Intel Report
As the historic Fulcrum edges towards obsolescence, Alan Warnes reviews NATO’s existing MiG-29 fleets. Lockheed Martin and Saab also talk frankly about Slovakia’s controversial decision to replace its Russian fighters with the F-16V, not the Gripen.
Most of the former Warsaw Pact air forces operated the MiG-29 back in the 1990s, the time when Eastern Europe was dismantling its communist regimes.
Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania all flew Fulcrums in the air defence role, while, outside the alliance, Yugoslavia also operated the type.
The Fulcrum, long respected by NATO because of its superb aerodynamics, is a deadly proposition when armed with the Vympel R-73 (AA-11 Archer) short-range air-to-air missile (AAM). However, the basic MiG-29 is limited by its 7,716lb (3,500kg) fuel capacity, which limited flying time to 1hr 12mins.
When being used for basic fighter manoeuvres, endurance is considerably less. A 1,984lb (900kg) centreline tank improves range but at the expense of agility.
Regardless of the fighter’s limitations and increasing obsolescence, Bulgaria (15), Poland (24), Slovakia (12) and Serbia (10) still persevere with it, although only 50% or less are likely to be operational at any one time. Today the NATO Fulcrums are edging towards the end of their careers and Slovakia announced its decision to acquire the Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 on July 12. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Poland are now initiating competitions to find a successor to their MiGs.
Slovakia opts for F-16s
The Vzdušné sily Ozbrojených síl Slovenskej republiky (VzS OS SR, Air Force of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic) is set to acquire 12 F-16C Block 70s and two F-16D Block 70s after four years looking for a new fighter. The US design fought off the challenge of the Saab JAS 39C/D Gripen. According to Lockheed, a $US2.91bn letter of agreement (LOA) is expected to be signed by December.
At the recent Slovak International Air Fest (SIAF) 2018 held at Sliač air base – where the MiG-29s are stationed – AFM spoke to Michael N Kelley, the company’s F-16 Campaign Lead in Slovakia. “The Slovak F-16s will come off the production facility now being set up at Greenville in South Carolina and will be delivered 39 months after the deal is signed [around late 2022]. The USAF will put us on contract around six months after the LOA is signed, which should be by the end of the year.”
Kelley continued: “The first two aircraft, F-16Ds, will be handed over in the USA and are expected to go to Tucson ANGB, Arizona, for pilot and maintenance training.
The first ferry cell should arrive in Sliač during March/April 2023.”
The Block 70 includes the new Northrop Grumman AN/APG- 83 Scalable Agile Beam Radar, as well as upgraded displays and avionics suite. The newbuild Block 70s will have their service life extended to 12,000 hours compared with the 8,000 hours on current F-16 fleets.
The Slovak order for Block 70s is the second, after Bahrain. The Gulf state ordered 16 – the first is expected to roll off the Greenville line in December 2021.
The decision came as major blow to Saab. The company had hoped Slovakia would join the Czech Republic and Hungary as NATO Gripen operators. Part of Lockheed’s success might be due to the foothold it already has in Eastern Europe. Poland acquired 48 new F-16C/D Block 52s between 2006 and 2009 that work alongside the Polish Fulcrums, while Romania opted for 12 ex-Portuguese Air Force F-16AM/ BMs. Croatia has also selected 12 ex-Israeli Air Force F-16C/Ds – although no contract has yet been signed – to replace its MiG-21s. Slovakia ruled out a secondhand purchase, which was complex and might not yield deliveries until 2026. Additionally, Slovakia didn’t want to be left looking for another replacement after the second-hand aircraft ran out of useful life 15 years down the line. Slovakia wasn’t interested in acquiring the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon or Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, either.
It claimed the operational and tactical capabilities, as well as operational costs of these aircraft, far outweighed the needs of the armed forces.
Slovakia’s evaluation
For Saab, the sting in the tail of the Slovak decision was the publication of the fighter evaluation report.
The defence ministry’s report claims: “The JAS 39C/D has reached its peak of technical possibilities”, adding that “because Saab plans to launch serial production of the E/F version in the future, the C/D version is not subject to modernisation”.
Speaking exclusively to AFM, Saab’s Mats Thorbjörnsson, an experimental test pilot and part of Gripen Product Management, said he was “astonished” by the Slovak MoD’s reasoning. “It is not true at all.
“When it comes to the C/D we have an extensive development plan. Saab plans to keep the Gripen C relevant until 2050. The Swedish Air Force has made indications they will operate the C/D for many years. In fact, the development plan and road map were presented to the Slovak MoD in May – that’s why we were so surprised by the comment.” The Slovak defence ministry report also contends that:
“Compared to the F-16 Block 70/72, the JAS 39C/D has a lower weapon payload, lower fuel capacity, shorter tactical flight range, lower flight endurance, lower RoC [rate of climb] and significantly lower acceleration.”
