 wlebSi SeiaraRebis saxelmwifo proeqtis <strong>for</strong>mirebasTan<br />

dakavSirebul TaTbirze~. http://www.newsru.com/<strong>russia</strong>/13dec2010/strashno.html<br />

166<br />

http://civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=21765<br />

167<br />

http://www.interpressnews.ge/en/society/25892-fitch-revises-<strong>georgia</strong>s-outlook-from-stable-to-positive.html<br />

168<br />

IMF. Georgia— 2011 Article IV Consultation Mission Concluding Statement. February 22, 2011<br />

http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2011/022211.htm (2011 wlis gazafxulze moxda saxelmwifo valis<br />

didi nawilis restruqturizacia).<br />

101

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programebi. aranakleb saSiSia am qveynebis araprognozirebadi qmedebebi 169 .<br />

yovelive es ruseTisaTvis sakmaod saSiSia, radgan arastabilurobis SesaZlo<br />

kerebi uSualod mis sazRvrebTanaa. uaxloes perspeqtivaSi ki ruseTisTvis<br />

mTavari safrTxe aris dabali intensivobis omi avRaneTSi, romelic<br />

ukavSirdeba narkotikuli saSualebebis veeba raodenobiT warmoebasa da<br />

ruseTis bazarze mis orientirebas. Tuki usafrTxoebis saerTaSoriso Zalebi<br />

datoveben avRaneTis teritorias, ruseTi metad rTul mdgomareobaSi<br />

aRmoCndeba 170 .<br />

am procesebSi saqarTveloc aris CarTuli. jer erTi, qarTveli samxedroebi<br />

aqtiurad monawileoben saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis Zalebis<br />

operaciebSi avRaneTSi. meore, eqspertTa SefasebiT, saqarTvelo erT-erTi<br />

mniSvnelovani rgolia im satranzito gzisa, romliTac narkotikebi gadis<br />

evropaSi 171 . garda amisa, saqarTveloSi araerTxel daukavebiaT<br />

kontrab<strong>and</strong>istebi, romlebic cdilobdnen ruseTidan gamdidrebuli urა nis<br />

Semotanas. dabolos, CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi gabatonebuli arastabiluri<br />

viTareba da gavrcelebuli terorizmi, marTalia, pirvel rigSi, ruseTis<br />

problemaa, magram es sakiTxi ar SeiZleba ar aRelvebdes saqarTvelosac. aqve<br />

unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos SidaeTnikuri problemebi, igulisxmeba<br />

saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi azerbaijanlebisa da somxebis integraciasTan<br />

dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi, am bolo dros gacilebiT Serbilda da dReisaTvis<br />

saxelmwifos usafrTxoebas naklebad emuqreba.<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi ganviTarebuli procesebi (rac ukve gascda kidevac am<br />

regionis farglebs) did safrTxes warmaodgens ruseTisaTvis. am sakiTxTan<br />

dakavSirebiT SeSfoTebas ruseTis mravali oficialuri piri gamoTqvams 172 .<br />

ruseTis premier-ministrma vl. putinma CrdiloeT kavkasiis socialurekonomikuri<br />

ganviTarebis sakiTxebTan dakavSirebul samTavrobo komisiis<br />

sxdomaze gansakuTrebiT gausva xazi socialuri faqtorebis rols 173 da piroba<br />

dado, rom mxolod 2011 wels regionis ganviTarebisaTvis 400 miliardi rubli<br />

gamoiyofa. ianvarSi davosSi Sexvedraze ki ruseTis xelisuflebam warmoadgina<br />

daRestansa da adiReiSi saTxilamuro turizmis ganviTarebis gr<strong>and</strong>iozuli<br />

169 ix.: NATO Seizes Iranian Arms En Route to Afghan Taliban Forces. The Blaze/AP. March 9, 2011.<br />

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/nato-seizes-iranian-arms-en-route-to-afghan-taliban-<strong>for</strong>ces/<br />

170 rogorc ruseTis federaciis vice-premierma sergei ivanovma aRniSna miunxenSi, uSiSroebis<br />

saerTaSoriso samitze, 2011 wlis TebervalSi: `ruseTi dainteresebulia avRaneTi iyos<br />

stabiluri da mSvidobiani qveyana da Cven gvinda saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis<br />

Zalebis warmateba. iqidan usafrTxoebis saerTaSoriso ZalebSi Semavali SeiaraRebuli<br />

<strong>for</strong>mirebebis, maT Soris natos sajariso nawilebis, wasvlam Cven SeiZleba sruliad axali<br />

safrTxeebi Segviqmnas~. http://rian.ru/defense_safety/20110205/330744432.html<br />

171 ix.: “Heroin travelling the northern route originates in Afghanistan transits Iran <strong>and</strong> then goes through the Caspian<br />

Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia <strong>and</strong> Ukraine be<strong>for</strong>e reaching Romania <strong>and</strong> then the rest of Europe.” International Narcotics<br />

Control Strategy Report: Volume I, Drug <strong>and</strong> Chemical Control. US Department of State, Bureau <strong>for</strong> International<br />

Narcotics <strong>and</strong> Law En<strong>for</strong>cement Affairs. March 2011. gv. 158 www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2011/vol1/index.htm<br />

172 2011 wlis 25 oqtombers ruseTis generaluri prokuroris moadgilem ivan sidorikma acnoba<br />

federaciis sabWos uflebaTa sakiTxebze momuSave komitets, rom 2011 wels CrdiloeT kavkasiis<br />

teritoriaze teraqtebis Sedegad daiRupa 205 adamiani _ samarTaldamcavi organos<br />

TanamSromlebi da samxedro pirebi. mimdinare wels olqSi oTxjer aris gazrdili<br />

eqstremistuli xasiTis danaSaulebrivi qmedebebi~. www.newsru.com/<strong>russia</strong>/28oct2010/sidoryk.html<br />

173 `kidev erTxel gavimeoreb, rom Cvens winaSea CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi viTarebis kardinalurad<br />

Secvlis amocana, pirvel rigSi, saubari gavqvs adamianTa sicocxlis xarisxze, maTi<br />

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofaze, rom maT SeeZloT sakuTar miwaze mSvidobianad muSaoba. unda<br />

amovZirkvoT yvelaferi, rac asazrdoebs terorizmsa da eqstremizms, es ki, upirveles yovlisa,<br />

aris siRaribe da umuSevroba, ganaTlebis da codnis dabali done, korufcia, ukanonoba~.<br />

http://www.premier.gov.ru/events/news/13920/<br />

102

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gegmebi 174 . sinamdvileSi ki moskovi T<strong>and</strong>aTanobiT kargavs kavkasiis am regionis<br />

kontrolis sadaveebs da verc samxedro ZaliTa da verc finansuri ineqciebiT 175<br />

ver axerxebs mis SenarCunebas. CrdiloeT kavkasiis sxva avtonomiebis<br />

`kadirizaciis~ mcdelobam ki SesaZloa kidev ufro daakargvinos ruseTs am<br />

regionze kontroli _ aq xom TiTqmis aRarc darCa eTnikurad rusi mosaxleoba.<br />

amasTan, radikaluri islamizmis farTod gavrcelebis saSiSroeba ukve volgauralis<br />

regionsac emuqreba, kerZod, TaTarstansa da baSkortostans 176 .<br />

aRniSnuli procesebi xels uwyobs rusuli nacionalizmis zrdas, rasac<br />

SeiZleba mohyves Zaladobisa da arastabilurobis Seuqcevadi procesi. pirveli<br />

niSnebi imisa, rom xelisuflebis mier gaRvivebuli eTnikuri nacionalizmi<br />

SeiZleba male gamovides kontrolidan, iyo dekembris movlenebi moskovis<br />

maneJis moedanze, aseve _ ruseTis sxva qalaqebSic. eqstremistebis jgufebis<br />

moqmedebebis mizania kavkasiidan da centraluri aziidan Casuli migrantebis<br />

daSineba da mosaxleobasac maT mimarT Zaladobisaken ubiZgeben. amasTan, isini<br />

moqmedeben sakmaod xelsayrel sazogadoebriv atmosferoSi. `levada-centris~<br />

gamokiTxvis Tanaxmad, im xalxis wilobrivi maCvenebeli, romelic mxars uWers<br />

ideas `ruseTi rusebisaTvis~ 1998 wlis 43%-dan 2011 wels 57%-mde gaizarda.<br />

mxars vuWer, didi xania unda<br />

gakeTebuliyo<br />

cudi ar iqneboda amis gakeTeba,<br />

oRond zomierebis farglebSi<br />

ras fiqrobT ideis _ `ruseTi rusebisTvis~ _ Sesaxeb?<br />

1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

13 15 16 16 21 16 16 15 14 15 18 19 15<br />

30 34 42 38 32 37 37 35 41 42 36 35 43<br />

uaryofiTad, es namdvili faSizmia 30 27 20 26 18 25 23 26 27 25 32 21 24<br />

ar mainteresebs 14 12 11 9 7 12 12 12 11 12 9 16 13<br />

miWirs pasuxis gacema 7 6 5 3 8 4 5 4 7 7 5 9 5<br />

mxardamWerTa saerTo raodenoba 43 49 58 54 53 53 53 50 55 57 54 54 58<br />

wyaro: `levada-centri ~177<br />

174 `regionebis socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis gegmaSi aris mxolod kavkasiis yvela<br />

respublikaSi samTo-saTxilamuro kurortebis ganviTarebis masStaburi koncefcia. imis<br />

fonze, rac xdeba, anu Tuki miviCnevT, rom es idea gamiznulia turistebis mosazidad da<br />

swrafad mzardi mosaxleobisaTvis axali samuSao adgilebis Sesaqmnelad, is absurdulad<br />

gamoiyureba. magram, arsebuli viTarebis fonze, is ufro racionalurad warmogvidgeba, Tuki<br />

amaSi davinaxavT safasurs adgilobrivi elitis loialurobasa da regionis stabilurobaSi<br />

gadaxdil safasurs. amas daemateba samSeneblo kompleqsis ganviTarebac, ramac SeiZleba<br />

marTlac misces xalxs samuSao~. nikolai petrovi, Грани, 28.02.2011<br />

http://grani.ru/opinion/petrov/m.186617.html<br />

175 rogorc amas winaT daiCivla `radio Tavisuflebaze~ regionis erT-erTma gamoCenilma<br />

specialistma, aleqsei malasenkom: `vfiqrob, viTareba, samwuxarod, kidev ufro gamwvavdeba.<br />

pirvel rigSi, aseTad ver darCeba _ an gamokeTdeba, risi niSnebic ar Cans, an gaagrZelebs<br />

gauaresebas, rasac vxedavT. roca vfiqrob 2014 wlis olimpiur TamaSebze, provokatorobaSi nu<br />

CamomarTmevT, magram mgonia, rom olimpiadis faqtori _ es is faqtoria, romelsac SeuZlia am<br />

viTarebis kidev ufro gamwvaveba. RmerTma qnas, rom vcdebode~.<br />

http://www.svobodanews.ru/content/transcript/2195945.html<br />

176 gavixsenoT New Times-Si miliciis gadamdgari general-maioris vladimer ovCinskis<br />

gancxadeba: `yvelaferTan erTad Cveni volgispireTi iwvis. faqtobrivad yovel kviras gviwevs<br />

erTi teroristuli dajgufebis likvidacia baSkireTsa da TaTarstanSi, ubralod, masobrivi<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebi amaze ar weren...~ http://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/34785/<br />

177 Sedegebi gamokiTxvisa, romelic Caatara iuri levadas analitikurma centrma (e.w. `levadacentrma~)<br />

2011 wlis 21-24 ianvars; qveynis 45 regionis 130 dasaxlebuli punqtidan<br />

reprezentatiuli SerCeviT gamoikiTxa ruseTis 1600 moqalaqe, romelTa asaki iyo 18 wlidan<br />

zeviT. http://www.levada.ru/press/2011020407.html<br />

103

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aRsaniSnavia, rom eTnikur nacionalizmTan erTad Zlirdeba regionuli<br />

nacionalizmic. es ukanaskneli ruseTis Soreul regionebs upirispirebs<br />

centrs, romelic ganixileba adgilobrivi mosaxleobis koloniur mZarcvelad.<br />

ase, magaliTad, ruseTis mosaxleobis bolo aRweris dros cimbiris<br />

macxovrebelTa mniSvnelovanma nawilma erovnebis grafaSi Cawera<br />

`cimbireli~ 178 . am process damatebiT xels uwyobs e.w. subnacionaluri<br />

avtoritarizmis ganviTarebac 179 .<br />

erovnuli proeqtebi da interesebi<br />

mravali saukunis win lucius anius senekam enamwared ixumra Tavis drois<br />

xelmocarul strategosebze: `vinc ar icis, romel navsadgurisken uWiravs<br />

gezi, imisTvis zurgis qari ar arsebobs~. dResac asea, da ama Tu im strategiis<br />

warmatebis Sesafaseblad saWiroa vicodeT misi gamiznuloba. Sesabamisad,<br />

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobis perspeqtivis ukeT gasaazreblad<br />

mniSvnelovania ara marto am qveynebSi mimdinare politikuri procesebisa da<br />

Sesatyvisi geopolitikuri konteqstis gaTvaliswineba, aramed am qveynebis<br />

xelmZRvanelobis politikuri miznebis im rTul sistemaSi garkveva, romelic,<br />

rogorc wesi, iSveliebs erovnuli da saxelmwifo interesebis cnebebs, magram<br />

sinamdvileSi xSirad ireklavs wamyvani politikuri aqtorebis interesebsa da<br />

miznebs. am interesebis arsi, naTlad da erTmniSvnelovnad Camoyalibebuli,<br />

iSviaTad gvxvdeba. rodesac ki aseTi <strong>for</strong>mulireba mocemulia, ZiriTadad _<br />

sxvadasxva strategiul dokumentSi, igi Cveulebriv gamoxatavs an romeliRac<br />

konkretuli jgufis Sexedulebebs, an aqvs wmindad populisturi miznebi da<br />

ufro niRbavs, vidre avlens avtorTa WeSmarit RirebulebaTa sistemas.<br />

sazogadoebis demokratiuli mowyobis SemTxvevaSi gansxvavebuli warmodgenebi<br />

Rirebulebebis Sesaxeb erTmaneTs ejibreba da ase xdeba erovnuli interesebis<br />

Sesaxeb Zireul warmodgenebis Camoyalibeba. Cvens e.w. hibridul,<br />

posttotalitarul sazogadoebebSi ki amgvari konsensusis miRweva<br />

SeuZlebelia, radgan ar aris ganviTarebuli sazogadoebrivi diskursi Zireul<br />

RirebulebebTan dakavSirebiT. aseve cudad muSaobs im sxvadasxva erovnuli<br />

proeqtis konkurenciis demokratiuli meqanizmebi, romelTac warmoadgens esa<br />

Tu is politikuri elita. am elitebs, Tavis mxriv, ar gaaCniaT qmediTi<br />

ormxrivi komunikacia sazogadoebasTan.<br />

sxvadasxva politikuri Zalis moqmedebaSi (maT Soris _ qarTul-rusul<br />

urTierTobebSi) gasarkvevad metad mniSvnelovania erovnuli proeqtebis<br />

gaanalizeba da imis gageba, Tu rogor xedaven Sesabamisi politikuri elitebi<br />

mxareTa erovnul interesebs. aseve mniSvnelovania gaverkveT imaSi, Tu ra<br />

damokidebuleba aqvs erovnul proeqtebs realur praqtikasa Tu populistur<br />

ritorikasTan, <strong>and</strong>a RirebulebaTa sistemasa da sazogadoebaSi arsebul<br />

orientaciebTan. es ara mxolod TanamSromlobis SesaZleblobebisa da<br />

interesebis Sefasebis, aramed intresTa konfliqtis prognozirebisa da maTi<br />

Serbilebisa Tu mSvidobianad mogvarebis saSualebasac mogvcemda. aseve<br />

mniSvnelovania imis gagebac, nacionalisturi diskursi rogor SeeTavseba<br />

eTnikur mimteveblobas, politikur pluralizmsa da demokratiul<br />

Rirebulebebs, ra adgili aqvs kulturisa da enis ganviTarebis sakiTxebs,<br />

rogor gamoiyureba erovnuli proeqtebis instituciuri uzrunvelyofa.<br />

178<br />

Владимир Антипин. Гражданин Сибири. Русский Репортер. 22 февраля 2011, №07 (185)<br />

http://rusrep.ru/article/2011/02/22/sibir/<br />

179<br />

Владимир Гельман. Субнациональный авторитаризм в современной России. Полит.Ру, 23 сентября 2010.<br />

http://www.polit.ru/lectures/2010/11/17/avtoritarism.html<br />

104

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sinamdvileSi, hibridul sazogadoebebSi ganxorcielebuli politikur<br />

strategiebze gavlenas erTdroulad, sul mcire, RirebulebaTa oTxi<br />

sxvadasxva sistema axdens, romlebsac zogjer mxolod avtoritetis<br />

mosapoveblad ekrobaT erovnuli interesebis iarliyi.<br />

pirvel rigSi _ es aris erovnuli miznebisa da amocanebis idealizebuli<br />

koncefcia, romelic emyareba zogadsakacobrio faseulobebsa da adamianis<br />

uflebebis cnebas, Tanasworobas, demokratias, umciresobaTa pativiscemas,<br />

mdgrad ganviTarebas, pirad Tavisuflebasa da usafrTxoebas, adamianebis<br />

Rirsebas, keTildReobasa da bednierebas.<br />

meore _ es aris warmodgena im erovnuli amocanebisa da miznebis Sesaxeb,<br />

romlebic Camoyalibebulia damtkicebul oficialur da samarTlebriv<br />

dokumentebSi, erovnul strategiebsa da gegmebSi, da asaxulia politikuri<br />

liderebis gamosvlebSi. rogorc wesi, amgvari teqstebis siRrmiseul analizs<br />

SeuZlia gamoavlinos maTi populisturi xasiaTi, <strong>and</strong>a maTi mxolod simboluri<br />

imitaciuri mimarTeba zogadsakacobrio demokratiul da humanur<br />

RirebulebebTan. Cveulebriv, aseT dokumentebSi warmodgenil erovnul<br />

interesebs Caenacvleba saxelmwifo interesebi, sadac dominirebs saxelmwifo<br />

uSiSroebisa da stabilurobis, ekonomikuri interesebis, sazRvrebis<br />

urRvevobis, saerTaSoriso gavlenisa da pativiscemis, kontrolisa da<br />

sakuTrebis cnebebi.<br />

mesame _ es aris faseulobiTi orientaciis dominanturi sistema,<br />

gavrcelebuli rogorc qveynis mosaxleobaSi, ise saxelmwifo biurokratiis<br />

mniSvnelovan nawilSi. marTalia, igi sakmaod Zlierad ganicdis masobrivi<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis saSualebebis mier manipulaciaa da movlenaTa miTologizaciis,<br />

aseve politikuri elitis, religiuri liderebisa da sxva avtoritetebis<br />

populisturi lozungebis gavlenas, magram amavdroulad aris sakmaod<br />

konservatiuli da inerciuli, da xSirad ver guobs faseulobaTa sxva<br />

sistemebsa da umciresobebs. faseulobaTa es `saxalxo~ sistema, Sinaganad<br />

Cveulebriv aris winaaRmdegobebiT savse da araTanmimdevruli, Tumca swored<br />

mas iTvaliswineben da iyeneben politikosebi.<br />

dabolos, es aris mmarTveli elitis SedarebiT viwro wris jgufuri da piradi<br />

miznebis sistema, romelic cxadi saxiT iSviaTadaa Camoyalibebuli, Tumca<br />

gavlenas axdens qveynisaTvis praqtikuli mniSvnelobis da zogjer ki<br />

sabediswero, gadawyvetilebebis miRebaze. aq gvxvdeba rogorc piradi<br />

gamdidrebisa Tu Zalauflebis SenarCunebis wmindad egoisturi motivebi, ise<br />

yovelgvari iracionaluri fobia Tu ideosinkrazia, idealisturi<br />

warmodgenebi xalxisa Tu misi romelime nawilis keTildReobis, aseve _<br />

Rirsebisa da xalxis winaSe pasuxismgeblobis Sesaxeb. 180 gasagebia, rom aq ufro<br />

mkvlevaris varaudebisa da intuiciis adgili ufroa, radgan in<strong>for</strong>maciis<br />

sarwmuno wyaroebi an ar aris xelmisawvdomi, an saerTod ar arsebobs, <strong>and</strong>a<br />

xelmisawvdomi gaxdeba istorikosebisaTvis mxolod gacilebiT Soreul<br />

momavalSi, Tuki uecrad moxdeba in<strong>for</strong>maciis gaJonva, rogorc es moxda<br />

„vikiliqsis“ SemTxvevaSi.<br />

180 politikuri liderebis fsiqologiis zogierTi aspeqtisa da rolis Seasxeb ix.: Vamık D.<br />

Volkan, Some Psychoanalytic Views on Leaders with Narcissistic Personality Organization <strong>and</strong> their Roles in Largegroup<br />

Processes. In: (Eds.), R.H. Klein, Köşkdere., C.A. Rice, <strong>and</strong> V.L. Schermer. 2009. Leadership in a Changing<br />

World: Dynamic Perspectives on Groups <strong>and</strong> Their Leaders. New York: Lexington. 67-89.<br />

http://www.vamikvolkan.com/Some-Psychoanalytic-Views-On-Narcissistic-Leaders-<strong>and</strong>-Their-Roles-in-Large-group-<br />

Processes.php<br />

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Tavdapirvelad SevecdebiT CamovayaliboT qarTuli elitis warmodgenebi<br />

erovnuli interesebis Taobaze. es warmodgenebi ar gvixatavs erT mTlian<br />

suraTs da zemoT warmodgenili sqemis msgavsad danawevrebulia klasterebad:<br />

a) erovnuli interesebi, romelTa propag<strong>and</strong>ac mimdinareobs mosaxleobisaTvis<br />

da romlebic apelireben mosaxleobaSi (xSirad imave propag<strong>and</strong>is meSveobiT)<br />

gavrcelebuli warmodgenebis mimarT (saxelmwifo mSenebloba da teritoriuli<br />

erTianoba uzenaesi prioritetebia; saqarTvelo warmatebuli demokratiaa;<br />

yvela ubedureba ruseTidan modis; saqarTvelo evropuli qveyanaa,<br />

saqarTvelos momavalic evropaSia; ruseTidan Tavis dacvis erTaderTi<br />

garantia natoSi integracia aris; aSS mTavari imedia; marTlmadidebloba _<br />

qarTuli identobis safuZveli 181 ; saqarTvelos aqvs SesaniSnavi ekonomikuri<br />

perspeqtivebi da miRwevebi...); b) elitis nawilis amgvarive warmodgenebi,<br />

Sevsebuli sakuTari mniSvnelobis gancdiT (xalxi umwifaria da amitom<br />

re<strong>for</strong>mebis gatareba unda moxdes swrafad da radikalurad; saxelisuflebo<br />

elita saukeTesoa, dRev<strong>and</strong>eli realobidan gamomdinare; eTnikuri<br />

umciresobebis ndoba SeuZlebelia; opozicia mtrebis sasargeblod moqmedebs;<br />

samxedro aRmSenebloba saxelmwifoebriobis safuZvelia; miamitma dasavleTma<br />

mxolod fuli mogvces da ra unda gavakeToT, Cven Tavadac viciT. saWiroa<br />

ekonomikis maqsimalurad liberalizacia, magram Tan yvelaferi unda<br />

eqvemdebarebodes saxelmwifos mxridan uCinar kontrols; eleqtornuli<br />

mediis kontroli aris Sinagani stabilurobis garantia... g) elitis zeda<br />

eSelonis savaraudo warmodgenebi da miznebi ki iSviaTad mzeurdeba<br />

(Zalauflebis SenarCuneba nebismier fasad; dasavleTs Cven unda vegonoT<br />

demokratebi; qveynis SigniT mowinaaRmdegeebs Cveni unda eSinodeT da pativs<br />

gvcemdnen; piradi erTguleba yvelaze mniSvnelovania; kanoni Cven ar gvexeba;<br />

xalxi umwifaria, Sesabamisad, misi manipulireba SesaZlebelicaa da saWiroc;<br />

mtrebi unda davsajoT da davamciroT...).<br />

saqarTvelom bolo ori aTwleulis manZilze mravali dartyma da ubedureba<br />

gadaitana, ris Sedegadac mosaxleobis koleqtiur cnobierebaSi sxvadasxva<br />

fena Camoyalibda, rac SeiZleba aRiweros, rogorc nazavi e.w. `postkoloniuri<br />

sindromisa~ da iracionaluri ganwyobebisa, romelTac vamik volkanma,<br />

fsiqoanalitikuri terminologiis farglebSi, `jgufuri regresia~ uwoda. 182<br />

sociologiuri gamokiTxvebis Sedegebi aCvenebs mosaxleobis arsebuli<br />

mdgomareobiT gamowveul SeSfoTebas, gansakuTrebiT, ruseTTan rTuli<br />

urTierTobis, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis dakargvis gamo, miuxedavad imisa,<br />

rom maTgan bevri SeiZleba arc afxazeTSi da arc samxreT oseTSi namyofic ki ar<br />

iyos. sayovelTaod cnobilia, Tu ramdenad didi simboluri datvirTva aqvs<br />

181 `marTlmadidebloba, evropis erT-erTi tradiciuli aRmsarebloba, istoriulad iyo<br />

saqarTveloSi saxelmwifo religia, romelmac Camoayaliba mravalsaukunovani qarTuli<br />

kultura, erovnuli msoflmxedveloba da Rirebulebebi; saqarTvelos mosaxleobis udidesi<br />

nawili aris marTlmadidebeli qristiani; saqarTvelos konstitucia aRiarebs saqarTvelos<br />

samociqulo marTlmadidebeli avtokefaliuri eklesiis gansakuTrebul rols qveynis<br />

istoriaSi da mis saxelmwifosgan damoukideblobas~. Конституционное соглашение между<br />

Государством Грузия и Автокефальной Православной Апостольской Церковью Грузии. 1 декабря 2002 г.<br />

http://www.pravoslavie.ru/orthodoxchurches/40230.htm<br />

182 `[nacionaluri da eTnikuri konfliqtebi] SeuZlebelia gavigoT, Tuki yuradRebas mxolod<br />

materialur aspeqtebze gavamaxvilebT, anu _ ekonomikur, samxedro, samarTlebriv da<br />

politikur faqtorebze. sinamdvileSi ki `realuri samyaros~ problemebi ukiduresad<br />

fsiqologizirebulia _ da maTze SeiZleba moqmedebdes specifikuri aRqma, azrebi, fantaziebi<br />

da emociebi (rogorc cnobieri, ise qvecnobieri), romlebic an istoriuli didebis gardasul<br />

simaRleebs gvaxsenebs, an ukavSirdeba Zveli travmebis, danakargebis, damcirebebisa da Rrma<br />

mwuxarebis xsovnas, aseve SurisZiebis uflebis rwmenasa da Secvlili sinamdvilis<br />

miuReblobas~. Vamık D. Volkan. Bloodlines: From Ethnic Pride to Ethnic Terrorism. New York: Farrar, Straus<br />

<strong>and</strong> Giroux. 1997. 117<br />

106

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ukebsa da sazRvrebs, da ra mwvaved reagireben adamianebi nebismieri saxiT<br />

xelyofas maTi qveynis teritoriisa, rac erovnuli funqcionirebis<br />

umniSvnelovanes elementad aRiqmeba. tyuilad ar aris popularuli ilia<br />

WavWavaZis mier Camoyalibebuli patriotuli lozungi _ `mamuli, ena,<br />

sarwmunoeba~. am tradiciul sameulSi xom swored mamuli _ erovnuli<br />

teritoria _ dgas pirvel adgilas, rac, Sesabamisad, gulisxmobs saxelmwifos<br />

usafrTxoebas da damoukideblobas. ramdenadac saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT<br />

arc enas da arc sarwmunoebas emuqreba safrTxe, amdenad RirebulebaTa<br />

`xalxur~ sistemaSi meore umTavresi elementi aris ekonomikuri keTildReoba.<br />

zemoT naTqvamis Sesabamisad ganisazRvreba mosaxleobis sagareo politikis<br />

orientaciac _ dasavleTi da nato asocirdeba usafrTxoebasTan,<br />

teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis imedsa da ekonomikur ayvavebasTan, xolo<br />

ruseTi _ damoukideblobisa da saxelmwifoebriobis mimarT muqarasTan.<br />

swored amitom ar aqvT prorusulad ganwyobil politikur Zalebs masobrivi<br />

mxaradWera xalxSi, da swored amitomac politikuri dajgufebebis umetesoba<br />

erTxmad acxadebs erTgulebas dasavluri Rirebulebebisa da<br />

evroatlantikuri integraciis miznebis mimarT.<br />

erovnuli interesebis oficialuri koncefcia mTlianad Seesatyviseba amgvar<br />

warmodgenebs, anu rom qveynis usafrTxoebisaTvis mTavari saSiSroeba aris<br />

ruseTis mxridan samxedro moqmedebebis ganaxleba da ruseTis samxedro bazebis<br />

arseboba saqarTvelos okupirebul teritoriebze. amasTan, mTavroba emxroba<br />

im azrs, rom ruseTis SemoWra saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis agvistoSi miznad<br />

isaxavda arsebuli xelisuflebis 183 Secvlas da, amdenad, es mizani jer kidev ar<br />

aris miRweuli. umniSvnelovanes erovnul amocanad gamocxadebulia samxreT<br />

oseTisa da afxazeTis saqarTvelos xelisuflebis kontrolqveS dabruneba,<br />

xolo sagareo politikis umniSvnelovanes amocanad _ evroatlantikuri<br />

integracia. erovnuli koncefciis sxva mniSvnelovan elementebad gvevlineba<br />

saxelmwifo institutebis gaZliereba, pirvel rigSi, erovnul doneze, aseve<br />

daCqarebuli ekonomikuri re<strong>for</strong>mebi, ramac unda ganapirobos qveynis ayvaveba<br />

da yvela socialuri problemis mogvareba. misabaZ magaliTebad ki xan Sveicaria<br />

saxeldeba, xan _ singapuri, xan kidev _ romelime sxva qveyana, romelic ki<br />

mogzaurobisas moewoneba qveynis pirvel pirs.<br />

rac Seexeba mmarTveli elitis faseulobebs, eseni sakmaod dafarulia gareSe<br />

Tvalisagan da ZiriTadad vlindeba konkretuli politikuri qmedebebiT, rac<br />

xSirad ewinaaRmdegeba gancxadebul amocanebs. es ki am qmedebebis<br />

araTanmimdevrul, xSirad moufiqrebel da araefeqtiur xasiaTs ganapirobebs.<br />

ase, magaliTad, demokratiuli Tavisuflebebisa da faseulobebis aRiarebis<br />

Sesaxeb gancxadebebi ver aris TanxmobaSi eleqtronuli masobrivi<br />

sain<strong>for</strong>macio saSualebebis monopolizaciasTan an viTarebasTan,<br />

rocaAAmniSvnelovani<br />

politikuri gadawyvetilebebis miRebisas ar aqvs adgili<br />

dialogs mosaxleobasa da opoziciasTan, xolo qveyanaSi warmarTuli saarCevno<br />

183 am TvalsazrisiT interess iwvevs saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefciis<br />

proeqtis Savi varianti. `radio Tavisuflebis~ Jurnalistis saparlamento opoziciis<br />

warmomadgenelTan interviudan: `qeTi boWoriSvili: iq nomer pirvel safrTxed, politikuri,<br />

ekonomikuri socialuri destabilizaciis faqtorad, pirdapiraa dasaxelebuli ruseTi... iq<br />

gasagebadaa naTqvami, rom samxedro agresiis mizani iyo ara okupacia an marionetuli reJimebis<br />

saerTaSoriso aRiareba, aramed saqarTvelos prodasavluri xelisuflebis Secvla. giorgi<br />

TavdgiriZe: me ar geTanxmebiT, radgan vfiqrob, rom rusulma mxarem moaxdina im teritoriebis<br />

okupacia, romelTa SenarCunebac SeeZlo da sWirdeboda sakuTari miznebis<br />

gansaxorcieleblad. vfiqrob, rom roca laparakia safrTxeze, saWiroa ufro zustad vicodeT,<br />

ra miznebi aqvs ruseTs _ es aris mxolod xelisuflebis Secvla, risi miRwevac sxva gzebiTa da<br />

naklebi fuliTacaa SesaZlebeli, Tu ruseTs unda, rom hqondes berketebi, romliTac mudmivad<br />

eqneba gavlena saqarTvelos politikur elitaze?~<br />

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kampaniebis dros vlindeba darRvevebi, roca sustdeba adgilobrivi<br />

mmarTveloba da sasamarTlo xelisufleba. erTi mxriv, gancxadebulia<br />

ekonomikuri liberalizacia da deregulacia, magram amis gverdiT sustia<br />

sakuTrebis uflebis daculoba, xSiria Sesabamisi uflebebis darRvevebi da<br />

farTod gamoiyeneba biznesze ara<strong>for</strong>maluri zewolis meqanizmebi 184 .<br />

gamocxadebuli swrafva evropuli integraciisaken aSkarad SeuTavsebelia Warb<br />

deregulaciasa da mimdinare kanonSemoqmedebasTan, romelic saqarTvelos<br />

samarTlebriv sistemas aSorebs evrokavSiris st<strong>and</strong>artebs (risi magaliTia<br />

Tundac evropuli st<strong>and</strong>artebisgan mkveTrad daSorebuli Sromis kodeqsis<br />

miReba, rac dReisaTvis kvlav gadaxedvis procesSia). Sedegad rCeba<br />

STabeWdileba, rom mmarTveli elitis viwro wre pirvel rigSi zrunavs<br />

sakuTari Zalauflebis SenarCunebaze, xolo mis mraval gadawyvetilebas<br />

ganapirobebs SemTxveviTi da iracionaluri faqtorebi.<br />

zemoT Camoyalibebuli mmarTveli elitis erovnuli interesebis garda, ra Tqma<br />

unda, aseve arsebobs pozicia, romelsac SeiZleba vuwodoT liberalurdemokratiuli<br />

da romelsac iziarebs naklebgavleniani pirebis SedarebiT<br />

SezRuduli wre (es aris zogadsakacobrio da demokratiuli Rirebulebebis,<br />

adamianis uflebebis prioritetuloba; dasavlur civilizaciasa da politikur<br />

sazogadoebaSi integracia; kanonis uzenaesoba...), Tumca ritorikis doneze<br />

yvela politikuri elita acxadebs amgvar faseulobebis mimarT erTgulebas.<br />

axla vcadoT CamovayaliboT, Tu rogor warmoudgenia erovnuli interesebi<br />

ruseTis elitas. es gacilebiT ufro rTuli warmodgenebic ver gamoirCeva<br />

Sinagani TanxmobiTa da erTianobiT, da aseve klasterebad nawevrdeba:<br />

a) erovnuli interesebi, rogorc miewodeba mosaxleobas da romelic emyareba<br />

xalxSi (nawilobriv igive propag<strong>and</strong>is mier Camoyalibebul) gavrcelebul<br />

warmodgenebs (ruseTi aris supersaxelmwifo; ar davTmobT arc erTi gojs<br />

ruseTis miwisa; ssrk-is daSla aris tragedia; ruseTi muxlebidan dgeba;<br />

`ruseTs hyavs mxolod ori mokavSire _ armia da floti~ (mefe aleqs<strong>and</strong>re III-is<br />

TqmiT); rusaTs aqvs ganviTarebis gansakuTrebuli gza; ruseTi kvebavda yvela<br />

respublikas, isini ki umaduri moRalateebi aRmoCndnen; mravalpolusian<br />

samyaroSi ruseTi kvlav msoflio masStabis moTamaSea; ruseTis saxelmwifo da<br />

misi sidiade upirveles yovlisa 185 ; aSS aris mTavari mteri 186 ; natoc mteria 187 ;<br />

184 aRsaniSnavia, rom msoflio bankis egidiT axlaxan Catarebuli gamokvlevis Tanaxmad,<br />

saqarTvelo da ruseTi pirvel oceulSi arian Crdilovani ekonomikis wilis TvalsazrisiT. ix.:<br />

Friedrich Schneider, Andreas Buehn, Claudio E. Montenegro. Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates<br />

<strong>for</strong> 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007. World Bank Discussion Paper (Revised Version) October 20, 2010.<br />

http://www.econ.jku.at/members/Schneider/files/publications/LatestResearch2010/ShadEcWorld10_2010.pdf<br />

185 `aRorZinebis gzazea WeSmaritad rusuli idealebi, suliereba, istoriuli mexsierebisadmi<br />

Rirseuli damokidebuleba. Zlierdeba sazogadoebrivi Tanxmoba saerTo faseulobebis<br />

safuZvelze, rac aris _ ruseTis saxelmwifos Tavisufleba da damoukidebloba, humanizmi,<br />

erTa Soris mSvidoba da ruseTis federaciis mravalerovani xalxis kulturaTa erToba,<br />

ojaxuri tradiciebis pativiscema da patriotizmi. mTlianobaSi, Camoyalibebulia<br />

winapirobebi, rom moxdes erovnuli uSiSroebis sagareo da saSinao safrTxeebis aRkveTisa da<br />

ruseTis federaciis dinamikuri ganviTareba, ise rom iqces erT-erT wamyvan saxelmwifod -<br />

teqnikuri progresis donis, mosaxleobis cxovrebis xarisxisa da msoflio procesebze<br />

zegavlenis mixedviT. ruseTis federaciis erovnuli uSiSroebis strategia 2020 wlamde,<br />

damtkicebuli ruseTis federaciis prezidentis 2009 wlis 12 maisis № 537 brZanebulebiT<br />

http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/99.html<br />

186 `ruseTis politikuri elita mainc miiCnevs, rom miuxedavad erayisa da avRaneTisa,<br />

miuxedavad terorizmisa da iranisa, miuxedavad [birTvuli iaraRis] gauvrceleblobisa Tu<br />

gavrcelebisa, miuxevad yvelafrisa, rac ar unda iTqvas amerikis sagareo politikis Sesaxeb,<br />

imaze, Tu saiT miemarTeba igi, amerikisaTvis uwindeburad mTavaria rac SeiZleba ufro<br />

108

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qveynis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli xelmZRvaneloba aris yvela problemis warmatebulad<br />

daZlevis garantia; marTlmadidebloba aris ruseTis saxelmwifoebriobis<br />

safuZveli; sazRvargareT rusebis/rusulenovani mosaxleobis dacva<br />

yvelanairi gziT unda moxdes).<br />

b) amgvar xedvasTan axlos dgas saxelmwifo moxeleebis — e.w.<br />

`gosudarstvenikebis~ warmodgenebi, Tumca aq arsebobs damatebiTi momentebic<br />

(xalxi umwifaria da ar SeiZleba misTvis didi uflebis miniWeba; ruseTis<br />

sidiadis misaRwevad yvela saSualeba gamodgeba; `sabWoTa kavSiris daSla iyo<br />

saukunis udidesi geopolitikuri katastrofa~ (vladimer putini)...) Sesabamisi<br />

sagareo politikuri xedva kargad gamoxata dimitri treninma:<br />

`me vgulisxmob sagareo politikis koncefcias, erovnuli uSiSroebis<br />

koncefciasa da sxva saxelmZRvanelo dokumentebs. Cemi azriT, iq arcTu<br />

garkveviTaa Camoyalibebuli, Tu ra miznebisken miiltvis ruseTis sagareo<br />

politika. Cems warmodgenaSi es daaxloebiT asea: Tanamedrove ruseTi cdilobs<br />

iqces Zalis erT-erT centrad mravalpolusian msoflioSi. es ki niSnavs, rom<br />

igi cdilobs Tavisi gavlena gaavrcelos, upirveles yovlisa, yofili sabWoTa<br />

kavSiris qveynebze. maTgan Seqmnas Taviseburi bloki, sadac ruseTis<br />

ineteresebs privilegirebuli mniSvneloba mieniWeba. amaze, `axlo<br />

samezobloSi~ interesebis privilegirebul xasiaTze, rogorc gaxsovT,<br />

laparakobda perzidenti medvedevi, amaze laparakoben sxva rusi oficialuri<br />

pirebic. meore momenti, mniSvnelovani ruseTis mmarTveli fenisTvis, maTTvis,<br />

vinc gansazRvravs ruseTis sagareo politikas, aris Zalis wamyvan centrebTan<br />

Tanabari statusis uzrunvelyofa. anu Cven varT centri _ esaa pirveli<br />

pozicia. meore pozicia _ rom Cven Tanabaruflebiani centri varT. anu<br />

saerTaSoriso sistemaSi Cven statusiTa da mdgomareobiT Tanatoli varT aSSis,<br />

CineTisa da evrokavSiris. ZalTa ZiriTadi centrebi plus Cven _ ai<br />

mravalpolaruli msoflio. xolo mesame pozicia ki momdinareobs meoredan da<br />

daaxloebiT ase JRers: kacobriobisaTvis mniSvnelovani sakiTxebis<br />

gadawyvetisas ruseTs aqvs ufleba gadamwyveti xma hqondes... ra Tqma unda,<br />

ruseTis sagareo politika ar iyenebs cnebas `gavlenis zona~, romelic dRes<br />

odiozuria da gvaxsenebs XIX saukunesa Tu XX saukunis dasawyiss. Tumca,<br />

seriozulad Tu vilaparakebT, swored amisken swrafva iCens Tavs~ 188 .<br />

g) superelitis warmodgenebi arc originaluria da sakmaod cinikuricaa, Tan<br />

iSviaTad xdeba maTi Riad Camoyalibeba. yovelive amis gamo maT, albaT, arc<br />

daamciros ruseTi da Tu ki esec gamouva, daanawevros igi da sakuTar nebas daumorCilos~.<br />

Дмитрий Тренин, Россия и Новая Европа. Полит.Ру, 16 марта 2011 г.<br />

www.polit.ru/lectures/2010/04/22/trenin.html. erovnuli uSiSroebis strategiaSi SemTxveviT ar aris<br />

naxsenebi, rom: `30. samxedro uSiSroebis safrTxeebia: zogierTi ucxo qveynis politika,<br />

mimarTuli samxedro sferoSi upiratesobis mopovebaze, pirvel rigSi ki _ strategiul<br />

birTvuli Zalebis ganviTarebiT, maRali sizustis, sain<strong>for</strong>macio da sxva maRalteqnologiuri<br />

saomari saSualebebis, arabirTvuli strategiuli SeiaraRebis, raketsawinaaRmdego Tavdacvis<br />

globaluri sistemis calmxrivad Camoyalibebisa da dedamiwis garSemo kosmosuri sivrcis<br />

militarizaciis gziT, ramac SesaZloa SeiaraRebis sferoSi axal Sejibramde migviyvanos...~<br />

187 `8. ZiriTadi samxedro safrTxeebia: a) natos Zalismieri potencialisaTvis globaluri<br />

funqciebis miniWebis mcdeloba, risi realizacia moxdeba saerTaSoriso samarTlis darRvevis<br />

gziT, aseve _ natos wevri qveynebis samxedro infarstruqturis ruseTis federaciis<br />

sazRvarTan miaxloebis mcdeloba, maT Soris, blokis gafarToebis gziTac;...~ ruseTis<br />

federaciis samxedro doqtrina, 2010 wlis 5 Tebervali, damtkicebuli ruseTis federaciis<br />

prezidentis mier. http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461<br />

188 Дмитрий Тренин. Модернизация внешней политики России. Полит.Ру, 4 марта 2010.<br />

http://www.polit.ru/lectures/2010/03/25/trenin_print.html<br />

109

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SeiZleba `erovnuli interesebi~ 189 ewodos (absoluturi Zalauflebis<br />

nebismier fasad SenarCuneba; ruseTsa da dasavleTSi — sabanko angariSebi da<br />

vilebi; vinc CvenTan araa, is Cven winaaRmdegaa; ruseTi _ es me/Cven varT; Cveni<br />

unda eSinodeT da pativs unda gvcemdnen; yvelaze mniSvnelovani piradi<br />

erTgulebaa; arsebuli kanonebi Cven ar gvexeba; xalxi sulelia da es unda<br />

gamoviyenoT; mtrebi unda davsajoT, davamciroT da gavanadguroT...).<br />

amgvarivea ekonomikuri elitis didi nawilis mosazrebebic da aqac<br />

warmmarTvelia piradi da jgufuri interesebi.<br />

zog sferoSi, TviT gancxadebul miznebSic ki Cans Sinagani winaaRmdegobrioba.<br />

rogorc, magaliTad, aRwers dimitri furmani imperiuli miswrafebebi (arc<br />

erTi goji rusuli miwisa), ewinaaRmdegeba eTnikur nacionalizms (moskovi _<br />

moskovelebs, ruseTi _ rusebs) 190 . miuxedavad saxelmwifo sistemis Zlieri<br />

centralizaciisa, ruseTSi ar arsebobs konsensusi Sida da sagareo politikis<br />

miznebisa da xasiaTis Taobaze 191 , xolo misi `marketizacia~ aferxebs sxvadasxva<br />

Sida aqtoris interesebis harmonizacias 192 .<br />

saxelisuflebo elitebis erovnuli interesebis zemoT CamoTvlili<br />

<strong>for</strong>mulirebebis garda, aseve arsebobs pozicia, romelic SeiZleba<br />

davaxasiaToT, rogorc liberalur-demokratiuli da romelsac arc ise bevri<br />

adamiani iziarebs (zogadsakacobrio da demokratiul faseulobaTa, adamianis<br />

uflebaTa prioritetuloba, dasavlur civilizaciasa da politikur<br />

sazogadoebaSi integracia; kanonis uzenaesoba...). simptomaturia `Независимая<br />

Газета~-s mTavari redaqtoris konstantin remCukovis axlaxan gakeTebuli<br />

gancxadeba `Эхо Москвы~-s eTerSi: `Cven gvesaWiroeba normaluri ruseTi, me ar<br />

mWirdeba diadi ruseTi... viRacas ki sWirdeba muxlebidan fexze wamodgoma...~ 193<br />

amgvari liberaluri warmodgenebis paralelurad arsebobs sul ufro<br />

popularuli nacionalisturi ganwyobac, faqtobrivad `b~-poziciis<br />

eqstremaluri varianti (ruseTi _ rusebs; umciresobebma unda icodnen Tavisi<br />

adgili; mTavari prioriteti aris ruseTis didebis aRorZineba; ruseTs aqvs<br />

Tavisi faseulobebi, gansxvavebuli dasavlurisagan, da saWiroa maTi<br />

SenarCuneba da dacva; dasavleTi mteria, magram mteria aRmosavleTic...)<br />

sainteresoa, rom miuxedavad qveynebis araTanazomieri masStabebisa da<br />

principul gansxvavebaTa simravlisa, bevri saerTo moiZebneba Sesabamis<br />

erovnul proeqtebsa da interesTa klasterebis <strong>for</strong>mulirebebSi (Tundac,<br />

rogorc isini avtoris interpretaciaSia gadmocemuli). es, erTi mxriv,<br />

189 Sdr. kremlTan daaxloebuli cnobili politteqnologis, gleb pavlovskis, mosazreba:<br />

`bolo 20 welia mSvidoba maRal eSelonebSi imis xarjzea SenarCunebuli, rom ar aris miRebuli<br />

imaze laparaki, Tu vin da rogor iyenebs samsaxureobriv mdgomareobas. elitaSi sufTa aravinaa,<br />

xolo meore eSelonis warmomadgenlebs kidev meti undaT...~ gazeTi «Коммерсантъ» № 216 (4271),<br />

19.11.2009 http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1277040, aseve ix.: Ольга Крыштановская. Российская<br />

элита на переходе. Полит.Ру, 29 мая 2008. (http://www.polit.ru/lectures/2008/07/31/rus_elita_print.html)<br />

190 Дмитрий Фурман. От Российской империи к русскому демократическому государству. Неприкосновенный<br />

запас № 73 (5/2010) — М.: Новое литературное обозрение, 2010. http://www.nlobooks.ru/rus/nzonline/619/2051/2054/<br />

191 magaliTad, ekonomikur politikasTan dakavSirebiT es cota xnis win finansTa ministrma<br />

Camoayaliba: `saqmiani klimatis Sesaxeb РСПП—is 2010 wlis gamokiTxvidan Cans, rogor icvleba<br />

mewarmeTa xedva imisa, Tu ra uSliT maT xels yvelaze metad. pirvel adgilze aris araefeqturi<br />

saxelmwifo marTva da qveynis ganviTarebis naTeli miznebis arqona~. a.l. kudrinis<br />

krasnoiarskis VIII ekonomikur <strong>for</strong>umze gamosvlis stenograma, 2011 wlis Tebervali.<br />

http://www.minfin.ru/ru/press/transcripts/printable.php?id4=12090<br />

192 Аркадий Мошес. Россия и новая «промежуточная» Европа. Pro et Contra. Июль-октябрь 2010. gv. 128.<br />

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ProetContra_50_6-22.pdf<br />

193 http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/743973-echo/<br />

110

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ukavSirdeba saerTo sabWour fesvebsa da elitebis erTnair politikur<br />

kulturas, xolo sxva mxriv _ maTi moqmedebis bevr rameSi msgavs socialur,<br />

ekonomikur da politikur garemos (magaliTad, saSualo klasis arqona,<br />

Tavisebureba an sisuste, ganuviTarebuli demokratiuli institutebi,<br />

modernizaciis aucilebloba da a.S.).<br />

ZiriTadi problemebi da perspeqtivebi<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTis mTavrobaTa Soris mraval sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT<br />

principulad Seurigebeli poziciebi arsebobs. gansakuTrebiT es exeba<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis samarTlebriv statuss da iq arsebul samxedro<br />

bazebs, aseve am ori qveynis liderebs Soris arsebul daufarav pirad<br />

SeuTavseblobas. Sesabamisad, uaxloes momavalSi mxareTa Soris urTierTobis<br />

radikalur gaumjobesebas ar unda velodoT. ar arsebobs diplomatiuri<br />

urTierToba qveynebs Soris. dRes saxelmwifoTa Soris pirdapiri urTierTobis<br />

erTaderTi <strong>for</strong>mati aris Jenevis naklebad Sedegiani molaparakebaTa procesi,<br />

Tu ar CavTvliT konkretul sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT Catarebul calkeul<br />

Sexvedrebs, aseTia, magaliTad, bernis martis Sexvedra, sadac ganixiles is<br />

pirobebi, romelTa Sesrulebasac saqarTvelo moiTxovs ruseTisgan, am<br />

ukanasknelis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesasvlelad. ruseTi da<br />

saqarTvelo uSualo mezoblebi arian da maT Soris mravali mougvarebeli<br />

problema arsebobs. mxareebs Soris dialogis uqonloba aRrmavebs maT<br />

urTierTundoblobas da aZlierebs erTmaneTSi mtris xatis danaxvis tendencias.<br />

ruseTis xelmZRvanelobasa da sxvadasxva politikur moRvawes araerTxel<br />

gamouTqvams ukmayofileba saqarTvelos moqmedebebis gamo da, Tu gamovricxavT<br />

yovlad fantastikur braldebebs 194 , saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobis mimarT<br />

pretenziebi SesaZloa Semdegnairad davajamoT: saqarTvelos xelisufleba da<br />

xalxi mkveTrad antirusuladaa ganwyobili; saqarTvelo axorcielebs<br />

antirusul politikas da xels uwyobs regionSi dasavluri (amerikuli)<br />

politikis gatarebas, rac zians ayenebs ruseTis interesebs; saqarTvelo<br />

TanaugrZnobs da mxars uWers Crdilokavkasiur elitaTa secesionistur da<br />

antirusul miswrafebebs da amiT safrTxes uqmnis ruseTis usafrTxoebasa da<br />

mTlianobas (igulisxmeba, magaliTad, CerqezTa genocidis sakiTxis gadaxedva,<br />

CrdilokavkasielebisTvis uvizo reJimis calmxrivad gamocxadeba...); aseve<br />

cdilobs xeli SeuSalos ruseTisaTvis mniSvnelovani proeqtebis<br />

ganxorcielebas (rogorebicaa, magaliTad, soWSi zamTris olimpiuri TamaSebis<br />

Catareba, kaspiis energoresursebis dasavleTSi transportirebis<br />

monopolizebis mcdeloba, msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesvla); cdilobs<br />

natoSi da evrokavSirSi Sesvlas, riTac asustebs ruseTis gavlenas mis samxreTdasavleT<br />

periferiaSi; safrTxes uqmnis samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis<br />

194 magaliTad, 2011 wlis 1 marts `rosiiskaia gazetasTvis~ micemul interviuSi domodedovos<br />

teraqtSi saqarTvelo daadanaSaula ruseTis federaciis sabWos pirvelma vice-spikerma,<br />

erovnuli antiteroristuli komitetis wevrma, aleqs<strong>and</strong>r torSinma. (torSini: imitom, rom,<br />

gavimeoreb, saidanac daviwye interviu, arsebobs gageba imisa, Tu saiT mivyavarT kvals, da imis<br />

gagebac, rom dRes terorizmis struqtura Secvlilia. me saerTod ar mesmis, saidan gamoZvra<br />

umarovi, amdeni xnis dumilis Semdeg. am teraqtTan raime Sexeba romc hqonoda, mxolod im<br />

TvalsazrisiT, rom mis xelSi gaivlida teraqtis damkveTebis fuli. mas SeiZleba hqonoda ara<br />

umetes Suamavlis roli da esec ki saeWvoa. darwmunebuli var, teraqti sazRvargareTidan iyo<br />

organizebuli. korespondenti: SegiZliaT gviTxraT, Tu romeli qveynidan da vis mier? torSini:<br />

getyviT, Tumca vxvdebi, rom Cemma sityvebma SeiZleba gamoiwvion viRacebis ganrisxeba da<br />

gaugebroba,Cemi azriT, es iyo saqarTvelo da misi mmarTveli reJimi.) "Российская газета",<br />

Федеральный выпуск №5418 (42), 01.03.2011. http://rg.ru/2011/02/25/torshin-site.html<br />

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usafrTxoebas (wamoiwyo omi samxreT oseTSi) da amdenad, emuqreba ruseTis<br />

interesebsa da ruseTis moqalaqeebis usafrTxoebas; monawileobs antirusuli<br />

mimarTulebis sxvadasxva gaerTianebaSi, rogoricaa, magaliTad, suami; eweva<br />

gegmazomier antirusul kampanias masobrivi in<strong>for</strong>maciis saerTaSoriso<br />

saSualebebis gamoyenebiTa da saerTaSoriso <strong>for</strong>umebze; avlens umadurobas da<br />

amaxinjebs istorias, rodesac acxadebs, rom rogorc me-19 saukuneSi mefis<br />

ruseTma, ise 1921 wels sabWoTa ruseTma moaxdines saqarTvelos aneqsia (Tumca<br />

sinamdvileSi saqarTvelo TiTqosda nebayoflobiT SeuerTda ruseTs da amiT<br />

gadairCina Tavi mzakvari mtrebisagan); dabolos, ruseTis oficiozi yvela<br />

ubedurebas mixeil saakaSvils miawers da uars ambobs masTan saqmis daWeraze.<br />

garda amisa, bunebrivia, rom saqarTvelosagan `mtris xatis~ Seqmna an `cbieri<br />

dasavleTis~ (ZiriTadad aSS-is) damqaSad gamocxadeba garkveulad xelsayrelia<br />

ruseTisaTvis. saqarTvelosa da misi xelisuflebis cbierebisa da `RalatisTvis~<br />

dasjiT — erTdroulad SeiZleba rogorc dasavleTisTvisac samagieros gadaxda<br />

ruseTis interesebs ugulvebelyofis gamo, ise msofliosa Tu regionisTvis<br />

Cveneba, rom ruseTis unda eSinodeT da mas pativs unda scemdnen.<br />

saqarTvelosac aqvs ruseTis mimarT wasayenebeli pretenziebi da wyenaTa<br />

CamonaTvalic, romelic aranakleb mravalricxovania da Tan _ ufro arsebiTic:<br />

es aris 2008 wlis omi; afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis gamoyofis mxardaWera, maTi<br />

okupacia da iq ruseTis samxedro bazebis ganTavseba; savaWro embargo; qveynis<br />

dabombvebi (jer kidev 2008 wlis movlenebamde); terorizmi da jaSuSebi;<br />

opoziciis mxaradWera da xelisuflebis Secvlis mcdeloba; eTnikuri<br />

qarTveliebis devna da ruseTidan gaZeveba (2006 wels); istoriis damaxinjeba;<br />

antiqarTuli propag<strong>and</strong>a da agresiuli ritorika, in<strong>for</strong>maciis gayalbeba.<br />

zemoT CamoTvlil urTierTpretenziaTa SeuTavsebloba da winaaRmdegobrivi<br />

buneba advilad SesamCnevia da isic kargad Cans, rom am winaaRmdegobebis daZleva<br />

advili ar iqneba. amisaTvis mizanSewonilia mkafiod gamoiyos rogorc<br />

interesebis umTavresi winaaRmdegobebi, ise SesaZlo interesTa damTxvevebic.<br />

amasTan, unda amovideT mxareebis gancxadebuli erovnuli interesebidan, Tuki<br />

gvinda mivyveT msjelobaTa Tanmimdevrul logikas. qveynebs Soris arsebuli<br />

ZiriTadi winaaRmdegobebi, Tuki Tavs davanebebT sxvadasxva masStabis `erovnul<br />

liderTa~ Soris arsebul pirad SeuTavseblobas, simbolur moqmedebebsa da<br />

agresiul ritorikas, gamowveulia, erTi mxriv, imiT, rom ruseTi ver egueba<br />

saqarTvelos sagareo politikis damoukidebel da prodasavlur kurss, xolo,<br />

meore mxriv _ rom saqarTvelo kategoriulad ver eTanxmeba afxazeTsa da<br />

samxreT oseTSi ruseTis samxedro ganayofebis arsebobas, rac saqarTvelos<br />

usafrTxoebas uSualod emuqreba.<br />

amasTan, arsebobs sferoebi, sadac, Tuki gavemijnebiT urTierTmtrobis<br />

iracionalur momentebs, mxareTa interesebi principulad Tanmxvedria. es,<br />

upirveles yovlisa, aris stabiluroba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, radgan iq<br />

ganviTarebuli areuloba safrTxes Seuqmnis rogorc saqarTvelos, ise ruseTs.<br />

saqarTveloSic da ruseTSic sazogadoeba aris mravaleTnikuri da saxelmwifos<br />

mSeneblobisas warmoqmnili mravali problema swored am faqtiTaa<br />

ganpirobebuli. SidaeTnikuri urTierTobebis problemebi ufro mwvaved dgas<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, xolo am tipis problemebi saqarTveloSi Tu samxreT<br />

kavkasiis sxva qveynebSi ase Tu ise ukavSirdeba qarTul-rusul urTierTobebs.<br />

bunebrivi unda iyos orive qveynis xelmZRvanelobis daintereseba CrdilosamxreTi<br />

mimarTulebiT ganviTardes tranziti, da amasTan erTad _<br />

investiciebi, bazrebi da vaWroba. dabolos, saerTo interess warmoadgens<br />

brZola saerTo safrTxesTan _ narkotikebis, iaraRis, radiaqtiuri masalebis<br />

kontrab<strong>and</strong>asTan, organizebul terorizmTan da danaSaulTan brZolis<br />

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koordinacia. esec sakmarisia, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT qveynebis politikuri<br />

xelisuflebebisTvis SedarebiT umniSvnelo sakiTxebze, rogorc, magaliTad,<br />

aris bunebrivi garemos dacva Tu epidemiologia. aqve unda SevniSnoT, rom yvela<br />

sfero, romlebSic Teoriulad emTxveva am ori qveynis interesi, mniSvnelovania<br />

dasavleTisaTvisac, da pirvel rigSi _ evrokavSirisaTvis.<br />

aq aRsaniSnavia Taviseburi paradoqsi _ ruseTi Tavad aqtiurad eswrafvis<br />

dasavleTTan daaxloebas, oRond, marTalia, Tanabari da gansakuTrebuli<br />

partniorobis pirobiT, magram igi gadametebuli eWvianobiT reagirebs, rodesac<br />

sxva postsabWoTa qveynebs uCndebaT igive survili. es unda ukavSirdebodes<br />

Tavad ruseTis gaorebul damokidebulebas dasavleTis mimarT, mas ar SeuZlia<br />

ra gadawyvitos, ramdenad fundamenturi da strategiulia misi dasavluri<br />

orientacia, anu ajobebs Tu ara, rom es partnioroba iyos mxolod droebiTi da<br />

taqtikuri. nebismier SemTxvevaSi, ruseTis politika saqarTvelos mimarT aRar<br />

aris mxolod ormxrivi urTierTobis sakiTxi. ruseTma unda gaiTvaliswinos<br />

Tavisi urTierTdamokidebuleba dasavleTTan, rac garkveulad uzRudavs<br />

ruseTis SesaZleblobas, rom Tavis mezoblebze zewolis ufro odiozuri<br />

saSualebebi gamoiyenos. marTalia, rodesac ruseTis moqmedebebi ar emuqreba<br />

dasavleTis qveynebis sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis interesebs, rogorc es iyo,<br />

magaliTad, 2008 wlis saqarTvelosTan konfliqtis dros, maSin dasavleTi<br />

mxolod ritorikuli SefasebebiT Semoifargleba xolme, risi ignorirebac<br />

ruseTs advilad SeuZlia. magram rodesac safrTxe eqmneba regionuli<br />

usafrTxoebis sakvanZo prioritetebsa Tu ekonomikur interesebs, dasavleTi<br />

da, kerZod, aSS bevrad ufro gadaWriT moqmedeben (magaliTad, energetikuli<br />

damoukideblobis uzrunvelyofis sferoSi).<br />

aqve unda iTqvas, rom zemoT CamoTvlili zogi faqtoris mniSvneloba SeiZleba<br />

Seicvalos droTa msvlelobaSi, TviT ganxilul qveynebSi da/an maTi<br />

urTierTqmedebis geopolitikuri konteqstis farglebSi mimdinare procesebis<br />

Sedegad. amgvar umniSvnelovanes cvlilebebs, Tuki davuSvebT mmarTveli<br />

elitebis SedarebiT racionalur qcevas, SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT uaxloes or<br />

weliwadSi orive qveyanaSi xelisuflebis Secvlisa da, Sesabamisad, sagareo<br />

politikis kursis gadaxalisebis, aseve farTo bWobis sagnad qceuli<br />

modernizaciis perspeqtivebi. rogorc Cans, ormxrivi urTierTobebis sferoSi<br />

arsebuli mdgomareoba, sul cota, 2012 wlamde SenarCundeba. savaraudod, 2012-<br />

2014 wlebis periodi didwilad gansazRvravs momavali aTwleulis manZilze<br />

rusul-qarTul urTierTobebis xasiaTs, Tumca, mravali faqtoris arsebobisa<br />

da SesaZlo SemTxveviTobidan gamomdinare — movlenaTa gauTvaliswinebeli gziT<br />

ganviTarebac ar aris gamoricxuli. zogadad ki vladimer gelmanis 195 prognozi<br />

moklevadian perspeqtivaSi saxavs sakmaod realistur scenars orive<br />

mxarisaTvis, imisda miuxedavad, Tu romeli konkretuli piri mova<br />

xelisuflebaSi am qveynebSi. Tumca, saqarTvelos perspeqtiva ufro mimzidvelad<br />

gamoiyureba, misi mcire zomisa da naklebi inerciulobis, Tan SedarebiT ufro<br />

ganviTarebuli demokratiuli institutebis gamo.<br />

195 `jerjerobiT usafuZvloa vivaraudoT, rom kardinalurad Seicvleba dReisaTvis ruseTSi<br />

arsebuli politikuri institutebis araefeqturi avtoritarizmi da SemuSavdeba ufro axali<br />

da warmatebuli, myari demokratiuli `TamaSis wesebi~... dReisaTvis SeiZleba gamoiyos ruseTis<br />

politikuri institutebis moklevadiani evoluciis ori sabazo varianti: an axl<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

status-kvos SenarCuneba (sabWoTa kavSiris droindeli eniT rom vTqvaT, maTi Semdgomi<br />

`lpoba~), <strong>and</strong>a avtoritaruli tendenciebis gaZlierebiT (anu `Zlieri xelis~ gamoyenebiT) maTi<br />

dabalefeqtianobis daZlevis mcdeloba. dReisaTvis orTave am variantis albaTobis Sefaseba<br />

rTulia; viTareba gairkveva ruseTis 2011-2012 wlebis saarCevno ciklis dasrulebis Semdeg~.<br />

Владимир Гельман. Политические институты. 2010. http://<strong>russia</strong>-2020.org/2010/09/14/political-institutions-2/<br />

113

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2013 wlis Semodgomidan moyolebuli, roca saqarTveloSi axal prezidents<br />

airCeven, an SesaZloa ukve 2012 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis droidanac ki,<br />

qveynis momavali sakmaod gaurkvevelia. bevri ram iqneba damokidebuli<br />

saprezidento arCevnebis wina da Semdgom periodze. ar aris gamoricxuli arc<br />

sagareo orientaciis Semobrunebis mcdeloba da ruseTTan daaxloeba im<br />

SemTxvevaSi, Tuki dasavleTi miuReblad CaTvlis arCevnebis<br />

naklebdemokratiulobas da Tu miviRebT putini-medvedeviseuli roqirebis<br />

models, rodesac saakaSvili iqceva dominantur premier-ministrad, xolo<br />

prezidentad susti figura iqneba arCeuli.<br />

ruseTSi ki, zogadad, ar aris mosalodneli raime kardinaluri cvlilebebi,<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom izrdeba Sinagani uTanxmoeba mmarTvel t<strong>and</strong>emSi, da<br />

ruseTs uwevs T<strong>and</strong>aTan Seeguos Tavisi ekonomikuri da samxedro-strategiuli<br />

wonis kargvas, ris Sedegadac is iZulebuli gaxdeba iseTi gadawyvetilebebi<br />

miiRos, rac uTuod `gadatvirTvis~ momavalze imoqmedebs. xolo Tuki<br />

gadatvirTva moiSala da modernizaciis mcdelobebi nayofs ar gamoiRebs, Sida<br />

viTarebis garTulebis pirobebSi (aq CrdiloeT kavkasiac igulisxmeba)<br />

SesaZlebelia kvlavac gamwvavdes saqarTvelosTan urTierToba. SesaZlebelia,<br />

rom ruseTi Seecados gareT mimarTos mosaxleobis agresia da darazmos<br />

sazogadoeba saerTo da arcTu saSiSi mtris winaaRmdeg, riTac Tan kvlavac<br />

dasjis dasavleTs gadatvirTvis warumateblobis gamo. isic aSkaraa, rom es ar<br />

moxdeba soWis olimpiur TamaSebamde, da zogadadac, amgvari politika<br />

saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi ruseTs mravali axali problemis gaCeniT emuqreba.<br />

axla gadavxedoT qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis gaumjobesebis<br />