It also adds: “the aircraft avionics (older generation radar, early warning system, and aircraft protection components) are older, meaning that they no longer meet the needs of current and future airborne operations.”
Thorbjörnsson responded: “We think we have a proven track record and the Gripen C/D is well up to comparison with the F-16 in all aspects. It has shown that many times in Czech and Hungarian operations and also at Red Flag. The Gripen’s performance matches the F-16 and exceeds it in some areas.”
Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s MiG-29s were delivered between June 1989 and September 1990. The 18 single-seaters and four dualseaters went through a communication, navigation and identification upgrade plus a service-life extension between August 2006 and June 2009.
Late last year the Bulgarian defence ministry announced that 15 aircraft were in active service, but only seven – including a two-seater – were kept serviceable. Are all operated by the 1/3 Iztrebitelna Avio Eskadrila (1/3 Fighter Aviation Squadron) at the 3. Iztrebitelna Aviobaza (IAB, 3rd Fighter Air Base) Graf Ignatievo.
A replacement is now urgently being sought under the two-phased Armed Forces Development Plan. The first phase, covering eight fighters, is budgeted at €768m, and led to a request for proposals (RFP) being issued by the Bulgarian government on June 29; all submissions are to be received by October 1. The jets should be delivered 24 months after the contract signature. In 2020- 21 a second phase will procure a further batch of eight fighters, after a similar selection process.
Bulgaria launched requests for information (RFI) to replace the MiG- 29s in 2011, 2013 and 2016. Saab offered the Gripen, Portugal was willing to sell some of its F-16s and Italy offered surplus Eurofighter Tranche 1s. Saab was the preferred option during the initial bidding process. However, in September last year a parliamentary committee recommended that the competition should be relaunched.
Although there had been two previous RFIs on which to base the shortlist, it was deemed too limited and new offers should include second-hand aircraft. According to reports in Bulgaria the defence ministry has called for bids to supply aircraft from the United States (F-16 Block 70), Portugal (F-16AM/BM), Israel (F-16C/D), Italy (Typhoon), Germany (Eurofighter), France (Rafale), Boeing (F/A-18) and Sweden (Gripen). In addition to the airframes, the budget includes the acquisition of role equipment, weapons and refurbishment/ improvement at Graf Ignatievo.
The report goes on to say that the Gripen’s lack of future modernisation potential played a big part in the government’s decision: “Airspace could [only] be protected to a limited extent, because one aircraft cannot address both the air and ground targets simultaneously.
Thorbjörnsson refuted this. “The Gripen was designed at the outset as a multi-role aircraft. Look at our competitors: the F-16, Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale all started life as air defence fighters and the air-to-ground capabilities were added later.” He continued: “It is extremely easy for the pilot to work with different assignments and go from one type of mission to another. That was the whole basis of the aircraft’s design!” Slovakia also judged the Gripen’s PS-05 radar inferior to the F-16’s active electronically scanned array (AESA) AN/APG-83.
Thorbjörnsson explained: “Saab are developing a new radar by step. Initially we have replaced the back end, which will enhance its performance significantly and we are working with gallium nitride [GaN] for the front end of the Gripen C/D.”
He continued: “The Slovak Air Force never confirmed an AESA requirement. AESA is a buzzword and has a lot of benefits, but it has nothing to do with radar performance and detection range or detecting low-RCS [radar cross-section] targets. We have introduced the Mk4 version of the PS-05 and radar performance is far beyond that of any other platform. What we want to do is introduce an AESA system and antenna without having to modify the aircraft extensively. We wanted to find the closest [thing] as possible to a plug-and-play solution.”
Slovak MiG boss
Lt Col Marián ‘Buker’ Bukovský commands Slovakia’s 1. taktická letka (1st Tactical Squadron) and has been flying the MiG-29 since 2000, notching up 2,000 hours. He’s an operational pilot, flying instructor, test pilot and display pilot and told AFM he flies around 100 hours per year.
Two MiG-29s accommodate the quick reaction alert (QRA) huts, on the northeast of the airfield, armed with R-60 (AA-8 Aphid) or R-73 (AA-11 Archer) AAMs.
While Slovakia has ten single-seaters and two dual-seaters, only around six are thought to be operational, including both two-seaters. The Fulcrums are expected to continue protecting Slovakia’s airspace for the next four to five years.
The report also claims that Saab couldn’t offer an automatic ground collision avoidance system (AGCAS). “This is nonsense” the test pilot said. “We introduced the AGCAS on the MS20 system – it has been operational with the Swedish Air Force for more than two years and, more recently, on Hungarian and Czech jets.”