SesaZleblobebs. 2008 wlis omis Semdeg mxareebs Soris pirdapiri komunikaciis<br />

erTaderTi darCenili arxi aris Jenevis molaparakebaTa <strong>for</strong>mati, xolo sxva<br />

<strong>for</strong>matebi mxolod sporadulad Tu funqcionirebs (magaliTad, msoflio<br />

savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis Sesvlaze molaparakebebi bernSi).<br />

aseT viTarebaSi naTeli xdeba, rom aucilebelia iseTi droebiTi modalobis<br />

Zieba, romlis farglebSic mxareebi SeZleben mSvidobian Tanaarsebobas da<br />

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi moaxerxeben moqmedebaTa koordinirebas ise, rom Tavidan<br />

aicilon daZabulobis zrda — vidre geopolitikuri da/an Sidapolitikuri<br />

pirobebis cvlileba ar mogvcems arsebuli problemebisa Tu dReisaTvis<br />

mougvarebeli winaaRmdegobebis daZlevis SesaZleblobas. ramdenadac<br />

gardauvalia Tanaarsebobis stabiluri modelebis Zieba, imdenad mniSvnelovania<br />

amgvari SesaZlebeli modelebis Sesaxeb diskusiac. amgvar diskusias SeuZlia<br />

gaafarTovos TvalTaxedva, warmoSvas axali konstruqciuli ideebi, misces<br />

gadawyvetilebis mimRebebs arCevanis saSualeba da amiT gavlena moaxdinos TviT<br />

urTierTobis mogvarebis procesze. amgvari gavlenis moxdena aseve SeiZleba<br />

presis saSualebiTac, diskusiis Sedegebis sazogadoebisTvis gacnobis gziT,<br />

moxdeba ra samoqalaqo sazogadoebisa da mosaxleobis farTo wreebis, maT Soris,<br />

konfliqtebis Sedegad dazaralebulis, saTanadod in<strong>for</strong>mireba.<br />

mSvidobiani Tanaarsebobis yvela SesaZlo modelisa da <strong>for</strong>matis warmosadgenad<br />

SevecadeT gvenaxa, Tu sad ikveTeba Tbilisisa da moskovis interesebi da<br />

rogoria uaxloes momavalSi qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis ganviTarebis<br />

SesaZlo scenarebi. gasagebia, rom orive mxares surs riskebisa da uaryofiTi<br />

Sedegebis Semcireba, Tumca maT moqmedebebs zRudavs Sida da gare politikuri<br />

realiebi. ase, magaliTad, Zneli warmosadgenia, rom uaxloes momavalSi ruseTis<br />

xelisufleba daTanxmdeba uari Tqvas afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiarebaze, gamoiyvans samxedro bazebs da saakaSvilis<br />

mTavrobasTan srulfasovan da Tanaswor molaparakebebs gamarTavs. zogi es<br />

SezRudva SeiZleba Seicvalos uaxloes wlebSi. magram 2013 wlis Semodgomidan<br />

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moyolebuli saakaSvili ukve <strong>for</strong>malurad mainc aRar iqneba saxelmwifos<br />

meTauri, riTac saSualeba miecema ruseTis xelmZRvanelobas SeinarCunos saxe da<br />

gaaqtiuros urTierTobebi.<br />

sinamdvileSi, zogierT iseT sakiTxSi, rac dReisaTvis mougvarebadad<br />

gveCveneba 196 , SesaZlebelia kompromisis gamonaxva. ase, magaliTad, ruseTi da misi<br />

miwodebiT — afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi ar uSveben Sesabamis teritoriebze<br />

saerTaSoriso damkvirvebelTa iseT misiebs, romelTa saxelwodebaSic<br />

saqarTvelo figurirebs. saqarTveloc ar eTanxmeba maT iseT saxels, rac<br />

SeiZleba miuTiTebdes im teritoriebis SesaZlo suverenobas, romlebsac igi<br />

Tavisad miiCnevs. erTi ram naTelia, rom mxareTa minimaluri motivaciis<br />

arsebobis SemTxvevaSi, sulac ar iqneboda Zneli iseTi kompromisis moZebna,<br />

romelic amgvar <strong>for</strong>malur moTxovnebs daakmayofilebda.<br />

saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobam (da Semdgom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis de<br />

faqto xelisuflebebmac) oficialurad ganacxada uari konfliqtis<br />

mosagvareblad Zalis gamoyenebaze. amgvari gancxadebis kanonmdeblobis<br />

farglebSi ganmtkicebas araferi udgas win da amgvari iniciativa iqneboda<br />

urTierTndobis aRdgenis saqmeSi win gadadgmuli mniSvnelovani nabiji. Tavis<br />

mxriv, ruseTi uars ambobs Tavis Tavze aiRos ormxriv urTierTobebSi Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobis valdebuleba, im sababiT, TiTqos is konfliqtis mxares ar<br />

warmoadgens. aq ar ganvixilavT amgvari argumentaciis logikurobis xarisxs da<br />

mxolod aRvniSnavT, erTi mxriv, aseTi simboluri qmedebebis did mniSvnelobas,<br />

xolo meore mxriv, im faqts, rom ar arsebobs raime seriozuli dabrkoleba, rom<br />

gamoinaxos yvela mxarisaTvis misaRebi <strong>for</strong>mulireba Zalis gamouyeneblobis<br />

Taobaze.<br />

sxva mraval sakiTxSic SesaZlebelia gamoinaxos analogiuri kompromisebi. amaT<br />

Soris metad mniSvnelovani iqneboda, Tuki qarTuli mxare gadaxedavda<br />

strategiul dokumentebs `okupirebuli teritoriebTan mimarTebaSi~, aseve _<br />

Sesabamis kanonmdeblobasa da sxvadasxva sauwyebo aqts, romlebic gulisxmobs<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis naklebad efeqtian izolacias. sasargeblo<br />

iqneboda, Tuki qarTuli mxare gadadgamda konstruqciul nabijebs afazeTsa da<br />

samxerT oseTTan urTierTobis gasaumjobeseblad, maT Soris, daubrundeboda<br />

adgilnacvali osebis qonebis restituciis sakiTxsac, risi sakanonmdeblo<br />

safuZvelic ukve arsebobs. saqarTvelo didi sifrTxiliT unda mopyroboda iseT<br />

sakiTxebs, rogoricaa CerqezTa genocidis aRiareba (Tumca, ra Tqma unda, Tavi ar<br />

unda Seikavos mefis xelisuflebis barbarosuli moqmedebebis saTanado<br />

moraluri Sefasebisgan), unda Searbilos antiolimpiuri ritorika (Tumca uari<br />

ar unda Tqvas am TamaSebis mzadebis procesSi afxazeTis CarTvasa Tu iq<br />

mimdinare samuSaoebisaTvis samSeneblo masalis mopovebasTan dakavSirebuli<br />

ekologiuri SedegebTan dakavSirebuli saTanado argumentebis gaxmovanebaze).<br />

man meti yuradReba unda dauTmos calmxrivi gadawyvetilebebis miRebisas Tavisi<br />

poziciis axsnas, magaliTad, CrdiloeT kavkasiis mcxovreblebisaTvis uvizo<br />

196 am bilo dros ukva gaCnda mravali publikacia, sadac midgomebis konstruqciul gadaxedvis<br />

mcdelobas aqvs adgili. magaliTisaTvis, ix.: Dmitry Trenin. How to Make Peace with Georgia. The Moscow<br />

Times, 09 August 2010. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/how-to-make-peace-with-<strong>georgia</strong>/411927.html<br />

; Lincoln Mitchell, Alex<strong>and</strong>er Cooley. After the August War: A New Strategy <strong>for</strong> U.S. Engagement with Georgia, The<br />

Harriman Review, Volume 17, N. 3-4, May 2010. http://www.harrimaninstitute.org/MEDIA/01798.pdf; Samuel Charap<br />

<strong>and</strong> Cory Welt. A More Proactive U.S. Approach to the Georgia Conflicts. Center <strong>for</strong> American Progress, February 2011.<br />

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/02/pdf/<strong>georgia</strong>-report.pdf; Сергей Маркедонов. Нетипичный доклад.<br />

Полит.Ру 14 марта 2011. http://polit.ru/world/2011/03/14/report_print.html; David L. Phillips. Peacebuilding <strong>and</strong><br />

Business: Fostering Commercial Contact Between <strong>Georgian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Abkhaz. National Committee on American Foreign<br />

Policy, June 2010. http://www.ncafp.org/articles/10%20Georgia%20Peacebuilding%20<strong>and</strong>%20Business.pdf<br />

115

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eJimis SemoRebasTan dakavSirebiT (savizo reJimis gamartivebis faqti mxolod<br />

misasalmebelia, magram kargi iqneboda, Tu aravis Seeqmneba STabeWdileba, rom es<br />

gakeTda ruseTis jibrze).<br />

bolo dros zogierTma eqspertma wamoWra saqarTvelos mier (da im sxva qveynebis<br />

mxridanac, romelTac uari ganacxades am teritoriebis suverenitetis<br />

legitimuriurobis aRiarebaze) afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis de faqto<br />

aRiarebis mizanSewonilobis sakiTxi. yvela konstruqciuli midgoma ganxilvis<br />

Rirsia, magram amgvari gadawyvetileba uaxloes perspeqtivaSi arc realurad<br />

gamoiyureba da, savaraudod, arc sargeblis momtania (aq kvlav vubrundebiT<br />

erovnuli ineteresebis arsis SesaZlo interpretacis sakiTxs). roca<br />

vlaparakobT afxazeTsa Tu samxreT oseTze, rogorc samarTlebriv subieqtebze,<br />

unda gaviTvaliswinoT is momenti, rom samarTalsubieqtobis Tvisebas, pirvel<br />

rigSi, qmnis mosaxleoba da ara teritoria. anu roca vlaparakobT<br />

samarTalsubieqtobaze, ar SeiZleba am teritoriidan gaZevebuli mosaxleobis,<br />

devnilebisa da sxva adgilnacvali pirebis uflebaTa ugulebelyofa. uaxloes<br />

perspeqtivaSi ar iWvriteba raime SesaZlebloba, moxdes mxareebis SeTanxmeba<br />

iseT sakvanZo sakiTxebze, rogorebicaa teritoriis samarTlebrivi statusi da<br />

devnilTa dabruneba. de faqto aRiareba am viTarebas ver Secvlis.<br />

dReisaTvis aSkaraa, rom saqarTvelos ruseTze zegavlenis sakmaod susti<br />

berketebi aqvs. Sesabamisad, SezRudulia manevrirebisa da kompromisebis<br />

sivrcec. es berketebi, faqtobrivad an aris metad marginaluri, rogoricaa,<br />

magaliTad, ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebisaTvis xelis<br />

SeSla, an mxolod simboluri xasiaTis qmedebebia, an ki, yvelaze xSirad, emyareba<br />

mesame qveynebis (aSS, evrokavSiri) saSualebiT zegavlenis mcdelobas. ruseTis<br />

SemTxvevaSi ki zemoqmedebis berketebis asortimenti gacilebiT ufro didia,<br />

xolo misi qmedebebic uSualod emuqreba saqarTvelos usafrTxoebas. pirvel<br />

rigSi es exeba afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi ruseTis SeiaraRebis dagrovebas. 197<br />

amgvar viTarebaSi, am or qveyanas Soris daZabulobis Senelebis saSualebebis<br />

Zebnis Sesaxeb laparaki jer cota ar iyos naadrevia, Tumca SesaZlo<br />

kompromisebis ganxilva mainc saWiroa.<br />

Seqmnil viTarebaSi eqspertebis dialogis institucionalizacia da<br />

urTierTobis gaumjobesebis SesaZlo modelebis regularuli ganxilva SeiZleba<br />

uSualod win uZRvodes TviT am modelebis realizacias, Tuki amgvari ganxilva<br />

ar iqneba daxuruli, xolo misi Sedegebi cnobili gaxdeba mosaxleobis<br />

relevanturi jgufebisaTvis. amasTan, sazogadoebrivi azris Camoyalibebis,<br />

movlenaTa interpretaciis, dRis wesrigis Sedgenisa da faseulobebis<br />

gansazRvrisas mniSvnelovania, ra saSualebiT xdeba sazogadoebisaTvis<br />

in<strong>for</strong>maciis miwodeba, anu Tu ramdenad naTelad aris Camoyalibebuli<br />

movlenaTa interpretacia da ganxilvis dRis wesrigi da rogoria TviT<br />

komunikatoris avtoriteti sazogadoebaSi.<br />

197 magaliTad, samxreT oseTSi ganTavsebul gvardiis divizions, romelic aRWurvilia `smerCis~<br />

(Смерч) zalpuri cecxlis saraketo sistemiT, Seemata `toCka-u~ (Точка-У) saraketo kompleqsi,<br />

romlis moqmedebis siSore 120 km-s aRwevs (http://www.rosbalt.ru/2011/01/24/811657.html). kidev ufro<br />

saintereso da paradoqsulia ruseTis federaciis sagareo saqmeTa ministris moadgilis<br />

grigol karsinis 4 marts gakeTebuli gancxadeba, rom `taqtikuri raketebi `toCka-u~ samxreT<br />

oseTSi droebiT aris Seyvanili saswavlo manevrebSi monawileobis misaRebad~.<br />

http://www.militaryparitet.com/teletype/data/ic_teletype/9902/<br />

116

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eziume<br />

modus vivendi: ga<strong>for</strong>mebis variantebi<br />

117<br />

<strong>and</strong>rei zagorski<br />

profesori,<br />

moskovis saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis<br />

saxelmwifo instituti<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis arcnobisa da izolaciis xisti politika arc<br />

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg Camoyalibebuli status-kvos daZlevasa da<br />

Serbilebas ganapirobebs da arc konfliqtis T<strong>and</strong>aTanobiT mosagvareblad<br />

orive mxarisTvis misaRebi <strong>for</strong>mulebis saZebnelad Seqmnis winapirobebs. misi<br />

Sedegi iqneba amJamindeli status-kvos konsolidacia da mxareebis kidev ufro<br />

daSoriSoreba.<br />

radganac moklevadian da saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi SeuZlebelia omis<br />

Sedegebis gadaxedva, dRis wesrigSi dgeba Seqmnili viTarebis modus vivendis _<br />

droebiTi mdgomareobis aRiarebis safuZvelze SeTanxmebebis miRweva, romelic<br />

arc dainteresebul mxareTa samarTlebriv poziciebs gaauqmebs da arc<br />

samomavlod konfliqtebis savaraudo mogvarebis SesaZleblobas miayenebs<br />

zians.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis de faqto aRiareba grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi<br />

konfliqtebis mogvarebis ufro xelsayrel pirobebs Camoayalibebda. am<br />

mimarTulebiT svla afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis armcnobi qveynebis da,<br />

pirvel rigSi, saqarTvelos mxridan arc ise martivi gadawyvetilebebis miRebas<br />

moiTxovs.<br />

amave dros SesaZlebeli gaxdeboda politikuri da diplomatiuri ganxilvebis<br />

Sedegad ukana planze gadaweuliyo uTanxmoeba ori warmonaqmnis statusis<br />

Taobaze, Seqmniliyo winapirobebi regionSi daZabulobis ganmuxtvisa da<br />

urTierTobebis normalizaciisTvis, mSobliur adgilebSi devnilTa (iZulebiT<br />

gadaadgilebul pirTa) usafrTxo dabrunebis kanonieri uflebis cnobisTvis,<br />

SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da SeiaraRebis Semcirebis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebebis<br />

miRwevisTvis, regionSi ndobis ganmtkicebisTvis, saerTaSoriso<br />

organizaciebis moRvaweobis zonis gafarToebisTvis, maT Soris, afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis teritoriebze.<br />

rekomendaciebi<br />

saqarTvelos afxazeTTan, samxreT oseTTan da ruseTTan urTierTobis<br />

normalizacia<br />

1. ukanaskneli wlebisa da Tveebis diskusiebis gaTvaliswinebiT,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis de faqto aRiarebis bunebrivi <strong>for</strong>ma<br />

SeiZleba gamxdariyo saqarTvelos mxridan maTTan dadebuli SeTanxmeba<br />

(an SeTanxmebebi) Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb.<br />

2. radgan ruseTis federacia sakuTar Tavs ar ganixilavs konfliqtis<br />

mxared, es rTuli sakiTxi SeiZleba mogvarebuliyo ruseTsa da<br />

saqarTvelos Soris Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb calke SeTanxmebis<br />

dadebiT.

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3. mxareTa interesTa balansis uzrunvelsayofad, cxadia, qarTulafxazuri<br />

da qarTul-samxreTosuri SeTanxmebebi mxolod Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobas ver Seexeba. isini unda Seicavdes rig sxva debulebebs,<br />

kerZod, politikuri dialogisa Tu savaWro-ekonomikuri da<br />

satranporto TanamSromlobis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb, samoqalaqosazogadoebriv<br />

organizaciebs Soris dialogis xelSewyobis Sesaxeb,<br />

xalxTa Soris kontaqebisa da in<strong>for</strong>maciis gacvlis Sesaxeb. ama Tu im<br />

<strong>for</strong>miT es xelSekrulebebi gverds ver auvlis sakiTxs mSobliur<br />

adgilebSi yvelas dabrunebis Sesaxeb, vinc samxedro moqmdebebs gaeqca<br />

da ukan dabruneba unda. am SeTanxmebebis konkretuli Sinaarsi<br />

damokidebulia mxareTa Soris molaparakebebis Sedegebze, romlebic<br />

TavisTavad SeiZleba iqces biZgad urTierTobebis Tanmimdevruli<br />

mogvarebisaTvisac.<br />

4. mudmivi politikuri dialogis xelSewyobisa da regularuli<br />

komunikaciis mizniT mxareebma SeiZleba gacvalon mudmivi<br />

warmomadgenlebi.<br />

5. mxareebs aseve SeuZliaT dasaxon momavali dialogis dRis wesrigi,<br />

sadac Setanilli iqneba SeTanxmeba ndobis arasamxedro zomebis Sesaxeb,<br />

gamyofi xazis gaswvriv demilitarizaciisa da SeiaraRebis kontrolis<br />

regionuli reJimis Camoyalibebis sakiTxebi.<br />

urTierTobis damyareba evrokavSirs da afxazeTsa da samreT oseTs Soris<br />

6. evrokavSiris programebis ganxorcielebis koordinaciisTvis soxumsa<br />

da cxinvalSi evrokavSiris ofisebis gaxsna, romlebic, sxva<br />

saqmianobasTan erTad, sakuTar Tavze aiRebdnen vizebis ga<strong>for</strong>mebasTan<br />

dakavSirebul sakonsulo funqciebsa da orive warmonaqmnSi<br />

evrokavSiris sain<strong>for</strong>macio centris rolsac Seasrulebdnen. amasTan,<br />

afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan evrokavSiris pirdapiri<br />

urTierTobebis damyareba ar niSnavs evrokavSiris wevri qveynebis mier<br />

am respublikebis de iure aRiarebas.<br />

7. afxazeTsa da samreT oseTSi evrokavSiris proeqtebis dafinansebis<br />

SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb gadawyvetileba unda miiRon soxumisa da<br />

cxinvalis ofisebma da es ar unda moxdes saqarTvelos gavliT.<br />

8. es SeTanxmebebi unda iTvaliswinebdes evrokavSiris (EUMM)<br />

damkvirveblebis moRvaweobis zonis gafarToebas, ukidures<br />

SemTxvavaSi, gamyofi xazis gaswvriv mdebare afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTis raionebze.<br />

euTos dabruneba regionSi<br />

9. afxazeTTan da samxeT oseTTan evrokavSiris urTierTobis mogvareba<br />

SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos regionSi euTos moRvaweobis<br />

ganaxlebasTan. imisaTvis, rom gverdi avuqcioT misiis saxelwodebis<br />

saTuT sakiTxs, SeiZleboda euTos sami ofisis ganTavseba TbilisSi,<br />

soxumsa da cxinvalSi da maTi administaciuli damorCileba euTos<br />

konfilqtebis aRkveTis centirisaTvis, moqmedi Tavmjdomaris<br />

politikuri xelmZRvanelobiT.<br />

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alternatiul variantad SeiZleba ganvixiloT samxreT kavkasiaSi euTos<br />

misiis daarseba xuTi centriT — baqoSi, erevanSi, soxumSi, Tbilissa da<br />

cxinvalSi, romelTa Stab-binac iqneba saqarTvelos farglebs gareT.<br />

10. amgvari gadawyvetilebis miRebas SeiZleba moeTxova afxazeTisa da,<br />

SesaZloa, samxreT oseTis euToSi Sesvla Tu ara, raime regularuli<br />

<strong>for</strong>miT maTi konsultatiuri monawileoba (mudmivi sabWos sxdomebze<br />

maTi warmomadgenlebis mowveviT an sityvis uflebis mqone<br />

damkvirveblis saxiT), rodesac moxdeba samxreT kavkasiis regionTan<br />

dakavSirebuli sakiTxebis ganxilva.<br />

1. problemis dasma<br />

qarTul-afxazuri da qarTul-samxreTosuri konfliqtebis zonebSi<br />

dainteresebuli mxareebis sxvadasxva mimarTulebis politika arc 2008 wlis<br />

agvistos omis Semdeg Camoyalibebuli status-kvos daZlevasa da Serbilebas<br />

uwyobs xels da arc konfliqtis T<strong>and</strong>aTanobiT mosagvareblad orive<br />

mxarisTvis misaRebi <strong>for</strong>mulebis saZebnelad qmnis winapirobebs. misi Sedegi<br />

iqneba amJamindeli status-kvos konsolidacia da mxareebis kidev ufro<br />

daSoriSoreba.<br />

saqarTvelos mier gatarebuli kategoriuli politika, afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTis xelisuflebebis arcnobisa da gare samyarosgan maTi maqsimaluri<br />

izolaciisa (aseve mesame qveynebis mier), sinamdvileSi xels uwyobs orive<br />

warmonaqmnis mimarT ruseTis federaciis monopoliuri dominanturi<br />

mdgomareobis ganmtkicebasa da maT sul ufro metad mibmas ruseTTan.<br />

okupirebuli teritoriebis Sesaxeb 2009 wlis oqtombris kanonis<br />

moTxovnebidan gansxvavebuli politika gamoricxavs Tbilisis raime saxis<br />

urTierTobas soxumisa da cxinvalis faqtobriv xelisuflebebTan, garda<br />

Jenevis molaparakebebis CarCoebiT gansazRvruli gamoZiebisa da gamyofi xazis<br />

gaswvriv incidentTa eskalaciis Tavidan acilebis meqanizmebisa, romlebic<br />

2008 wels dadginda.<br />

es politika aseve mniSvnelovnad zRudavs saerTaSoriso arasamTvrobo<br />

organizaciebisa da mesame qveynebis arasamTavrobo organizaciebis saqmianobas,<br />

romelic SeiZleba mimarTuli yofiliyo afxazeTSi proeqtebis<br />

ganxorcielebaze da afxazeTis samoqalaqo sazogadoebis monawileobiT<br />

sxvadasxva <strong>for</strong>matis dialogis gamarTvaze. amave dros amgvari politika<br />

aranair gavlenas ar axdens afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis urTierTqmedebaze<br />

ruseTis federaciasTan, rogorc saxelmwifo dawesebulebebis, ise<br />

arasamTavrobo da komerciuli organizaciebis mxriv.<br />

es politikuri xazi ZiriTadad mimarTulia, rom ar dauSvas<br />

damoukideblobagamocxadebuli teritoriebis ufro farTo saerTaSoriso<br />

aRiareba da maTi saerTaSoriso legitimurobis zrda. sinamdvileSi ki orive<br />

warmonaqmnSi saxelmwifos mSeneblobis <strong>for</strong>sirebisa da iq ruseTis<br />

proteqtoratis ganmtkicebisTvis xelsayrel garemos qmnis.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis araRiarebis politika mesame qveynebisa da,<br />

pirvel rigSi, evrokavSirisa da misi wevri qveynebis saqmianobis mkacrad<br />

SezRudvas iwvevs. es saqmianoba ki mimarTuli iqneboda urTierTgamijvnis<br />

procesis SeCerebisken, rom dadgenili sazRvari ufro gamWvirvale gamxdariyo,<br />

xeli Sewyoboda stabilurobisa da urTierTndobis gamyarebas, aseve _<br />

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samomavlod regionSi TanaarsebobisTvis orive mxarisTvis misaRebi <strong>for</strong>mulis<br />

ZiebisTvis winapirobebis Camoyalibebas.<br />

es SezRudvebi kidev ufro Rrmavdeba saqarTvelos mier amJamad gatarebuli<br />

politikis Sedegad.<br />

amrigad, evrokavSiris kontaqtebi, magaliTad, afxazeTis faqtobriv<br />

xelisuflebasTan, minimumamdea dayvanili, xolo samxreT oseTTan urTerToba<br />

sulac Sewyvetilia 2008 wlis agvistos Semdeg, Tuki ar CavTvliT kontaqtebs<br />

Jenevis molaparakebis procesis farglebSi.<br />

amJamad mTavrdeba afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi moqmedi evrokavSiris<br />

programebis dafinanseba, xolo arcnobis politikis pirobebSi ufro<br />

grZelvadiani finansuri instrumentebis, pirvel rigSi, evrokavSiris<br />

samezoblo da partniorobis instrumentis iq amoqmedeba SeuZlebelia.<br />

es yvelaferi imas moaswavebs, rom miuxedavad evrokavSiris deklarilebuli<br />

miswrafebisa, gaataros afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mimarT aqtiuri<br />

CarTulobis politika, amis realizaciis SesaZleblobebi praqtikulad sul<br />

ufro mcirdeba, riTac myardeba regionSi ruseTis, rogorc erTaderTi<br />

donoris, pozicia.<br />

afxazeTis sxvadasxva politikuri Zala, ekonomikuri operatorebi da<br />

samoqalaqo sazogadoebis organizaciebi, marTalia, mesame qveynebTan<br />

urTierTobis gafarToebisadmi interess avlenen, magram Seqmnil viTarebaSi<br />

aseT SesaZleblobas moklebuli arian. amitomac aq erTmniSvnelovan<br />

prioritets warmoadgens saxelmwifos <strong>for</strong>sirebuli mSenebloba, yovelgvari<br />

iseTi qmedebebis gverdis avliT, rac SeiZleba ganixilebodes ante bellum<br />

status-kvosken mimarTulad Tu am status-kvos aRdgenis gamomwvevad.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis xelisuflebaTa kategoriuli uari evrokavSiris<br />

saqarTvelosTvis gankuTvnil programebSi monawileobaze, rom ar surT miiRon<br />

TbilisSi akreditebuli diplomatebi da sxva tipis warmomadgenlebi,<br />

evrokavSiris savizo politikis sirTuleebi, am or warmonaqmnSi raime saxis<br />

diplomatiuri warmomadgenlobebis ararseboba sul ufro zRudavs maT<br />

kontaqtebs da sul ufro kvecs politikuri da sazogadoebrivi<br />

organizaciebisa da biznessazogadoebis ufro farTo saerTaSoriso dialogSi<br />

CarTvis SesaZleblobebs. Sedegad iq Zlierdeba `alyaSemortymuli<br />

cixesimagris~ efeqti.<br />

Camoyalibebuli status-kvos konsolidacia am etapze ruseTis federaciis<br />

xelisuflebas xels unda aZlevdes, Tumca moskovs aseve uxdeba gaiTvaliswinos<br />

is seriozuli finansuri da saerTaSoriso-politikuri ziani, rac amgvar<br />

politikas moaqvs.<br />

zemoT gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi SesaZleblobas iZleva dRis wesrigSi dadges<br />

dainteresebul mxareTa politikis prioritetebis gadaxedvis sakiTxi.<br />

mimdinare dRis wesrigSi status-kvos (misi gadalaxvis an konsolidaciis)<br />

sakiTxi yvelaze ukan unda gadaiwios, wina planze ki mizanSewonili iqneba<br />

gadmovides sxvadasxvaplaniani (ekonomikuri, humanitaruli, kulturuli,<br />

politikuri) da sxvadasxvadoniani (municipaluri da centraluri<br />

xelisuflebis, samoqalaqo sazogadoebis da biznesis doneze) urTierToba,<br />

pirvel rigSi, konfliqtis mxareebs Soris, romelic ar gulisxmobs mxareebis<br />

uaris Tqmas sakuTar samarTlebriv poziciebze da regionSi kompleqsuri<br />

procesebis saboloo SedegisaTvis zianis miyenebas.<br />

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2. amosavali wertili analizisTvis<br />

2.1. 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Sedegad afxazeTis da samxreT oseTis<br />

konfliqtis zonebSi axali viTareba Camoyalibda.<br />

ruseTma orive warmonaqmnis damoukidebloba aRiara, aseve _ venesuelam da<br />

nikaraguam, afxazeTis damoukidebloba ki aRiara naurum.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobas, ruseTis garda, ar aRiarebs<br />

euTos wevri arc erTi saxelmwifo, dsT-is qveynebis CaTvliT.<br />

amrigad, amosavali varaudi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom uaxloes xanSi<br />

Camoyalibebuli mdgomareoba kardinalurad ar Seicvleba da dainteresebuli<br />

mxareebi sakuTar samaTlebriv poziciebze uars ar ityvian.<br />

ruseTi uars ar ityvis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebaze.<br />

saqarTvelo ki, Tavis mxriv, ar aRiarebs maT de iure damoukideblobas, Tumca<br />

ar gaaCnia (ukve TiTqmis oci welia) rogorc afxazeTis, ise samxreT oseTis<br />

teritoriaze xelisuflebis uflebamosilebis ganxorcielebis saSualeba.<br />

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis, gansakuTrebiT ki, evroatlantikuri sivrcis<br />

wevrTa udidesi umravlesoba ar aRiarebs maT de iure.<br />

afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi, romlebsac 2008 wels SedarebiT xanmokle<br />

perpeqtivaSi damoukideblobis ufro farTo aRiarebis imedi hqondaT,<br />

eswrafvian nebismieri saxis kontaqts mesame qveynebisa da saerTaSoriso<br />

organizaciebis warmomadgenlebTan, raTa gazardon sakuTari saerTaSoriso<br />

legitimacia.<br />

2.2. saqmis arsebuli viTareba amJamadac iwvevs da momavalSic gamoiwvevs sul<br />

ufro met garTulebas.<br />

Tuki droulad ar gadawydeba sakiTxi, romelic mxareebs sakuTari<br />

samarTlebrivi poziciebis SenarCunebis SesaZleblobas miscems da romelic ar<br />

daazaralebs problemis saboloo mogvarebis perspeqtivas, SeuZlebelia<br />

ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobis srulfasovani gaumjobeseba.<br />

aqve aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris urTierTobebis<br />

normalizaciis blokireba xdeba ara mxolod afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

statusis Sesaxeb gansxvavebuli samarTlebrivi poziciebis gamo, aramed im<br />

boikotis Sedegadac, romelic moskovma saqarTvelos prezident m. saakaSvils<br />

gamoucxada. ormxrivi urTierTobis normalizacia ar iqneba srulfasovani,<br />

Tuki moskovsa da Tbiliss Soris umaRles doneze kontaqtebi ar iqneba. am<br />

mizeziT, boikotis politikis SenarCunebis SemTxvevaSi, normalizaciisken<br />

gadadgmuli nebismieri nabiji, sul mcire, ori wliT gadavaddeba.<br />

Seqmnili mdgomareobis SenarCuneba saerTaSoriso-politikuri TvalsazrisiT<br />

azaralebs ruseTs, Tumca oficialuri moskovi amas ar aRiarebs. es amZimebs<br />

ruseTis urTierTobas dasavleTis qveynebTan, miuxedavad SeTanxmebisa, rom<br />

uTanxmoeba saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobasTan dakavSirebiT ar unda<br />

abrkolebdes ruseTis TanamSromlobas dasavleTis ZiriTad qveynebTan,<br />

evrokavSirTan da natosTan.<br />

saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobasTan dakavSirebuli uTanxmoeba<br />

dReisaTvis yvelaze mniSvnelovani (Tumca araerTaderTi) dabrkolebaa<br />

evropaSi Cveulebriv SeiaraRebul Zalebze kontrolis aRdgenis sakiTxis<br />

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gadawyvetis gzaze. nebismieri SeTanxmeba, romelic am sakiTxSi saqarTvelos<br />

monawileobasac gulisxmobs, SesaZlebelia Seferxdes saqarTvelos<br />

teritoriaze rusuli jarebis yofniT gamowveuli Tbilisis ukmayofilebis<br />

gamo; amasTan, maT ganlagebas afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi moskovi SeiZleba<br />

arc ki ganixilavdes daniSnulebis qveynis aucilebeli Tanxmobis principis<br />

darRvevad, radgan es sakiTxi soxumTan da cxinvalTan ormxrivi<br />

SeTanxmebebiTaa mogvarebuli.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusi ruseTisTvis problemebs aseve msoflio<br />

savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebis TvalsazrisiTac qmnis. saqarTvelos aqvs<br />

SesaZlebloba da safuZveli, rom msoflio savaWro organizaciis mravalmxrivi<br />

jgufis ruseTTan dakavSirebul molaparakebebze dablokos am sakiTxis<br />

dadebiTad gadawyveta.<br />

samxreT kavkasiaSi Seqmnili mdgomareobis gagebasa da ganmartebaSi arsebuli<br />

azrTa sxvadasxvaoba, rogorc 2010 wlis euTos astanis samitma aCvena,<br />

progress, dakavSirebuls saqarTveloSi arsebuli viTarebidan ganyenebul<br />

mraval sakiTxSi euTos farglebSi miRweul praqtikul SeTanxmebebTan,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mougvarebeli statusis mZevlad aqcevs.<br />

marTalia, moskovi oficialurad acxadebs, rom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

problema ukve aRar dgas dasavlel wamyvan partniorebTan misi urTierTobis<br />

dRis wesrigSi, magram am sakiTxSi arsebuli uTanxmoebebi am urTierTobebis<br />

mudmiv uaryofiT fonad iqca.<br />

samxreT oseTi da, gansakuTrebiT, afxazeTi momavalSic mZime mdgomareobaSi<br />

iqnebian araRiarebuli saxelmwifos dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareobis gamo, romelic<br />

2008 wlis Semdeg politikuri TvalsazrisiT didad ar Secvlila.<br />

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisTvis TavisTavad afxazeTs da, miT ufro, samxreT<br />

oseTs ar gaaCniaT arc ekonomikuri, arc politikuri da arc samxedropolitikuri<br />

xasiaTis arsebiTi Rirebuleba, magram maTi samarTlebrivi<br />

statusis SefasebaSi arsebuli principuli uTanxmoeba mniSvnelovania, sul<br />

mcire, ori mizezis gamo.<br />

pirvel rigSi, isini tvirTad awevs ruseTis federaciasTan urTierTobebs. am<br />

mizeziT saerTaSoriso organizaciebisTvis mniSvenlovania ara TavisTavad<br />

afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi, aramed rogorc problema moskovTan<br />

urTierTobaSi. dasavleTis qveynebi Zalianac arian dainteresebuli sakiTxis<br />

ramenairad, Tundac droebiT, gadawyvetiT, yvelaferTan erTad imitomac, rom<br />

am qveynebidan bevrs unda msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis saswrafo<br />

gawevrianeba, evropaSi Cveulebriv SeiaraRebul Zalebze kontrolis aRdgena,<br />

agreTve _ radgan maTTvis arasasurvelia, rom saerTaSoriso organizaciebis,<br />

kerZod ki, euTos bedi da imiji samxreTkavkasiuri konfliqtebis mZevali iyos.<br />

meore mxriv, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis statusTan dakavSirebul<br />

samaTlebriv poziciebs Soris gansxvaveba xels uSlis saerTaSoriso<br />

organizaciebis (euTo da potenciurad gaero) konfliqtis zonaSi `dabrunebis~<br />

sakiTxis praqtikul gadawyvetas da (an) EUMM-is saqmianobis gavrcelebas<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis teritoriebze.<br />

yvela es viTareba saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas moklevadian da saSualovadian<br />

perspeqtivaSi ubiZgebs ipovos sakiTxis ramenairi gadawyveta, romelic ar<br />

Seexeboda orive warmonaqmnis statuss.<br />

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saqarTvelo kvlav ikavebs Tavis maqsimalistur pozicias, uars ambobs ra<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis aRiarebaze da aZlevs ra<br />

ruseTis qmedebebs okupaciis kvalifikacias. TumcaRa, amgvari maqsimalisturi<br />

pozicia araTu prolemis gadawyvetas da qveynis teritoriuli mTlianobis<br />

aRdgenas moitans, aramed, piriqiT, CixSi Sehyavs igi, radgan problemis<br />

mogvareba ukve aRar aris TviTaRiarebul warmonaqmnebze saqarTvelos<br />

iurisdiqciis meqanikuri gavrcelebis sibrtyeze, xolo xisti poziciis<br />

SenarCuneba da konfrontacia afxazeTis axl<strong>and</strong>eli xelisuflebis<br />

konsolidaciasa da samxreT oseTSi arsebuli xelisuflebis mxardaWeras<br />

exmareba.<br />

problemis mogvareba savaraudoa mxolod grZelvadiani aspeqtiT _ afxazTa da<br />

osTa `gulis dapyrobis~ gziT, Tuki aseTi ram saerTod SesaZlebelia<br />

Tvalsawier perspeqtivaSi.<br />

orive warmonaqmnTan politikuri konfrontaciis pirobebSi amgvari<br />

grZelvadiani politikis realizeba SeuZleblad gveCveneba, radgan afxazeTTan<br />

da samxreT oseTTan ar aris awyobili mravalwaxnagovani kontaqtebi da<br />

TanamSromloba, xolo ruseTTan urTierToba mougvarebelia.<br />

saqarTvelos zogierTi opozicioneri politikosis imedi, rom ruseTi<br />

saqarTvelos `daubrunebs~ mowyvetil teritoriebs natoSi Sesvlaze uaris<br />

Tqmis safasurad, sul mcire, gulubryviloa.<br />

Tuki marTalia varaudi imis Sesaxeb, rom saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi<br />

saerTaSoriso sazogadoeba eZebs am problemis mogvarebis gzebs, unda<br />

amovideT iqidan, rom teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis sakiTxSi<br />

saqarTvelos politikuri da samarTlebrivi poziciebis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

mxardaWera Sesustdeba, magram arc afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis farTo<br />

saerTaSoriso-samarTlebriv aRiarebaSi gadaizrdeba.<br />

warmodgenilma mosazrebebma Tbiliss unda ubiZgos iseTi droebiTi gamosavlis<br />

Ziebisken, romelic am teritoriebis aRiareba-araRiarebis sakiTxs ukana<br />

planze gadaswevs ise, rom uari ar Tqvas sakuTar samarTlebriv poziciebsa da<br />

saboloo mizanze _ qveynis teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenaze.<br />

amasTan, Riad rCeba sakiTxi imis Sesaxeb, ramdenad aris mzad qveynis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

xelmZRvaneloba da saqarTvelos sazogadoeba, rom araTu aRiaros, aramed<br />

Seeguos garemoebas, rom problemis swrafi gadawyvetis imedi iluzorulia da<br />

rom dRev<strong>and</strong>eli politika Tvalsawier perspeqtivaSi ara problemis<br />

daZlevisaken, aramed axali status-kvos konsolidaciisken midis.<br />

modus vivendis ga<strong>for</strong>mebis variantebi<br />

rogorc zemoTqmulidan Cans, Tvalsawier perspeqtivaSi afxazeTsa da samxreT<br />

oseTs ar unda hqondes saerTaSoriso-samarTlebrivi aRiarebis imedi. Tumca<br />

saerTaSoriso samarTali da saerTaSoriso praqtika araRiarebul<br />

saxelmwifoebTan urTierTobebis damyarebis araerT magaliTs icnobs. es ar<br />

dadis mxolod aRiareba-araRiarebas Soris arCevanamde.<br />

3.1. saerTaSoriso samarTalSi arsebobs ori konceptualuri midgoma<br />

saxelmwifoTa aRiarebis institutTan 198 .<br />

198 ix.: Международное право: учебник. Изд. 2-е, доп. и перераб. Отв. ред. Ю.М. Колосов, В.И.Кузнецов. – М.:<br />

Международные отношения, 1998. 56 – 68; Ralf Wilde, Recognition in International Law, in: Recognition of States:<br />

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konstitutiuri Teoria amodis iqidan, rom mxolod saerTaSoriso aRiarebis<br />

aqti aniWebs saxelmwifos saerTaSoriso samarTalsubieqtobas, xolo<br />

mTavrobas _ unars warmoadginos igi saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi.<br />

saerTaSoriso samarTlis Tanamedrove doqtrinaSi ki ufro gavrcelebulia<br />

deklaratiuli Teoria, romlis mixedviTac, saerTaSoriso aRiareba,<br />

TavisTavad, ar aniWebs saxelmwifos samarTalsubieqtobas, xolo mTavrobas _<br />

saxelmwifoTa Soris urTierTobebSi CarTvis unars. aRiarebis aqti mxolod<br />

saxelmwifos warmoqmnis faqtis konstatirebas axdens, saxelmwifosi, romelic<br />

arsebobs da aqvs samarTalsubieqtoba imis miuxedavad, aRiarebulia igi Tu ara.<br />

samarTalsubieqtobis mopovebisTvis saxelmwifosTvis sakmarisia hqondes<br />

Semdegi oTxi niSani 199 :<br />

• teritoria, romelzec vrceldeba misi iurisdiqcia;<br />

• mosaxleoba, romelic mis teritoriaze cxovrobs, Tan mosaxleobis<br />

raodenobas ara aqvs principuli mniSvneloba.<br />

• xelisufleba, romelic efeqturad akontrolebs qveynis teritorias an<br />

mis udides nawils da sakmaod efeqturia imisaTvis, rom Caebas<br />

saxelmwifoTaSoris urTierTobaSi saxelmwifos da (an) Sesabamisi<br />

teritoriis mosaxleobis warmomadgenlis saxiT.<br />

• saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi damoukideblad monawileobis unari<br />

(damoukidebloba).<br />

aqedan gamomdinare, saerTaSoriso samarTlebrivi aRiareba ar warmoadgens<br />

saxelmwifoebriobis warmoqmnis winapirobas, xolo aRiarebis arqona gavlenas<br />

ar axdens saxelmwifos saerTaSoriso-samarTlebliv statusze. aRiarebis<br />

arqona mxolod faqtobrivad arTulebs saxelmwifoTa Soris urTierTobebis<br />

ganxorcielebas. Tumca, araRiarebuli saxelmwifoebic ki, romelTac aqvT<br />

saxelmwifoebriobis aucilebeli niSnebi, floben saxelmwifoebis yvela<br />

uflebasa da movaleobas, saerTaSoriso samarTlis Sesabamisad. deklaratiuli<br />

Teoria ar gamoricxavs imis SesaZleblobas, rom gansazRvrul SemTxvevebSi<br />

saerTaSoriso aRiarebam SeiZleba iTamaSos konstitutiuri an<br />

kvazikonstitutiuri roli. laparakia im SemTxvevebze, rodesac saerTaSoriso<br />

samarTlis subieqtebad aRiarebuli arian iseTi warmonaqmnebi, romlebic<br />

obieqturad ar SeiZleba iyvnen saerTaSoriso samarTlis subieqtebi (klasikuri<br />

magaliTia maltis ordeni) an aRiarebis momentSi srulad ar floben zemoT<br />

CamoTvlil niSnebs.<br />

ase, magaliTad, 1992 wels bosniisa da hercegovinis saerTaSoriso aRiarebis<br />

faqtma xeli Seuwyo saxelmwifos konstituirebas im momentSi, rodesac mas<br />

srulad ar gaaCnda saxelmwifoebriobisTvis damaxasiaTebeli yvela<br />

aucilebeli niSani. saerTaSoriso aRiarebis faqtma ganmsazRvreli<br />

konstitutiuri roli iTamaSa kosovosTvisac, romlis suverenitetic<br />

SezRudulia saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis farTo uflebamosilebebiT, rac<br />

Seesabameba gaeros usafrTxoebis sabWos 1244-e rezolucias.<br />

The Consequences of Recognition or Non-Recognition in UK <strong>and</strong> International Law. Summary of the International Law<br />

Discussion Group meeting held at Chattham House on 4 February 2010. 6–7; Anthony Aust, H<strong>and</strong>book of International<br />

Law, Second edition. – Cambridge etc.: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 15–26; Brad R. Roth, Governmental<br />

illegitimacy in international law. – Ox<strong>for</strong>d; New York: Ox<strong>for</strong>d University Press, 1999. 150–154; Peter Malanczuk,<br />

Akehurst’s Modern Introduction to International Law, seven revised edition. – Routledge, 1997. 75–89.<br />

199 klasikuria pirveli sami niSani.<br />

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aRsaniSnavia, rom warmodgenili SezRudvebi ar exeba am statiaSi ganxilul<br />

SemTxvevas. mTlianobaSi afxazeTi Seesabameba zemoT CamoTvlil<br />

saxelmwifoebriobis kriteriumebs da amitomac flobs samarTalsubieqtobas,<br />

miuxedavad misi aRiareba-araRiarebisa.<br />

garkveuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma SeiZleba samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebiTac,<br />

romlis faqtobrivi damoukidebloba samarTlian eWvs iwvevs. amis dasturad<br />

sakmarisia gadavxedoT samxreT oseTis mTavrobis Semadgenlobasa da misi<br />

biujetis Sevsebis wyaroebs. Tumca, iuridiulad ruseTi mas damoukidebel<br />

saxelmwifod ganixilavs.<br />

3.2. saerTaSoriso praqtikisTvis aseve cnobilia saxelmwifoTa aRiarebis<br />

sxvadasxva <strong>for</strong>ma, romelTac sxvadasxva politikuri da samarTlebrivi Sedegi<br />

mosdevs.<br />

pirvel rigSi, gamoiyofa oficialuri aRiarebis ori ZiriTadi <strong>for</strong>ma: de iure<br />

da de faqto.<br />

Tuki de iure aRiareba miCneulia saxelmwifos aRiarebis srul, saboloo<br />

saerTaSoriso aqtad, romelsac diplomatiuri urTierTobebis damyareba<br />

mohyveba (winamdebare statiaSi aRiarebis am <strong>for</strong>mas Cven ar ganvixilavT<br />

problemis gadawyvetis variantad), samagierod, de faqto aRiarebas Sualeduri<br />

xasiaTi aqvs. is SeiZleba ganixilebodes, rogorc droebiTi zoma, romelic<br />

momavalSi de iure aRiarebiskenaa mimarTuli, magram aseve SeiZleba asaxavdes<br />

eWvs da urwmunoebas mocemuli saxelmwifos dRegrZelobisa da<br />

sicocxlisunarianobis Taobaze.<br />

warmoadgens ra saqmeTa faqtobrivi mdgomareobis aRiarebas, anu gansazRvrul<br />

teritoriaze xelisuflebis arsebobas, romelic am teritoriaze efeqtur<br />

kontrols axorcielebs da Seswevs unari warmoadginos misi mosaxleoba<br />

saxelmwifoTaSoris urTierTobebSi, de faqto aRiareba amodis iqidan, rom<br />

arsebuli viTareba droebiTia, anu afiqsirebs modus vivendis da ar axdens<br />

Camoyalibebuli status-kvos ratificirebas. amave dros is ar axdens<br />

mikerZoebas, Tu ra mimarTulebiT SeiZleba ganviTardes da ganviTardeba<br />

arsebuli viTareba, rac yvela mxares saSualebas aZlevs SeinarCunos Tavisi,<br />

xSirad urTierTsawinaaRmdego, samarTlebrivi poziciebi da gaagrZelos<br />

Tavisi, aseve xSirad urTierTsawinaaRmdego, politikuri miznebisaken swrafva.<br />

de iure an de faqto aRiarebas mosdevs sxvadasxva moculobis samarTlebrivi<br />

Sedegebi. es gansxvavebebi ar aris gansazRvruli saerTaSoriso samarTliT da<br />

maTi gageba sxvadasxva saxelmwifos Sida samarTalSi SeiZleba arsebiTad<br />

gansxvavdebodes. amasTan, aRiarebis or <strong>for</strong>mas Soris sazRvari gaurkveveli<br />

rCeba.<br />

zogadi gagebiT, samarTlebrivi Sedegebis moculoba de faqto aRiarebis<br />

SemTxvevaSi naklebia, vidre de iure aRiarebisas. magaliTad, de faqto<br />

aRiarebisas ar SeiZleba am saxelmwifosTan diplomatiuri urTierTobebis<br />

damyareba, magram SeiZleba damyardes sakonsulo urTierToba.<br />

de faqto aRiarebis SemTxvevaSi laparaki SeiZleba iyos faqtobrivi<br />

xelisuflebis ara mxolod samoqalaqo-samarTlebrivi an municipaluri<br />

aqtebis aRiarebaze, rac SesaZlebelia aRiarebis raime <strong>for</strong>mis gareSec, aramed<br />

am xelisuflebis mier gamocemuli samoqalaqo samarTlis aqtebis aRiarebazec.<br />

125

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aRiarebis ori <strong>for</strong>mis gamijvnis safuZvelSi devs suverenitetis gagebis<br />

diferenciacia 200 . es SeiZleba gulisxmobdes, erTi mxriv, saxelmwifos uflebas<br />

ama Tu im teritoriis flobaze da, meore mxriv, _ iurisdiqciis faqtobriv<br />

ganxorcielebas garkveul teritoriaze (mis marTvas) ama Tu im xelisuflebis<br />

mier.<br />

im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac teritoriis faqtobriv marTvas axorcielebs<br />

saxelmwifo, romelsac miniWebuli aqvs am marTvis ufleba, aRiarebis sakiTxi<br />

ar dgas. im SemTxvevebSi ki, rodesac mocemul saxelmwifos ar SeuZlia marTos<br />

sadavo teritoria, saerTaSoriso praqtika icnobs magaliTebs, rodesac<br />

faqtobrivi xelisuflebis de faqto aRiareba misadagebulia mocemuli<br />

teritoriis im saxelmwifos de iure flobis uflebebis aRiarebasTan, romlis<br />

uflebac aRiarebulia, magram romelsac ar SeuZlia (droebiT) Sesabamisi<br />

teritoriis marTva.<br />

amgvar magaliTebTan dakavSirebiT arsebobs Tezisi, rom arsebuli stabiluri<br />

xelisuflebis aRiareba im teritoriaze, romlis mflobeladac sxva<br />

saxelmwifoa aRiarebuli, warmoadgens uxeS Carevas am ukanasknelis saqmeebSi.<br />

Tumca, aseTi Tvalsazrisi SeiZleba sadavo iyos: rodesac saxelmwifos ar<br />

gaaCnia sadavo teritoriaze sakuTari iurisdiqciis ganxorcielebis<br />

faqtobrivi SesaZlebloba, Sesabamisad, ar SeuZlia efeqturad warmoadginos am<br />

teritoriis mosaxleobis interesebi saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi.<br />

aseve mniSvnelovania gaviTvaliswinoT, rom aRiarebis aqti, rogorc de iure,<br />

aseve de faqto aRiarebis SemTxvevaSi, uciloblad ar gulisxmobs Sesabamis<br />

gancxadebebs. aRiareba SeiZleba ubralod moxdes Sesabamis saxelmwifosTan<br />

garkveuli urTierTobebis damyarebiT, magaliTad, masTan SeTanxmebebis da<br />

TanamSromlobasTan da praqtikul urTierTqmedebasTan dakavSirebuli sxva<br />

xelSekrulebebis dadebis gziT.<br />

Cven mier ganxiluli problemis konteqstSi saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT kidev<br />

sami garemoeba.<br />

saxelmwifos monawileoba ama Tu im saerTaSoriso organizaciaSi ar niSnavs am<br />

organizaciis yvela wevris mier mis de iure aRiarebas. aRiarebis aqtad miiCneva<br />

mxolod aSkara gamosvla ama Tu im organizaciaSi araRiarebuli saxelmwifos<br />

gawevrianebis mxardasaWerad 201 .<br />

aseve ar miiCneva saerTaSoriso-samarTlebriv aRiarebad ama Tu im saxelmwifos<br />

monawileoba saerTaSoriso SeTanxmebebsa da xelSekrulebebSi. piriqiT,<br />

aRiarebis deklaratiuli Teoriis konteqstSi mniSvnelovan instrumentad<br />

miCneulia araRiarebul saxelmwifoTa CarTuloba saxelSekrulebosamarTlebriv<br />

urTierTobebSi, rac im saxelmwifoebsac ki, romlebic am<br />

ukanasknels ar aRiarebs, saSualebas aZlevs araRiarebel saxelmwifos<br />

saerTaSoriso valdebulebebis Sesruleba mosTxovos.<br />

dabolos, miuxedavad imisa, rom lisabonis xelSekruleba ZalaSi Sevida,<br />

evrokavSiris mier ama Tu im saxelmwifos aRiarebas (evrokavSiris aseT<br />

saxelmwifosTan raime saxis urTierTobaSi Sesvla) ar mosdevs am saxelmwifos<br />

evrokavSiris wevri qveynebis mier aRiareba.<br />

200 Ralf Wilde, Recognition in International Law, das. naSr. gv. 2–3.<br />

201 amasTan, rogorc wesi, miCneulia, rom gaeroSi saxelmwifos Sesvla ganixileba am<br />

saxelmwifos saerTaSoriso-samarTlebrivi aRiarebis aqtad. magram saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi<br />

aseT SemTxvevaSic yofila gamonaklisi _ 1973 wels gaeroSi erTdroulad miiRes germaniis<br />

federaciuli respublika da germaniis demokratiuli respublika da Tanac, gfr-isa da gdr-is<br />

urTierTobebs safuZvlad edo rTuli <strong>for</strong>ma de faqto da ara de iure aRiarebisa.<br />

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saerTaSoriso praqtika icnobs aRiarebis kidev erT <strong>for</strong>mas _ ad hoc aRiarebas.<br />

am SemTxvevaSi laparakia im magaliTebze, rodesac saxelmwifoebi da maTi<br />

xelisuflebebi erTmaneTTan urTierTobas amyareben raime konkretuli<br />

praqtikuli sakiTxebis gadasaWrelad ise, rom erTmaneTs arc de iure da arc de<br />

faqto ar aRiareben.<br />

am dros laparaki SeiZleba iyos praqtikuli sakiTxebis gadaWraze, magaliTad,<br />

transportis an sxva komunikaciebis, satelefono da safosto kavSirebis<br />

mxardaWeraze da ekonomikuri, kulturuli da sportuli kontaqtebis<br />

ganviTarebazec ki. saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi arsebobs iseT saxelmwifoebs<br />

Soris dadebuli xelSekrulebebis magaliTebic, romlebic erTmaneTs arc ki<br />

aRiareben.<br />

gansazRvrebis mixedviT, ad hoc aRiareba iZleva kidev ufro mcire masStabis<br />

samarTlebriv Sedegebs, vidre de faqto aRiareba. Tumca sazRvari aRiarebis am<br />

or <strong>for</strong>mas Soris kidev ufro naklebadaa gansazRvruli, vidre de iure da de<br />

faqto aRiarebebs Soris.<br />

Cven mier ganxilul SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba rogorc konfliqtis mxareebis mier<br />

erTmaneTis aRiarebis, ise saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis mier afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis ad hoc aRiarebis konstatireba.<br />

es daskvna ZiriTadad efuZneba Jenevis molaparakebebis msvlelobas, rodesac<br />

ganixileba mxareTa gamyof xazze incidentebis eskalaciis Tavidan acilebasTan<br />

dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi, romlebic exeba TanamSormlobas, ltolvilTa an<br />

iZulebiT gadaadgilebul pirTa (samarTlebrivi poziciis mixedviT)<br />

dabrunebasa da sxva.<br />

ad hoc aRiarebaze metyvelebs sagzao mimosvlis, eleqtro- da gazmomaragebisa<br />

da sxva sferoebSi TanamSormlobis faqtebi.<br />

ukanasknelma orma welma aCvena, rom ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobis<br />

normalizaciasTan dakavSirebuli amocanebis mosagvareblad, imisaTvis, rom<br />

ga<strong>for</strong>mdes modus vivendi (modus vivendi), romelic grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi ar<br />

daxuravda saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis sakiTxs,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis teritoriaze saerTaSoriso organizaciebis<br />

moRvaweobis uzrunvelyofisTvis, kontaqtebis SenarCunebisa da iseT<br />

sakiTxebSi gamosavlis ZiebisTvis, rogoricaa evropaSi Cveulebriv<br />

SeiaraRebul Zalebze kontrolis aRdgena an ruseTis msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciaSi Sesvla, ad hoc aRiareba ar aris sakmarisi.<br />

amrigad, am da sxva sakiTxebis praqtikuli gadawyvetisTvis qveynebma, romlebic<br />

ar aRiareben afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTs de iure, maT Soris saqarTvelomac,<br />

ar unda gamoricxon maTi de faqto aRiarebis varianti, Tuki ar gamodian<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareobis Tvalsawier momavalSi gadalaxvis perspeqtividan da<br />

im daSvebidan, rom qveynebi, romelTac aRiares afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi,<br />

uaxloes momavalSi gadaxedaven sakuTar gadawyvetilebas. Tumca, Cveni<br />

varaudiT, amgvari gadawyvetileba realisturad ver miiCneva.<br />

modus vivendis politikuri aspeqtebi<br />

afxazeTis, pirvel rigSi, da, SesaZloa, samxreT oseTis de faqto aRiareba<br />

grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi saqarTveloSi konfliqtebis mogvarebis ufro did<br />

SesaZleblobas iZleva, vidre araRiarebis politikis an afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

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oseTis xelisuflebebTan ad hoc-is safuZvelze kontaqtebis SenarCunebis<br />

dabalprofiliani politikis gagrZeleba.<br />

Cveni azriT, es Tezisi sayuradReboa, radgan 2008 wlis Semdeg Seqmnili<br />

viTarebidan gamomdinare uperspeqtivoa politika, romelic moelis, rom<br />

ruseTma SeiZleba maleve gadaxedos sakuTar gadawyvetilebas orive<br />

warmonaqmnis aRiarebasTan dakavSirebiT. aseve uperspeqtivoa afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis reintegraciisa da saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis<br />

aRdgenisaken mimarTuli politika.<br />

4.1. Tuki miRebuli iqneba gadawyvetileba orive warmonaqmnis de faqto<br />

aRiarebis Sesaxeb, es gadawyvetileba unda miiRon qveynebma, romlebic maT ar<br />

aRiarebdnen, pirvel rigSi ki _ saqarTvelom.<br />

aseTi gadawyvetilebis miReba ioli ar iqneba, miuxedavad imisa, rom de faqto<br />

aRiareba ar niSnavs axali status-kvos ratifikacias da ar sTxovs<br />

saxelmwifoebs, uari Tqvan axl<strong>and</strong>el samarTlebriv poziciebze, rac imaSi<br />

mdgomareobs, rom afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi de iure saqarTvelos nawilebia.<br />

magram uaris Tqma xelisuflebebTan urTierobaze, romlebic faqtobrivad<br />

marTaven afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTs, mxolod arTulebs Seqmnil<br />

mdgomareobas, xels uwyobs `alyaSemortymuli cixesimagris~ mentalitetis<br />

gamyarebas da Semgom urTierTgaucxoebas. am pirobebSi Zalian pataraa<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis saqarTvelosTan `Sezrdis~ raime hipoTeturi<br />

variantis albaToba.<br />

4.2. de faqto aRiarebis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis miReba gansakuTrebiT rTuli<br />

da mtkivneuli iqneba saqarTvelosTvis. es Tbilisisgan moiTxovs ara marto<br />

garkveuli sakanonmdeblo aqtebis, pirvel rigSi, okupirebuli teritoriebis<br />

Sesaxeb kanonis, gadaxedvas, aramed imis gacnobierebasac, rom Tuki qveynis<br />

teritoriuli mTlianoba odesme aRdgeba, es ar iqneba male da amas, albaT,<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>eli Taoba ver moeswreba; Tuki teritoriuli mTlianoba mainc<br />

aRdgeba, es ar moxdeba afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis saqarTvelosTan<br />

`mierTebis~ gziT; Tuki integracia raime <strong>for</strong>miT mainc moxdeba, es SeiZleba<br />

iyos mxolod afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis nebayoflobiTi gadawyvetileba.<br />

Tvalsawier perspeqtivaSi aseTi rezultati rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis<br />

normalizaciis gareSe SeuZleblad gveCveneba.<br />

amasTanave, Tbilisis politikis kardinaluri cvlilebebi naklebad<br />

mosalodnelia dRev<strong>and</strong>eli xelisuflebis pirobebSi da ara marto imitom, rom<br />

es xelisufleba sakuTari Zveli gadawyvetilebebisa da doqtrinebis tyveobaSi<br />

imyofeba, romelTa gadaxedvisTvisac maincdamainc 2008 wlis agvistos omis<br />

magvari politikuri Sokia saWiro.<br />

aseTi dramatuli gadawyvetilebebis miReba aucileblad iwvevs sazogadoebis<br />

polarizebas da moiTxovs ara mxolod did politikur da samoqalaqo simamaces,<br />

aramed, rogorc wesi, SesaZlebelia mxolod xelisuflebis Secvlisa da qveynis<br />

xelmZRvenelobaSi iseTi politikosebis mosvlis Sedegad, romlebic ar arian<br />

dakavSirebuli winamorbedi xelmZRvanelobis gadawyvetilebebTan da<br />

SecdomebTan.<br />

sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, uaxloes wlebSi Tbilisis politikis mkveTr gadaxedvas<br />

ar unda velodoT. amitom, rogorc Cans, dReisaTvis praqtikuli amocana unda<br />

iyos afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis de faqto aRiarebis sajarod gamotana da<br />

ganxilva, yvela plusisa da minusis Sefaseba, rac aseTma gadawyvetilebam<br />

SeiZleba moutanos qveyanas.<br />

128

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4.3. aucilebloba, rom sazogadoebam politikaSi amgvari Semotrialebis<br />

mizanSewoniloba scnos, gulisxmobs imasac, rom de faqto aRiarebis nebismieri<br />

<strong>for</strong>ma, iqneba es gancxadebebi, Sesabamisi SeTanxmebebis dadeba, TanamSromlobis<br />

dawyeba, aseve, sakonsulo urTierTobebis damyareba Tu mudmivi<br />

warmomadgenlobebis gacvla, ar warmoadgens Tanadroul aqts da<br />

dakavSriebulia mravali praqtikuli problemis gadaWrasTan, maT Soris,<br />

mSobliur adgilebSi usafrTxo dabrunebis msurveli ltolvilebisa da<br />

iZulebiT gadaadgilebuli pirebis kanonieri uflebebis aRiarebasTan.<br />

es aseve SeiZleba ukavSiredebodes ara mxolod saqarTvelos, aramed<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis politikisa da kanonmdeblobis cvlilebebs.<br />

garda amisa, es SesaZloa da unda ukavSirdebodes kidec konfliqtis zonebSi<br />

daZabulobis Sesustebasa da viTarebis demilitarizacias, rac konfliqtis<br />

zonebSi mainc gauxsnis gzas SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da SeiaraRebis Semcirebas,<br />

xolo perspeqtivaSi dakavSirebulia ndobis gamyarebisa da SeiaraRebaze<br />

kontrolisa da usafrTxoebis regionuli reJimis SemoRebasTan.<br />

dabolos, saqarTvelos urTierTobebis normalizacias ruseTTan, afxazeTTan<br />

da samxreT oseTTan, romelic daemyareba Zalis gamoyenebaze orive mxaris uars,<br />

SeuZlia Seqmnas da unda Seqmnas kidec pirobebi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis<br />

_ evrokavSiris, gaerosa da euTos _ moRvaweobis gasafarToeblad, aseve<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis teritoriazec.<br />

4.4. de faqto (da ara de iure) aRiareba, raRa Tqma unda, ar aris is Sedegi,<br />

romlis miRwevasac afxazeTi, samxreT oseTi da ruseTi cdiloben. TumcaRa<br />

sakiTxis droebiTi gadawyveta maTi TvalsazrisisTvisac ufro misaRebi unda<br />

iyos, dRev<strong>and</strong>eli viTarebis gaTvaliswinebiT, Tuki ara aqvT uaxloes an, yovel<br />