The report illustrates how Saab, as a foreign vendor, is unable to include US smart weapons in its offer. Instead the customer has to go through a US acquisition process, adding extra cost. But, as Thorbjörnsson explained, “that is standard practice anyway”. Saab did come out on top when it came to the logistical package.
Lockheed’s Michael N Kelley told AFM: “The USAF gave a two-year proposal, but Gripen gave ten. We explained that we offered a twoyear sustainment set-up because there are a lot of unknowns, and if we had priced out the programme with those, it might have been expensive. A twoyear deal allows the customer to gain operational experience on the platform and then a much better deal two years in. That way the customer doesn’t pay too much and, more importantly, they are getting enough of what they need.”
AFM put Kelley’s explanation to Saab’s Krasimira Stoyanova, vice president, head of Central and Eastern Europe, who disagreed. “We consider it the other way around. Our ten-year commitment is very predictable, and this is a cost which is based on our experience with the Gripen system. The air force would be confident of the cost of the support over ten years. Under the F-16 two-year system, it is unclear what the cost will be over the next eight years – who says it won’t go up? It’s unpredictable from a budget perspective and our solution is fixed and full.” Slovakia initially wanted the aircraft to be operational next year, when the MiG support contract ends. According to Saab, the Gripen deal could have met that requirement, but the F-16s won’t enter operational service in 2023.
Slovakia’s Fulcrums
When Czechoslovakia split on January 1, 1993, the existing inventories were divided between the Czech Republic and Slovakia on a roughly 60:40 basis in favour of the former, reflecting the respective physical and population sizes of the two countries. However, there were two exceptions: the MiG-23 Flogger and MiG-29 Fulcrum inventories.
All 64 Floggers remained in Czech hands, but the Fulcrums were divided on an equal basis. Slovakia received MiG-29 serials 3709, 3911, 5113, 5515, 5817, 7501, 8003, 8605 and 9308 as well as three MiG- 29UBs: 1303, 4401 and 5304. In December 1993 they were joined by three new single-seat MiG-29s – 0619, 0820 and 0921 – as part of a Russian debt settlement. The same agreement led to another nine aircraft being delivered in 1995- 96: serials 2022, 2123, 6124, 6425, 6526, 6627, 6728, 6829 and 6930.
In 2005 a multi-million-dollar deal modernised the communications, navigation and identification systems of 12 jets, to bring them in line with NATO standards. Ten single-seaters (0619, 0921, 2123, 3709, 3911, 6124, 6425, 6526, 6627, 6728) and two MiG-29UBs (1303 and 5304) went through the overhaul and lifetime extension upgrade. They all emerged from the upgrade at LOT Trenčín redesignated as MiG-29AS and MiG-29UBS, respectively. Work was completed in February 2008. Today, around half of these are operated by the Mixed Wing ‘Otta Smika’ Sliač. Controversy surrounding the support of the Slovakian MiG-29s surfaced in early May, when Slovak Parliament Speaker Andrej Danko disclosed that the country was negotiating further Fulcrum-related contracts with Russia. Local media reported that Russia was providing maintenance services for the MiG- 29 fleet, worth up to €50m per year.
Defence ministry spokeswoman Danka Capáková admitted in May that Slovakia was paying RSK MiG €20m annually plus another €10m for other work. As a NATO member, this arrangement is highly unusual. The support contract with RSK MiG will finish next year, but it’s likely to be extended pending arrival of the F-16s.
Poland
Poland operates 24 MiG-29s – the biggest Fulcrum fleet in Europe. The first nine single-seaters were delivered brand new in 1989 and 1990. They were followed by nine ex-Czech Fulcrums, transferred in December 1995 and January 1996. They were joined by 16 former Luftwaffe MiG-29 singleseaters and three two-seaters that were subjected to an extensive life-extension programme and systems upgrade by the Wojskowe Zakłady Lotnicze Nr 2 (WZL 2, Military Aviation Works No 2) at Bydgoszcz in conjunction with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Lahav.
Poland had not lost a Fulcrum since the type was introduced to service, however, two accidents in the past eight months have led to the jets being grounded due to concerns with their ejection seats (the Su-22 Fitters have also temporarily stopped flying). The most recent accident occurred close to Malbork air base on July 6 and claimed the life of the experienced pilot, who had accumulated 500 hours on the MiG-29. His body was found close to the wreckage. In the other crash last December 18, the pilot did not eject but survived the crash after the aircraft plunged into a forest.
The Polish defence ministry has now initiated Project Harpia, which is the requirement for a new multi-role combat aircraft to replace the MiG- 29s and Su-22s. Several companies are said to have taken part in the request for information process, including Lockheed Martin (F-16 Block 70), Saab (Gripen) and Eurofighter.