SemTxvevaSi, arcTu ise Soreul momavalSi diplomatiuri garRvevisa da<br />

masobrivi saerTaSoriso-samarTlebrivi aRiarebis imedi.<br />

de faqto aRiareba da modus vivendis ga<strong>for</strong>meba afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTs<br />

aniWebs garkveul upiratesobas da SesaZleblobas, ifiqron, rom aseTi<br />

droebiTi gadawyvetileba srulfasovani aRiarebisken gadadgmuli nabijia.<br />

Znelia winaswar gamoTvalo im kompromisis xasiaTi da konkretuli parametrebi,<br />

rac dainteresebuli mxareebis interesTa balansis gamoxatvis SesaZleblobas<br />

mogvcems. es unda iqces konkretuli, oficialuri da araoficialuri,<br />

molaparakebebis sagnad.<br />

amasTan, Tavad kompromisis SesaZleblobis ganxilvis faqti eqspertebisa da<br />

politikosebis mier, sazogadoebasa Tu saxelisuflebo struqturebSi, unda<br />

gaxdes TanamSromlobis sawindari da unda SeaCeros mxareTa Semdgomi<br />

daSoriSoreba.<br />

rekomendaciebi<br />

saqarTvelos urTierTobis normalizacia afxazeTTan, samxreT oseTTan da<br />

ruseTTan<br />

5.1. ukanaskneli wlebisa da Tveebis diskusiebis gaTvaliswinebiT afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis de faqto aRiarebis bunebrivi <strong>for</strong>ma iqneboda saqarTvelos<br />

mier maTTan Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis (an SeTanxmebebis)<br />

dadeba.<br />

5.2. radganac ruseTis federacia sakuTar Tavs konfliqtis mxared ar<br />

ganixilavs, amitom es rTuli sakiTxi SeiZleba mogvardes ruseTsa da<br />

saqarTvelos Soris Zalis gamouyeneblobis Sesaxeb calke SeTanxmebis dadebiT.<br />

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5.3. mxareTa interesebis balansis uzrunvelsayofad qarTul-afxazuri da<br />

qarTul-samxreTosuri SeTanxmeba, cxadia, ver iqneba mxolod Zalis<br />

gamouyeneblobis sakiTxisadmi miZRvnili. SeTanxmebebi aseve unda Seicavdes<br />

sxva viTarebebs, kerZod, politikuri dialogis ganviTarebis, savaWroekonomikuri<br />

da satransporto TanamSromlobis, samoqalaqo sazogadoebis<br />

organizaciebs Soris dialogis, adamianebs Soris kontaqtisa da in<strong>for</strong>maciis<br />

gacvlis xelSewyobis problemebs. ama Tu im <strong>for</strong>miT es SeTanxmebebi gverds ver<br />

auvlian mSobliur adgilebSi im adamianebis dabrunebis sakiTxs, romlebic<br />

iZulebuli gaxdnen gaqceodnen saomar moqmedebebs da visac mudmiv<br />

sacxovrebel adgilebSi dabruneba unda. aseTi SeTanxmebebis konkretuli<br />

Sinaarsi damokidebuli iqneba molaparakebebis Sedegebze, rac TavisTavad<br />

SeiZleba gaxdes biZgi mxareTa Soris urTierTobis mogvarebisTvis.<br />

5.4. mudmivi politikuri dialogisa da regularuli komunikaciis xelSewyobis<br />

mizniT mxareebs SeuZliaT mudmivi warmomadgenlebis gacvla.<br />

5.5. konfliqtis mxareebs aseve SeuZliaT Seadginon momavali dialogis dRis<br />

wesrigi, sadac Seva xelSekruleba ndobis arasaomari zomebis Sesaxeb, gamyofi<br />

xazis gaswvriv demilitarizacia, SeiaraRebis kontrolis regionuli reJimis<br />

Camoyalibeba.<br />

evrokavSiris mier afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan urTierTobis damyareba<br />

5.6. evrokavSiris programebis ganxorcielebaze koordinaciisaTvis soxumsa da<br />

cxinvalSi evrokavSiris ofisebis gaxsna, romlebic, SesaZloa, vizebis<br />

ga<strong>for</strong>mebasTan dakavSirebul sakonsulo funqciebsac ikisreben da aseve orive<br />

warmonaqmnSi sain<strong>for</strong>macio centris rols Seasruleben. amasTan, evrokavSiris<br />

mxridan afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan pirdapiri urTierTobebis damyareba<br />

ar niSnavs evrokavSiris wevr saxelmwifoTa mier maT de iure aRiarebas.<br />

5.7. afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi evrokavSiris proeqtebis dafinansebis<br />

SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis miReba soxumisa da cxinvalis ofisebis<br />

gavliT da ara saqarTvelos gavliT.<br />

5.8. es SeTanxmebebi unda gulisxmobdes EUMM-is moRvaweobis zonis<br />

gafarToebas, yovel SemTxvevaSi, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sasazRvro<br />

xazis mimdebare teritoriebze mainc.<br />

euTos dabruneba regionSi<br />

5.9. evrokavSirs da afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTs Soris urTierTobebis<br />

dalageba SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos regionSi euTos moRvaweobis<br />

ganaxlebasTan. imisaTvis, rom gverdi avuqcioT misiis saxelwodebis saTuT<br />

sakiTxs, SeiZleba mivideT euTos sami ofisis dafuZnebamde (TbilisSi, soxumsa<br />

da cxinvalSi), romlebic administraciulad daemorCilebian euTos<br />

konfliqtebis acilebis moqmed centrs, xolo politikur xelmZRvanelobas maT<br />

moqmedi Tavmjdomare gauwevs.<br />

alternatiuli variantis saxiT SeiZleba ganvixiloT samxreT kavkasiaSi euTos<br />

misiis Semoyvana xuTi centriT (baqoSi, erevanSi, soxumSi, Tbilissa da<br />

cxinvalSi), romlis Stab-binac saqarTvelos farglebs gareT iqneba.<br />

5.10. amgvari gadawyvetilebis momzadebasa da miRebas SeiZleba moeTxova<br />

afxazeTisa da, SesaZloa, samxreT oseTis euToSi Sesvla Tu ara, raime<br />

regularuli <strong>for</strong>miT konsultatiuri monawileoba (mudmiv sabWoze maTi<br />

monawileebis mowveviT an sityvis uflebis mqone damkvirveblebis saxiT) mainc<br />

im sakiTxebis ganxilvisas, romlebic samxreT kavkasiis regions ukavSirdeba.<br />

130

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ori oseTi qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis konteqstSi<br />

131<br />

ivliane xaindrava<br />

samxreTkavkasiuri kvlevebis programis direqtori,<br />

saqarTvelos respublikuri instituti<br />

2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos omisa da ruseTis federaciis mier samxreT<br />

oseTis damoukideblobis aRiarebis Semdeg marTlac rom paradoqsuli<br />

viTareba Seiqmna: CrdiloeT oseTis respublika — alania, romelic rogorc<br />

teritoriiTa da mosaxleobiT, ise ekonomikuri potencialiTa da resursebiT<br />

mravaljer aRemateba samxreT oseTs, kvlavindeburad ruseTis federaciis 83<br />

subieqtidan erT-erTTagania, xolo samxreT oseTi „nawilobriv aRiarebul<br />

saxelmwifod“ iqca. amasTan, Tavis amJamindel mdgomareobaSi samxreT oseTi ara<br />

mxolod saqarTvelos (romelic ar apirebs omisSemdgom realiebTan Seguebas),<br />

aramed ruseTsac mTlianobaSi da, gansakuTrebiT, mis Crdilokavkasiur<br />

subieqtebs mosvenebas ar aZlevs. damajerebeli pasuxi kiTxvaze, Tu ratom<br />

„SeiZleba“ samxreT oseTisTvis, magram „ar SeiZleba“, magaliTad, CeCneTisTvis,<br />

daRestnisTvis an TaTarstanisTvis, ar arsebobs 202 . aqedan gamomdinare, samxreT<br />

oseTis precedenti kidev didxans aamRvrevs viTarebas rogorc samxreT, ise<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi (gamoricxuli araa _ ufro Sorsac) da am isedac<br />

mSfoTvare regions stabilurobis faqtorad namdvilad ver moevlineba.<br />

amgvarad, 2008 wlis agvistos Semdgomi axali status—kvos droiT<br />

perspeqtivaSi mdgradobaze saubaric ki zedmetia. im faqtma, rom arsebuli<br />

viTareba naklebad aZlevs xels romelime mxares (separatistebisa da/an<br />

iredentistebis garda), unda ubiZgos maT imgvari gadawyvetilebis Ziebisken,<br />

romelic minimumamde daiyvans destabilizaciis riskebs „osuri“<br />

mimarTulebiT, kerZod, da regionis masStabiT — mTlianobaSi.<br />

202 ix. mag.: А. Малашенко: Северный Кавказ: когда закончилась война, Pro et Contra, #5-6, 2008<br />

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/TwoCrisesConsequences<strong>and</strong>Outlook.pdf

---

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika _<br />

alanias konstitucia<br />

Tavi1. konstituciuri wyobis<br />

safuZvlebi<br />

muxli 1<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika —<br />

alania aris demokratiuli<br />

samrTlebrivi saxelmwifo, romelic<br />

gamoxatavs misi mravalerovani<br />

mosaxleobis nebasa da interesebs.<br />

muxli 4<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika —<br />

alania saxelmwifo xelisuflebas<br />

Tavis teritoriaze axorcielebs<br />

mTeli sisruliT, ruseTis<br />

federaciisTvis gadacemuli<br />

uflebamosilebebis garda.<br />

muxli15<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika _<br />

alanias saxelmwifo enebia osuri da<br />

rusuli.<br />

muxli 16<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika —<br />

alania samxreT oseTis<br />

respublikasTan urTierTobebs<br />

eTnikuri, nacionaluri,<br />

istoriul-teritoriuli<br />

erTianobis, socialur-ekonomikuri<br />

da kulturuli integraciis<br />

safuZvelze amyarebs.<br />

132<br />

samxreT oseTis respublikis<br />

konstitucia<br />

Tavi1. konstituciuri wyobis<br />

safuZvlebi<br />

muxli 1<br />

samxreT oseTis respublika aris<br />

suverenuli demokratiuli<br />

samarTlebrivi saxelmwifo, romelic<br />

Seiqmna samxreT oseTis xalxis<br />

TviTgamorkvevis Sedegad.<br />

muxli 4<br />

1. samxreT oseTis respublikis<br />

saxelmwifo ena aris osuri.<br />

2. rusuli ena osurTan erTad, xolo<br />

samxreT oseTis respublikis<br />

qarTuli erovnebis moqalaqeebiT<br />

kompaqturad dasaxlebul adgilebSi<br />

— qarTuli, oficialur enabadaa<br />

aRiarebuli...<br />

muxli 8<br />

samxreT oseTis respublika<br />

CrdiloeT oseTis respublika _<br />

alaniasTan urTierTobebs eTnikuri,<br />

nacionaluri, istoriulteritoriuli,socialurekonomikuri<br />

da kulturuli<br />

integraciis safuZvelze amyarebs.<br />

teritoria: 8 aTasi kv.km. teritoria: 3,9 aTasi kv.km.<br />

mosaxleoba: 713 aTasi 203 . mosaxleoba: 30-32 aTass ar<br />

aRemateba 204 .<br />

omis Semdgomi gzajvaredini<br />

* * *<br />

2008 wlis 26 agvistos, ruseT-saqarTvelos omis dasrulebis Sesaxeb<br />

SeTanxmebis ga<strong>for</strong>mebidan ori kviris Tavze, ruseTis federaciam samxreT<br />

oseTis [da afxazeTis] damoukidebloba aRiara; imave wlis seqtemberSi mas<br />

nikaraguam mibaZa, xolo momdevno wels — venesuelam da naurum. saqarTvelos<br />

secesionisturi regionebis saerTaSoriso aRiarebis procesi aq, TumcaRa,<br />

gaiyina: „oTxTa klubs“ mas Semdeg arc erTi axali wevri aRar Sematebia.<br />

203<br />

ruseTis federaciis mosaxleobis aRweris winaswari Sedegebi. http://www.perepis-2010.ru/messagerosstat.php<br />

204<br />

samxreT oseTis omisSemdgomi mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan dakavSirebiT monacemebi<br />

gansxvavebulia; mogvyavs am Temaze napovni yvelaze safuZvliani kvlevis Sedegebi: В. Пахоменко:<br />

Обитаемый остров, Центр "Демос". http://www.polit.ru/analytics/2009/09/22/demo.html

---

„araRiarebis“ politika saqarTvelosa da dasavleTis (agreTve saxelmwifoTa<br />

udidesi umravlesobis) am problemisadmi midgomis qvakuTxedi gaxda.<br />

afxazeTisgan gansxvavebiT, romelic Tavisi SesaZleblobebis farglebSi<br />

maqsimalurad aqtiurobs sagareo-politikur asparezze da venesuelaSi<br />

saelCoc ki gaxsna, samxreT oseTis xelisuflebas msgavsi ganzraxvebi ar<br />

gamouvlenia, Tu ar CavTvliT ruseTis federaciasTan ormxrivi diplomatiuri<br />

urTierTobebis <strong>for</strong>malurad damyarebas.<br />

metic _ 2008 wlis 11 seqtembers q. soWSi, sadiskusio klub „valdais“<br />

monawileebTan Sexvedrisas, samxreT oseTis xelmZRvanelma eduard kokoiTim<br />

ganacxada: Cven SevalT ruseTis federaciaSi da ar vapirebT raRac<br />

damoukidebeli oseTis Seqmnaso. es arcTu ise sensaciuri gancxadeba ZalaSi,<br />

sul raRac, oriod saaTi Tu darCa: rogorc Cans, „damoukidebeli samxreT<br />

oseTis respublikis“ prezidents msgavsi gulwrfeli da araSorsmWvreteluri<br />

gamonaTqvamis dauSvebloba operatiulad da gasagebad auxsnes. amitom<br />

sxdomaTa darbazidan gamosulma e. kokoiTim Seaswora sakuTari naTqvami:<br />

etyoba, araswored gamiges. Cven ar vapirebT uaris Tqmas Cvens<br />

damoukideblobaze, romelic auracxeli msxverplis fasad movipoveT da<br />

samxreT oseTi ruseTis SemadgenlobaSi Sesvlas ar apirebso 205 . Tuki<br />

gavixsenebT samxreT oseTis xelmZRvanelis 2006 w. ivnisis gancxadebasac imis<br />

Taobaze, TiTqos „samxreT oseTi arasdros gasula ruseTis federaciis<br />

Semadgenlobidan“ 206 , viTareba, e. kokoiTis mixedviT, „martivad gasagebia“:<br />

samxreT oseTs, romelsac, Turme, arasdros dautovebia ruseTis federaciis<br />

Semadgenloba, auracxeli msxverplis fasad moupovebia damoukidebloba da<br />

ruseTis federaciis SemadgenlobaSi Sesvla gadauwyvitavs...<br />

vimedovnebT, rom mkiTxveli didsulovnad Segvindobs wina abzacis erTgvarad<br />

araseriozul tons, radgan sinamdvileSi saqme Zalze seriozul sakiTxebs exeba.<br />

amis dasturad CrdiloeT oseTis respublika — alanias konstituciis me-16<br />

muxlisa da samxreT oseTis respublikis konstituciis me-8 muxlis moyvana<br />

SegviZlia (ix. zemoT). es muxlebi erTmaneTs sityva-sityviT imeoreben;<br />

Sesabamisad, adgils ucvlian erTmaneTs mxolod ori oseTis saxelwodebebi.<br />

amasTan, konstituciebSi bevri gansxvavebacaa, romelTa Soris yvelaze<br />

arsebiTi pirvelive Tavebis pirvelive muxlebis debulebebia: CrdiloeT<br />

oseTis respublika — alania demokratiuli samarTlebrivi saxelmwifoa, xolo<br />

samxreT oseTis respublika ki — suverenuli demokratiuli samarTlebrivi<br />

saxelmwifo. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT teritoriebisa da mosaxleobis monacemebs<br />

(CrdiloeT oseTi teritoriiT orjer, xolo mosaxleobiT, sul mcire, ocjer<br />

aRemeteba samxreT oseTs), ori oseTis <strong>for</strong>malur statusebs Soris arsebuli<br />

principuli sxvaoba kidev ufro gasaocaria.<br />

am erTob paradoqsuli viTarebis aRmocenebis mizezTa mTeli kompleqsis<br />

analizi scildeba mocemuli masalis farglebs. aq droulia gavixsenoT e.w.<br />

„taliavinis komisiis“ angariSis orad ori daskvna, rac samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis mimarT saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis konsolidirebuli<br />

poziciis safuZvels warmoadgens: 1. samxreT oseTs [da afxazeTs]<br />

saqarTvelosgan secesiis ufleba ar hqondaT; 2. [afxazeTisa da] samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiareba ewinaaRmdegeba saerTaSoriso samarTals 207 .<br />

miuxedavad imisa, rom komisiis m<strong>and</strong>atidan gamomdinare misi angariSi pirdapiri<br />

205 http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/46526/<br />

206 http://www.lenta.ru/articles/2008/09/11/yesno/<br />

207 http://www.ceiig.ch/Report.html t. 1, gv. 17; angariSis analizi, ix.: А. Язькова, И. Хаиндрава: Доклад<br />

миссии Тальявини: каждому свое? в сборнике статей Россия и Грузия: пути выхода из кризиса, под редакцией<br />

Г.Хуцишвили и Т.Гогелиани, МЦКП, Тбилиси, 2010, www.iccn.ge<br />

133

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politikur-samarTlebrivi Sedegebis dadgomas ar iTvaliswinebda, moyvanil<br />

debulebebTan mTavari saerTaSoriso aqtorebis ganWvretad momavalSi<br />

daSoreba naklebadaa mosalodneli. im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu droTa ganmavlobaSi<br />

„oTxTa klubi“ trans<strong>for</strong>mirdeba, vTqvaT, „rvaTa klubad“, saqmis arsi amiT ar<br />

Seicvleba. xolo Tavad ruseTis federacia, rogorc Cans, samxreT oseTis [da<br />

afxazeTis] Semdgomi aRiarebis uzrunvelsayofad zedmetad daZabvas sulac ar<br />

apirebs. 2011 wlis martSi, ruseTis federaciis dumaSi gamosvlisas, ruseTis<br />

sagareo saqmeTa ministris pirvelma moadgilem <strong>and</strong>rei denisovma ganacxada:<br />

Cven ar velodebiT samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis farTo aRiarebas; aseTia<br />

realoba 208 .<br />

axla vcadoT qarTul—rusuli urTierTobebis konteqstSi ori oseTis irgvliv<br />

arsebuli situaciis ganviTarebis SesaZlo veqtorebis dadgena. savaraudoa,<br />

rom maTi momavali bedi (yovel SemTxvevaSi, Teoriulad mainc) qvemoT<br />

moyvanili erT-erTi scenaris CarCoebSi ganisazRvreba:<br />

1. dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareobis SenarCuneba, roca gvaqvs „nawilobriv<br />

aRiarebuli saxelmwifo — samxreT oseTis respublika“ da ruseTis<br />

federaciis subieqti CrdiloeT oseTis respublika — alania.<br />

2. „aRiareba teritoriebis sanacvlod“ — saqarTvelos mxridan samxreT<br />

oseTis aRiareba axalgoris raionis qarTuli iurisdiqciis qveS<br />

dabrunebis sanacvlod (SesaZlebelia _ sxva teritoriebisac).<br />

3. samxreT oseTis saerTaSoriso aRiarebis procesis reanimacia da<br />

damoukidebeli saxelmwifos statusis ganmtkiceba.<br />

4. belorusis mier samxreT oseTis aRiareba da samxreT oseTis Sesvla<br />

mokavSire saxelmwifoSi 209 (aq CrdiloeT oseTTan dakavSirebiT<br />

SesaZlebelia variantebi).<br />

5. samxreT oseTis respublikis ruseTis federaciasTan mierTeba sxvadasxva<br />

<strong>for</strong>matSi:<br />

— asocirebuli samxreT oseTi da federaciis subieqti CrdiloeT<br />

oseTi;<br />

— federaciis subieqti samxreT oseTi da federaciis subieqti<br />

CrdiloeT oseTi (simetriuli an asimetriuli uflebamosilebebiT);<br />

— samxreT oseTisa da CrdiloeT oseTis gaerTianeba erTian oseTad —<br />

ruseTis federaciis subieqtad;<br />

— ruseTis federaciis SemadgenlobaSi gaerTianebuli oseTis sxva<br />

statusi.<br />

6. samxreT oseTis saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi dabruneba sxvadsxva<br />

<strong>for</strong>matSi:<br />

– konfederaciis subieqti;<br />

– orsubieqtiani federaciis subieqti;<br />

– mravalsubieqtiani federaciis subieqti;<br />

– avtonomia;<br />

– saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi samxreT oseTis sxva statusi.<br />

7. samxreT oseTis CrdiloeT oseTTan SeerTeba damoukideblobis<br />

sinqronuli (an momdevno) gamocxadebiTa da ruseTis federaciidan<br />

gamoyofiT (gaerTianebuli damoukidebeli saxelmwifo oseTis<br />

warmoqmna).<br />

8. samxreT oseTis teritoriaze qarTul-rusuli kondominiumi 210 .<br />

208 http://www.regnum.ru/news/fd-abroad/abxazia/1386918.html<br />

209 aseT SesaZleblobas uSvebs, magaliTad, А. Малашенко; ix.:<br />

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/TwoCrisesConsequences<strong>and</strong>Outlook.pdf<br />

210 es idea wamoayena s. aruTiunovma; ix. mag: http://noev-kovcheg.1gb.ru/article.asp?n=96&a=38<br />

134

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9. movlenebis sxvagvari ganviTareba (Znelad prognozirebadi SedegebiT).<br />

savaraudod, arsebobs sxva warmosaxviTi SesaZleblobebic, Tumca imisTvis,<br />

raTa analizi ar mowydes realobas, sqema ki ar unda gavarTuloT, aramed,<br />

piriqiT, unda gavamartivoT da sam „ZiriTad“ variantamde daviyvanoT. maS ase,<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>eli gaurkveveli mdgomareobidan samxreT oseTma SeiZleba samidan<br />

erT-erTis mimarTulebiT itivtivos:<br />

1. ruseTis federaciis SemadgenlobaSi Sesvlisken;<br />

2. erTiani damoukidebeli saxelmwifos Seqmnis mizniT CrdiloeT oseTTan<br />

gaerTianebisken;<br />

3. saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi dabrunebisken.<br />

ganvixiloT is garemoebebi, romelTa gamo dRev<strong>and</strong>eli viTareba<br />

daxasiaTebulia, rogorc „gaurkvevli“.<br />

gaurkvevlobis mdgomareobis zogierTi maxasiaTebeli<br />

saukuneebis manZilze evropaSi arseboben (da yvavian kidec) e.w. `juja<br />

saxelmwifoebi“ _ <strong>and</strong>ora (teritoria — 465 kv.km., mosaxleoba — 70 aTasi),<br />

lixtenStaini (160 kv.km., 35 aTasi), monako (2 kv.km., 35 aTasi), san-marino (60 kv.km., 30<br />

aTasi). TiToeulis mosaxleoba Tanazomadia samxreT oseTis faqtobrivi<br />

mosaxleobisa, xolo am ukanasknelis teritoria xuT-naxevarjer aRemateba<br />

xsenebuli juja saxelmwifoebis jamur teritorias. isini sxvadasxva drosa da<br />

sxvadsxva istoriul pirobebSi, xSirad _ ufro Zlevamosil mezobelTa Soris<br />

rTuli kompromisebis Sedegad warmoiqmnen da zog SemTxvevaSi am ukanasknelTa<br />

erToblivi proteqtoratis qveS imyofebian. TviTkmari arsebobisTvis resursebis<br />

arqonis gamo isini iseT momsaxurebas sTavazoben (upiratesad sagadasaxado<br />

sferosa da biznesis garemoSi), rac maT evropeli mezoblebisTvis mimzidvels<br />

xdis da sakuTar keTildReobasa da usafrTxoebas uzrunvelyofs.<br />

samxreT oseTis „damoukidebloba“ Sedegia ara kompromisisa, aramed konfliqtSi<br />

CarTuli yvela mxaris Zalismieri qmedebebisa, risi apoTeozic 2008 wels<br />

suverenuli saqarTvelos mimarT ruseTis samxedro intervencia gaxda. Zalis<br />

gamoyeneba iseve, rogorc misi gamoyenebis muqara, daubrundnen evropul<br />

politikas. saerTaSoriso samarTlis iseTi principebi, rogoricaa saxelmwifos<br />

suverenitetisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis pativiscema, ugulebelyofil iqna,<br />

— naTqvamia „taliavinis komisiis“ daskvnaSi 211 . ruseTis mier samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiareba calmxrivad moxda, saerTaSoriso asparezze wamyvanma<br />

moTamaSeebma (evrokavSiri, aSS, nato, evrosabWos saparlamento asamblea da sxv.)<br />

es faqti dagmes da ruseTis federaciam am sakiTxSi mxardaWera uaxloesi<br />

mokavSireebis mxridanac ki ver moipova (iqneba es dsT, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis<br />

SeTanxmebis organizacia Tu Sanxais TanamSromlobis organizacia). samxreT<br />

oseTis [da afxazeTis] irgvliv Seqmnili viTarebis asaxvisTvis evrokavSiri da aSS<br />

(saqarTvelos kvaldakval) termin „okupacias“ iyeneben 212 . am garemoebebSi samxreT<br />

oseTis „damoukidebeli saxelmwifos“ rangSi arsebobis erTaderTi garanti<br />

ruseTis federaciaa. aq paralelis gavleba CrdiloeT kviprosis TurqeTis<br />

respublikasTanaa SesaZlebeli, romlis damoukidebloba ai ukve TiTqmis ocdaaTi<br />

wlis manZilze mxolod TurqeTis calmxrivi aRiarebiTa da Sesabamisi samxedro<br />

uzrunvelyofiT suldgmulobs. Tumca dRemde CrdiloeT kviprosis irgvliv<br />

211 http://www.ceiig.ch/Report.html t.1, gv. 32.<br />

212 ix. evroparlamentis 2011 wlis 20 ianvris rezolucia, agreTve: Филип Гордон: США<br />

рассматривают действия РФ в Грузии как «оккупацию», 07.03.2011,<br />

http://www.voanews.com/<strong>russia</strong>n/news/Philip-Gordon-Speach-Georgia-2011-03-07-117538948.html<br />

135

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Seqmnil viTarebas saerTaSoriso sazogadoebrioba mogvarebulad rodi miiCnevs,<br />

rac politikurad azaralebs TurqeTs. amasTanave, kunZulis CrdiloeT nawilis<br />

mosaxleobis cxovrebis done bevrad CamorCeba misi samxreT nawilis (berZnulis)<br />

mosaxleobis cxovrebis dones, romelic evrokavSiris wevrobisgan miRebuli<br />

sikeTeebiT sargeblobs.<br />

samxreT oseTi rom ekonomikurad (an nebismieri sxva TvalsazrisiT) TviTkmari<br />

araa, sayovelTaod cnobilia. ai, ras wers amis Sesaxeb ukanasknel wlebSi aSS-Si<br />

moRvawe osi eqsperti v. Zucevi: ruseTze samxreT oseTis ekonomikuri<br />

damokidebuleba fasdeba TiTqmis 100%-iT. dResdReobiT saqarTvelosTan<br />

daxuruli sazRvrisa da sakuTari mrewvelobisa da momsaxurebis sferos arqonis<br />

pirobebSi, respublikas Semosavlis aranairi sakuTari wyaro ar gaaCnia. xolo<br />

kerZo sakuTrebisa da investiciebis garantiebis ararseboba respublikas sxva<br />

SesaZlebel Semosavlebsac arTmevs 213 . amasTan dakavSirebiT jer kidev 2008 wlis<br />

dekemberSi a. malaSenko werda, rom ruseTis mier samxreT oseTis aRiarebam<br />

realiebis aRqma Secvala; pirvel rigSi es osebis uSualo mezoblebSi moxda: Tu<br />

manamde moskovis daxmareba erovnuli moZraobis mxardaWerad miiCneoda, axla<br />

samxreT oseTi ganixileba konkurentad, romelic mniSvnelovani saxsrebis<br />

Tavisken gadaqaCvas eweva (rasac, sxvaTa Soris, jerjerobiT bolo ar uCans), xolo<br />

centris dotaciaze axali pretendentebis gamoCena gaamZafrebs metoqeobas mzis<br />

qveS sakuTari adgilis _ finansuri resursebisa da „batonis keTilganwyobis“ _<br />

mosapoveblad 214 .<br />

v. Zucevi fiqrobs, rom orive oseTs aqvs keTildReobis miRwevis Sansi, rogorc<br />

minimum, erTi aucilebeli pirobiT _ Tuki isini ki ar gayofen, aramed<br />

SeakavSireben kavkasiis CrdiloeTsa da samxreTs 215 . aq upirvelesad saubaria<br />

transkavkasiur saavtomobilo gzaze, romelic Tavis mniSvnelobas arsebiTad<br />

kargavs im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki mxolod samxreT oseTis teritoriaze ruseTis<br />

jarisa da mesazRvreebis mosamarageblad gamoiyeneba; ruseTsa da saqarTvelos<br />

Soris dRev<strong>and</strong>eli urTierTobebis gaTvaliswinebiT ki mas sxva [ekonomikuri]<br />

funqcia praqtikulad ar gaaCnia. dabolos, samxreT oseTSi adamianuri resursi,<br />

rogorc Cans, kritikul niSnuls qveviTaa: sapasuxismgeblo Tanamdebobebze<br />

samuSaod sakuTari kadrebis ukmarisobis gamo mTavrobis wevrebis ruseTidan<br />

„importireba“ Cveulebrivi ambavia. mosaxleobis migraciis sferoSi dinamika<br />

uaryofiTia 216 da CrdiloeT oseTi, romelic ufro met SesaZleblobas sTavazobs<br />

adamianebs (Tumca TviTonac Sorsaa keTildReobisgan) samxreT oseTis<br />

mkvidrTaTvis mimzidvelia. es maTac exeba, visac uWirs e. kokoiTis reJimTan<br />

Segueba politikuri motivebiT.<br />

bundovania, Tu ris xarjzea SesaZlebeli ganWvretad momavalSi viTarebis<br />

ukeTesobisken Secvla. marTalia, saqarTvelo samxreT oseTs okupirebuli<br />

teritoriebis mimarT saxelmwifo strategiis „CarTuloba TanamSromlobis gziT“<br />

da Sesabamisi samoqmedo gegmis 217 farglebSi Tavis ekonomikur, socialur,<br />

kulturul da saganmanaTleblo sivrces sTavazobs, magram osuri (da rusuli)<br />

mxare gulgrilia am SeTavazebis mimarT. amas imiT xsnian, rom saqarTvelo am<br />

strategiis realizebiT samxreT oseTis reintegracias isaxavs miznad, ra<br />

perspeqtivasac meore mxare imTaviTve uaryofs. qarTuli strategiisgan<br />

213<br />

В. Дзуцев: Южная Осетия становится гипертрофированным регионом Северного Кавказа, 05.06.2009,<br />

http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/155020/<br />

214<br />

А. Малашенко Северный Кавказ: когда закончилась война<br />

215 В. Дзуцев: Северный Кавказ: от клубка противоречий на периферии - к овладению собственной<br />

судьбой, 19.11.2010, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/177235/<br />

216<br />

В. Пахоменко: Обитаемый остров<br />

217 http://www.smr.gov.ge/ru/home<br />

136

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„Tavdasacavad“ samxreT oseTsa da danarCen saqarTvelos Soris gamyofi xazis<br />

gamagreba mimdinareobs, kontaqtebi am xazis orive mxares mcxovreb adamianebs<br />

Soris minimumamdea dayvanili, rasac ori sazogadoebis T<strong>and</strong>aTanobiT<br />

gaucxoebasa da gamijvnasTan mivyavarT. Tavis mxriv, am procesSi wvlili<br />

saqarTvelosac Seaqvs, rac mTavrobis mier mkacri wesebis 218 SemoRebaSi<br />

gamovlinda, romelTa meSveobiTac okupirebul teritoriebze yvela saxis<br />

komerciuli da arakomerciul saqmianobis regulirebaa ganzraxuli. es wesebi<br />

strategiaSi deklarirebuli miznebis miRwevas aramc da aramc ar uwyoben xels.<br />

asea Tu ise, magram samxreT oseTi swrafad da ramenairi mkafio perspeqtivis<br />

gareSe ruseTis militarizebul anklavad, satransporto Cixad da finansur „Sav<br />

xvrelad“ iqceva. amdenad, „evropuli jujebis“ msgavs erTeulad gadaqcevis<br />

Sansebic (Tuki vinme amgvari imediT sazrdoobda) ar Cans. miuxedavad imisa, rom s.<br />

markedonovi, magaliTad, miiCnevs, rom Seqmnil viTarebaSi samxreT oseTis<br />

„Sualeduri“ statusi („nawilobriv aRiarebuli respublika“) sxva nebismier<br />

gadawyvetilebas sjobs 219 , mocemuli mdgomareoba ar SeiZleba ganvixiloT,<br />

rogorc mdgradi droiT perspeqtivaSi. amgvari ganwyoba ukve aisaxa ruseTSi<br />

Catarebuli sazogadoebrivi azris kvlevis monacemebSi 220 , romlebic<br />

respondentTa kategoriulobis Serbilebasa da „daeWvebulTa“ gazrdil<br />

raodenobaze metyveleben:<br />

1. rogor fiqrobT, marTali iyo ruseTi Tu ara, roca qarTul—osur<br />

konfliqtSi samxreT oseTs dauWira mxari?<br />

2009 2010<br />

ra Tqma unda, marTali 59 38<br />

ufro marTali 27 38<br />

ufro araswori 5 6<br />

ra Tqma unda, araswori 1 2<br />

miWirs pasuxis gacema 7 16<br />

2. ruseTma samxreT oseTis [da afxazeTis] damoukidebloba aRiara. uWerT Tu<br />

ara mxars am gadawyvetilebas?<br />

2008 2010<br />

ra Tqma unda, vuWer 59 34<br />

ufro vuWer 25 42<br />

ufro ar vuWer 4 6<br />

ra Tqma unda, ar vuWer 2 2<br />

miWirs pasuxis gacema 10 16<br />

3. rogor fiqrobT, ruseTis gadawyvetileba samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiarebis Sesaxeb sabolooa, Tu gadaxedvas eqvemdebareba?<br />

2009 2010<br />

gadawyvetileba saboloa da gadaxedvas<br />

ar eqvemdebareba<br />

47 51<br />

garkveul pirobebSi SeiZleba<br />

gadaixedos<br />

33 21<br />

miWirs pasuxis gacema 20 28<br />

218 http://www.smr.gov.ge/uploads/file/041010/statement.pdf (на груз. и англ. языках)<br />

219 С. Маркедонов: Состоится ли объединение двух Осетий? 18.05.2010, http://www.politcom.ru/10121.html<br />

220 sayovelTao gamokiTxva ruseTSi ВЦИОМ-is mier 2010 wlis 21-22 agvistos Catarda.<br />

gamoikiTxa 1600 adamiani ruseTis 140 dasaxlebul punqtSi, 42 olqSi, mxaresa da respublikaSi.<br />

SekiTxvebi iyo daxuruli; asarCevad SeTavazebuli iyo erTi pasuxi. statistikuri Secdoma<br />

3,4%-s ar aRemateba. http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=13778<br />

137

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mesame kiTxvis pasuxebi, erTi SexedviT, Seusabamoa pirveli ori kiTxvis<br />

pasuxebTan, magram am (mesame) SemTxvevaSi, albaT, gamoxatulia respondentTa ara<br />

imdenad sakuTari pozicia, ramdenadac maTi reaqcia ruseTis oficialur<br />

poziciaze, politikaze, ritorikaze, romelic ara Tu Seicvala, aramed<br />

Sidarusul diskursSi eWvqveSac ki ar damdgara.<br />

dRes saubari imaze, rom samxreT oseTis „Sualeduridan“ sxva raime<br />

mdgomareobaSi gadasvlis winapiroba ukve gamoikveTa, naadrevia. moskovisa da<br />

Tbilisis xelisuflebebi sakuTari poziciebis gadaxedvis Teoriul Sanssac ki ar<br />

uSveben; evrokavSiri „araRiarebasa da CarTulobaze“ saubrobs 221 , Tumca am<br />

politikis meore Semadgenlis realurad asamoqmedeblad konfliqtis mxareebze<br />

zemoqmedebis berketebi dRemde ver gamounaxavs. aSS, romelic upirobod uWers<br />

mxars saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobas, „strategiuli moTminebisken“<br />

mouwodebs mas, Tumca mTlad garkveuli veraa, Tu ras elis Tavad: ruseTTan<br />

urTierTobebis imgvar „gadatvirTvas“, rom es ukanaskneli poziciebs Searbilebs,<br />

Tu cdilobs agrZnobinos saqarTvelos, rom kavkasiuri konfliqtebis mogvareba<br />

jerjerobiT amerikis prioritetebSi ar Sedis. Tumca, im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu<br />

amgvari Stili („gaurkvevlobis mdgomareoba“) xangrZlivi aRmoCnda, samxreT<br />

oseTis romelime zemoaRniSnuli mimarTulebiT tivtivi mainc gardauvalia:<br />

uqaro amindSic xom arsebobs dinebebi, maT Soris _ wyalqveSac.<br />

samxreT oseTis ruseTis federaciaSi Sesvla<br />

swored es scenari ganixileba, rogorc samxreT oseTis irgvliv procesis<br />

ganviTarebis yvelaze ufro savaraudo versia. samxreT oseTis [da afxazeTis]<br />

omis Semdgom viTarebas n. popesku Semdegnairad axasiaTebs: paradoqsi imaSi<br />

mdgomareobs, rom 2008 wlis agvistomde afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi<br />

warmoadgendnen araRiarebul, magram faqtobrivad damoukidebel qveynebs; 2008<br />

wlis agvistos Semdeg isini nawilobriv aRiarebul qveynebad gadaiqcnen, magram<br />

faqtobrivad damoukideblebad veRar CaiTvlebian. Tu 1990-ianebis dasawyisis<br />

separatistuli omebi iyo maTi „omi damoukideblobisaTvis“, 2008 wlis omma bolo<br />

mouRo maT Tundac SezRudul, magram „faqtobriv damoukideblobas“. 2008 wlis<br />

omSi ara separatistulma warmonaqmnebma, aramed ruseTma gaimarjva. afxazeTica<br />

da samxreT oseTic „faqtobrivad damoukidebeli saxelmwifoebidan“ „ruseTis<br />

faqtobriv regionebad“ iqcevian swrafad 222 .<br />

es dakvirveba gansakuTrebiT samarTliania samxreT oseTis mimarT (afxazTa<br />

miswrafebebi Tu resursebi erTgvarad gansxvavdeba samxreT osurisgan). mis<br />

damadasturebel ZiriTad aspeqtebze zemoT iyo saubari. ra Tqma unda, 2008 wlis<br />

agvistos movlenebamde, wlebis manZilze, samxreT oseTi ruseTisgan ara marto<br />

„xelovnur kvebaze“, aramed „xelovnur sunTqvazec“ imyofeboda; amitom ruseTis<br />

federaciaSi samxreT oseTis Sesvla arsebuli realuri mdgomareobis faqtobrivi<br />

ga<strong>for</strong>meba gaxdeboda. Tumca s. markedonovis azriT, samxreT oseTis ruseTis<br />

federaciasTan mierTeba ar gaxlavT viwroregionuli sakiTxi; igi saSinao da<br />

sagareo politikis problemebis farTo speqtrs warmoSobs 223 . SevecadoT<br />

gamovyoT maT Soris yvelaze mniSvnelovani.<br />

pirveli da yvelaze cxadi: samxreT oseTis ruseTTan mierTeba (riskenac ukve didi<br />

xania mouwodebs zogi rusi politikosi) ruseTis mxridan saqarTvelos<br />

221 http://www.iss.europa.eu/fileadmin/fichiers/pdf/seminars/2010/NREP_report.pdf<br />

222 Н. Попеску: Конец «фактически независимых государств, 14.07.2009, www.inosmi.ru/translation/250693.html<br />

223 С. Маркедонов: Состоится ли объединение двух Осетий?<br />

138

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teritoriis nawilis aSkara aneqsiad aRiqmeba — intervenciisa da okupaciis<br />

sworxazovan gagrZelebad, anu sawyisi Canafiqis logikur dasasrulamde miyvanad.<br />

meore: ruseTis mier samxreT oseTis mierTeba (kavkasiaSi postsabWoTa sazRvrebis<br />

Secvla) regionSi arsebuli sazRvrebis urRvevobis („samarTlianobis“) sakiTxs<br />

gaamZafrebs, pirvel rigSi, inguSebsa (vainaxebs?) da osebs Soris. or xalxs Soris<br />

teritoriuli dava `prigorodni~ raionTan dakavSirebiT xan cxreba, xan ki axali<br />

ZaliT Rvivdeba, magram arsebobs permanentulad. ruseTis federaciis sagareo<br />

sazRvrebis Secvla mxolod gaaZlierebs maT poziciebs, visac miaCnia, rom<br />

federaciis SigniT sazRvrebis sakiTxis gadaxedva misaRebicaa da aucilebelic. a.<br />

malaSenko miiCnevs, rom ukanaskneli kavkasiuri omisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukideblobis aRiarebis pirdapiri Sedegi SeiZleba osur-inguSuri<br />

konfliqtis ganaxleba gaxdes 224 .<br />

mesame: ruseTis gansakuTrebuli „keTilganwyoba“ osebisadmi, romelTa<br />

umravlesoba Tavs marTlmadidebel qristianebs miakuTvnebs, CrdiloeT kavkasiis<br />

islamuri aRmsareblobis xalxebSi Sors mimaval eWvebs aRZravs. es ki saero<br />

nacionalizmis „islamuri internacionalizmiT“ Canacvlebis tendencias<br />

gaaZlierebs, anu, martivad rom vTqvaT, kavkasiis saamiros („Имарат Кавказ“) ideas<br />

gaamyarebs. am saamiros SemadgenlobaSi ki CrdiloeT oseTicaa nagulisxmevi,<br />

xolo samxreT oseTi _ ara. aRsaniSnavia, rom Tavdapirvelad CrdiloeT oseTi<br />

saamiros ideologebis mier „iristonis“ calke vilaieTad moiazreboda, Tumca<br />

Semdgom „galgaiCes“ (inguSeTis) vilaieTis Semadgenel nawilamde<br />

`CamoaqveiTes“ 225 . gasagebia, rom am wamowyebaSi CrdiloeT oseTi „sust rgols“<br />

warmoadgens. susts, erTi mxriv, imitom, rom saerTo koncefciidanaa<br />

amovardnili, xolo meore mxriv imitom, rom martod darCenils Zalze gauWirdeba<br />

masTan gamklaveba.<br />

meoTxe: rom araferi vTqvaT saqarTvelosa da mis dasavlel partniorebze,<br />

samxreT oseTis ruseTis federaciis SemadgenlobaSi Seyvana SeaSfoTebs<br />

azerbaijans („lekebis sakiTxi“!), TurqeTs (mTlianad kavkasiisa da, kerZod,<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarT misi istoriuli interesis gamo) da iransac ki<br />

(romelsac kavkasiaSi status-kvos Secvla rTul emociebs aRuZravs). saeWvoa, rom<br />

am wamowyebam ruseTs rame uSualo sargebeli moutanos, samagierod, politikuri<br />

riskebi da danakargebi, maT Soris _ saerTaSoriso asparezze, SeuiaraRebeli<br />

TvaliTac Cans. kuriliis kunZulebis gadauwyveteli problemis fonze, romelic<br />

ruseTs mudmiv da uxerxul tvirTad awevs mxrebze, morigi samxedro nadavli<br />

kidev erTi mezobeli qveynis teritoriis nawilis saxiT, zedmetad gamomwvevad<br />

gamoCndeba.<br />

mexuTe: sWirdebaT ki es yvelaferi ruseTis moqalaqeebs? saqarTveloze swrafi<br />

samxedro gamarjvebiT gamowveuli ei<strong>for</strong>iis Semdeg (rusul masobriv aRqmaSi am<br />

gamarjvebam iseTi fenomeni ganasaxiera, rogoricaa „dasavleTisTvis seiris<br />

Cveneba“ 226 ) adamianebis gonebaSi aucileblad daisadgurebs kanonzomieri kiTxva:<br />

am gamarjvebis Sedegad problema mogvexsna Tu mogvemata? xom ar gaamZafrebs am<br />

erTi goji miwis mierTeba (goji _ rusuli masStabiT, magram ara qarTuliT)<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi isedac rTul viTarebas, romelsac mTel ruseTSi<br />

tragikuli gamoZaxili axlavs? da es yvelaferi — federaluri biujetidan<br />

CrdiloeT kavkasiis araproporciulad didi dafinansebis fonze, rac danarCen<br />

ruseTSi mzard ukmayofilebas iwvevs. niS<strong>and</strong>oblivia, rom 23 aprils moskovis<br />

centrSi saprotesto aqcia gaimarTa (sxvaTa Soris, xelisuflebis mier<br />

224 А. Малашенко: Северный Кавказ: когда закончилась война<br />

225 Кавказский эмират (Имарат Кавказ), 31.08.2009, www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/158730/<br />

226 rusulad _ «показать Кузькину мать Западу» (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).<br />

139

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nebadarTuli) lozungiT „gveyo kavkasiis kveba!“ 227 . gasagebia, rom postsabWoTa<br />

sivrceze (da ara marto aq) sazogadoebrivi azri rodi gansazRvravs sadavo<br />

politikuri sakiTxebis beds; magram gana rusul istebliSments gauCnda 2008 wlis<br />

agvistos Sedegad kidev ufro CaxlarTuli kavkasiuri kvanZis gaxsnis mkafio<br />

xedva?<br />

amgvarad, samxreT oseTis inkorporacia namdvilad ar uqadis ruseTis federacias<br />

Sesabamisi problemebis mogvarebas rogorc uSualo mezoblebTan (pirvel rigSi<br />

saqarTvelosTan), ise farTo saerTaSoriso asparezze; ufro — piriqiT. igive<br />

iTqmis ruseTis Sidapolitikur problemebzec, kerZod — CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi.<br />

samxreT oseTis gaerTianeba CrdiloeT oseTTan<br />

„osebi gayofili eria, Cven dagvaSores erTi qveynis SigniT. amitom arc erTi sxva<br />

varianti, garda gaerTianebisa [samxreT da CrdiloeT oseTisa], ar arsebobs,“ —<br />

ganacxada 2005 wlis 16 ivniss erTi TviT adre CrdiloeT oseTis respublika —<br />

alanias meTaurad daniSnulma Teimuraz mamsurovma. „os xalxs ar gaaCnia sxva<br />

perspeqtiva, garda gaerTianebisa,“ — bani misca mas samxreT oseTis prezidentma<br />

eduard kokoiTim 228 . 2010 wlis maisSi T. mamsurovma ori oseTis gaerTianebis ideas<br />

„daRvinebuli“ uwoda da daamata: Cven miviReT damoukidebeli saxelmwifo<br />

samxreT oseTi; magram nebismier normalur adamians esmis, rom ase mudmivad ver<br />

gagrZeldeba. Cven mainc erTian teritoriad CamovyalibdebiT 229 .<br />

s. markedonovis azriT, samxreT osuri proeqti imTaviTve yalibdeboda ara<br />

rogorc separatistuli, aramed rogorc iredentistuli da ruseTis egidiT<br />

ori oseTis gaerTianeba prioritetad iyo miCneuli. misi TqmiT, samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukidebloba ganixileboda, rogorc Sualeduri Sedegi, rogorc<br />

„gamaerTianebeli“ ideis realizaciis instrumenti. swored aqedan<br />

momdinareobs diversificirebuli sagareo politikis gatarebisa da<br />

dasavleTTan da mis institutebTan (rogorc saxelmwifo, ise<br />

sazogadoebrivTan) urTierTobebis damyarebis survilis arqona 230 .<br />

aSkaraa, rom am proeqtis ideologiuri baza gayofili eris gaerTianebaa.<br />

Tumca, „gayofili eris“ versias yvela rodi iziarebs: rogorc qarTul-osur<br />

SeiaraRebul konfliqtamde (198090 wlebis mijnaze), ise 2008 wlis agvistos<br />

Semdeg „danarCen“ saqarTveloSi imaze meti osi cxovrobda, vidre sakuTriv<br />

samxreT oseTSi (Tumca orive SemTxvevaSi maTi ricxvi sagrZnoblad Semcirda).<br />

amgvarad, saubari SeiZleba iyos diasporazec, romlis gansaxleba<br />

saqarTveloSi kombinirebul — rogorc dispersiul, ise kompaqtur xasiaTs<br />

atarebs. gayofili eris versias romc mivdioT, sxva garemoebebTan erTad<br />

uyuradRebod ar unda davtovoT iseTi faqtori, rogoricaa kavkasioni.<br />

dasavleT evropaSi aris gayofili eris iseTi magaliTi, rogoricaa baskebi:<br />

cxovroben espaneTsa da safrangeTSi, maTi ricxovnoba milions aWarbebs, magram<br />

maTi gaerTianebis sakiTxi dRis wesrigSi ar dgas. SesaZlebelia, sxva<br />

garemoebebTan erTad, imitomac, rom am xalxsac yofs mTebi — pireneebi (sxvaTa<br />

Soris, samxreT tirolelebs Crdiloelebisgan aseve yofs alpebze gamavali<br />

saxelmwifo sazRvari, romlis Secvlaze saubari ar aris). imis xazgasma, rom<br />

geografiuli faqtorebi XXI saukuneSic ki arsebiT rols TamaSoben, zedmetia.<br />

227 http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/184263/<br />

228 Газета "Коммерсантъ", 17.06.2005, http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=585666<br />

229 Интервью "Кавказскому узлу" и "Газете.Ru", 11.05.2010, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/168697/С.<br />

230 С.Маркедонов: Состоится ли объединение двух Осетий.<br />

140

---

yvela is problema, romelTa Sesaxeb wina TavSi iyo saubari, aramc Tu ZalaSi<br />

darCeba, aramed SeiZleba damatebiT gamZafrdes kidec samxreT da CrdiloeT<br />

oseTis gaerTianebis SemTxvevaSi. metic: ori oseTis gaerTianebam dRis<br />

wesrigSi SeiZleba axali gamowvevebi imaT winaSe daayenos, vinc ase Tu ise<br />

CarTulia kavkasiaSi mimdinare procesebSi. bolos da bolos kavkasiaSi sxva<br />

gayofili erebic cxovroben, magaliTad — lekebi da avarielebi (daRestnis<br />

garda, maTi angariSgasawevi raodenoba cxovrobs azerbaijanSic); CeCnebi da<br />

inguSebi vainax xalxs Seadgenen, visi gaerTianebis idea arsad gamqrala; xolo<br />

„Cerqezi xalxis“ (adiRelebis) erTianobis idea sul ufro da ufro aqtualuri<br />

xdeba 231 . ase, s. markedonovis azriT, CerqezTa moZraobis gaaqtiureba, maT<br />

Soris, ruseTis federaciis mier samxreT oseTis [da afxazeTis]<br />

damoukideblobis aRiarebasTanaa dakavSirebuli da rac ufro moaxlovdeba<br />

soWis olimpiada, miT ufro aqtiurad ganixileba Cerqezuli Tema rogorc<br />

ruseTis federaciis SegniT, ise mis farglebs gareTac 232 . ori oseTis<br />

gaerTianeba iseT viTarebas Seqmnis ruseTSi, roca CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

federaciis sxva subieqtebis mxridan gaerTianebisken swrafvis sawinaaRmdego<br />

argumentebis moZebna sakmaod garTuldeba.<br />

„ruseTis federaciis farglebSi ori oseTis gaerTianeba Zalian seriozul<br />

problemebs Seqmnis: Tu es moxdeba, ruseTs saqarTvelos teritoriis aneqsiaSi<br />

daadanaSauleben da saSiSi saerTaSoriso precedenti Seiqmneba,“ — wers a.<br />

malaSenko 233 . ukrainuli gazeTisTvis „zerkalo nedeli“ micemul interviuSi is<br />

ambobs: me vfiqrob, rom CrdiloeT da samxreT oseTis gaerTianeba SeuZlebelia.<br />

Tu es moxdeba, mxolod maTi didi sisuleliT, vinc amaze daTanxmdeba 234 . ori<br />

oseTis gaerTianebam SeiZleba osuri nacionalizmis amofrqvevamde da mezobel<br />

xalxebTan uTanxmoebamde migviyvanos, miiCnevs d. trenini da midis im<br />

daskvnamde, rom ruseTis farglebSi Tu mis farglebs gareT ori oseTis<br />

gaerTianeba katastrofis tolfasia 235 .<br />

Crdiloel osebs Soris separatistuli ganwyobebis zrdis SesaZlebloba<br />

naklebad ganixileba mas Semdegac ki, rac samxreT oseTze kontroli<br />

saqarTvelosgan ruseTis federaciis xelSi gadavida (dasrulda „osuri<br />

proeqtis“ pirveli etapi). miCneulia, rom ruseTis mimarT osebis loialoba<br />

kritikul niSnulze dabla ar daiwevs mTeli rigi garemoebebis gamo, romelTa<br />

Soris umniSvnelovanesia uSualo garemocva (geografiuli faqtoris kidev<br />

erTi mxare). gasagebia, Tu ras uqadis maT aramc Tu kavkasiis saamiros ideis<br />

xorcSesxma, aramed sulac am ideisTvis brZola (omi!). saRad Tu ganvsjiT,<br />

Sesadavebeli aq araferia garda imisa, rom nebismier politikur mocemulobas<br />

cvlilebis tendencia axasiaTebs; Tanac, sulac araa aucilebeli, rom<br />

cvlileba mainca da mainc ukeTesobis momtani aRmoCndes. gulubryvilobaa imis<br />

fiqri, rom Tu arsebobs kavkasiis saamiros idea, gaerTianebuli,<br />

damoukidebeli oseTis ideisTvis adgili aRar darCeba.<br />

aqve SeiZleba aRiniSnos, rom erTi droSis qveS samxreT da CrdiloeT oseTis<br />

damoukidebel saxelmwifod gaerTianeba saqarTvelosTvis, misi teritoriuli<br />

231 SeiniSneba, TumcaRa, daSlis tendenciac iseT xelovnur, tipur sabWoTa warmonaqmnebSi,<br />

rogoricaa yaraCai-CerqezeTi da yabardo-balyareTi, rac damatebiT arTulebs viTarebas<br />

(avtoris SeniSvna).<br />

232 С. Маркедонов: Северный Кавказ–2010: Рост внутриполитической «капитализации», 28.12.2010,<br />

http://www.politcom.ru/11250.html<br />

233 А. Малашенко: Северный Кавказ: когда закончилась война<br />

234 Интервью с А. Малашенко: Внутреннее зарубежье России, «Зеркало недели», 12.09.2009,<br />

http://www.zn.ua/newspaper/articles/57880#article<br />

235 Д. Тренин: Как помириться с Грузией, “The Moscow Times”, 10.08.2010,<br />

http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?FA=41404<br />

141

---

mTlianobis aRdgenis TvalsazrisiT, yvelaze mZime variantia. ruseTis mier<br />

saqarTvelos teritoriis nawilis aneqsiis Sesaxeb argumenti ganeitraldeba,<br />

radgan ruseTis federaciis suvereniteti axal saxelmwifoze (<strong>for</strong>malurad an<br />

realurad) ukve aRar gavrceldeba; samagierod gamyardeba argumenti gayofili<br />

eris gamTlianebis Sesaxeb. Tumca es imasac niSnavs, rom ruseTi Tavisi nebiT an<br />

garemoebebis wnexis qveS sakuTari teritoriebis nawils Tmobs (aq ki uneblied<br />

isev kurilebi maxsendeba), rac mas „dominos efeqts“ uqadis. SesaZloa - ara<br />

mxolod CrdiloeT kavkasiis masStabiT.<br />

amrigad, ruseTis federaciis farglebSi Tu mis gareT ori oseTis gaerTianeba<br />

<strong>for</strong>malurad integraciuli procesia, romelic seriozuli dezintegraciuli<br />

Sedegebis safrTxis matarebelia.<br />

saqarTvelos reaqcia samxreT oseTis mowyvetaze<br />

gasagebicaa da bunebrivic, rom viTarebis gayinva „axal samxedro-politikur<br />

realiebSi“, razec ruseTi oficialurad apelirebs 236 da samxreT oseTis<br />

ruseTis federaciisken (da/an CrdiloeT oseTisken) tivtivi saqarTvelos<br />

mxridan sakuTari teritoriis nawilis mowyvetis procesad fasdeba. bunebrivia<br />

isic, rom upasuxod es ar darCenila. ukve 2008 wlis oqtomberSi saqarTvelos<br />

parlamentma miiRo kanoni okupirebuli teritoriebis Sesaxeb; amiT cxinvalis<br />

regions/samxreT oseTsa da afxazeTs, ruseTis federaciis mier maTi<br />

damoukideblobis aRiarebisa da iq samxedro bazebis ganlagabaze<br />

gadawyvetilebis miRebis Semdeg, swored aseTi statusi mieniWa (rogorc ukve<br />

iTqva, aSS-ma da evrokavSirma Tavis politikur-diplomatiur leqsikonSi aseve<br />

CarTes momxdaris amgvari kvalifikacia). Sesabamisad, deokupacia saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebis umaRles prioritetad — samxreT oseTis irgvliv konfliqtis<br />

mosagvareblad aucilebel (davamateb _ arasakmaris) pirobad iqca. amrigad,<br />

Tbilisma mainc moaxerxa garkveuli politikuri dividendebis amoReba 2008<br />

wlis agvistos omis katastrofuli Sedegebidan: Tbilisi-cxinvalis<br />

dapirispireba, sadac pirvels namdvilad uWirda msoflio sazogadoebriobis<br />

winaSe sakuTari Tavis erTmniSvnelovnad pozitiurad warmoCena, „gadaifara“<br />

moskovi-Tbilisis dapirispirebiT, sadac gacilebiT ufro arasaxarbielod<br />

ukve moskovi warmoCinda.<br />

Tbilisis poziciebi, SesaZloa, ver gaamyara, magram garkveulwilad<br />

„gaakeTilSobila“ 2010 wlis dasawyisSi miRebulma saxelmwifo strategiam<br />

okupirebuli teritoriebis mimarT (da Sesabamisma samoqmedo gegmam). am<br />

dokumentis aSkara naklovanebebis miuxedavad, igi „miyidvadia“, rogorc<br />

Tundac dagvianebuli, magram mainc keTili zraxvebis nusxa. Tumca, arsebul<br />

pirobebSi maTi ganxorcielebis gzebi Znelad Tua warmosadgeni.<br />

2010 wlis noemberSi, evroparlamentSi gamosvlisas, saqarTvelos prezidentma<br />

mixeil saakaSvilma ganacxada, rom sakuTari teritoriuli mTlianobisa da<br />

suverenitetis aRsadgenad saqarTvelo Zalas arasdros gamoiyenebs 237 .<br />

saakaSvilis am gancxadebam, ase, eqvswli-naxevriT mainc daagviana (2004 wlis<br />

zafxulSi cxinvalis mimarTulebiT man pirveli Zalismieri aqcia ganxorciela),<br />

magram yvela, vinc xelmZRvanelobs principiT — „sjobs gvian, vidre arasdros“,<br />

kmayofili darCeboda.<br />

236 ix. mag.: ruseTis federaciis sagareo saqmeTa saministros gancxadeba 1269-25-08-2009<br />

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/4107A0E2642142ABC325761D0022E2AA<br />

237 http://www.rosbalt.ru/2010/11/23/792842.html<br />

142

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samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis Semdgomi SesaZlo aRiarebis prevenciisaTvis<br />

(Tumca, eWvgareSea, afxazeTs es ufro metad exeba) 2009-2010 wlebSi<br />

saqarTvelom diplomatiuri urTierTobebi xuT aTeul saxelmwifosTan<br />

daamyara; es procesi 2011 welsac gagrZelda (martis pirvelive dReebSi xeli<br />

moewera Sesabamis dokumentebs hondurasTan, kongos demokratiul<br />

respublikasa da gvinea-bisausTan). amasTan dakavSirebiT SegviZlia<br />

vivaraudoT, rom ruseTis federacia samxreT oseTis [da afxazeTis] faqtobriv<br />

Tu potenciur amRiarebelTa wris („klubis“) mimarT sakuTari mosazrebebiT<br />

xelmZRvanelobs.<br />

amave kursis CarCoebSi saqarTvelo samxreT oseTis [da afxazeTis] gare<br />

samyarosgan faqtobrivi izolaciis politikas atarebs (anu dasavleTisken gzas<br />

mxolod „Tbilisis gavliT“ sTavazobs; Tumca, swored ase moqmedebs ruseTic<br />

didi xnis manZilze). wina SemTxvevis msgavsad, es, pirvel rigSi, afxazeTs exeba;<br />

samxreT oseTi am mimarTulebiT aranair aqtivobas ar iCens. a. krilovi wers,<br />

rom sakuTari saxelmwifoebriobis ganmtkicebis gziT samxreT oseTis<br />

respublikis ganviTarebis idea dRemde ar sargeblobs popularobiT elitasa<br />

Tu sazogadoebaSi upirvelesad imitom, rom is erTian saxelmwifoSi osebis<br />

erovnul gaerTianebas uSlis xels 238 .<br />

garda amisa, saqarTvelom CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarTulebiT iseTi nabijebi<br />

gadadga 239 , rogoricaa:<br />

1. 2009 wlis ianvarSi saqarTvelos parlamentSi CrdiloeT kavkasiis<br />

parlamentebTan megobrobis jgufis dafuZneba;<br />

2. 2010 wlis ianvarSi aSkarad propag<strong>and</strong>istuli telearxis — pirveli<br />

kavkasiuris — mauwyeblobis dawyeba; mauwyeblobis iZulebiTi<br />

Sewyvetis Semdeg igi ganaxlda saxelwodebiT „pirveli sain<strong>for</strong>macio<br />

kavkasiuri“ (rusuli abreviatura „ПИК“), romlis miznobriv<br />

auditorias upirvelesad CrdiloeT kavkasia warmoadgens;<br />

3. 2010 wlis martSi TbilisSi saerTaSoriso konferenciis „ucnobi erebi,<br />

dausrulebeli danaSauli: Cerqezebi da kavkasieli xalxebi warsulsa<br />

da momavals Soris“ Catareba, sadac ruseTis imperiaSi XIX s. Cerqezi<br />

xalxis genocidis sakiTxi daayenes (imave Temaze meore konferencia<br />

noemberSi gaimarTa);<br />

4. ruseTis federaciis Crdilokavkasieli subieqtebisTvis<br />

saqarTveloSi Semosvlis uvizo reJimis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis<br />

miReba, romelic ZalaSi 2010 wlis 13 oqtombers Sevida;<br />

5. 2010 wlis 23 seqtembers m. saakaSvilis sityva gaeros generaluri<br />

asambleis sesiaze, sadac man „Tavisufali, stabiluri da erTiani<br />

kavkasiis“ sakuTari xedva warmoadgina;<br />

6. 2010 wlis dekemberSi ucxoeTSi mcxovreb TanamemamuleebTan<br />

urTierTobebis saparlamento komitetis gardaqmna kavkasiisa da<br />

diasporis saqmeTa komitetad; 2011 wlis TebervalSi diasporis<br />

saqmeTa saxelmwifo ministris aparatTan kavkasiis saqmeTa specialuri<br />

komisiis Seqmna;<br />

238<br />

А. Крылов: Абхазия и Южная Осетия после Пятидневной войны, в Ежегоднике ИМЭМО РАН «Север-Юг-<br />

Россия», Москва, 2010.<br />

239<br />

dawvrilebiT, ix.: И.Менагаришвили, Н.Меликадзе, Г.Гвимрадзе: Северный Кавказ как фактор в грузинороссийских<br />

отношениях, Институт стратегических исследований (при содействии Фонда Ф.Эберта),<br />

Тбилиси, 2010.<br />

agreTve: Paata Zakareishvili: The North Caucasus: Bone of Contention or a Basis <strong>for</strong> Russian-<strong>Georgian</strong> Cooperation?<br />

05.2011, http://www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/cad/<br />

143

---

7. 2011 wlis 20 maisis saqarTvelos parlamentis dadgenileba, romliTac<br />

ruseTis mxridan „genocidis aqtadaa“ aRiarebuli 1763-1864 w.w.<br />

kavkasiuri omis dros „Cerqezi xalxis ganadgureba da istoriuli<br />

samSoblodan gaZeveba“.<br />

TiToeuli am nabijTagani winaaRmdegobrivia Tavisi arsiT da saqarTvelos<br />

sulac ar uqadis pirdapir sargebels. metic, zogi maTgani potenciuri riskebis<br />

matarebelicaa 240 , risi Sefasebac calke da saguldagulo ganxilvas<br />

imsaxurebs 241 . Tumca faqti imaSi mdgomareobs, rom CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi<br />

ruseTis federaciis mravalricxovan problemebs kidev erTi emateba. amasTan,<br />

Tu qarTul politikaSi infantilizms racionalizmi Caanacvlebs, saqarTvelo<br />

SesaZlebelia regionul moTamaSed iqces, romelsac an angariSi unda gauwio, an<br />

isev dabombo.<br />

samxreT oseTis saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi dabruneba<br />

dRev<strong>and</strong>eli viTarebidan gamomdinare, samxreT oseTis irgvliv konfliqtis<br />

amgvarad dagvirgvineba naklebadaa savaraudo. saqarTvelos mimarT<br />

keTilganwyobili dasavluri politikuri da analitikuri wreebis<br />

warmomadgenlebic ki amboben, rom samxreT oseTis reintegracias mravali weli<br />

Tu ara, aTwleulebi dasWirdeba.<br />

cxadia, Secdomebis daxvavebis Semdeg (zog maTgans mowinaaRmdege mxare<br />

danaSauls uwodebs), romlebic am mimarTulebiT erTi meoris miyolebiT<br />

saqarTvelos yvela xelisuflebam dauSva (menSevikurma, komunisturma,<br />

gamsaxurdias, SevardnaZis, saakaSvilisa), samxreT oseTSi Tbilisis<br />

iurisdiqciis aRdgena Zalze Zneli warmosadgenia.<br />

ra Tqma unda, mas Semdeg, rac samxreT oseTma „nawilobriv aRiarebuli<br />

saxelmwifos“ statusi, xolo „gamaerTianebelma“ osurma proeqtma mZlavri<br />

impulsi SeiZines, saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis farglebSi<br />

konfliqtis mogvarebis varianti TiTqos movlenebis ganviTarebis logikas<br />

ewinaaRmdegeba.<br />

naTelia, rom mas Semdeg, rac rusulma faqtorma Tavi axal hipostasSi iCina —<br />

<strong>for</strong>maluri mSvidobismyofelisgan ruseTis federacia konfliqtis mxared da<br />

samxreT oseTis saqarTvelosgan secesiis garantad gadaiqca, saqarTvelos<br />

ubralod ar gaaCnia sakmarisi Zala, raTa gadalaxos samxreT oseTis<br />

saqarTveloSi dabrunebis mimarT konsolodirebuli rusul-osuri<br />

winaaRmdegoba (aseTis SenarCunebis SemTxvevaSi).<br />

ra Tqma unda, qarTuli soflebis ganadgurebisa da eTnikuri wmendis Semdeg,<br />

rac samxreT oseTis qarTulma mosaxleobam agvistos omis mimdinareobisas da<br />

uSualod mis Semdeg ganicada (or aTasamde eTnikuri qarTveli axalgoris<br />

raionSiRa darCa), osebisa da qarTvelebis adrindeli wesiT (samxreT oseTSi<br />

240<br />

magaliTad, senatis komitetis winaSe aSS-is erovnuli dazvervis direqtoris j. klaperis<br />

2011 wlis 16 Tebervlis gamosvlaSi CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi saqarTvelos aqtiuroba daZabulobis<br />

erT-erT faqtorad miiCneva. http://intelligence.senate.gov/110216/dni.pdf<br />

241<br />

ix. mag.: В. Дзуцев: Признание Грузией геноцида черкесов: насолить России или договориться "по-братски"?<br />

20.04.2010, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/167916/<br />

agreTve: С. Маркедонов: Разыгрывание северокавказской карты в любом формате никак не поможет Грузии в<br />

деле возвращения Абхазии и Южной Осетии, 07.03.2011<br />

http://www.ekhokavkaza.com/content/article/2330764.html<br />

agreTve: Oliver Bullough: A New <strong>Georgian</strong> Gamble in the Caucasus, December 23, 2010<br />

http://www.<strong>for</strong>eignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-tbilisi-0?page=show<br />

144

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qarTuli da osuri soflebi xSirad enacvleboda erTi meores, xolo bevr<br />

sofelSi eTnikurad Sereuli mosaxleoba iyo) mSvidobiani Tanacxovrebis<br />

aRdgenis SesaZlebloba naklebad savaraudoa.<br />

sxvadasxvagvari garemoebebis nusxa, romelic ybadaRebuli „arasodes“<br />

sasargeblod RaRadebs, SegviZlia gavagrZeloT. Tumca arsebobs iseTi<br />

politikuri maqsimac, rogoricaa: „arasodes Tqva arasodes“...<br />

samxreT oseTisa da mis irgvliv Seqmnili viTarebis negatiurad amsaxveli<br />

faqtorebi im faqtorebTan erTobliobaSi, romlebic samxreT oseTis ruseTis<br />

federaciis SemadgenlobaSi Sesvlis da/an mis CrdiloeT oseTTan gaerTianebis<br />

sawinaaRmdegod metyveleben, sakmaod damajereblad adastureben axali<br />

gadawyvetilebis moZebnis aucileblobas. aseTad ki samxreT oseTis<br />

saqarTvelos farglebSi dabruneba SeiZleba mogvevlinos. samxreT oseTi<br />

(ruseTis federaciis SemadgenlobaSi Tu mis gareT), romlis perimetris 75<br />

procents saqarTvelosTan daxuruli sazRvari Seadgens da romelic<br />

saqarTvelosgan saomari gziT mowyvetil teritoriad ganixileba (raSic,<br />

sxvaTa Soris, „oTxTa klubis“ gamoklebiT, msoflios yvela qveyanaa<br />

solidaruli) arsebobas mxolod ruseTis federaciis mxridan sicocxlis<br />

xelovnurad uzrunvelyofiT Tu SeZlebs. „momakvdavi samxreT oseTi<br />

kontrmagaliTi ara mxolod da ara imdenad dasavleTis qveynebisTvisaa,<br />

romlebic regionSi ganviTarebul movlenebs yuradRebiT adevneben Tvals,<br />

aramed, pirvel rigSi, samxreT kavkasiis qveynebisa da dsT-isTvis mTlianobaSi.<br />

korufciis gamxrwneli gavlena, saxelmwifo institutebis CamoSla magaliTia<br />

imisa, Tu ra emarTeba qveyanas, romelic mfarvelad ruseTs irCevs,“ — miaCnia v.<br />

Zucevs 242 .<br />

ramdeni fuli unda (da SeuZlia) daxarjos ruseTis federaciam dividendebis<br />

miRebis yovelgvari perspeqtivis gareSe? iqneb jobdes am fufunebis daTmoba<br />

saqarTvelosTvis, romlis „strategias“, saqme saqmeze rom midges, dasavleTi<br />

daafinansebs? iqneb amoqmedebuli trasa moskovi—vladikavkazi—cxinvali—<br />

Tbilisi da a.S. moxsnis sococxlis xelovnurad uzrunvelyofis<br />

aucileblobas? iqneb Rirdes saqarTvelosTan Serigeba da misi CrdiloeT<br />

kavkasiis stabilizaciis procesSi CarTva (masTan erTad ki yvelasi, vinc<br />

erTmniSvnelovnad da Tanamimdevrulad uWers mas mxars dasavleTSi)? iqneb<br />

Rirdes „danarCen“ saqarTveloSi mcxovrebi osebis gamxneveba (maTi ricxvi ki<br />

dResac aranaklebia, vidre sakuTriv samxreT oseTSi 243 )? iqneb osebi saerTod<br />

ufro mSvidad iqnebian, Tuki ara mxolod CrdiloeTidan eyolebaT mfarveli da<br />

garanti ruseTis saxiT, aramed samxreTidanac zurgs gaumagrebT megobari<br />

saqarTvelo? iqneb CrdiloeT da samxreT oseTi geostrategiulad<br />

mowodebulia ara gayos, aramed daakavSiros erTmaneTTan ruseTi da<br />

saqarTvelo? moskovi—vladikavkazi—cxinvali—Tbilisis xazidan erTi<br />

Semadgenelic rom amovagdoT, is xom wyvetilad iqceva...<br />

sakiTxTa nusxa, romelTa xelaRebiT uaryofa, sul mcire, mizanSewonili ar<br />

aris, am SemTxvevaSic SeiZleba gagrZeldes.<br />

d. trenini samarTlianad miiCnevs, rom samxreT oseTi saqarTvelos<br />

SemadgenlobaSi iolad ar dabrundeba 244 . sruliad aSkaraa, rom saWiro iqneba<br />

efeqturi garantiebi — politikuri, samxedro, ekonomikuri, socialuri,<br />

242 В. Дзуцев: Южная Осетия становится гипертрофированным регионом Северного Кавказа<br />

243 იხ. Giorgi Sordia: Ossetians in Georgia in the Wake of the 2008 War, ECMI Working Paper #45, September 2009,<br />

www.ecmi.de, aseve: В. Дзуцев: Национальное примирение в Южной Осетии, 06.07. 2009<br />

244 Д. Тренин: Как помириться с Грузией<br />

145

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kulturuli da sxva. aseve aSkaraa, rom saqarTvelo iseT qveynad unda<br />

gadaiqces, rom masSi dabrunebaze dafiqreba Rirdes. rac Seexeba prestiJis<br />

sakiTxs, anu „saxis SenarCunebas“ ruseTis mier, romelic aSkarad aCqarda<br />

samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis aRiarebisas da axla ar icis, ra uyos<br />

xsenebul „damoukideblobas“, ar mgonia, rom racionaluri gadawyvetileba<br />

saxelmwifos prestiJs dascems. bolos da bolos „oTxTa klubSi“<br />

Tavmjdomareobis saeWvo pativia es Tu viRacis „jibrze“ moqmedeba, prestiJs<br />

namdvilad ar zrdis. Tumca, es ukanaskneli Tanabrad exeba qarTul<br />

xelmZRvanelobasac.<br />

daskvna<br />

dasmul sakiTxTa simZafris ganelebis mizniT unda aRvniSno, rom isini<br />

dauyovnebel da amomwurav pasuxs ar saWiroeben. amJamad konfliqtis<br />

trans<strong>for</strong>maciis droa da ara misi saboloo mogvarebisa. „mocemul etapze<br />

mxareebma statusis gansazRvris sakiTxi unda gadadon. pirvel rigSi<br />

aucilebelia yuradRebis miqceva adgilobrivi mosaxleobis, agreTve<br />

humanitaruli organizaciebisa da ganviTarebis organizaciebis gadaadgilebis<br />

Tavisuflebis uzrunvelyofaze. axla amas sxvadasxva xarisxiT, magram yvela<br />

mxare uqmnis winaRobebs“ — naTqvamia krizisebis prevenciis saerTaSoriso<br />

jgufis angariSSi 245 . sxvaTa Soris, amave angariSSi rekomendaciebi mieca<br />

rogorc konfliqtis samive mxares, ise saerTaSoriso aqtorebsac. es<br />

rekomendaciebi, tradiciulad, gonivruli da damajerebelia da maT sul<br />

ramdenime zogad mosazrebas davamateb.<br />

ruseT-saqarTvelos dapirispireba yvela sazomiT gadaWarbebulad<br />

personificirebulia. ar Sevcdebi Tu vityvi, rom qarTvelebisa da rusebis<br />

urTierTaRqma ukeTesia, vidre saxelmwifoTa liderebisa da mmarTveli<br />

elitebis urTierToba. Sesabamisad, orive qveyana saWiroebs sagareo politikis<br />

racionalizacias (rogorc minimum — Semxvedri mimarTulebiT) urTierTobis<br />

paraleluri depersonifikaciiTa da wina planze piradi antagonizmis nacvlad<br />

Tanxvedri interesebis wamoweviT.<br />

saqarTvelos Crdilokavkasiuri politika ar unda iyos antirusuli (da/an<br />

antiosuri), radgan, yvelaferTan erTad, msgavsi politika saqarTvelosTvis<br />

aranaklebi riskebis Semcvelia, vidre ruseTisTvis. meore mxriv, ruseTisTvis<br />

saqarTvelos saxiT lamis yvelaze mTavari „sagareo mtris“ yola ubralod<br />

arasoliduria. reveransebi qarTveli xalxis mimarT maSin, roca am xalxis<br />

yoveli meTxuTmete warmomadgeneli sakuTar qveyanaSi iZulebiT<br />

gadaadgilebul pirad iqca, Znelad Tu CaeTvleba vinmes gulwrfel naTqvamSi.<br />

qarTuli produqciisTvis (romelic isedac cali xelis TiTebzea<br />

CamosaTvleli) rusuli bazris daxurva im dros, roca saqarTvelo rusuli<br />

biznesisTvis gaxsnilia (2010 wels ruseTi saqarTveloSi mesame umsxvilesi<br />

investori gaxda) da, paralelurad, ruseTis federaciis msoflio savaWro<br />

organizaciaSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos negatiuri<br />

damokidebulebis mimarT ukmayofilebis gamoxatva, sul mcire,<br />

araTanmimdevrulobaa.<br />

samoqalaqo iniciativebisTvis xelis SeSlis nacvlad, orive qveynis<br />

xelmZRvanelobam rusul-qarTul (da qarTul-osur) dialogs sxvadasxva<br />

245 ICG, angariSi №205, Южная Осетия: Бремя признания, 07.06. 2010,<br />

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/caucasus/<strong>georgia</strong>/205-south-ossetia-the-burden-ofrecognition.aspx?alt_lang=ru<br />

146

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doneze yvelanairad unda dauWiros mxari. kidev ufro metad es cxinvalis<br />

xelisuflebas exeba.<br />

davasruleb ruseTis federaciaSi saqarTvelos yofili elCis, zurab abaSiZis<br />

sityvebiT: msoflio rusul-qarTul urTierTobebSi raRac Semobrunebas elis.<br />

me ar minda saqarTvelos mniSvnelobis gazviadeba, magram saerTaSoriso<br />

Tanamegobroba didi xania raRac pozitivs elodeba. qarTuli mimarTulebiT<br />

aseTi pozitivi kargi niSani iqneboda da, sxvaTa Soris, ruseTis avtoritetis<br />

amaRlebaze imuSavebda 246 .<br />

246 "Коммерсантъ-Online", 14.03.2011, http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/1600503<br />

147

---

Sesavali<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi arsebuli humanitaruli<br />

sakiTxebis mogvarebis SesaZleblobebi<br />

148<br />

aleqs<strong>and</strong>r skakovi<br />

istoriis mecnierebaTa k<strong>and</strong>idati,<br />

ruseTis federaciis mecnierebaTa akademiis<br />

aRmosavleTmcodneobis institutis<br />

centraluri aziis, kavkasiisa da ural-volgispireTis<br />

Semswavleli centris<br />

samuSao jgufis koordinatori<br />

1989 wels dawyebulma movlenebma, gamowveulma ssrk-is daSliT, Sedegad mogvca<br />

ara marto axali damoukidebeli saxelmwifoebi, aramed mTeli rigi<br />

konfliqtebisa, sxvadasxvagvari xasiaTisa da dinamikis mixedviT, xolo<br />

mniSvnelovanwilad Seusabamo da winaaRmdegobrivi _ Sedegebis mixedviT.<br />

amgvari sxvadasxvaobis klasikuri magaliTia konfliqtebi yofili sabWoTa<br />

kavSiris teritoriaze, rasac mohyva bevri araRiarebuli, an nawilobriv<br />

aRiarebuli saxelmwifos Camoyalibeba _ afxazeTis respublika, samxreT<br />

oseTis respublika, mTiani yarabaRis respublika, dnestrispireTis moldavuri<br />

respublika. aq saqme gvaqvs or polusTan: erTi mxriv _ mTiani yarabaRi, sadac<br />

konfliqts erTmniSvnelovnad hqonda eTnopolitikuri xasiaTi, ramac orive<br />

mxare miiyvana totalur eTnikur wmendamde, xolo meore mxriv _<br />

dnestrispireTi, sadac konfliqts ar hqonia eTnikuri Semadgeneli, magram<br />

aSkarad hqonda politikuri da faseulobiTi xasiaTi da, Sesabamisad, mas arc<br />

mohyolia eTnikuri wmenda. aq, orive mxares, adamianis uflebebis darRveva<br />

mTlianad kriminaluri xasiaTisa iyo, Tumca amgvar darRvevaTa Sedegebi ar iyo<br />

Seuqcevadi da orive mxares rom gamoeCina keTili neba, adviladac daiZleoda.<br />

Sualeduri mdgomareoba aqvT afxazur da samxreT osur konfliqtebs. aq<br />

konfliqtis arc erTi mxare arc Tavidan da arc axla ayenebs srulmasStabiani<br />

eTnikuri wmendis sakiTxs. aravin uaryofs, rom, magaliTad, qarTvelebs (an<br />

megrelebs _ samurzayanosTan dakavSirebiT) aqvT galis an axalgoris<br />

(leningoris) raionebSi cxovrebis ufleba. es ramdenadme iZleva imeds, rom Tu<br />

mTlianad ara, nawilobriv mainc gadawydeba rigi humanitaruli sakiTxebisa.<br />

aseTi nawilobrivi winsvlac ki sasikeTo iqneba, radgan es aucileblad aisaxeba<br />

aTasobiT adamianis cxovrebaze. proeqtebi, romlebic gaTvlilia ama Tu im<br />

problemis srulmasStabian mogvarebaze, ar aris realisturi, rogorc wesi,<br />

konfliqtis mxolod erTi mxaris interesebis realizacias iTvaliswinebs da,<br />

iSviaTi gamonaklisebis garda, 247 aqvT ara humanitaruli, aramed politikuri<br />

miznebi.<br />

mxareebis ZiriTadi mizani, rogorc afxazeTis, ise samxreT-oseTis<br />

konfliqtebSi, aris koreqtireba ara imdenad mosaxleobis eTnikuri<br />

Semadgenlobisa, aramed im rolisa, romelsac esa Tu is eTnosi asrulebs am<br />

regionis marTvaSi. konfliqtebi, principSi, daiwyo `qarTuli~, `osuri~ da<br />

`afxazuri~ (rogorc sakuTar Tavs gansazRvravdnen) elitis doneze.<br />

247 aseTi gamonaklisia, magaliTad, rogorc xorvatiam gadawyvita serbeTis mxaris problema _<br />

serbi mosaxleobis didi nawilis masobrivi gamoZevebiTa da misi darCenili nawilis<br />

marginalizaciiT. amgvar `mogvarebas~ ar mohyolia gare Zalebis negatiuri reaqcia da<br />

zagrebisaTvis aranairi problema ar Seuqmnia. aqve mxolod SevniSnavT, rom serbeTis mxaris<br />

awiokeba moxda am respublikis Camoyalibebidan ramdenime welSi (1991-1995).

---

mogvianebiT es, amave elitebis xelSewyobiT, eTnikuri paradigmisa da xSirad<br />

miTebis donezec ki hpovebda ganviTarebas, konfliqti gadadioda mosaxleobis<br />

farTo fenebze da xSirad sakmaod ulmobel xasiaTsac ki iZenda. anu<br />

konfliqtis yvela mxares ama Tu im doziT arsebuli eTnikuri wmenda iyo Sedegi<br />

elitaTa Soris, da ara adgilobrivi mosaxleobis farTo fenebs Soris,<br />

gamwvavebuli urTierTobisa. amis safuZvelze SegviZlia vivaraudoT, rom<br />

elitaTa (igulisxmeba qarTuli, afxazuri da samxreT oseTis) Soris<br />

urTierTobis gaumjobeseba SesaZloa dadebiTad aisaxos humanitaruli<br />

xasiaTis problemebis mogavrebaze.<br />

ZiriTadi problematika da mxareTa midgomebi am problemebis mosagvareblad<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebuli humanitaruli xasiaTis ZiriTadi<br />

problemebi, ase Tu ise, urTierTdakavSirebulia da Seexeba devnilebs,<br />

romelTa gaCenaca da raodenobis zrdac ganapiroba ramdenime SeiaraRebulma<br />

konfliqtma 1990-2000 ww-Si. amasTan, ar SeiZleba qarTveluri (am termins<br />

viyenebT galis raionis megruli mosaxleobisa da kodoris xeobis svanuri<br />

mosaxleobis faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT) 248 warmoSobis devnilebis sakiTxis<br />

izolireba mTeli rigi sxva sakiTxebisagan. es sakiTxebia:<br />

1. saqarTvelos Sida raionebidan (borjomis, Trusos, pankisis da a.S.)<br />

devnili osebis problema, mSobliur saxlebSi maTi dabrunebis an<br />

Sesaferisi kompensaciis micemis SesaZleblobebi (imis gaTvaliswinebiT,<br />

rom Tavis droze saqarTveloSi miRebulma Sesabamisma kanonma dRemde<br />

ver imuSava). am problemis wamoweva ar niSnavs, rom saqarTvelodan am<br />

xalxis wasvla yovelTvis eTnikuri wmendis Sedegi iyo. umetes<br />

SemTxvevaSi (Tumca ara yovelTvis) es gamowveuli iyo ekonomiuri<br />

mizezebiT.<br />

2. samxreT oseTidan devnili osebis problema _ respublikis datoveba da<br />

gadasaxleba am xalxs (ZiriTadad gadavidnen CrdiloeT oseTSi, aseve<br />

ruseTis sxva regionebSi) marto ekonomikurma gaWirvebam ar aiZula,<br />

isini an saomar moqmedebebs gaeqcnen, <strong>and</strong>a omis dros gaunadgurdaT<br />

saxl-kari da darCnen sacxovreblis gareSe.<br />

3. dabolos, uciloblad iCens Tavs Turqi-mesxebis uflebebisa da<br />

mSobliur adgilebSi maTi dabrunebis SesaZleblobebTan dakavSirebuli<br />

problemebi.<br />

am problemebis warmatebiT mosagvareblad (nawilobriv mainc) midgoma unda<br />

iyos kompleqsuri da Tanmimdevruli, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, yvelaferi<br />

mxolod aSkara politikuri piaris saxes miiRebs.<br />

humanitaruli problemebis mosagvarebeli midgomebis Ziebisas<br />

gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces adamianis uflebebis dacvis sakiTxs,<br />

igulisxmeba dabrunebuli devnilebic da is xalxic, vinc dRes afxazeTsa da<br />

samxreT oseTSi cxovrobs. amasTan, mTavaria mosaxleobis am orive jgufis<br />

usafrTxoeba. mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki SemuSavdeba afxazeTisa da samxreT<br />

oseTis mosaxleobis am ori nawilis erT samoqalaqo sazogadoebaSi integraciis<br />

meqanizmi, SesaZlebeli iqneba ukve am regionebis stabilurobazec<br />

vilaparakoT. naTelia, rom SeuZlebeli iqneba yvela im saxlTan, sadac<br />

afxazeTsa Tu samxreT oseTSi dabrunebuli devnili icxovrebs, milicielisa<br />

248 rusul da msoflio kavkasiaTmcodneobaSi miRebulia qarTvelebis, megrelebis, svanebisa da<br />

lazebis (Wanebis) calkeul, Tumca monaTesave, qarTvelurenovan xalxebad miCneva.<br />

149

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Tu rusi samxedro-mosamsaxuris dayeneba. gasagebia, rom qarTul mxares am<br />

viTarebaSi urCevnia mSvidobis damcvelad rusi jariskacis nacvlad ama Tu im<br />

<strong>for</strong>matSi moqmedi saerTaSoriso Zalebis samxedro mosamsaxures xedavdes,<br />

magram arsebobs angariSgasawevi realiebi _ savaraudo momavalSi afxazeTidan<br />

da samxreT oseTidan rusi samxedroebi ar wavlen, xolo sxva qveynebis samxedro<br />

mosamsaxureebi iq ar gaCndebian. sxvagvarad fiqri ki im fantazias hgavs,<br />

romelic realobas Zalian mowyvetilia.<br />

zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, devnilebis dabrunebis sakiTxis nebismieri saxiT<br />

wamoweva, Tundac devnilTa sul mcire jgufisa, aucileblad unda<br />

iTvaliswinebdes maTi usafrTxoebis aucilebel da SesaZlebel<br />

uzrunvelyofas. Tuki garTulebulia am usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa, aravis<br />

aqvs ufleba, rom devnilebi am gziT sakuTari politikuri TamaSebisaTvis<br />

gamosayenebel mZevlebad aqcios. aseT SemTxvevaSi gamarTlebuli iqneboda<br />

maTTvis sacxovrebelis gamoyofa axal adgilas da kompensaciebis micema. aqve<br />

aRvniSnavT, rom Cveni azriT, viTareba arc iseTi uaryofiTi da uimedoa.<br />

devnilebis problemas, maT SesaZlo dabrunebas mSobliur mxareebSi,<br />

usafrTxoebis aspeqtis garda (romelic Seexeba rogorc dabrunebul, ise<br />

dReisaTvis afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi macxovrebel mosaxleobas), axlavs<br />

mTeli rigi sxva aspeqtebisa. pirveli _ es aris dabrunebul devnilTa SromiTi<br />

mowyoba, maTi uzrunvelyofa Sesaferisi samuSaoTi, rom SeZlon sakuTari<br />

Tavisa da ojaxebis rCena. am sakiTxis mosagvareblad aucilebelia, upirveles<br />

yovlisa, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis adekvaturi ekonomikuri ganviTareba.<br />

aq problemis gadaWris sxva, misaRebi gza ar arsebobs, radgan dabrunebul<br />

devnilTa dasaxlebis garkveuli saxis getod gadaqceva, romelic<br />

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis kmayofaze iarsebebda, iqneboda ukiduresad<br />

upasuxismgeblo da saSiSi nabiji. ekonomikuri proeqtebis realizacia moxsnida<br />

am respublikebSi aqtualur didi xnis problemas _ umuSevrobas. es sakiTxi<br />

ufro did mniSvnelobas SeiZens, Tuki moxdeba devnilTa masobrivi dabruneba.<br />

umuSevroba iqneba niadagi, romelzec gaifurCqneba kriminali da b<strong>and</strong>itizmi am<br />

regionebSi. unda Seiqmnas samuSao adgilebi ara marto dabrunebuli<br />

devnilebisaTvis, aramed afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi axla macxovrebeli<br />

mosaxleobisaTvisac, Tan maqsimaluri mcdelobaa saWiro, rom ar Camoyalibdes<br />

monoeTnikuri sawarmoebi.<br />

meore _ es aris mSobliur enaze ganaTlebis (dawyebiT an saSualo doneze mainc)<br />

miRebis SesaZlebloba. naTelia, rom cxinvali da soxumi ar dauSvebs, rom<br />

axalgorisa da galis raionebSi iswavlebodes TbilisSi dawerili da<br />

gamocemuli saxelmZRvaneloebiT. vfiqrobT, saxelmZRvaneloebi unda Seiqmnas<br />

saerTaSoriso meTvalyureobiT da iq Setanili teqstebi ar unda iyos<br />

mowyvetili arc cxinvalisTvis, arc soxumisa da arc TbilisisaTvis. anu<br />

maqsimalurad unda moxeds ganaTlebis depolitizireba. savsebiT savaraudoa,<br />

rom am SemTxvevaSi samxreT oseTi wamoWris mSobliur enaze ganaTlebis miRebis<br />

SesaZleblobis sakiTxs im osebisTvis, romlebic kompaqturad cxovroben<br />

saqarTvelos Sida regionebSi. maqsimaluri momzadebaa saWiro am sakiTxis<br />

mosagvarebladac.<br />

mesame _ es aris gadaadgilebis Tavisuflebis uzrunvelyofis sakiTxi, anu,<br />

pirvel rigSi, sazRvrispira vaWroba da axali sazRvris orive mxares<br />

naTesavebTan kontaqtis gagrZelebis SesaZleblobebi. dReisaTvis am<br />

mimarTulebiT, konfliqtis yvela mxaris `mondomebiT~, ukiduresad negatiuri<br />

tendencia SeiniSneba.<br />

150

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amrigad, Zalian rTulia qarTvelurenovani mosaxleobis dabrunebis sakiTxi<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi, radgan ukavSiredba mraval momijnave problemas,<br />

aqvs bevri aspeqti, romelTagan yvelas garkveuli, erTmaneTisagan<br />

damoukidebeli mniSvneloba aqvs. Zalian ararealisturi iqneboda<br />

velodebodeT problemis swraf da yovlismomcvel mogvarebas, magram am<br />

mimarTulebiT svla, Tundac neli nabijiT, adamianis uflebaTa primatis<br />

gaTvaliswinebiT, iqneboda mizanSewonili.<br />

axla gadavxedoT konfliqtis mxareebis, anu ZiriTadi moTamaSeebis poziciebs,<br />

romelTac SeuZliaT an xeli Seuwyon devnilebis dabrunebas, an dablokon es<br />

procesi.<br />

didi Secdoma iqneboda imis fiqri, rom afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan<br />

dakavSirebuli nebismieri problemis gasaRebi moskovSi unda veZeboT. moskovis<br />

faqtori, ra Tqma unda, mniSvnelovania, magram ara _ gadamwyveti. es<br />

mniSvneloba moskovma, pirvel rigSi, imiT SeiZina, rom finansurad afxazeTi da<br />

samxreT oseTi ruseTidan sazrdoobs, amas emateba am respublikebis<br />

teritoriebze ganTavsebuli ruseTis armiis mniSvnelovani qvedanayofebi.<br />

amasTan, ama Tu im proeqtis gasatanad Tu TviTaRiarebuli saxelmwifoebis<br />

sazogadoebasa Tu elitaze zewolisaTvis ruseTis SesaZleblobebi sul ufro<br />

mcirdeba, Tumca arc manmade yofila usazRvro (rac aCvena afxazeTSi<br />

saprezidento arCevnebma, rodesac damarcxda `moskoveli~ k<strong>and</strong>idati). ufro<br />

metad afxazeTi, sisustis gamo naklebad _ samxreT oseTi, cdiloben gaataron<br />

damoukidebeli Sida da gare politika da mxolod gardauval situaciaSi<br />

iTvaliswineben ruseTis interesebsa da poziciebs. qarTuli mxare ki, rogorc<br />

wesi, cdilobs, rom swored es ar SeimCnios, radgan soxumsac da cxinvalsac<br />

moskovis satelitebad aRiqvams. es gamartivebuli damokidebuleba<br />

ganpirobebulia mxolod da mxolod Tbilisis uunarobiT, rom uSualo<br />

dialogi awarmoos soxumTan da cxinvalTan, radgan aqvs e.w. `saerTaSoriso<br />

sazogadoebis~ imedi, rom igi imoqmedebs moskovze da ukan daxevas aiZulebs. es<br />

ar Seesabameba sinamdviles, miT umetes, Tuki gaviTvaliswinebT bolo wlis<br />

manZilze rusul-afxazur urTierTobebSi gamovlenil uaryofiT tendencias,<br />

romelSic, Cveni azriT, orive mxares miuZRvis brali. urTierTgaRizianebis<br />

magaliTebis CamoTvlac ki sakmarisia: diskusia XIX saukuneSi afxazeTis<br />

ruseTTan SeerTebis Taobaze, ra bedi elis `ruseTis moqalaqeTa~ kerZo qonebas<br />

afxazeTSi, qarTul-afxazuri sazRvris dacvidan afxazi samxedro<br />

mosamsaxureebis gamoyvana, sanatoriuli kompleqs `soxumis~ bedi, afxazurrusuli<br />

sazRvris demarkacia, dasaxleba aibgas kuTvnileba da a.S. Tavis mxriv,<br />

moskovi ukmayofiloa, rom ise ver akontrolebs afxazeTisken mimarTul<br />

finansur nakadebs, rogorc unda. afxazeTi ki cdilobs mravalveqtoriani<br />

sagareo politikis gatarebas, rasac mowmobs soxumis axlaxan gaaqtiurebuli<br />

kontaqtebi TurqeTTan da israelTan. es ar niSnavs, rom ruseTs ama Tu im<br />

proeqtis ganxorcielebisas ar SeuZlia gavlena iqonios viTarebaze am<br />

respublikebSi, magram es gavlena ar aris usazRvro. SeTavazebuli<br />

gansaxorcielebeli proeqtebi (igulisxmeba humanitaruli sferoc) unda iyos<br />

naTlad da droulad gaTvlili. imisaTvis, rom ruseTi dainteresdes afxazeTsa<br />

Tu samxreT oseTSi ama Tu im humanitaruli proeqtis realizaciiT, saWiroa<br />

moskovis darwmuneba, rom am proeqtis realizacia ase Tu ise Seesabameba<br />

ruseTis interesebs. aq arsebobs ramndenime SesaZlo varianti. pirveli, moskovi<br />

ueWvelad aris dainteresebuli Tavisi, rogorc adamianis uflebebze<br />

mzrunveli demokratiuli qveynis, imijis srulyofiTa da mxardaWeriT. garda<br />

amisa, moskovisaTvis ufro xelsayreli iqneboda mokavSireebad hyoloda<br />

dadebiTi imijis demokratiuli saxelmwifoebi. meore _ kremls naklebad<br />

moundeboda afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi monoeTnikuri da nacionalisturi<br />

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sazogadoeba, radgan aseTi ganviTareba negatiurad aisaxeboda viTarebaze<br />

mTel CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi. situaciis cota utrirebiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom<br />

qarTvelurenovani umciresoba afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi SeiZleboda<br />

kremlisaTvis soxumsa da cxinvalze zewolis iaraRad gadaqceuliyo.<br />

swored imijis sakiTxma SeiZleba imoqmedos da darwmundnen afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis xelmZRvanelobebi, rom mizanSewonilia humanitaruli<br />

problemebis mogvarebis procesSi pozitiuri nabijebis gadadgma. soxumi da<br />

cxinvali udavod unda iyvnen dainteresebuli imiT, Tu rogor uyureben maT<br />

saerTaSoriso oragnizaciebi, magram mxolod es mizezi ar kmara maTi<br />

poziciebis Sesacvlelad. soxumi da cxinvali jerjerobiT mxolod iTmenen maT<br />

mier kontrolirebad teritoriebze (pirvel rigSi, galisa da leningoris<br />

raionebSi) qarTveluri erovnuli umciresobebis arsebobas. am mosaxleobis<br />

gamoZeveba Tundac imitom ar aris gamiznuli, rom rTuli demografiuli<br />

viTarebis gamo arc aravinaa am regionebSi maT Casanacvlebladac. amasTan,<br />

soxumsa da cxinvals unda, rom ara mxolod SezRuduli raodenoba iyos<br />

qarTveluri mosaxleobisa, aramed rom isini loialurad ekidebodnen<br />

adgilobriv xelisuflebas. am miznebis gansaxorcielebeli saSualebaa eTnikur<br />

qarTvelTa pasportizacia, romelic intensivobis sxvadasxva xarisxiT orive<br />

respublikaSi tardeba. amasTan, mTavaria galisa da leningoris mosaxleobam<br />

miiRos afxazuri Tu samxreT oseTis moqalaqis pasportebi da Tvals xuWaven,<br />

Tuki am xalxs qarTuli pasportic unarCundeba. Sesabamisad, TavianT<br />

respublikaSi xmis micemis uflebas miiReben, rac perspeqtivaSi SeiZleba iq<br />

arsebuli sistemisaTvis safrTxes warmoadgendes. amitom afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis mTavrobebi ar apireben am raionebis mosaxleobis sayovelTao<br />

da ZaldatanebiT pasportizacias. maT ufro aZlevs xels, Tuki<br />

qarTvelurenovani mosaxleobis nawili datovebs am respublikebs da gadava<br />

saqarTveloSi, nawili ki miiRebs raRac tipis `binadrobis mowmobas~, riTac<br />

arCevnebSi monawileobis ufleba ar eqneba. aseve arcTu usafuZvlod (amgvari<br />

precedenti ukve sakmaod xSiria) gaTvla aris imazec, rom galisa da leningoris<br />

mosaxleobis nawili `gaixsenebs~ Tavis afxazur Tu osur warmomavlobas da<br />

afxazad an osad Caewereba. amasTan dakavSirebiT aRsaniSnavia, rom aSkarad<br />

daweuli Cans raodenoba leningoris raionSi mcxovrebi eTnikurad qarTveli<br />

zrdasruli mosaxleobisa _ 1800 adamiani, rasac dResdReobiT cxinvalSi<br />

axmaureben. aseT SemTxvevaSi leningoris raionSi macxovrebeli yvela<br />

qarTveli, bavSvebis CaTvliT, 3000-s ar unda aWarbebdes. es cifri aSkarad<br />

Semcirebulia, Tumca kargad aCvenebs, Tu ramden qarTvels itans cxinvalis<br />

xelisufleba Tavis mier kontrolirebad teritoriaze.<br />

paradoqsulia, magram am sakiTxSi cxinvalisa da Tbilisis (SeiZleba soxumisa da<br />

Tbilisisac) interesebi erTmaneTs emTxveva. is, rasac dRes qarTuli mxare<br />

akeTebs, mowmobs imas, rom oficialuri Tbilisi dainteresebulia, rom<br />

qarTvelebma mTlianad datovon leningoris (axalgoris) raioni. am adgilidan<br />

gamosaxlebulebs sTavazoben SeRavaTebs, sacxovrebels, subsidiebs da Tanac<br />

arwmuneben, rom es `devniloba~ droebiTia. aseTi politika naklebad unda<br />

Seesabamebodes saqarTvelos erovnul interesebs. piriqiT, galisa da<br />

leningoris (axalgoris) raionebSi mniSvnelovani raodenobis qarTuli<br />

mosaxleobis SenarCunebiT, am xalxis adaptaciiT axal damoukidebel<br />

saxelmwifoSi, maTi loialurobiT soxumisa da cxinvalis mTavrobebis mimarT,<br />

maTi srulfasovani monawileobiT arCevnebsa da referendumebSi Tbilisi<br />

perspeqtivaSi miiRebda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis xelmZRvanelobaze<br />

zemoqmedebis seriozul berketebs. samwuxarod, postsabWoTa politikosebs ar<br />

axasiaTebT perspeqtivaze fiqri.<br />

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mudmivad dagvianebulia iniciativebi, romelTac qarTuli mxare periodulad<br />

iCens. es dagvianeba xSirad sakmaod gvariania _ daaxloebiT 10-15-wliT.<br />

ukanaskneli aseTi saCvenebeli dagvianebuli iniciativa iyo afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis mosaxleobisaTvis e.w. `neitraluri pasportebis~ gacema. 1990iani<br />

wlebis bolos gaerom wamoayena analogiuri idea, magram es maSin<br />

saqarTvelom dabloka, xolo afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mmarTveloba,<br />

romelTac ar hqondaT TavianTi mosaxleobisaTvis ruseTis pasportebis<br />

gacemis SesaZlebloba, daeTanxma am variants, gansakuTrebiT im viTarebaSi,<br />

rodesac iniciativa gareodan modioda. aseTi iniciativis realizacia, pirvel<br />

rigSi, agvaridebda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mosaxleobis Semdgom<br />

paspotizacias ruseTis mxridan, xolo, meore, aCvenebda, rom Tbilisi<br />

realuradaa SeSfoTebuli orive regionSi mcxovrebi xalxis uflebaTa dacviT,<br />

maT Soris _ Tavisufali gadaadgilebis uflebiT. dRev<strong>and</strong>el pirobebSi<br />

afxazeTis mcxovreblebs ar sWirdebaT raime tipis axali piradobis<br />

damadasturebeli sabuTebi _ rusuli sazRvargareTis pasportebiT maT<br />

SeuZliaT advilad da kanonierad gadaadgileba mTel msoflioSi. amasTan<br />

dakavSirebiT sruliad gaugebaria, ratom moixsenia saqarTvelos saxelmwifo<br />

ministrma reintegraciis sakiTxebSi e. tyeSelaSvilma es rusuli pasportebi<br />

`aralegitimurad~. afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mosaxleobisaTvis ruseTis<br />

pasportebis gacema sruliad Seesatyviseba saerTaSoriso praqtikas da amaze<br />

Tvalebis daxuWva ar Seesabameba realobas. gavixsenoT, magaliTad, moldovis<br />

mosaxleobisaTvis ruminuli pasportebis darigeba, ungrulisa _ dRev<strong>and</strong>eli<br />

ungreTis gareT mcxovrebi ungrelebisaTvis, estonurisa _ fskovis olqis<br />

peCoris raionis mcxovreblebisTvis. arc erT am SemTxvevaSi ar yofila<br />

SeTanxmeba am qveynebis ormag moqalaqeobaze. garda amisa, afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis mosaxleobis didi nawili arc arasdros yofila saqarTvelos<br />

moqalaqe, yvela iyo ssrk-is moqalaqe. rusuli kanonmdeblobiT ki (rogorc<br />

viciT, ruseTi aris ssrk-is kanonmemkvidre) yofili sabWoTa kavSiris<br />

moqalaqeebs, romelTac ar miuRiaT sxva, aRiarebuli qveynis moqalaqeoba,<br />

ufleba aqvT miiRon ruseTis moqalaqeoba. is, rom es ufleba ar realizda<br />

elcinis mmarTvelobis periodSi, ganapiroba im dros moskovis mier<br />

gatarebulma afxazeTis blokadisa da `ekonomikuri daxrCobis~ politikam.<br />

amgvarad, saqarTvelos Tu sxvaTa nebismieri pretenzia, romelic exeba<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis pasportizaciis sakiTxs, aris ganzrax<br />

mofiqrebuli da ar iTvaliswinebs mravalricxovan saerTaSoriso precedents.<br />

sxva faqtori, romelic qarTuli mxaris winadadebas aufasurebs, aris is, rom<br />

igi modis ara saerTaSoriso organizaciebidan, aramed Tbilisidan. aseve<br />

ararealuria is, risi imedic e. tyeSelaSvils aqvs, rom ToTqos afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis axalgazrdebi aseTi sabuTebiT SeZleben miiRon sazRvargareT<br />

swavlis dafinanseba saqarTvelos prezidentis fondidan an sxva oficialuri<br />

programebidan. aucileblad unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom aseTi axalgazrdebi<br />

romc moiZebnon, isini winaaRmdegobas sakuTar sazogadoebaSive gadaawydebian.<br />

naTlad Cans, rom es iniciativa imTaviTve uSedego iyo da wamoswies ara<br />

gansaxorcieleblad, aramed mxolod piarisaTvis.<br />

miuxedavad miRebuli dokumentebisa da zogierTi deklaraciisa, saqarTvelos<br />

xelmZRvaneloba ganagrZobs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis izolacias, rac<br />

naklebad unda Seesabamebodes Tbilisis Sorsmimaval interesebs. saqarTvelos<br />

mTavrobis mier SemuSavebuli strategia, sadac imTaviTve ar iyo gadaWrili<br />

zogierTi sakiTxi, sinamdvileSi ar ganxorcieldeba (rasac zogi qarTveli<br />

eqspertic aRiarebs). saqarTvelos mxris avliT afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi<br />

ucxoelebis Sesvlis (saqarTvelodan ki maTi Sesvla praqtikulad<br />

SeuZlebelia), aseve ucxoelebis saqarTveloSi afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTidan<br />

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Sesvlis akrZalva ukiduresad uaryofiTad aisaxeba saqarTvelos imijze ara<br />

mxolod sxva qveynebis mosaxleobis TvalSi, aramed, rac ufro mniSvnelovania,<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazogadoebaTa TvalSic. naTelia, rom amgvari<br />

politika amarTlebs afxazeTis, samxreT oseTisa da ruseTis xelisuflebaTa<br />

qmedebebs TviTgamocxadebul respublikebsa da saqarTvelos Soris sazRvris<br />

faqtobriv CaiketvasTan dakavSirebiT, ris Sedegadac galisa da axalgoris<br />

mcxovreblebs realurad TiTqmis aRar aqvT saSualeba, rom wavidnen<br />

saqarTveloSi da ukanac dabrundnen. aseTi SezRudva, ra Tqma unda, aris<br />

adamianis uflebebis darRveva, magram am SemTxvevaSi es saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebis wamowyebaa.<br />

piriqiT, Cveni warmodgeniT, saqarTvelos interesSi iqneboda gare<br />

samyarosaTvis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis `gaxsnis~ politika. aseTi<br />

politika aCvenebda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazogadoebas, rom<br />

saqarTvelos xelisufleba da qarTuli elita marTlac zrunavs afxazebisa da<br />

osebis uflebebze , mzad arian gaiTvaliswinon maTi ineteresebi, samomavlod<br />

maT ar uyureben, rogorc `meore xarisxis~ adamianebs, romlebmac umjobesia<br />

datovon erTiani saqarTvelos teritoria, da maT saerTo qveynis<br />

Tanabaruflebian moqalaqeebad aRiqvamen. aqve unda gavixsenoT qarTveli<br />

oficialuri pirebis mier gakeTebuli, rbilad rom vTqvaT, gaufrTxilebeli<br />

gancxadebebi gamoyofil regionebSi macxovrebelTa pasportizaciis periodSi,<br />

rom gaxdnen ra ruseTis moqalaqeebi, es xalxi unda gadavides sacxovreblad<br />

ruseTSi.<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis warmodgenaSi saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg moqmedebs<br />

aseve sakmaod gaxmaurebuli sakamaTo `samecniero~ naSromebi (dawerili ara<br />

mxolod qarTul enaze), sadac dasabuTebulia `samaCabloSi~ Tu Sida qarTlSi<br />

osebis cota xnis win mosvlis hipoTeturi mosazreba, aseve p. ingoroyvas<br />

Sromebi afxazebis Sesaxeb, rasac afxazebi ASeuracxyofad iReben. Tuki am<br />

Sromebs (maTi Sedareba SeiZleba v.b. vinogradovis sakamaTo naSromebTan<br />

ruseTis SemadgenlobaSi CeCneTis nebayoflobiTi Sesvlis Taobaze) qarTuli<br />

elita, qarTuli sazogaoeba, qarTveli istorikosebi saTanadod ar Seafaseben,<br />

SeuZlebeli iqneba qarTvelTa da afxazTa, <strong>and</strong>ac qarTevlTa da osTa Serigebaze<br />

laparaki.<br />

aucileblad unda aRiniSnos, rom evrokavSirma dReisaTvis Secvala Tavisi<br />

damokidebuleba afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mimarT. es pozicia xdeba ufro<br />

awon-dawonili da realisturi, radgan afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

damoukidebloba ukve xangrZlivi movlenaa, ruseTi Tavis aRiarebas ukan ar<br />

waiRebs da amitomac evrokavSirma unda aawyos urTierToba afxazeTTan da<br />

samxreT oseTTan, aRiarebs ra maT de faqto. es midgoma naCvenebia 2011 wlis 7<br />

aprils evroparlamentis mier miRebul rezoluciaSi `evropuli samezoblo<br />

politikis reziume~. es rezolucia pirdapir gvTavazobs `samoqalaqo<br />

kulturisa da TemTaSorisi dialogis mxaradsaWerad separatistuli<br />

teritoriebis araRiarebuli saxelmwifoebis sazogadoebebTan urTierTobis<br />

damyarebas~. amrigad, marTalia, rezolucias aqvs sarekomendacio xasiaTi,<br />

magram mainc unda aRiniSnos evrokavSiris mxridan gazrdili yuradReba<br />

araRiarebul Tu naxevrad aRiarebul saxelmwifoebTan dialogis gamarTvis<br />

aucileblobis mimarT. Cveni warmodgeniT, SesaZloa, aseTi daskvna<br />

moulodneli aRmoCndes, magram evrokavSiris poziciis amgvari cvlileba<br />

xelsayrelia TviT saqarTvelosTvis. afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

sazogadoebaTa dasavleTis mxridan izolacia aZlierebs da amyarebs am<br />

regionebis ruseTze damokidebulebas. maTi dasavleTTan dialogSi CarTva ki<br />

piriqiT zrdis evrokavSiris SesaZleblobebs, gavlena iqonios rogorc am<br />

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espublikebis sazogadoebaTa, ise xelmZRvanelTa poziciebze. is, rom<br />

afxazeTisa (gansakuTrebiT) da samxreT oseTis xelmZRvaneloba<br />

dainteresebulia evrokavSirTan dialogiT, mdgomareobas amsubuqebs. amrigad,<br />

evrokavSiris roli, rogorc afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis elitaze<br />

zegavlenis faqtorisa, SeiZleba gaizardos.<br />

arsebuli problemebis mosagvareblad aucilebelia yvela im ZiriTadi mxaris<br />

interesebis maqsimaluri harmonizaciis miRweva, romelTac saSualeba aqvT<br />

gavlena moaxdinon afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis viTarebaze. es mxareebi, Cveni<br />

warmodgeniT, aris ruseTi, samxreT oseTi, afxazeTi, saqarTevlo, evrokavSiri.<br />

yvela es moTamaSe dainteresebuli unda iyos humanitaruli problemebis<br />

mogvarebiT, anu an saerTo interesebi unda hqondeT, <strong>and</strong>a realuri safuZveli<br />

imedisaTvis, rom raRac sargebels miiReben. ararealuria imedis damyareba<br />

`mxareTa keTil nebaze~, <strong>and</strong>a _ rom Seigneben adamianis uflebaTa primats.<br />

aucileblad unda Seiqmnas pirobebi imisaTvis, rom adamianis uflebaTa dacva<br />

da humanitaruli problemebis mogvareba xelsayreli gaxdes am procesis yvela<br />

dainteresebuli mxarisaTvis.<br />

problemebis mogvarebis SesaZlo variantebi<br />

rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna, ararealuria afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi<br />

devnilebis srulmasStabian dabrunebaze fiqri. ueWvelia, rom usafrTxoebis<br />

uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebis gamo am etapze devnilebis dabruneba SesaZlebelia<br />

mxolod monoeTnikur, megrul galis raionSi, didi xnis win svanebiT<br />

dasaxlebul kodoris xeobis zeda nawilSi 249 da aseve leningoris (axalgoris)<br />

raionis praqtikulad monoeTnikur aRmosavleT nawilSi (dasavleTi nawili,<br />

romlis centria sofeli winagari, ZiriTadad osebiTaa dasaxlebuli da<br />

kontroldeba cxinvalidan). manam, sanam afxazeTis sxva raionebSi devnilebis<br />

dabrunebis sakiTxze gadavalT, aucilebelia gairkves viTareba devnilTa<br />

raodenobasTan da maTi sacxovrebel qveynebTan dakavSirebiT, aseve<br />

humanitaruli daxmarebis nakadebs mohyves gaZlierebuli kontroli.<br />

afxazeTidan devnilTa raodenoba aris ara 300 aTasi, rogorc amtkiceben<br />

saqarTvelos oficialuri pirebi, aramed gacilebiT naklebi. 250 amasTan,<br />

devnilebis dayofa SeiZleba jgufebad, rac Seamsubuqebs maT dabrunebasTan Tu<br />

axal sacxovrebelSi integraciasTan dakavSirebul musaobas. amrigad,<br />

afxazeTidan (rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna, galis raionis axal sazRvrebsa da<br />

kodoris xeobis zemo nawilSi macxovreblebis garda) devnilebs Soris<br />

gamoiyofa Semdegi jgufebi:<br />

1. afxazeTSi kompaqturad macxovrebeli qarTvelebi, romelTa winaprebic<br />

am regionSi XIX saukunis bolos da XX saukunis dasawyisSi Casaxldnen.<br />

es, pirvel rigSi, aris soxumis (akapa, anu odiSi; gualZa, anu pavlovskoe;<br />

Wablarxa, anu linda; guma, anu Sroma da sxv.), gulrifSis (babuSera,<br />

baRmarani, boRopoSta, marxauli, anu merxauli, fSafi, Zidakuara, anu<br />

ganaxleba) 251 , oCamCiris (naa; ilori; axuri, anu oxurei; gudaa, anu<br />

249 aq viTarebas aadvilebs rogorc kodoris xeobis zemo nawilSi SemorCenili svanuri<br />

mosaxleoba (120-140 kaci), ise rusi samxedroebisa da afxazeTis Sss-is moqmedebebi xeobis zemo<br />

nawilSi sacxovrebeli fondisa da iqidan wasuli mosaxleobis qonebis SesanarCuneblad.<br />

250 saqarTvelos eqspertTa wreebSi xSirad aris laparaki yovlad usafuZvlo miTebze<br />

afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mosaxleobis raodenobasTan dakavSirebiT. dasaxelebuli<br />

cifrebi ukiduresad daweulia.<br />

251 gulrifSis raionis aq CamoTvlili soflebis umravlesobis mosaxleoba tradiciulad iyo<br />

Sereuli.<br />

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gudava; aCigvara, anu aTSguara; SeSeleTi, anu SCaSCikit) 252 tyvarCelis<br />

(bedia; carce; muxuri; oqumi; CxorToli; RumriSi, anu zemo RumuriSi;<br />

farToRali) raionis megruli da qarTuli mosaxleoba (XIX saukunis<br />

bolodan).<br />

2. sxva erovnebis mosaxleobiT garSemortymuli (rogorc soflebSi, ise<br />

qalaqebSi) qarTvelebi, romelTa winaprebic raionSi XIX saukunis bolo<br />

mesamedidan XX saukunis pirvel mesamedamde Casaxldnen.<br />

3. kompaqturad Casaxlebuli qarTvelebi, romelTa winaprebic regionSi<br />

sabWoTa periodSi, l. berias mier gatarebuli gadasaxlebis politikis<br />

dros gadmosaxldnen.<br />

4. sxva erovnebebTan erTad macxovrebeli qarTvelebi (soflebSic da<br />

qalaqebSic), romlebic regionSi XX saukunis meore naxevarSi<br />

dasaxldnen.<br />

samxreT oseTis devnilebic SeiZleba analogiurad davyoT. Tumca iqauri<br />

jgufebi raodenobrivad naklebi iqneba. 2004 wlidan ganviTarebuli movlenebis<br />

Sedegad cxinvalis CrdiloeTiT mdebare anklavebis (qurTa, kexvi, TamaraSeni,<br />

aCabeTi, qemerti, zarcemi) macxovrebeli qarTvelebi mZevlebad iqcnen. rac maT<br />

SeemTxva, mxolod saqarTvelos axl<strong>and</strong>eli xelisuflebis bralia. 2008 wels, am<br />

anklavebis faqtobrivi ganadgurebis Semdeg, iq macxovrebeli xalxis<br />

dabrunebaze laparaki, rbilad rom vTqvaT, ararealisturia. cxinvalisa da<br />

znauris raionebis teritoriebis sxva qarTuli soflebis mimarT midgoma<br />

SeiZleba ufro diferencirebuli iyos. 2008 wlis Semdeg iq darCa nawili<br />

qarTuli mosaxleobisa, magram zust cifrebze laparaki Znelia.<br />

mTavari yuradReba unda daeTmos devnilTa pirveli jgufis dabrunebas; maTi<br />

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa advilia, xolo am xalxis urTierToba<br />

adgilobriv mosaxleobasTan qarTul-afxazur dapirispirebamde ar iyo<br />

konfliqturi. Tumca aq dauSvebelia rezervaciis Seqmna _ yvela dabrunebuls<br />

unda hqondes Tavisuflad gadaadgilebis ufleba rogorc mTel afxazeTSi, ise<br />

saqarTvelosa da ruseTSi. zogadad, devnilTa dabrunebis sakiTxSi prioriteti<br />

eniWeba rogorc maTi usafrTxoebis dacvas, ise im mosaxleobis usafrTxobas,<br />

romelsac afxazeTi ar dautovebia. devnilTa meore da meoTxe jgufebis<br />

dabruneba ufro problemuria: savaraudod, am jgufebis bevri warmomadgeneli<br />

aRarc moindomebs dabrunebas an ver dabrundeba usafrTxoebis SiSiT. mesame<br />

jgufis dabruneba ki naklebadaa SesaZlebeli, radgan gamoiwvevs regionSi<br />

viTarebis gamwvavebas da xelaxal SeiaraRebul dapirispirebas. am devnilTa<br />

dabruneba safrTxis winaSe daayenebs maTsave sicocxles da SesaZloa<br />

respublikaSic gamoiwvios qaosi. ori azri ar aris, rom am jgufis<br />

warmomadgenlebs sWirdebaT daxmareba, raTa saqarTvelos an sxva qveynis<br />

romelime regionSi damkvidrdnen.<br />

unda Sedges siebi, sadac aRricxuli iqneba rogorc yvela devnili, ise isini,<br />

visac unda afxazeTSi dabruneba. visac dabruneba ar surs, unda mieces<br />

Sesabamisi kompensacia, moxdes maTi qarTul sazogadoebaSi an im sazogadoebaSi<br />

integracia, sadac axla cxovroben. amasTan, devnilebisaTvis humanitaruli<br />

daxmarebis darigeba da kompensaciebis micema unda moxdes saerTaSoriso donis<br />

kontroliT.<br />

252 oCamCiris raionis aq CamoTvlili soflebi, garda naasi da ilorisa, aseve qvemoT moyvanili<br />

tyvarCelis raionis soflebi, adre Sediodnen galis raionSi.<br />

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aucilebelia qarTveli devnilebis qonebis inventarizacia afxazeTSi,<br />

darCenili sacxovrebeli fondis gamovlena, im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tuki qarTuli<br />

mosaxleobis wamosvlis Semdeg am qonebas sxvebi daepatronen. Tuki im pirebs,<br />

vinc am qonebas daepatronen, sacxovreblebi saomari moqmedebebis Sedegad<br />

gaunadgurdaT, saerTaSoriso organizaciebma unda aunazRauron danakargis<br />

safasuri. dauSvebelia im adamianebis meqanikuri gamoyra, vinc axla qarTvelTa<br />

Tu sxva eris xalxTa uwindel saxlebSi cxovrobs. yvela konkretuli SemTxveva<br />

unda mogvardes mTeli mravaleTnikuri afxazeTis mosaxleobis uflebaTa<br />

dacviT.<br />

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi qarTveli devnilebis dabruneba unda<br />

ukavSirdebodes osi devnilebisa da Turqi-mesxebis dabrunebis sakiTxebis<br />

mogvarebas. saqarTvelom unda Seasrulos Turqi-mesxebis winaSe aRebuli<br />

valdebuleba, pirv<strong>and</strong>el sacxovreblebSi maT dabrunebasTan dakavSirebiT.<br />

xeli unda Seuwyos osi devnilebis saqarTveloSi dabrunebasac da maTTvis<br />

zaralis anazRaurebas, aseve maTTvis rekvizirebuli sacxovrebeli fondis<br />

dabrunebasac.<br />

dabolos, ar unda dagvaviwydes, rom konfliqtis Semdeg, 1992-1993 ww.-Si,<br />

afxazeTi ekonomikuri siduxWiris mizeziT datova ara mxolod qarTuli<br />

mosaxleobis mniSvnelovanma nawilma, aramed sakmao raodenobis rusebma,<br />

somxebma da berZnebma _ 20 aTasze metma rusma, daaxloebiT 15 aTasma somexma da<br />

10 aTasze metma berZenma. maTi umravlesoba dRes cxovrobs ara saqarTveloSi,<br />

aramed sxva saxelmwifoTa teritoriebze. yvela maTgans unda mieces<br />

SesaZlebloba, rom dabrundes afxazeTSi, xolo Tu ar moindomeben, unda<br />

SeunarCundeT sakuTreba an miiRon kompensacia. am xalxis siebis Sesadgenad,<br />

maTi amJamindeli adgilsamyofelis gansasazRvrad, afxazeTSi darCenili maTi<br />

qonebis bedis gasarkvevad, im devnilebis gamosavlenad, visac unda regionSi<br />

dabruneba, saWiroa xangrZlivi da gegmazomieri muSaoba.<br />

devnilebis dabrunebasTan erTad unda moxdes maTi registracia mudmivi<br />

sacxovreblis mixedviT. garda amisa, ukve unda daregistrirdes yvela<br />

dabrunebuli, aseve galis is macxovreblebi, romelTac arasodes dautovebiaT<br />

TavianTi saxlebi (es exeba leningoris raionsac). amgvarad SesaZlebeli gaxdeba<br />

Tavi avaridoT viTarebas, roca faqtobrivad dabrunebuli xalxi mainc iRebs<br />

humanitarul da devnilis daxmarebas.<br />

amrigad, devnilebis dabrunebisa da/an maTi integraciis sakiTxi aris rTuli<br />

problemebis nazavi, romelsac esaWiroeba kompleqsuri mogvareba. TiToeul<br />

dabrunebuls unda hqondes yvela ZiriTadi uflebis _ usafrTxoebis,<br />

muSaobis, sakuTrebis, gadaadgilebis Tavisuflebis _ garantia. vfiqrobT, am<br />

sakiTxze unda muSaobdes gansakuTrebuli saerTaSoriso organo, romelic<br />

damoukidebeli iqneba yvela dainteresebuli mxarisagan. amrigad,<br />

mizanSewonili iqneboda mravalmxrivi komisiis Seqmna, sadac monawileobas<br />

miiRebdnen gaeros, euTos, evrokavSiris, saqarTvelos, ruseTis, afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTis warmomadgenlebi.<br />

rekomendaciebi<br />

miuxedavad garkveuli negatiuri tendenciebisa, rac xels uSlis humanitaruli<br />

sakiTxebis mogvarebas, bolo dros SeiniSneba pozitiuri momentebic, rac<br />

ukavSirdeba saqarTvelos afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazRvrebze<br />

stabilurobis damkvidrebas. es, ra Tqma unda, ganpirobebulia rogorc am<br />

regionebSi ruseTis samxedro dajgufebebis gaZlierebiT, ise mimdinare<br />

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procesebis realisturi SefasebebiT, rac am bolo dros saqarTvelos<br />

xelisuflebisgan ismis. amasTan, raRac doziT pozitiurad imoqmeda Jenevis<br />

molaparakebaTa procesmac, romelic exeboda saqarTvelo-afxazeTisa da<br />

saqarTvelo-samxreT oseTis sazRvrebTan incidentebis erToblivi aRkveTisa<br />

da sapasuxo meqanizmebis Seqmnas da romlis muSaobamac regularuli saxe miiRo.<br />

mizanSewonili iqneba am gamocdilebis momavalSi gamoyenebac, magaliTad, roca<br />

Seiqmneba devnilTa dabrunebis sakiTxebze momuSave zemoT naxsenebi<br />

mravalmxrivi komisia, sadac monawileobas miiReben gaeros, euTos,<br />

evrokavSiris, saqarTvelos, ruseTis, afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />

warmomadgenlebi. amisaTvis, pirvel rigSi, saWiroa gaeros da evrokavSiris<br />

keTili neba, radgan komisia unda iyos saerTaSoriso organo.<br />

humanitaruli problemebis warmatebiT mogvarebisTvis gansakuTrebiT bevri<br />

unda gaakeTos saqarTvelom, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, am sakiTxebis<br />

gadasawyvetad didi interesi ar iqneba ruseTSi, afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi.<br />

ar aris sasurveli, rom am mimarTulebiT muSaoba mxolod fuWi laparakiT<br />

Semoifarglos; ra Tqma unda, dainteresebulma mxareebma Tavi unda aaridon<br />

agresiul ritorikas, aq pozitiuri faqtoria afxazeTis, saqarTvelos da<br />

samxreT oseTis prezidentebis calmxrivi gancxadebebi Zalis gamouyeneblobis<br />

Taobaze. gacilebiT ufro gamarTlebuli iqneboda saerTaSoriso garantiebis<br />

safuZvelze Sesabamisi ormxrivi SeTanxmebis dadeba. qarTulma mxarem<br />

Sesworebebi unda Seitanos kanonmdeblobaSi da unda Secvalos normebi,<br />

romlebic xels uSlis ucxoeli moqalaqeebis afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi<br />

Sesvlas da gamosvlas. realurad saqarTvelom Tavis erovnuli interesebis<br />

farglebSi mniSvnelovani nabiji unda gadadgas _ de faqto aRiaros afxazeTi<br />

da samxreT oseTi. evrokavSiri ukve mzadaa da apirebs kidec am nabijis<br />

gadadgmas. saqarTvelos interesebSi ar aris `dagvianebuli~ politikis<br />

gagrZeleba. de faqto aRiareba iqceva mniSvnelovan stimulad afxazeTisa da<br />

samxreT oseTisaTvis da aiZulebs iqaur xelisuflebebs wavidnen garkveul<br />

daTmobebze.<br />

yvela dainteresebulma mxarem unda imoqmedos, rom konfliqtis zonebSi<br />

dabrundnen euTos damkvirveblebi. xelaxla unda SemuSavdes maTi muSaobis<br />

<strong>for</strong>mebi da m<strong>and</strong>ati, kazuistikurma <strong>for</strong>mulirebebma amas xeli ar unda<br />

SeuSalos. anu gamoyenebuli <strong>for</strong>mulirebebi unda iyos maqsimalurad<br />

neitraluri da misaRebi yvela mxarisaTvis.<br />

devnilTa dabrunebaze samuSaod kargi iqneboda sapilote regionis arCeva.<br />

erTi mxriv, aseT regionad gamodgeboda kodoris xeoba, magram iq dagegmili<br />

Cerqeski-soxumis saavtomobilo gzisa Tu sxavdasxva rusuli samxedro<br />

obieqtis mSeneblobis gamo moskovi iZulebuli iqneba win aRudges regionSi<br />

ucxoeli damkvirveblebis Semosvlas. amis gaTvaliswinebiT, vfiqrobT, rom<br />

aseT sapilote regionad umjobesia an axalgoris (leningoris), <strong>and</strong>a oCamCiris<br />

raionis zemoT dasaxelebuli soflebis arCeva.<br />

daskvna<br />

afxazeTTan da samxerT oseTTan dakavSirebuli humanitaruli xasiaTis<br />

ZiriTadi problemebi ase Tu ise ukavSiredba devnilebis problemebs da maTi<br />

dabrunebis sakiTxebs. amave dros es sakiTxi dakavSirebulia problemebis mTel<br />

rigTanac (saqarTvelos Sida raionebidan devnili osebi, samxreT<br />

saqarTvelodan devnili osebi, Turqi-mesxebis uflebebi), aqvs ramdenime<br />

mniSvnelovani da damoukidebeli aspeqti (usafrTxoeba, SromiTi mowyobisa da<br />

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Sesaferisi gasamrjelos miRebis ufleba, mSobliur enaze ganaTlebis miRebis<br />

ufleba, gadaadgilebis ufleba) da aris sakmaod rTuli. am procesSi<br />

konfliqtis mxareebisa da ZiriTadi moTamaSeebis poziciebi naklebad<br />

konstruqciulia, Tumca aqvT garkveuli dinamika, zogjer _ dadebiTic.<br />

arsebuli problemebis gadasaWrelad aucilebelia mxareTa interesebis<br />

maqsimalurad harmonizeba, saWiroa maTi darwmuneba, rom aqvT saerTo mxareebi<br />

da unda moxdes yvela mxaris daintereseba. amgvarad, adamianis uflebaTa dacva<br />

da humanitaruli problemebis gadaWra xelsayreli unda iyos konfliqtis<br />

yvela mxarisTvis.<br />

ararealuri iqneboda gvefiqra, rom SesaZlebelia yvela humanitaruli<br />

problemis mogvareba da devnilebis srulmasStabiani dabruneba. am etapze<br />

devnilebis dabrunebaze laparaki SeiZleba mxolod galisa da leningoris<br />

(aRmosavleT nawilSi) monoeTnikur raionebSi, aseve _ kodoris xeobis zeda<br />

nawilSi. devnilebis dabrunebis mimarTulebiT Semdgomi muSaobisaTvis,<br />

imisaTvis, rom devnilebs mieceT SesaZlo kompensacia da daculi iyos maTi<br />

uflebebi, saWiroa rogorc yvela devnilis zusti da arapolitizirebuli<br />

aRricxva, anu maTi realuri raodenobis gansazRvra, ise maTi dayofa garkveul<br />

pirobiT jgufebad. gTavazobT afxazeTidan devnilebis oTx jgufad dayofas,<br />

analogiuri samuSao SeiZleba Catardes samxreT oseTisaTvisac. afxazeTis<br />

SemTxvevaSi es aris (am jgufebSi ar Sedis galis raionisa da kodoris xeobis<br />

mosaxleoba, romelic, principSi, calke jufs qmnis):<br />

• afxazeTSi kompaqturad macxovrebeli qarTvelebi da megrelebi,<br />

romlebic aq 100 welze metia cxovroben.<br />

• qarTvelebi, romlebic sxva erovnebebTan erTad imdenive xania<br />

cxovroben.<br />

• kompaqturad Casaxlebuli qarTvelebi, romlebic aq XX saukunis Sua<br />

xnidan cxovroben.<br />

• sxva erovnebebTan erTad macxovrebeli qarTvelebi, romlebic XX<br />

saukunis meore naxevarSi gadmosaxldnen.<br />

ZiriTadi yuradReba unda mieqces devnilTa pirveli jgufis dabrunebas.<br />

devnilTa mesame jgufis dabruneba iqneba yvelaze metad problemuri.<br />

rogorc Cans, devnilebis dabrunebisa da humanitaruli problemebis<br />

mogvarebis sakiTxebiT unda dakavdes sagangebo saerTaSoriso organo,<br />

romelic iqneba damoukidebeli dainteresebuli mxareebisagan. am mravalmxriv<br />

komisiaSi monawileoba unda miiRon gaeros, euTos, evrokavSiris, ruseTis,<br />

saqarTvelos, afxazeTisa da samxerT oseTis warmomadgenlebma.<br />

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